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8/14/2019 Does Parole Work? Research Findings and Policy
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8/14/2019 Does Parole Work? Research Findings and Policy
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Presentation Overview
Why Study Supervision?
A Focus on the Question: Does Parole Work?
The Study Research Questions Data Sources Findings
Limitations Research Opportunities
Policy Opportunities
8/14/2019 Does Parole Work? Research Findings and Policy
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Why Study Supervision?
#1 Large numbers on parole
Most prisoners - 80% - released to supervision
774,000 on parole in 2003, up from 197,000 in 1980
Resources have not kept pace
caseloads up (70:1)
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Why Study Supervision?
#2 Failure rates are high
Only 45% of all parolees successfully complete
parole
Large numbers of parolees return to prison for
violations
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Why Study Supervision?
#3 Parole is implemented differently
state to state.
Use, duration, and intensity varies widely
Different supervision strategies employed
Different methods of release
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Context Begs Question:
Does Parole Work?
Defining Terms Parole = any post-prison supervision Works = reduce rearrests
Acknowledging Limitations
Defending its Importance How can we can focus on reentry and NOT demandto know if community supervision the biggestreentry intervention there is -- is contributing to publicsafety???
8/14/2019 Does Parole Work? Research Findings and Policy
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
The Study
Compares prisoners released to supervision in 1994 to
prisoners released without supervision
Assesses, at an aggregate level, whether parolereduces rearrests among those released from prison
3 research questions:
Do groups differ?
Do groups recidivate at different rates?
For whom does supervision matter most?
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Shift in Method of Release
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Discretionary Mandatory Unconditional
Released to Supervision
1. Discretionary releasees
(parole board decision)
2. Mandatory releasees(sentence minus good time)
Released to No Supervision
3. Unconditional releasees
(full sentence)
Three Study Groups
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Source Data
BJS data
38,624 prisoners released in 1994 from 15 states 35% discretionary parolees 57% mandatory parolees 8% unconditional releases
Sample representative of 272,111 prisoners 2/3 ofall prison releases in 1994
BJS tracked individuals for 3 years
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Research Question #1
Do prisoners released with and withoutsupervision have different demographics,
incarceration experiences, or criminal
histories?
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Characteristics of Prisoners Released in
1994, by Supervision Status at Release
CRIMINAL HIST ORY
Unconditional
releasees
Mandatory
parolees
Discretionary
paroleesDEMOGRAPHICS
Average age at release (years)
Male (%)
Black (%)
INCARCERATION CHARACTERISTICS
Previously arrested (%)
Average number of prior arrests
Previously arrested for violent offense (
Prior incarcerations (prison or jail, %)Average number of prior incarcerations
Incarcerated for violent offense (%)
Incarcerated for drug offense (%)
Incarcerated for property offense (%)
Incarcerated for public order offense (
Average time served (months)
32.7 32.6 31.9
93
55
93
33
9
9.6
67
68
2.7
21
31
27
30
67
2.3
32
92
42
94
9.5
63
69
2.5
54
92
7.5
55
21.3
23
34
31
10
35
9
18.5
90
8/14/2019 Does Parole Work? Research Findings and Policy
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Research Question #2
Do prisoners released with and withoutsupervision recidivate at different rates?
(2 year window)
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Recidivism Outcomes, 2 Years Out
62% 61%
54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent Rearrested
Unconditional Conditional--Mandatory Conditional--Discretionary
Average # of Rearrests:UR 2.5
MR 2.1
DR 2.1
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Controlled for race, age, prior arrests, offense type,
admission type, resource deprivation
PREDICTED PROBABILITY OF REARREST
Unconditional: 61%
ConditionalMandatory: 61%
ConditionalDiscretionary: 57%
Modeled Recidivism Outcomes
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Research Question #3
For whom does supervision matter most?
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Who Benefits Most and Least?
Certain prisoners benefit more from supervisionfemales
individuals with few prior arrestspublic order offenderstechnical violatorscombinations of the above
Little impact on higher rate, more serious offenders
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Who Benefits Most and Least?Predicted Probabilities Of Rearrest
Uncondition
releasees
M andatory
Parolees
Discretionar
Parolees
Males 60% 62% 58%
Females 67% 51% 51%
CRIMINAL HISTORY
Few prior arrests 53% 49% 44%
Medium prior arrests 59% 57% 52%H igh prior arrests 68% 70% 66%
OFFENSE TYPE
Violent offense 55% 56% 55%
Property offense 68% 67% 62%
D ru g offense 56% 61% 54%
Pu blic order and other offen 65% 57% 55%
GENDER
61% 61% 57%OVERALL
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
How Does Supervision Affect the
Largest Release Groups?
Males with property, drug and violent incarceration
offenses account for 80% of 1994 releases
Male violent = 21% cohort, no impactMale drug = 28% cohort, mandatory higher
Male property = 31% cohort, discretionary lower
Of largest groups, only property offenders released
to discretionary parole benefit
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Summary of Findings
In the aggregate, parole supervision has little effect on
rearrest rates Mandatory parolees fare no better than unconditional
releases Discretionary parolees do better, but selected as low-
risk
Some groups benefit more from supervision Lower-level offenders benefit most Comprise small shares of population
Of largest groups, only property offenders released to
discretionary parole benefit from supervision
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Study in Perspective
Study suggests topic warrants further
attention
Study does notconclude that parole cantwork
Study does not speak to state levelsuccesses, what works where for whom
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Research Opportunities
State level what works where?
Across states
-- what types of parole strategies work better than
others?
-- role of length, type and intensity of supervision,
caseload size, contact standards, programming,
treatment in prison and community
Why does parole work for some better than
others?
Lessons from the discretionary release process?
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Policy Opportunities:
Agency Level
Adopt public safety mission
Set and be accountable for explicit publicsafety benchmarks
Implement evidence-based practices
Partner with other agencies
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Policy Opportunities:
Supervision Strategies
Supervise in neighborhoods making places safer
Emphasize both surveillance and treatment
Align resources with risks
Prioritize -- and communicate only rules and
conditions that can be realistically monitored and
enforced
Instill swift, certain, consistent, predictableresponses to failures
Provide incentives for successes, including early
release
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice Policy CenterThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Window of Opportunity
Opportunity for reform, reinvention Parole not producing large, visible reductions in crime
Yet great potential to control crime
Timely opportunity to
Be at center of reentry policy discussions Produce public value Be major contributor to public safety
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice PolicyCenter
To receive email updates of JPC research, send an email to
Does Parole Work? Analyzing the Impact of Postprison
Supervision on Rearrest Outcomesis availableat:http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=311156
For more information on prisoner reentry, please visit the
Urban Institute website at: http://jpc.urban.org/reentry
mailto:[email protected]://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=311156http://jpc.urban.org/reentryhttp://jpc.urban.org/reentryhttp://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=311156mailto:[email protected]8/14/2019 Does Parole Work? Research Findings and Policy
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URBAN INSTITUTEJustice PolicyCenter
Co-authors Amy Solomon, Vera Kachnowski, and Avi Bhati
are grateful for the generous support of the JEHTFoundation for funding the study, Does Parole Work?
Analyzing the Impact of Postprison Supervision on
Rearrest Outcomes