Dr. Dennis Foster - W.A. Franke College of Business

Grand CanyonTransportation Planning:

A Case Study in Public Choice Theory

Welcome to our rideThe GMP as an exercise in “scientific management”

The public rationale

Is this a market failure?

Can promises be kept?

The forced rider problem

Elitism

Pathological politics

An exercise in inefficiency

What is to be done?

Scientific Management, the General Scientific Management, the General Management Plan and a transit planManagement Plan and a transit plan

1993 – Draft General Management Plan

New parking lots & voluntary shuttle in/out of park.

1995 – Final GMP

1997 – Mather Point Environmental Assessment

Remove most of parking inside the park.

All day use visitors to shuttle into the park.

1999 – Request for Proposals

Light rail as chosen outcome.

Flagstaff

Page & Lake Powell

Las Vegas

Grand Canyon

The Grand Canyon area

Principal visitation areas of Grand Canyon.South Rim – Desert View to Hermits Rest

South Rim Village area –South Kaibab Trail to Bright Angel Trail.

South Rim –•Light rail transit network.•Buses to link rim pts.•Remove interior parking.•Build 3,041 space lot in Tusayan.

Redesign of Mather Point as transit terminus.

Redesign of main hotel area of South Rim Village.

Rational by the NPSRational by the NPS

Traffic congestion as a market failure.

Insufficient parking as a market failure.

Visitor orientation can be better managed.

Visitors can benefit from more public facilities and fewer commercial facilities.

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –Is this really a market failure?Is this really a market failure?

Is this a public good?

Is this a market failure?

Are there externalities? Why?

Are there significant special interests here?

What rent-seeking behavior is expected?

Is the NPS able to adequately coordinate economic activity?

What is the dimension of the problem?What is the dimension of the problem?

“6,000 cars vying for 3,000 spaces.”

Grand Canyon stats:-- 1900 mi2; village = 2 mi2.-- Too much for 4.5 million visitors?-- 25% arrive by bus/train.

NAU – 9,000 parking spaces (+/-)

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –Is this really a market failure?Is this really a market failure?

Average Daily Traffic - 1999 (vehicles) & "Capacity"

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Octob

er

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

1999 "Capacity"

Parking in the South Rim Village area.

Will congestion be lessened?Will congestion be lessened?

Visitors will now arrive on trains.

Visitors will arrive in groups at Mather Point.

Peak use of the system is likely toresemble metropolitan rush hoursubway use.

Congestion is rearranged and likely increased.

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –Can promises be kept?Can promises be kept?

Actual & Projected Visitation

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,00019

87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.8% Visitation growth 1.7% Visitation growth 2.75% Visitation growth

Actual 2011

Will visitors find the quality of their visit Will visitors find the quality of their visit has improved with the light rail?has improved with the light rail?

Waiting in inclement weather.Waiting due to crowded trains/buses.Paying for taxis during off-peak times.Riding with backpackers.Keeping parties together.Getting strollers/bikes on board.Carrying cameras, purchases.

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –Can promises be kept?Can promises be kept?

All the off-peak riders.

By season and by time of day.

Visitors along the East Rim Drive must pay.

“[F]olks who don’t want to use masstransit can bike or walk into the park.”

Do visitors need a period of transition?

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –The forced rider problem – literally!The forced rider problem – literally!

““Visitors who have driven hours Visitors who have driven hours

to get to the park should be to get to the park should be

allowed allowed a period of transitiona period of transition

before viewing the great before viewing the great

natural spectacle of the Grand natural spectacle of the Grand

Canyon.”Canyon.”

““Seeing the Grand Canyon out Seeing the Grand Canyon out

the windshield of a car at the windshield of a car at

Mather Point, however does not Mather Point, however does not

provide any transition period.”provide any transition period.”

Public Choice Critique – ElitismPublic Choice Critique – Elitism

““No impression of the place is more No impression of the place is more constantly invoked than the constantly invoked than the

abruptness of its vision…The contrast abruptness of its vision…The contrast with other landscapes is profound.”with other landscapes is profound.”

--Stephen J. Pyne; How the Canyon Became Grand

Who supports this? GC Railway!

Who supports this? Various eco groups!

Who supports this? Park Service planners!

The public supports this. Or do they?newspaper headlines…newspaper headlines…

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –Pathological politicsPathological politics

“New poll supports Canyon light rail”--AZ Daily Sun, 3/6/97

“Arizonans strongly prefer replacing automobile traffic with mass transit in

Grand Canyon National Park.”--SRL press release, 3/6/97

--The survey question:

“To protect Grand Canyon National Park, by the year 2000 officials are proposing that no cars be allowed into the Park except for people staying at Park hotels. Automobile traffic will be replaced by mass transit. Do you agree or disagree with the proposal . . .”

Cost: $70 mill., $100 mill., $200 mill.

Gain = 1600 net parking spaces.

Note: More parking is unavoidable, train isn’t.

What if the rail employees unionize?

“A convenient, attractive, and energy-efficient transit system would serve the developed area.”

Public Choice Critique –Public Choice Critique –An exercise in inefficiencyAn exercise in inefficiency

What is to be done?A Big Proposal

Remove the Villagearea from NPSjurisdiction !

Allow CoconinoCounty to regulate !

Amounts to some 6 to 8 square miles !

What is to be done?A Moderate Proposal

Run a train from Tusayan to the Village.

Utilize the airport for increased parking.

How much work would this take...?

…None; it has already been approved.

What is to be done?A Small Proposal

Develop Mather Point parking.

Leave Village parking intact.

Improve infrastructure.

Improve existing transit system.

• Cost: approx. $20 million.• Raise parking to 7,000 vehicles.

Aftermath: Aftermath: Like Osama bin Laden, the train is Like Osama bin Laden, the train is

deaddeadCongressional actions

No $ for the train.Must reconsider using buses.

2008 – South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan Environmental Assessment

Build parking at new visitor center!Leave parking in the village!Add voluntary shuttle to Tusayan!

New Visitors’ Center & Parking LotsNew Visitors’ Center & Parking Lots

Dr. Dennis Foster - W.A. Franke College of Business

Grand CanyonTransportation Planning:

A Case Study in Public Choice Theory