D.P. Cilliers - NWU-IR .2018-03-05 · Kearsley's modeified model of urban land use 21 Figure 2.12

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Text of D.P. Cilliers - NWU-IR .2018-03-05 · Kearsley's modeified model of urban land use 21 Figure 2.12

  • The development and use of a land-use suitability

    model in spatial planning in South Africa

    D.P. Cilliers

    Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree

    Magister Artium et Scientiae (Planning)

    at the Potchefstroom Campus of the North-West University

    ..

    Supervisor: Dr J.E. Drewes

    May 2010 i!a "OJ

  • ExpreSSlon of thanks

    A special word of thanks to:

    My redeemer Jesus Christ, for there is only ONE way.

    My supervisor, Dr Ernst Drewes, for his guidance and inputs throughout the study.

    Prof Leon van Rensburg and the School for Environmental Sciences and Development,

    Potchefstroom Campus, for financial and infrastructural support

    Mr. Theuns de Klerk, Prof Luke Sandham and Prof Francois Retief for their valuable

    inputs.

    My parents and siblings for their support and encouragement.

    My best friend and fiancee, Charlotte for her unconditional support and understanding.

    - i

  • The development and use of a land-use sultabllity model in spatial planning in South Africa

    Table of Contents

    Expression of thanks

    Table of contents

    List of tables

    List of figures

    Abstract

    Opsomming

    Preface

    1.2. Research aims and objectives

    1.3. Basic hypothesis/central theoretical statement

    1.4. Format of study and research methods

    1.4.1. Literature study

    1.4.2. Article 1: A GIS-based approach for visualising urban growth

    1.4.3. Article 2: Land-use suitability modelling as a framework for spatial planning in Tlokwe

    Local Municipality, North West, South Africa

    2.2. The development of central places

    2.3. Forces that influence urban morphology

    2.4. Models of urban structure

    2.4.1. Descriptive Frameworks

    2.4.1.1. Classic descriptive models

    2.4.1.1 (a). Concentric zone model

    2.4.1.1 (b). Sector model

    2.4.1.1 (c). Multiple nuclei model

    2.4.1.2. Modified descriptive models

    2.4.1.2 (a). Mann's model of the urban structure

    2.4.1.2 (b). Kearsley's modified Burgess model

    2.4.1.2 (c). Vance's urban-realms model

    2.4.1.2 (d). White's model of the twenty first century city

    2.4.1.2 (e). Davies' apartheid city model

    2.4.1.2 (f). Simon's modernized apartheid city model

    2.4.2. Explanatory framework

    2.4.2.1. The land value model or bid-rent theory

    2.4.2.1. Alonso's theory of land-use

    2.5. Urban sprawl

    2.7. The situation in South Africa

    ii

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  • 2.8. The urban future - 32

    2.9. Conclusion - 32

    36

    3.2. Sustainable Development 36

    3.2.1. Introduction - 36

    3.2.2. Agenda 21 38

    3.2.3. Sustainable cities - 40

    3.2.3.1. Social Development - 41

    3.2.3.2. Improving Urban Economies - 41

    3.2.3.3. Sustainable Land-use and Environmental Sustainability - 42

    3.3. Urban Ecology - 43

    3.3.1. What is Urban Ecology? - 43

    3.3.2. Different Perspectives - 44

    3.3.3. The Role of Urban Ecology in Spatial Planning - 45

    3.4. Sustainable Development: The South African Situation - 46

    3.5. Conclusion - 46

    4.1. Introduction

    4.2. The history of planning law - 51

    4.3. The situation in South African planning law - 51

    4.4. Legislation - 52

    4.4.1. The constitution of the Republic of South Africa - 52

    4.4.2. The Development Facilitation Act (Act 67 of 1995) - 53

    4.4.3. The National Environmental Management Act (Act 107 of 1998) - 54

    4.4.4. The Municipal Systems Act (Act 32 of 2000) - 55

    4.4.5. The Local Government: Municipal Planning and Performance Regulations (2001) - 57

    4.4.6. Land Use Management Bill (2006/2008) 58

    4.5. Policy 58

    4.5.1. The White Paper on Local Government (1998) 58

    4.5.2. The White Paper on Spatial Planning and Land-use Management (2001) - 59

    4.6. Relevance of policy and legislation on SDFs - 61

    4.7. Conclusion 65

    Chapter 5 -"Spatial Modelling ~~6_ ._-_..._------- ..._.__. ~~"iiifIiII 5.1. Introduction - 68

    5.2. Multi-criteria analysis and land-use suitability modelling - 68

    5.2.1. Boolean logic -70

    5.2.2. Weighted overlay - 71

    -735.2.3. Fuzzy logic

    -735.3. Spatial modelling

  • The development and use of a land-use suitability model in spatial planning in South Africa

    5.4. The Land-use Conflict Identification Strategy

    5.5. Conclusion

    Abstract

    Introduction

    Urban growth

    Spatial modelling

    Multi-criteria analysis and land-use suitability modelling

    Spatial modelling

    The land-use conflict identification strategy (LUCIS)

    Study area

    Data management

    Methodology

    Goals and objectives for modelling

    The process

    Phase one

    Step 1) Data gathering and reclassification

    Step 2) Inputs from professionals for urban layers

    Step 3) Overlay analysis

    Step 4) Conflicts analyzed

    Phase two

    Step 1) Data

    Step 2) Mask creation

    Step 3) Future

    Step 4) 2030 grovvth scenario

    Results

    Conclusions and future research priorities

    Acknowledgements

    Abstract

    1. Introduction

    2. Sustainable development

    3. Spatial planning in South Africa

    4. Study area

    5. Spatial modelling

    6. The use and effectiveness of spatial modelling in spatial planning

    . 6.1. Land-use suitability analysis

    6.2. Land-use conflict analysis and final land-use allocation

    6.3. Urban growth modelling and validation

    74

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    -114 -115

    117 - 119

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  • The development and use of a land-use suitability model in spatial planning in South Africa

    6.4. Comparison of results to existing spatial plans - 124

    7. Conclusion and recommendations - 125

    8.2. Synthesis -139

    8.3. Conclusion and Recommendations 141

    Map 1 - Tlokwe local municipality locality map -143

    Map 2 - Agricultural preference map -144 Map 3 Conservation preference map 145

    Map 4 Urban preference result -146

    Map 5 Areas of potential land-use conflict -147

    Map 6 - Final land-use allocation - 148

    Map 7 - Growth scenario - Potchefstroom in 2030 - 149

    Map 8 - Comparison between SDF and analysis results -150

    List of Table.s

    olicy and legislation

    and objectives for the

    Table 2. Maize potential rankings for Potchefstroom - 93

    Table 3. CSA's and ESA's ratings - 93

    . Table 4. Urban input layers - 94

    Table 2. Overlay procedure and datasets

    - 139

    List of Figures

    - 8

    Figure 2.2. The range and threshold of a commodity -10

    Figure 2.3. Complementary regions of central places - 11

  • The development and use of a land-use suitability model in spatial planning in South Afrioa

    Figure 2.4. The Burgess concentric zone model -15

    Figure 2.5. The Hoyt sector model -17

    Figure 2.6. The Harris and Ullman multiple nuclei model 18

    Figure 2.9. Vance's urban realms model - 21

    Figure 2.10. White's model of the twenty-first century city - 22

    Figure 2.11. The Apartheid city model - 24

    Figure 2.13. Bid-rent curves -27

    Figure 2.7. Mann's model of the urban structure 20

    Figure 2.8. Kearsley's modeified model of urban land use 21

    Figure 2.12. The modernized apartheid city model 25

    raster structures

    Figure 5.2. Different resolutions in raster data

    Figure 5.3. Boolean logic overlay procedure 71

    Figure 5.4. Weighted overlay -72

    Figure 5.5. Rating criteria -72

    Figure 5.6. Boolean classification vs. fuzzy classification -73

    Figure 2. Potchefstroom locality map 105

    Figure 3. The analysis procedure -106

    Figure 4. Overlay analysis for determining land-use conflicts - 107

    Figure 5. Agriculture preference - 108

    Figure 9. Final land-use suitability and allocation - 110

    Figure 10. 2030 Urban growth scenario - 111

    Figure 6. Conservation preference 108

    Figure 7. Urban preference 108

    Figure 8. Land-use conflict scenario 109

    - 131

    Figure 2. Potchefstroom locality map 132

    Figure 3. Analysis process -133

    Figure 4. Weighted overlay procedure -134

    Figure 5. Initial land-use suitability results indicating possible land-use conflicts - 135

    Figure 7. 2030 Urban growth scenario for Potchefstroom urban area - 136

    Figure 8. Potchefstroom SDF - 137

    Figure 9. Comparison between SDF and analysis results: newly delineated urban edge and -138

    priority nodes

    Figure 6. Final land-use suitability result (conflicts resolved) 135

  • The development and use of a land-use suitablltty model in spatial planning

    Abstract

    The United Nations (UN, 2006) predicts that 61 % of the world population (approximately 4.9 billion

    people) will be living in urban settlemen