Dow Jones Pea Outlook2013[1]

8/13/2019 Dow Jones Pea Outlook2013[1]

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At Top Tier Capital Partners, we believe the fundamentals of theventure capital industry are strong heading into 2013. Althoughthe industry experienced some setbacks in 2012 – such as thepost-IPO performance of some large social media stocks – webelieve overall that the three key elements of a successful venturecapital environment are in place.

Innovation. We see several significant technology trends drivingfundamental innovation and creating a new set of market-leadingcompanies. These include a move toward cloud computing; theexplosion of smartphones and accompanying mobile applications;the rise of social networking technologies inside big businesses; theneed for more cost cutting in health care; and the development ofnew energy-efficiency innovations in the clean-technology sector.

Underlying many of these trends is a shift from consumer towardenterprise-IT innovation. Over the past several years, many notable,VC-backed technologies catered to the consumer, including socialnetworking, gaming and new forms of e-commerce, such as “dailydeals” and monthly-subscription websites. But as we move into2013, we see stepped-up interest and investment in the enterprise,particularly cloud, “big data,” mobile and security.

All these sectors could see potentially explosive growth. Themobile market is particularly attractive: Today, there are aboutone billion smartphone users globally, but five billion mobilephone users. This indicates the huge potential for growth inmobile applications, mobile commerce and personal and businessproductivity tools as users upgrade their devices.

In the health-care sector, spending is expected to grow more than 6%annually through 2020. By then, the U.S. health-care industry will be a$4.5 trillion market and make up 19% of gross domestic product,creating more pressure to reduce health-care costs with innovativenew products and services1. Venture capitalists typically have focusedon biotechnology and new drug development, but they are alsofunding new medical devices, equipment and services, especiallythose that reduce costs and improve the quality of care. VCs also have

changed their strategies in clean-technology investing, now focusingon companies with capital-efficient business models that have astrong path to exit. The year 2013 may see several clean-techbusinesses seek liquidity in the public markets, which, if successful,would reinvigorate this area of investing.

Capital. Currently, industry capital flows are back to more-normallevels compared with those in the dot-com boom. And less capitalmeans better returns. Through the end of the third quarter of2012, U.S. venture capital firms raised $16.2 billion for 142separate funds. The amount raised is up about 31% comparedwith 2011, but the number of funds is down by 13%2. We expect asimilar fundraising environment in 2013 as capital getsconcentrated with fewer and fewer managers.

Importantly, the venture industry has right-sized, with the numbof firms actively making investments decreasing to less than 50today from about 2,000 a decade ago. At the same time, there habeen a rise in angel and seed activity, and we expect that tocontinue. Recently, there has been discussion in the press about “Series A crunch,” and whether many of the new crop of seed-funded companies will graduate to receive Series A preferredstock rounds of institutional financing. Our expectation is thatmany of these small companies will not cross the chasm to SeriA, which is not surprising as this historically has been the case many seed-stage projects. The difference today is that there aremany more seed-only funds in the market, making the problemseem more significant.

Liquidity. A robust exit environment delivers returns forinvestors and fuels the continuing cycle of innovation,investment and liquidity. We saw 2012 as a good year for initpublic offerings. Through the third quarter, 40 U.S. venture-backed companies went public, raising a total of $20 billion.The blockbuster Facebook Inc. IPO made up most of thisvolume. The National Venture Capital Association reported 2venture-backed companies in registration as of the end of thethird quarter3. Notably, this number does not includeconfidential IPO filings under the JOBS Act, so the number filings may be much larger.

Returns for companies already public have generally improvedsince 2010. Despite some disappointment in the after-marketperformance of Facebook, Zynga Inc. and Groupon Inc., investowho got into those companies early still realized significantreturns. At the same time, the IPOs of many enterprise-focused companies have produced better-than-expected gains. Enterpriscompanies such as Palo Alto Networks Inc., Splunk Inc., WorkdInc. and ServiceNow Inc., for example, have all performed wellMoreover, the large cash balances held by major enterprise-techacquirers such as Microsoft Corp., Google Inc., InternationalBusiness Machines Inc., Cisco Systems Inc. and VMware Inc. ahelping drive a fairly robust enterprise-M&A market as well.

Venture remains a complicated, risky business. But it’s alwaysbeen a sector of high risks and potentially outsized returns. Weremain confident that savvy venture capital investors, partneringwith the most innovative and accomplished entrepreneurs, cancontinue to turn profits in 2013 and beyond.

David York and Lisa Edgar are managing directors at Top TierCapital Partners, a San Francisco fund-of-funds manager focusingon venture capital. Mr. York is chief executive of the firm.

Sponsored Article

Venture Capital 2013 Outlook:

Three Factors That Make Us OptimisticBy David York and Lisa Edgar of Top Tier Capital Partners

1Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – National Health Expenditure Projections – 2011-20212National Venture Capital Association, Q3 2012 Venture Capital Fundraising Report3National Venture Capital Association, Q3 2012 Venture-Backed Exits Report


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Securities transactions in the US are e ff ected through CP Cogent Securities, LP, a broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. Securities transactions in theEuropean Union, European Economic Area and Switzerland are e ff ected through Cogent Partners Europe, LLP an entity authorized and regulated by the FinancialServices Authority in the United Kingdom.

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(((60*5'.789"+7.'+$60*:

Global Presence. Local Knowledge.

As a market pioneer and a global leader in secondary market investment banking,Cogent Partners has successfully advised on more than $65 billion of private equitysecondaries since 2001.

Our experience and worldwide presence give us a superior insight and perspectiveinto the unique elements of every transaction. We leverage this knowledge toprovide independent and unbiased advice to our clients – wherever they are.


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T OP T I ER

Top Tier Capital Partners600 Montgomery Street, Suite 480

San Francisco, CA 94111Phone: +415 835 7500

www.ttcp.com

Top Tier Capital Partners is an asset management firm managingventure capital-focused funds of funds and co- investment opportunities.

Formerly known as Paul Capital Investments, Top Tier manages

more than $2 billion in cumulative investor commitments.

Lisa Edgar Philip Paul Dan Townsend David YorkJessica Archibald Garth Timoll

Documents

Dow Jones Pea Outlook2013[1]