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Douglas Burn, Martin Robards, Jerry Galt, Aaron Poe, Renn Hanson, Ben Matheson
OnaBadDay
2
UnimakPass
BuldirIsland
TheNorthernGreatCircleRoute
3
TheSelendangAyu
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TheSelendangAyu
5
VesselTraffic–HeatMap
LargeVesselTraffic2011-2012
11
• Moretrafficin2012(UnimakPass:4,851vs.4,014)• BeringSeatrafficmostlywestbound(2/3)• Southernroutetrafficmostlyeastbound(2/3)
AllDataandResultsHaveBeenReviewedbyBorderCollie
12
ResourcesatRisk
13
StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/
StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithExisLngRoutes
14
StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/
StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithExisLngRoutes
7,144
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InternaLonalMariLmeOrganizaLon,AreastobeAvoided(ATBAs)
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StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/
StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithSuggestedRoutes
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~21%ReducRonInExposure/RisktoStellerSeaLions
StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/
StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithSuggestedRoutes
7,144
3,380
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NorthernseaoKerdatafromDoroffetal.(2003)
NorthernSeaOSerSighLngs
~22%ReducRonInExposure/Risk
toNorthernSeaOKers
NorthernseaoKerdatafromDoroffetal.(2003)
NorthernSeaOSerswithSuggestedRoutes
1,332
421
AretheATBAsEffecLve?
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November2015December2015January2016February2016March2016April2016
Source:hKp://havbase.no/havbase_arkRs
VesselDriVSimulaLon
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SimulaLonModelParameters
4MajorRoutes
21ReleaseSites
4Seasons
250RandomStarts
40Pseudo-ships
3.36MDri`Trajectories
=
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• GNOMEModel–GeneralNOAAOperaRonalEnvironment• GenWest–configuraRonforcontainership• Inputwindandcurrentdatafromworkdoneonthedispersal
ofJapantsunamimarinedebris~3yearRmeseries
TheGNOMEModel–HowitWorks
TimeStep:0TimeStep:1TimeStep:2
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VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterSimulaLon1
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VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterSimulaLon1
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VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterEnsemble
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VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterEnsemble
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BeachingProbabilityOverTime–Route3
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BeachingProbabilityOverTime–Route4
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ProposedProject–RiskContours
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Let’sAvoidAnotherBadDay
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QuesLons?
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