Don Blackmore

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Asian Development Bank

River Basin Management

Don Blackmore

| October

2010

The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the

data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily beconsistent with ADB official terms.



The Basins – Murray‐Darling / Africa & Asia

IndusGan es

Euphrates

The clash ofMekong

Nile

PERCEPTION vs FACTurray‐ ar ng



The Murray‐Darling Basin

Driving Philosophy:

You

can’t

manage

what

you

’

Must move from

percept ons

to

act

“ ”

enables the hard questions

and tradeoffs

to

be

tackled



Australia – the driest inhabited continent –

800

1000

Asia

North

America

16000

600(L)South

America(ML)

400

Africa4000

0

200Australia

0

Daily water consumption per

capita (including irrigation)

Annual streamflow

per km2



The Murray‐Darling Basin

(GL)

70% of Australia’s

irrigated agriculture

32000

However...16000

Serious over

‐allocation

of water between

10500 The Cap

8000

1960s‐1980s0

'20s '30s '40s '50s '60s '70s '80s '90s

QLD VIC NSW



The reform agendaPolicy | Institutional | Instruments | Tools



The Nile River Basin





Understanding the current status

Egypt – Aswan has

certainty

Consumption 60

BCM

Jonglei canal –

center of conflict

Ethiopia – 580 BCM

of rainfall—make it

work harder

for the

last

20

years

E uatorial Lakes

Evaporation

130BCM Plus

Demand 10BCM

Maximum



The Nile

Perception

’

Perception

’

There is not enough water for all reasonable purposes

That Aswan will run dr

There is not enough water for all reasonable purposes

That Aswan will run dr

Egypt has had the Lion’s share of the resourcesEgypt has had the Lion’s share of the resources

Agriculture is declining as a share of the GDP in all NileAgriculture is declining as a share of the GDP in all Nile

.

There is enough water for all reasonable purposes

Aswan will operate at a lower level closer to its design

.

There is enough water for all reasonable purposes

Aswan will operate at a lower level closer to its design

level. Evaporation in Lake Victoria is higher than

Egyptian water availability

level. Evaporation in Lake Victoria is higher than

Egyptian water availability

15% of that in Ethiopia 15% of that in Ethiopia



The Euphrates



The Euphrates

Salinity increasedSalinity increased

We do not say we share their oil resources. The cannot sa the share “

20002000

our water resources. This is a right of sovereignty. We have the right to do

.

Süleyman Demirel, Turkish Prime Minister, July 199219801980



The Euphrates

Perception

Perception

neighbors

neighbors

The salinity problem can be managed with help fromThe salinity problem can be managed with help from



Indus

The Treaty (1960)



Indus – The Region



Indus

Perception

Perception

More surface water storage will result in more water yield

Climate chan e is a lon wa off

More surface water storage will result in more water yield

Climate chan e is a lon wa off

FactFact

Groundwater dominates production and is threatened bylack of management (1-3% change in annual availability)

Groundwater dominates production and is threatened bylack of management (1-3% change in annual availability)

1.5% increase in regulated flow

Western end of the Himalayas is likely to see a

1.5% increase in regulated flow

Western end of the Himalayas is likely to see a30% reduction in flows in the next 30 years30% reduction in flows in the next 30 years



Ganges River Basin





Ganges Region – Highly Vulnerable Populations

Poverty

Rate

vs.

Population

density

+

Rainfall

dependence

vulnerability

300AFR

50

Natural

resources

Today’s climate

extremes are

Natural

resources

Today’s climate

extremes are200

2

SAR

30

40

already under alreadyalready under already100

150

EAP20

50

ECA

LACHigh

income MENA10

0

Population density

0

Population living



The River – South Asia Monsoons

A highly variable hydrology

Difficult to manage

Prone to drought and flood



Ganges Water Balance

500Total

flow

400Annual

Active storage

Consumptive use

200

300(km3)

Groundwater

100

0

Baseline High Dev.



Ganges

Perception

Perception

,

the control of Ganges floods

More surface water for irrigation is good

,

the control of Ganges floods

More surface water for irrigation is good

FactFact

Climate change will have a catastrophic impactClimate change will have a catastrophic impact

The next 20+ major dams will have little impact on

mainstream Ganges floods

The next 20+ major dams will have little impact on

mainstream Ganges floods

Surface irrigation is of low value

Conjunctive water use—huge opportunity—can be

Surface irrigation is of low value

Conjunctive water use—huge opportunity—can bedelivered now, a.k.a. the Ganges water machine

Global Circulation Models have not agreed on the

outcome of climate chan e

delivered now, a.k.a. the Ganges water machine

Global Circulation Models have not agreed on the

outcome of climate chan e



The Mekong



Mekong Region



Areas affected by salinity intrusion

Baseline resultsBaseline results



Mekong Water Balance

400

300Annual Total flow

200

(km3)

Consumptive use

100

0

Baseline High Dev.



Mekong

Perception

Perception

on lower riparians

There is little space for development without significant

on lower riparians

There is little space for development without significant

FactFact

environmental tradeoffsenvironmental tradeoffs

China dams deliver a much needed increase in low flow

and mitigate salinity intrusion in the delta. They also

China dams deliver a much needed increase in low flow

and mitigate salinity intrusion in the delta. They also

provide scope increase irrigation diversion with little

impact on fisheries

provide scope increase irrigation diversion with little

impact on fisheries

development provided they meet international standards

development provided they meet international standards



The Australian Story



Australia’s top 3 water issues

1. Diminishing water security

1. Diminishing water security

Urban population growth

Urban population growth

. ver-a oca on o resources

Rapid and poorly managed expansion of irrigation

. ver-a oca on o resources

Rapid and poorly managed expansion of irrigation

s- s

Uncontrolled groundwater use

s- s

Uncontrolled groundwater use

3. Environmental degradation

3. Environmental degradation

Salinity

Toxic algal blooms

Salinity

Toxic algal blooms

Decline in native fish, birds and floodplain vegetationDecline in native fish, birds and floodplain vegetation



The reform agendaPolicy |

Institutional |

Instruments |

Tools

l l f ( )



National water policy reform (1994‐2004)

1994 COAG water reforms

1994 COAG water reforms

Property rights and water markets/trading

Environmental flow rovisions

Property rights and water markets/trading

Environmental flow rovisionsGroundwater management

Water included in National Competition Policy

Groundwater management

Water included in National Competition Policy

2004 National Water Initiative

2004 National Water Initiative

New powers and role for Commonwealth (Federal)

Government

New powers and role for Commonwealth (Federal)

Government

New Commonwealth Water Act (2007)

Water for the Future fund ($12.9 billion)

New Commonwealth Water Act (2007)

Water for the Future fund ($12.9 billion)

Murray-Darling Basin PlanMurray-Darling Basin Plan

W i h d di



Water rights and water trading

Tradeable rights

Tradeable rights

Differing levels of security (higher and lower reliability)

Entitlement volumetric – er etual

Differing levels of security (higher and lower reliability)

Entitlement volumetric – er etualAllocation (share of available water) – seasonal/annual

Storage and supply (capacity share) – new,

Allocation (share of available water) – seasonal/annual

Storage and supply (capacity share) – new,

in some areas only

Cross-border trade, with some restrictions

bein removed

in some areas only

Cross-border trade, with some restrictions

bein removed

Spot market with water trading brokers

Spot market with water trading brokers

Th M D li B i Pl (2010 11)



The Murray‐Darling Basin Plan (2010‐11)

Defines ‘Sustainable Diversion Limits’

Defines ‘Sustainable Diversion Limits’

Covers surface- and ground-waters

Will consider climate chan e risks

Covers surface- and ground-waters

Will consider climate chan e risks

Protect environmental ‘assets’Protect environmental ‘assets’

Floodplain forests and wetlands

Environmental flows

Floodplain forests and wetlands

Environmental flows

Political and social implications

Political and social implications

State ‘Water Sharing Plans’ must be accredited

Social impacts must be considered

State ‘Water Sharing Plans’ must be accredited

Social impacts must be considered

Based on ‘best-available’ science(evidence-based policy)Based on ‘best-available’ science(evidence-based policy)

B tt i t l t



Better environmental outcomes

I t t d f t d d t



Integrated surface‐water and groundwater use

Major national water research and



Major national water research andtec no ogy initiatives

CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country

www.csiro.au

CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country

www.csiro.au

Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project

www.csiro.au/partnerships/MDBSY

Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project

www.csiro.au/partnerships/MDBSY

Bureau of MeteorologyAustralian Water Resources Information SystemBureau of MeteorologyAustralian Water Resources Information System

www. om.gov.au wa er

eWater Cooperative Research Centre

www. om.gov.au wa er

eWater Cooperative Research Centre

www.ewater.com.au

www.ewater.com.au



inte rated modellin s stem

for Australia

Why?



Why?

Current models struggling to handle 21C policyand management complexityCurrent models struggling to handle 21C policyand management complexity

Recognition by COAG partners that their models

are reaching their ‘use-by’ date (IQQM, REALM,

Recognition by COAG partners that their models

are reaching their ‘use-by’ date (IQQM, REALM,BigMOD)

The need for nationally consistent modeling

BigMOD)

The need for nationally consistent modeling

base, integrating:Engineering, environment and management

base, integrating:Engineering, environment and management

City water supplies in a catchment context

Planning and operational requirements

City water supplies in a catchment context

Planning and operational requirementsScalable and customizableScalable and customizable



LAND USE

ECOLOGICAL

ASSETS

for rural and urban water management

DAMS &

WEIRS

IRRIGATION CITIES

The Basins Murray Darling / Africa & Asia



The Basins – Murray‐Darling / Africa & Asia

IndusGan es

Euphrates

The clash ofMekong

NilePERCEPTION vs FACTurray‐ ar ng



Documents

Don Blackmore