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Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?
Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police
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The claim• There is a clear relationship between everyday…
interpersonal violence…and…domestic homicide (Websdale 1994)
• There is therefore an opportunity to intervene in escalating patterns of violence
• Therefore we need to assess the risk based on predictors drawn from studies of domestic murders
• Prediction can lead to prevention
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The research questions• In how many cases was there a prior history of
reported domestic violence?
• How accurate were the risk assessments based on prior history in terms of false positives and false negatives?
• Might a prospective denominator-based prediction produce more accurate forecasting than a numerator-based prediction?
• Are the predictors for murder different from other serious assaults?
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DASH high risk factors for potential murder victims • Fear • Isolation • Separation • Conflict over a child • Stalking • Pregnancy • Child abuse • Frequency of abuse • Escalation of abuse
• Jealousy • Weapons • Threats to kill • Strangulation • Sexual assault • Other threats • Mistreat animals • Drug abuse • Attempt suicide
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Domestic Violence Offences
Offence3 Years - Numbers 2007 to
2009% of
sample
Murder 13 11
Attempt murder 16 14
Manslaughter 1 1
GBH with intent 88 74
Total 118 100
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Gender and outcomes
MurderAttempt murder Manslaughter
GBH with intent
All offences
Female victims
11 (85%)
15 (94%) 1
40 (45%) 67
Male victims
2 (15%)
1(6%) 0
48 (55%) 51
Total 13 16 1 88 118
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Risk of death per attack:4 times higher for women victimsFemale Victims
Attacks = 67
Death = 11
Ratio = 1 in 6
Male Victims
Attacks = 51
Deaths = 2
Ratio = 1 in 25
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Victim prior contact with the police
Victim has prior recorded domestic incident contact with police since 1/1/2000 Number %
YES 53 44.9
NO 65 55.1
Total 118 100
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Prior risk assessment Risk assessment for victim on most recent prior domestic incident (n=53) Number % Valid %
High 5 4.2 9.4
Medium 21 17.8 39.6
Standard 21 17.8 39.6
Prior contact but risk assessment not known or not recorded 6 5.1 11.3
N/A as no prior domestic incident contact with police 65 55.1 -
Total 118 100 100
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How well did DASH predict?
• None of the 13 murder victims had been assessed as high risk
• Of the 6 murder victims who had been risk assessed following a previous incident, 1 was assessed as medium risk and 5 standard risk
• No prior domestic incident contact with police for 7 of the murder victims
• DASH missed 55% of attacks
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Prior domestic incident contacts between victim & police
Total number of contactsNumber of
victimsCumulative
%
20+ 3 2
10-19 5 7
2-9 20 24
1 25 45
Sub total contacts 53 45
No prior Domestic Incident contact with police 65 55
Total 118 100
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Most recent prior victim contact with the police for domestic incidents (n=53)Nature of victim's most recent prior domestic incident contact with the police Number %
Non-crime domestic incident 16 30.2
Actual Bodily Harm 16 30.2
Assault without injury 7 13.2
Criminal Damage 4 7.5
Threats to kill 4 7.5
Harassment 3 5.7
Racist incident non-recordable crime 1 1.9
GBH with intent 1 1.9
Arson with intent to endanger life 1 1.9
Total 53 100
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Offender criminal record
Previous criminal record Number % of sample
Suspect has prior criminal record 87 73.7
[Suspect has prior criminal record for a violent offence] 70 59.3
Suspect has no prior criminal record 27 22.8
No record traced/missing data 4 3.4
Total 118 100
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Next steps
• Collect data on the false positives: analyse MARAC watch list
• Investigate potential denominators
• Identify further studies which have assessed the effectiveness of DASH or its predecessor
Thank you
