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© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS): Trends in Online Mortgages
June 2014
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
2
Confidentiality ICG and their clients compete in a marketplace that generates value through the creation and management of information. It is therefore important that both parties maintain the confidentiality of each party’s information. ICG will protect the confidentiality of all client information it receives and manages. Similarly ICG asks that its clients protect ICG interests and under no circumstances share, or in any other way distribute, ICG information without the explicit and prior written permission of ICG.
Disclaimer ICG has made good faith efforts to ensure that this Domain Knowledge Scan (DKA) is a high-quality publication, and a reasonable interpretation of the material it purports to review. However, ICG does not warrant completeness or accuracy, and does not warrant that use of the DKS through ICG’s provisioning service will be uninterrupted or error-free, or that the results obtained will be useful or will satisfy the user's requirements. ICG does not endorse the reputations or opinions of any third party source represented in the DKS.
Copyright Notice While third party materials have been referenced and analysed in this DKS, the content represents the original work of ICG's personnel. This work is subject to copyright. ICG is the legal copyright holder. No person may reproduce the DKS without the explicit written permission of ICG. Use of the copyright material in any other form, and in any medium whatsoever, requires the prior agreement in writing of the copyright holder. The user is allowed "fair use" of the copyright material for non-commercial, educational, instructional, and scientific purposes by authorised users.
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Domain Knowledge Scans (DKS)
Domain Knowledge Scans (DKS) are an effective way to ensure your team is exposed to the very latest thinking in your industry, sub-sector or function Assess the very latest thinking, practices and insights and share with your team in report form and/or via a 2 hour briefing session.
• A unique highly distilled synthesis of the newest thinking in your industry, sub sector or function
• Can include critical ideas, frameworks, case studies, insights
• Garnered from relevant peer markets across consulting and advisory firms as well as academia and industry
• Includes a stimulating presentation to your team and or an extended audience
• Includes references for further review and investigation
• Ensures your team’s expertise is current
• DKSs are a companion resource to our monthly global periodical The Insights Review (TIR) and deeper full dives on a specific topic – our Knowledge Area Reviews (KAR).
3
Domain Knowledge Scans
DKS
Domain Knowledge Scans
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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DKS - Domain Knowledge Scan Cost: $5K
KAR – Knowledge Area Review Cost: $20K
TIR – The Insight Review Cost: $100 / year
GES – Global Expert Scan Cost: $10K
ERT – Expert Round Table Cost: $5K+
Deep
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Depth
Periodicity Upon Request Semi-annually Monthly
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DKSs are one of many innovative research tools for internal consultants and executives
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Online Mortgage opportunity
Scope Key questions & definition 1. Current market
definition
Global market for Mortgages • Potential for growth • Flows per channel – brokers are growing
2. Online market evolution
Will there be a fully online mortgage origination capability: • Consumer perspective • Capability perspective • Economic perspective
3. The Australian market opportunity
Australian market for Mortgages • Channel mix • Consumer channel migration • Market expectations • Constraints
ICG perspective on transition path
4. Approach Incumbents are taking,
Competition & differentiation • What are the key strategies to capture online mortgage market • Potential strategies to shift consumer preference for offline channels towards online
Simplified Estimate of size of the prize (Example Australia)
5
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Clear evidence of a multi-speed mortgage market in developed economies
6
Source: IMF, Financial Stability Indicators
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
Volume Index
(local $) 1 = Q1 2009
Residential Mortgage Loans Top Global Markets
South Korea
Italy
Canada
US
Germany
AU
UK
South Africa
Spain
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Household debt levels also continue to grow on a number of measures
7
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Source: Literature search, Broker associations, National Statistics and independent market research organisations
UK
(95 to 13)
Canada 4 (98 to13)
‘‘Vintage’’ year
Australia (02 to 13)
US (82 to 13)
Broker share of mortgage originations
Bro
ker s
hare
70%
60%
20%
10%
0%
50%
40%
30%
2019 21181514 1716 22 2928 30272423 26251376 82 3 54 100 111 9 12
GFC
GFC
GFC
GFC
Intermediary share of originations in most markets seem to be evolving toward ~50% of market volumes; The exceptions (US & UK) have both been subject to significant regulatory intervention to correct mis-selling & exceptional risk taking
8
In most countries, mortgage markets support a significant role for intermediaries who can offer choice, advice & price discovery
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Online Mortgage opportunity
Scope Key questions & definition 1. Current market
definition
Global market for Mortgages • Potential for growth • Flows per channel – brokers are growing
2. Online market evolution
Will there be a fully online mortgage origination capability: • Consumer perspective • Capability perspective • Economic perspective
3. The Australian market opportunity
Australian market for Mortgages • Channel mix • Consumer channel migration • Market expectations • Constraints
ICG perspective on transition path
4. Approach Incumbents are taking,
Competition & differentiation • What are the key strategies to capture online mortgage market • Potential strategies to shift consumer preference for offline channels towards online
Simplified Estimate of size of the prize (Example Australia)
9
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Most forecasts believe that a significant proportion of Sales & Advice conversations will shift towards remote channels (internet, mobile, call center etc.)
EU Mortgage Distribution Channels circa 2007
Source: EFMA, 2007; BCG Distribution 2020
Global Sales & Advice Contacts for Financial Services
1.2
0.8
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.0
1.0
Sales & AdviceContacts per Annum
(index)
Branch
MobileCall Centre
2012 2020
Internet
5%
23%
14%
15%
5%
1.00
1.132%
47%
1%
11%
79%
“By 2020, 40 percent of all sales-and-advice interactions with consumers will be handled through on-line channels. But branches will still be important. Frontline face-to-face and voice-to-voice channels will handle 60 percent of all sales-and-advice interactions by 2020, primarily advising on complex products (investments and complex mortgages).”
10
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Underlying trends suggest online Mortgages may be inevitable for a significant segment of the market
• Consumers increasingly expect online capabilities • Both Lenders and mortgage brokers expect online capabilities and competitors • Consumer behaviour today is moving online
o Simple transactions have moved highly online or digital
o Virtually all customers begin their research process online
o Customers value convenience and speed (best achieved in a fully digital way)
o Customers are increasingly trialing on-line process
o Transition of every-day transactions away from branch means that high-value sales (like mortgages) need to manage yield-loss in acquisition process
§ Highest loss are between research to application & application to decision
o Banks have enough information (if automated) to offer fully online mortgage (for existing customers)
o Leaders around the globe are already moving online
• However, there are significant constraints to a full end-to-end mortgage experience as it is dependent on digitisation and automation of many ‘infrastructure’ components o Online Identity Verification, Biometrics, Income Verification for non-bank customers o Robust continuous credit behaviour bureaux and property valuation services o Digitisation of title management and conveyancing
• … And significant proportion of the market will continue to be too complex to migrate on-line for the foreseable future
11
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Consumers increasingly use the internet as the primary source of information when conducting research for a mortgage
Information sources used before applying Base = Respondents who used each application method
31%
53%
36%
24%
29%
43%
60%
4%
8%
28%
17%
36%
54%
71%
7%
11%
29%
15%
26%
36%
93%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Meetings with Brokers
Meetings with Banks
Friends/Relatives
Realtor
Telephone Brokers
Telephone Banks
Internet
Internet Application
Telephone Application
In-person Application
Note: Percentages do not total 100 because some respondents did not use some information sources\ Source: Deloitte: Turning doubters into Online Believers 2011 – Exhibit 1
12
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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In the US, both recent & prior mortgage borrowers are moving online behaviour beyond research
Calculated how much you should spend on rent or a mortgage
Obtain a mortgage quote
Looked for a mortgage lender
Tracked your household finances
Have Done Online Would Like to do Online Gap
+14 +11
49%* 57%*
49%* 56%
55%* 65%
43% 60%
35% 51%
29% 46%
35% 49%
+20 +11
+14 +5
+12 +5
Prior Mortgage Borrowers Recent Mortgage Borrowers
*Denotes a statistically significant difference between “would like to do online” and “have done online” at the 95% confidence level Q: Have you ever done this online? [multiple responses permitted ] A: “Yes, using a smartphone” / “yes, using a tablet” / “yes, using a personal computer” / “No” Showing % Yes, have done online using at least 1 device – Mortgage Borrowers Q: Would you like to do this online in the future? [multiple responses permitted A: “yes, using a Smartphone” / “Yes, using a tablet” / “Yes, using a personal computer” / No” Showing % Yes, would like to do online using at least 1 device – Mortgage Borrowers Source: FannieMae, Online survey 2014
49%* 60%*
13
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Satisfaction with application process Percent of respondents very satisfied (6-7 on 7-point scale) Base = Respondents using each product and application method
70%
44%
56%
59%
59%
48%
48%
50%
68%
54%
47%
56%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Home equity
Refinance
First Mortgage
Total
Internet
Telephone
In-person
Source: Source: Deloitte: Turning doubters into Online Believers 2011; Exhibit 4
14
Online application process meets customers needs
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Convenience
Traditional Methods Better Online Better
73%
Two views of online applications: Believers v. Doubters Traditional application methods = telephone and in-person
0%
30% 66%
26% 59%
28% 58%
39%
0%
23% 57%
17% 46%
19% 39%
24% 11%
33% 15%
41% 14%
23% 10%
39% 19%
47% 19%
35% 18%
Ease of submitting information
Comfort with process
Speed until closing
Ease overall
Ease of understanding requirements
Security / privacy
Traditional applicants Online applicants Source: Source: Deloitte: Turning doubters into Online Believers 2011; Exhibit 6
15
Even doubters are beginning to see value in online methods of application
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Fact: Pure Mortgage origination is less costly via direct channels Internet/Call center
Source: Mckinsey Retail Banking Multi-channel 2010
16
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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And... Multi-channel customers are more likely to buy
Initial contact
Application contact
Sales contact Channel
Close rate %
Branch
Call-centre
Online/digital
20
1
15
15
5
5
Source: BCG Multi-channel publication
17
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Source: Literature search
207 226 267
409
488 539
649
I T I + T B B + I B + T B+T+I
€
B+T+I
× 3.1
4.2 4.5
4.8
5.5 6.0
6.7
7.5
T B I T+I B+T B+I B+T+I
Number of products
B+T+I
+ 3.3
1.0 1.5 1.8
2.7
5.5 6.3
13.3
I T B I+T B+T B+I B+T+I
M
B+T+I
× 13.3
Threefold profitability 3.3 additional products per customer
13.3 times higher loyalty than pure Internet user
B = Branch T = Telephone I = Internet
Effect of multi-channel usage
Bankinter – Spain
Average profitability per customer
Average number of products per customer Customer loyalty
18
Leading digital banks are showing that multi-channel drives profit, wallet share & loyalty
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Speed Increases volume EU example
Time is money in mortgages
Source: ICG experience
80
90
100
110
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Volume (index)
Quote processing speed (in working days)
Standard Loans
Faster than market clearing time increases volume
Speed Increases Conversion NA Example
# of days from application to final decision
Overall avg = 65%
% Applications funded Faster than market clearing duration
increases conversion rate
19
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Halifax mortgage promise Case examples
Branch ~ 15 mins
Call centre ~ 5–15 mins
Online ~ 60 seconds
Simple application process Minimum customer info requested ('your national insurance number if you can find it') Available through all Halifax/ BoS-branded channels Can be completed as a one off promise (minimizes time spent on vague prospects) Also used as first stage in a formal mortgage interview (60–90 min) Allows the advisor to start with the good news . . . . . . but also to identify customers with credit problems early in the process
Can I have a mortgage? How much can I borrow? Get straightforward answers to your questions by applying for a Mortgage Promise. It will take just fifteen minutes to fill in the form, and immediately you will get an indication of what we are prepared to lend you We'll confirm this by giving you a Mortgage Promise Certificate, which is really handy if you are buying a home and want to prove you are a serious buyer What do I need to do? We'll take you step by step through the Mortgage Promise. We recommend you have the following information to hand, as this will make your application much easier to complete
• Any existing mortgage information, for example, how much you owe
• Any existing Halifax account information (including roll numbers, sort code, and account numbers)
• Your income details (and National Insurance number if you can find it)
• Your address and employment history for the last three years
• Details of any bank accounts, including credit cards and store cards
• Details of the house you are buying (if this applies/if you have any details to hand)
• Your e-mail address Source: Literature search
20
In 2004, HBOS introduced 15 minute Mortgage
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Online Mortgage opportunity
Scope Key questions & definition 1. Current market
definition
Global market for Mortgages • Potential for growth • Flows per channel – brokers are growing
2. Online market evolution
Will there be a fully online mortgage origination capability: • Consumer perspective • Capability perspective • Economic perspective
3. The Australian market opportunity
Australian market for Mortgages • Channel mix • Consumer channel migration • Market expectations • Constraints
ICG perspective on transition path
4. Approach Incumbents are taking,
Competition & differentiation • What are the key strategies to capture online mortgage market • Potential strategies to shift consumer preference for offline channels towards online
Simplified Estimate of size of the prize (Example Australia)
21
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Australian Market Development
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; 5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Mar 2014 ; Table 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Mar
-200
2 D
ec-2
002
Sep
-200
3 Ju
n-20
04
Mar
-200
5 D
ec-2
005
Sep
-200
6 Ju
n-20
07
Mar
-200
8 D
ec-2
008
Sep
-200
9 Ju
n-20
10
Mar
-201
1 D
ec-2
011
Sep
-201
2 Ju
n-20
13
Mar
-201
4
$B
Outstanding Housing Loans
OO Housing Inv. Housing
CAGR
11.6%
12.3%
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Mar
-200
2 N
ov-2
002
Jul-2
003
Mar
-200
4 N
ov-2
004
Jul-2
005
Mar
-200
6 N
ov-2
006
Jul-2
007
Mar
-200
8 N
ov-2
008
Jul-2
009
Mar
-201
0 N
ov-2
010
Jul-2
011
Mar
-201
2 N
ov-2
012
Jul-2
013
Mar
-201
4
$B
Monthly Mortgage Commitments
Refinancings New Commitments
CAGR
9.92%
5.07%
Australian Mortgage market is approaching $1.3T Outstanding, ~2/3 Owner occupied & 1/3 Investment Housing. Monthly commitments exceeding $16B, 4.9B in Re-financing, & $11.7B in New Commitments
22
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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AU Broker share grown to approach 50% of originations
Source: 2012 JPMorgan / Fujitsu Mortgage Market Study; 2012-14; Comparator Report data, Digital Finance Analytics
Broker originated loans as a proportion of all new commitments fell post Global Financial Crisis to a low of ~35% as banks tightened credit. Share recovered quickly through 2009 to ~40% and has grown to ~50% of the market
5
45
30
50
0
10
2025
4035
15
% Share
Q4 12 Q1 13Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 13 Q1 14Q2 13 Q3 13Q1 10Q4 09Q3 09 Q2 10 Q1 11Q4 10Q3 10Q2 08Q1 08Broker Share
Q3 08 Q2 09Q1 09Q4 08 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12
23
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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In Australia, Online share of applications originated & funded is negligible, today…
• Few universal banks around the world provide a fully online end-to-end mortgage process. Those furthest advanced have automated the process from application to decision, these include:
- Sweden – SBAB - Spain, - Bankinter - Canada – PC Financial - Australia – Commbank
In each case, while it is possible to get a decision and mortgage documents online, the post-application submission the process is transferred to an advisor (either in-person, video or online) to handle communications closing and cross-sell activities.
• With declining margins, consumer behavior moving away from branch usage and the prospect for higher capital reserves against the mortgage portfolio, banks are seeking ways to retain shift share away from their most expensive channel – intermediaries towards proprietary staff, in branches, mobile lenders and contact center staffed specialists
• Additional capabilities being built to improve productivity of proprietary channels include:
- Digital & multi-channel Application capture - Analytics & Context sensitive offers - Robust referrals and lead management - Multi-channel measurement & incentives
Source: ICG experience 1) Channel of App Lodgement
0
17
55
20
5
35
15
45
0 2
5 5
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
Online Mobile Call Center Branches RM's (SBB, FP's Other)
Brokers and Intermediaries
Channel of Origin % of Applications lodged by channel %
N/M
Trend
80
24
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Australian customers are already conducting many of their FS product journeys through multiple channels
“This year, for the first time ever, Internet Banking has overtaken branch visits and is now the second most popular channel of banking, behind ATMs”
Banking Channels used by Australians
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July 1997 – June 2012
21%
68% 78%
19%
23% 8%
9%
7%
2.5%
69%
22% 15%
50%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8%
69%
Research Origination Fulfilment Transact
Other Branch ATM Telephony
IVR Online
Mobile
Source: BCG perspective on consumer channel preferences 2012-2017 All Banking Products
25
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Source: Genworth HomeGrown Study 2013
20
30
0
10
60
50
40
90
80
70
%
Mobile Lender
Broker Perceptions
Online Mobile Branch Financial Adviser
Lender Perceptions
Broker Call Center
52
34
25
10
90
74
43
86
20
38
8
65
50
33
Lenders and Brokers expect Online and Mobile to grow relative to traditional channels
(2014-2019)
Digital revolution has changed the way lenders interact with borrowers;
• Borrowers will increasingly use online/mobile channels to apply for mortgages
• Growth will come at the expense of Branch (43% of lenders expect volume sold in branch will decrease; 57% of brokers expected the same)
However the full end-to-end mortgage loan is a long way away;
• “Too complicated; Too many variants” – Banker • “Attackers will simplify things and banks will have no
choice but to follow suit, changing the shape of market share distribution”
“Where the trade-off will happen is… increasingly,
transaction-based activities will migrate from branches to digital. The lower value… activities integral to obtaining a mortgage [such as] determining affordability [and] comparing offerings will also increasingly migrate to digital. Strategic advice and aligning suitability of offering to specific customer needs will continue to benefit from human interaction, which will underwrite the longevity of the broker channel.” – Lisa Claes, Executive Director at ING DIRECT
26
In Australia, both Lenders and Brokers alike expect growth in digital channels
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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But unlike consumers elsewhere, interest on-line mortgage is not yet increasing
Google Trends: “Online-Mortgage”
Canada
Australia
United S
tates U
nited Kingdom
Source: Google Trends (May 2005-2014; Forecast of 2015)
27
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Key Constraints = Mortgage complexity & lack of online capabilities in Australia
0 20 40 60 80
Auto-valuation not available
Requires Manual decision
Self Employed
>80% LVR requires LMI
First home buyer
Product features
Complex loan
Proportion of applications with fault
Today, in Australia many complexity drivers, require human intervention Online application rates are a chicken & egg problem
Low Canadian application rates driven by lack of bank provided online-channel capabilities
In 2013, 15% of all US mortgage commitments were initiated online
21%
10% 8%
43%
30% 25%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Credit cards Checking accounts Mortgages
Canada US
% Applicants who applied online
Source: Forrester Research: Canadian Trends in Researching and Applying for Financial Products online, November 2007, Online Mortgage Shoppers’ Path to Purchase, June 7, 2006, Online Credit Card Shoppers’ Paths to Purchase, October 23, 2006, Who Researches and Buys Current Accounts Online? March 21, 2006, ICG Client Experience 2012
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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The end-to-end mortgage process is challenging and complex; Moving today’s process fully to digital channels will likely take many years; Initial efforts will work to improve yield of research to offer, and offer to decision; Full title transfer on-line is not likely feasible in the Australian context until 2015;
Cho
ice
Cha
nnel
s M
ono-
bran
d C
hann
els
Mobile App
Online
Chat
Telephony
Video Advisor
Branch Advisor
Mortgage Specialist
Comparison Site
Aggregator
Broker
Bank view Of Value-Chain
Property Search
Locate & Negotiate
Apply & Decide
Close deal
Take Possession Move Upgrade Repeat
Research Shop and Rate lock
Lodge Application
Verify ID Validate Income
Value Property Decision Document Title
Transfer Fund
Source: Literature search; PEXA website, ICG experience
Only 3 channels capable of e-2-e mortgage experience
29
But in Australia, an Online mortgage is constrained by channel capability
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Infrastructure underlying ‘fully’ online mortgage: Next 5 years will see fundamental building blocks in place
Australian Market Capability Status and Challenge
Capability Required Time horizon estimate
Low positive match rates today; Requires paper documentation, citing pay slips/bank statements
>90% positive Identity verification for those borrowers who are approved
Up to 5 years
Credit decision focused primarily on affordability, and valuation coverage; Significant use of LMI to cover event risks (divorce, loss of job); U/W largely focuses on capacity, willingness & security quality
Positive and negative reporting signals/ Fraud data/ & cashflow currency; Implementation of risk-based pricing online
2015+
eVal’s & subscriptions growing; increasing use of internal models; Significant proportion of valuations still require physical evaluation
Up-to-date valuations on majority of land values & recent property transactions
Will align with PEXA
PEXA has gone live in Victoria and NSW, by 2015 will enable full e-conveyancing process to be completed on-line
Online title verificaiton & transfer to give up-to-date collateral management
2015-2016
Aggregators today primarily concerned with capture of underwriting information;
EU markets where lenders are more fragmented have built effective ‘utility’ aggregators which incent on-line innovation
??
Identity Verification & Income Verification
Underwriting Capabilities
Title Verification & Transfer
Effective aggregation platforms
Property Valuation Capabilities
30
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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31
• Banks around the world are focused on driving productivity: - Higher sales per staff member - Better utilisation - Higher cross-sell & retention - Lower costs
• As a consequence they are focusing intensely on automating and digitising the customer experience of their most expensive and highest value products (mortgages)
• AND integrating the financial transaction into the customer event (upstream & downstream value add)
Banks are also keen to displace high-cost intermediaries (who offer choice, but also can displace the customer advisory relationship) The best way to do this is with a differentiated experience (faster, simpler, easier) – the online mortgage can do this Banks will inevitably offer customers the option to self-service fully online mortgage transactions, such as: • Renewals (same customer, collateral &
product) • Refinancing decisions (same risk,
different products) • Top-ups (same customer, same
collateral, same product)
The simultaneous evolution of the underlying infrastructure to enable: - Better Identification/verification, - Richer underwriting, - Better collateral valuation, - Title conveyancing, & - Real time payments
Naturally will create the opportunity for new digital entrants Consequently, banks in laggard geographies will have no choice but to take the mortgage online in the coming years, extending servicing transactions to originating new loans, is a modest step, once customers are familiar with on-line transactions
Online mortgage sales is likely to evolve slowly, but transition rapidly
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Online Mortgage opportunity
Scope Key questions & definition 1. Current market
definition
Global market for Mortgages • Potential for growth • Flows per channel – brokers are growing
2. Online market evolution
Will there be a fully online mortgage origination capability: • Consumer perspective • Capability perspective • Economic perspective
3. The Australian market opportunity
Australian market for Mortgages • Channel mix • Consumer channel migration • Market expectations • Constraints
ICG perspective on transition path
4. Approach Incumbents are taking,
Competition & differentiation • What are the key strategies to capture online mortgage market • Potential strategies to shift consumer preference for offline channels towards online
Simplified Estimate of size of the prize (Example Australia)
32
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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1) Integrate financing decision into customer ‘housing’ journey (eg. CommBank Property App) 2) Use online & mobile to reach new markets
• Provide choice platforms (eg. Comparator, bankinter)
3) Make it easy for customer to move directly from research to action • Simplify online product & segment role of channel migrating complex customers to assisted channel
• Build required infrastructure -- Suspend & Resume, Chat, online/assisted integration
• Simplify adjudication/decision process leveraging existing customer data
• Provide pre-approval
• Shift product structure to enable faster lower risk decision making
4) Move faster – leverage off-the shelf software to increase speed of change and learning
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Strategies banks should pursue to enable Multi-channel Competitive Advantage in mortgages
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Critical features consumers expect to facilitate a positive online mortgage experience
Features on lender’s Web site Base – Respondents who applied online
Offered
Extremely / very useful
77%
54%
74%
81%
55%
84%
78%
83%
72%
75%
77%
79%
21%
26%
30%
45%
45%
46%
47%
65%
67%
70%
75%
77%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Abilty to approve closing documents
Online chat
Product recommendations
Ability to receive final approval
Easy-to-access Help tool
Ability to lock-in rate
Ability to review expected terms
Ability to be pre-approved
Ability to calculate maximum loan
Loan calculator
Ability to speak by telephone to representative
Email confirmation
Note: Respondents who used each feature were asked to rate how useful they were Source: Consumer Online Mortgage Report –: Deloitte: Turning doubters into Online Believers 2011; exhibit 7
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© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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How much is online mortgage origination worth to the innovators: Example: potential size of the prize for Australia
Increased conversion rate
Value Drivers Rationale Calculation Full Market Potential Value Example value
• convenience & speed of digital origination capability
• Converting share of ‘interest’ into share of applications
# loans funded per annum x Avg. Value / loan funded ÷ Yield loss approv to funded ÷ Approval rate = Mortgage Volume per annum X improved conversion rate for
online applications X Max % of apps eligible for
online X Avg. margin = Annual increased flow
~$332B of unique loans approved ÷ 65% = $511B of lodged applications X 5-7 day advantage X 1.25-2% better conversion /day
6.25-10% X 40-50% X 90 bps = 1.1-$3B
$ 46M per annum; NPV = $231M for 10 years
• Consumers take on effort of data entry avoiding touch time for mortgage applications ~4-6 hours
Avoided effort between # of applications lodged, and # approved applications X touch-time $ per application
1.7 M applications lodged - 1.1M applications approved & funded X $3-500 per application $175M – 485M per annum
$7M per annum PV = $35M over 10 years
• Revenue benefit of re-deploying Freed up capacity of staff to work on more complex advice activity
• Revenue benefit of improved satisfaction/retention/ cross-sell of better process
• Growth volume benefit of differentiation
Cost savings & avoided costs
High-level example based on firm with 15% share of flow
Note: Assumes Profit margin of 90bps on mortgage volume; Cost of Capital 15%; Time horizon for advantage = 10 years; Source: ICG Experience
Value pools not estimated
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© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE
Article Source & contents World Retail Banking Report 2013 Cap-Gemini / EFMA – trends in customer satisfaction and use of digital channels; Country by country
comparison of Customer Experience Index and drivers
Genworth International Mortgage Trends report 2011
Description of mortgage industry trends in industrialised countries
European Mortgage Distribution 2007 EFMA, Fortis, Oliver Wyman; Analysis of all EU countries with a particular focus on channel trends (branches, intermediaries, remot chanels)
Carlisle & Gallagher Consulting US Mortgage Lending, Strategies to gain share in the new Normal
Submissions to the Financial Systems Inquiry
ABA, Westpac, ANZ Bank, NAB, ING Direct Others (mortgage & Finance Association of Australia, RateSetter, SocietyOne)
Mobile Banking around the world; BAI Retail 2012
Profiled of Hana Bank Korean Mobile bank; Bankinter: Spanish direct channel leader
Mortgage Market Review: UK Financial Services Authority 2010
Review of the role of intermediaries (face-to-face vs. Direct)
Winning Strategies in the Brokered Mortgage Market, Deloitte 2010
Reviw of the role of broker intermediation in Canadian Mortgage market
International Monetary Fund: Financial Stability Indicators of major countriews
Staticstics on debt & other financial services penetration rates by country
European mortgage Markets, What can we learn
Study by Hypostech Management consultancy; Review of product, distribution & processing for Dutch, UK, Belgian, German, Danish & Swedish markets circa 2007
Assoc’n of Mortgage Intermediaries: Value of Mortgage advice
Review of the role of brokers in the UK market
Fannie Mae Online Mortgage Survey 2014
Detailed survey of mortgage behaviour and shopping patterns in US
Genworth Homgrown report 2013 Includes a review of distribution dynamics and role of lenders/intermediaries in Australia
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Key articles reviewed
© Internal Consulting Group 2015 Domain Knowledge Scan (DKS) – Trends in Online Mortgages
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Article Source & contents Deloitte Retail Lending 3.0 Boosting productivity and improving the customer experience
Mortgage Report 2014 Silver lining in Lending – turning doubters into online believers
Toronto Retail lending statistics Mortgage Broker Association, Broker channel Market share data
ABA Statistics Housing Loans
The Residential Mortgage Market in Canada: A Primer
Crawford, Meh, Zhou; for Bank of Canada
Mckinsey & Co Banking on Multi-channel
BCG Multichannel retailing
EFMA 2007: A new deal in mortgage distribution
Summary of study with Oliver Wyman on distribution of mortgages across various EU Markets
Mortgage distribution channels: Extimates of Lending (2001)
Journal of Housing Finance, Study on evolution of channel strategies and channel landscape across various countries
Quicken Loans (disclusures) More than 2M loans originated; second largest retail lender in the US, closing $80B in home loan volume in 2013 (up 9% from 70B in 2012 which itself was up 133% over 2011 volume of 30B; Also entering the servicing business servicing over 100B of loans; Its technology is used exclusively by Charles Schwab Bank and JP Morgan Chase
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Key articles reviewed
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