Folie 1 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Potentials for Renewables in Europe

Wolfram Krewitt

DLRInstitute of Technical Thermodynamics

Systems Analysis and Technology AssessmentStuttgart

eufores7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting

Berlin 5-6, 2007

Folie 2 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Solar resources in Europe

Global horizontal irradiation, 1. October 2005, 12:00-13:00

W/m²

Folie 3 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

PV electricity generation potential

MWh/km²

1. October 2005, 12:00-13:00

actual demand:345 GWh

potential generation:164 GWh

Folie 4 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Renewable energy technical potentials in Europe

EJ/y

0

50

100

150

200

250

Geothermal heat

Solar heating

Biomass energy crops

Biomass residues

Geothermal (el)

Ocean (el)

Wind (el)

Hydro (el)

Solar PV (el)

Solar CSP (el)

RESpotentials

gross primary energy consumptionEU-25 in 2005 Source: Ecofys, DLR

Folie 5 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Renewable energy deployment potentials

target oriented RES expansion 2°C target (climate protection) security of supply

economic constraints- cost reduction of RES-technologies by running through the

learning curve- increase in fossil fuel prices and CO2-costs most RES-technologies gain competitiveness within the next

15 years

structural constraints- current supply structure, power plant stock turnover, building

up of new industrial production capacity

opportunities

Folie 6 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

RES deployment potentials in the electricity sector

Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Efficiency

Import RES

Ocean Energy

Solar Thermal

PV

Geothermal

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

CHP fossil

Gas&oil

Coal

Nuclear

TW

h/a

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Efficiency

Import RES

Ocean Energy

Solar Thermal

PV

Geothermal

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

CHP fossil

Gas&oil

Coal

Nuclear

TW

h/a

80% RES electricity

Folie 7 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

RES deployment potentials – primary energy

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Efficiency

Ocean energy

Geothermal

Solar

Biomass

Wind

Hydro

Natural gas

Crude oil

Coal

Lignite

Nuclear

PJ/

a

45% energy savings compared to ‘business-as-usual’

50% renewables

Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe

Folie 8 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Costs of electricity supply

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2°C Scenario - efficiency measures2°C Scenario - electricity generationReference - electricity generation

Bil

lio

n €

/a

2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

‘wisdom of market’?

Folie 9 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Costs of electricity supply

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2°C Scenario - efficiency measures2°C Scenario - electricity generationReference - electricity generation

Bil

lio

n €

/a

2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

policy incentives&

wisdom of market!

Folie 10 > Vortrag > AutorDokumentname > 23.11.2004

Renewable energy perspectives

renewable energy potentials in Europe significantly exceed the energy demand

rapid RES deployment ensures compliance with climate protection targets

renewable energies hedge against increasing energy prices

investment in renewable energy technologies offers options for industrial development and employment

societal and structural innovation is required to facilitate the transformation process

feed-in-tariffs proved to be the most successful support instrument