Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International ConsultantContact: averchenkova@yahoo.com

Scientific and political context for climate change

negotiations

Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to

Copenhagen

Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations

Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun

UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations"

Source: IPCC

Hurricane Katrina 2005

Melting glaciers

Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)

… Share in the current emissionsAustralia 1.1%

Brazil 1.1%Spain 1.1%

Iran 1.5%

Indonesia 1.3%

South Africa 1.5%

Mexico 1.5%Korea 1.6%

China 17.3%

USA 20.9%

Japan 4.3%

Germany 2.8%

Canada 2.2%

UK 2%France 1.3%

Italy 1.6%

Nigeria 0.4%Poland 1.1%

Russia 5.3%

India 4.6%

Latin America and Carribean 4.8%

EU 8.8%

G8 nations about 45%

Source: CDIAC 2007

… per capita emissions

USA Canada Australia Russia Japan S. Africa Europe France World Latin Indonesia Nigeria Kenya

Germany Spain Iran China America Brazil India

UK Poland Mexico Caribbean

S. KoreaSource: CDIAC 2007

Scientific and political context for climate change

negotiations

Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to

Copenhagen

Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations

Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun

UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations

1990, 1992: FAR0.3 oC ↑

1995: SAR

2001: TAR1.4-5.8oC ↑

2007: AR41.1-6.4oC ↑

2014: AR5

1992: Framework Convention on CC

1994: Convention enters into force

1997: Kyoto Protocol

2001: Marrakesh Accords* Kyoto Protocol “rules”* Adaptation on table

2005: Kyoto Protocol enters into force

2007: Bali Road Map

2009: COP-15 Copenhagen

Science (IPCC) Politics (UNFCCC)

“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”

Industrialised countries & Economies in Transition (EITs)

• Adopt policies and measures with aim of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels

• EITs have “flexibility” in commitments

Annex I

Industrialised countries

• Provide financial resources to enable developing countries

• Promote technology transfer to EITs and non-Annex I Parties

Annex II

Developing countries

• No quantitative obligations

• Least Developed Countries given special consideration

Non-Annex I

Adopted at the 1997 UNFCCC Conference of Parties 3 (COP3) in Kyoto, Japan, on December 11, 1997

Defines a target for GHG emission reductions for the period between 2008 and 2012 of 5.2% compared to 1990 levels

Established international market-based mechanisms to meet the targets

184 signatory states

Bali Road Map (2007) – Breakthrough in the mindset

• Shared understanding for the necessity of common efforts, both by developed and developing countries

• Climate change is linked to economic growth and sustainable development goals and needs

• Actions fall across a variety of economic sectors

• Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into force of future regime by 2012

Scientific and political context for climate change

negotiations

Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to

Copenhagen

Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations

Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun

UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations

Adaptation

Mitigation

Global Action

Sustainable Development Objectives

Finance

Mitigation Adaptation

Technology

Building Blocks

Bali Action Plan launched 2007

•4 building blocks • REDD • shared vision•Mitigation actions from developing countries•Mitigation commitments from developed countries

• new Subsidiary Body (AWG-LCA)

Kyoto Protocol track launched 2005

•New emission reduction targets, ranges (450 ppm?)•Means to achieve targets (CDM, JI, ET, other?)

• new Subsidiary Body (AWG-KP)

Long-term global goal is most contentious aspect

• Level of reductions to be achieved world-wide• No agreement on the year, scale, criteria or legal nature• Seen by some as defining burden-sharing• Provides key framework for mitigation action and

financial/technical support

Shared vision: Overview Shared vision: Overview

• Provides context for the global action • Message of renewed political will• Outlines the key principles • Sets the objectives• Overall preamble to the agreement

• Actions by developing countries: What form will

they take? How will they be measured, reported,

verified?

• How to match mitigation actions by developing

countries with support from developed countries

• Level of ambition from developed countries: what

they are committing to, by when, and how

• Comparability of efforts

• Market-based mechanisms

Mitigation: MainMitigation: Main issuesissues

Mitigation action/commitments by developed countries (KP&LCA)

Developing country actions (NAMAs)

Approaches to address emissions from deforestation (REDD+)

Sectoral approaches

Enhancing the cost-effectiveness, incl. role of markets

Impacts of response measures

Structure of negotiations on mitigationStructure of negotiations on mitigation

• Measurable Actions• Reportable MRV Commitments• Verifiable Support

Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) is at the core

Level and type of action or commitment

National schedules, policies and measures Economy-wide vs. sectoral goals; Base year and gases to be covered Absolute vs. intensity reduction

Means of implementation

Accounting for land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) Use of market mechanisms and supplementarity limits

Comparability of efforts

Compliance system

MRV Penalties

Nationally appropriate

In the context of sustainable development

Supported and enabled by:

◦ Technology, financing and capacity-building

In a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner (MRV)

Resulting in reduction in the growth of emissions

• Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation

Adaptation Adaptation

• Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001

• Adaptation has to be the second leg of a Copenhagen agreement, equal in importance to mitigation

• Financial needs related to adaptation are in the order of hundred billions annually

• Recognition that designated financial mechanism will be required for adaptation action

Key issues under AdaptationKey issues under Adaptation

Key challenges

1. What actions should be taken?

National planning, improving resilience

Building up/spreading knowledge base, i.e.

vulnerability assessments, etc.

Risk assessment, management and insurance

Implementation of adaptation programmes and

projects

2. How to generate finance for adaptation

3. How to match local needs with support, access

to finance

4. Institutional frameworks for adaptation,

governance

TechnologyTechnology• Key for supporting mitigation and adaptation

• Developed countries to support technology transfer (TT) to developing countries

• Removal of barriers to promoting TT including:

• Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of technologies

• Co-operation on research and development

• Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology co-operation

• Financing• Intellectual property rights• Tariffs and non-tariffs• Capacity

Generation of new and additional, adequate, predictable & sustainable funding, including:

Innovative sources for adaptation

Mobilization of public and private sector finance

Access to finance, including:

Improved access to existing financial resources

Positive incentives to implement mitigation, adaptation, CB& TT

Mechanisms for matching needs with support

Institutional arrangements for finance and investment

FinanceFinance

Scientific and political context for climate change

negotiations

Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to

Copenhagen

Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations

Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun

UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations

119 Heads of State

45000 participants

28

No comprehensive UN agreement formally adopted on the future framework

Copenhagen Accord negotiated by 30 Heads of State, representing 80% of GHGs of the world

Political declaration

‘Noted’ by the UNFCCC process, no formal legal standing

Countries invited to communicate their support /sign on

31 January 2010- deadline for communicating targets and mitigation actions

A set of other decisions, including on CDM reforms

29

Target to keep global temperature below 2oC Deep cuts in global GHGs with peaking asap, longer in developing

countries

AI Parties commit to implement quantified economy-wide

emissions targets for 2020 Kyoto Parties to strengthen implementation of the Protocol

ER and Financing to be MRVed

Non-AI Parties will implement mitigation actions Subject to domestic MRV and reporting through national

communications every 2 years

Supported actions are subject to international MRV and

recording in the registry

Immediate establishment of a REDD-plus mechanism

30

Collective commitment by developed countries on finance: to provide USD 30 bln in 2012-2012

to mobilize USD 100 bln/year by 2020 Variety of sources

balanced allocation to mitigation and adaptation

significant portion to go through Copenhagen Green Climate Fund

Copenhagen Green Climate Fund to be established

High Level Panel on finance to study sources of revenue

Technology Mechanism to accelerate TD and TT is established Guided by country-driven approach

To support action on adaptation and mitigation

Review of implementation of the Accord by 2015, also in relation to

1.5C scenario

31

Emission reduction Base year On 1990 Scale

Australia - 5% up to -15 / 25% 2000 - 3.89- 24.1%Belarus - 5 -10% 1990Canada - 17% 2005 +

0.25%Croatia - 5% 1990EU-27 - 20 / 30% 1990Kazakhstan - 15% 1992 N/AJapan - 25% 1990Liechtenstein - 20 / 30% 1990New Zealand - 10 - 20 % 1990Norway - - 30 - 40% 1990Russian Fed. - 15 - 25% 1990USA - 17% 2005 - 3.67%

32

Emission reduction Reference Brazil -36.1 – 38.9% N/A

China - 40 – 45% (carbon intensity) to 2005

India - 25 – 30% (emissions intensity) to 2005

Indonesia - 26 – 41% N/A

Mexico - 30% below BAU

South Africa - 34% below BAU

South Korea - 30% below BAU

Maldives Carbon neutrality by 2020

Issue Progress achieved in Copenhagen Outstanding issues

Shared vision -Political commitment-Temperature goal -Assessment of implementation in 2015

-Global goal for emission reduction-The peaking year for global emissions

Mitigation by developed countries

-Bottom up pledges by Annex I -Basis for advancing negotiations

-Joint target for Annex I countries-Legal nature of targets/ compliance-Dealing with AAU surpluses

Mitigation actions by developing countries (NAMAs)

-Most political issues on NAMA resolved-Guidance on the nature of actions-Principles for MRV of NAMA-Registry for matching NAMAs with support-Pledges for NAMA made

-Types of actions eligible for support-Procedure for matching NAMA with support -MRV guidelines-Eligibility for carbon crediting -CDM & NAMAs

REDD-plus -Establishment of REDD-plus mechanism-COP text almost ready -Principles for implementation -Actions that host countries should undertake -Commitment on finance

-Role for market finance- Sub-national measures-Governance arrangements-Amount of financing to be allocated, although USD 3.5bln pledged as initial support over the next 2 years

Action on adaptation -Principles for adaptation action-List of priority activities -Enhancement of regional cooperation -Political commitment to launch framework and provide finance

-Institutional arrangements -Loss and damage

Financing and its governance

- Amount of finance to be provided - Suggestion on institutional arrangements (Copenhagen Green Fund and High-Level panel on sources)

-Decision on institutional arrangements -Ensuring predictability/ generation of funds-Share of financing for various focus areas

Technology development and transfer

-Most issues agreed-Mechanism to be established-List of eligible activities

.

- IPRs-Governance, incl. full mandate, composition and modalities for the Technology Executive Committee and the Climate Technology Centre

2-6 Aug: AWG-KP 13 & AWG-LCA 11◦ Discussion of the new LCA text issued by the

Chair in June in Bonn

◦ In-session workshop on AI aggregate and individual emission reductions

Tbc: AGW-KP 14 & AWG-LCA 12 in China Several infornal high-level consultations 29 Nov-10 Dec: COP16 and CMP6 in Cancun

◦ Aim to adopt a set of COP&CMP decisions on various elements of the future framework

Scientific and political context for climate change

negotiations

Overview of the negotiations : from Kyoto to

Copenhagen

Main issues in the post-2012 negotiations

Outcomes of Copenhagen and outlook to Cancun

UNFCCC secretariat in supporting the negotiations

Independent body of international civil servants About 400 staff Guided by the Bureau of the  COP, and gets

specific requests from COP, CMP and the SBs Every 2 years the COP adopts a budget, setting

out the main tasks and the funding needed The budget is funded by contributions from

Parties based on the UN scale of assessment

Make practical arrangements for the negotiations

Monitor implementation of the commitments through collection, analysis and review of data by Parties

Assist Parties in implementing their commitments

Substantive technical support to the negotiations

Maintain registries for the issuance of carbon credits and for the assigned amounts of emissions of Parties

Support to the compliance regime of the KP

Coordinate with other international bodies

Preparation of official documents for the

negotiations between and during sessions

Coordination of in-depth reviews of Annex I

national communications

Compilation of GHG inventory data

Logistical issues◦ Registration for the sessions

◦ Application for hosting a side event

◦ Participation in in-session and intersessional workshops

Submissions to the UNFCCC◦ View on particular issue, in response to request for views

◦ GHG inventories, national communications, NAPAs, NAMAs, etc.

◦ Ad hoc expression of views

Participation in the negotiations during the sessions◦ Getting the documents by the Chair during the informals

◦ Textual proposals during the sessions (if requested by the Chair)

◦ Oral discussions in case of strong position on particular issue

Official correspondence◦ Registration through the focal points

◦ Official submissions by country through the national focal point

To e-mail: secretariat@unfccc.int

During the sessions◦ Logistics to the appropriate contact as shown in the

Daily programme

◦ Substantive issues related to the negotiations: Responsible staff for the corresponding issue-see Daily Programme, section on status of negotiations