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Document of
The World Bank
Report No: ICR00002463
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
(IDA-4276-KE)
ON A
CREDIT
IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR8.4 MILLION
(US$12.9 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
REPUBLIC OF KENYA
FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT
May 23, 2013
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 2
Country Department AFCE2
Africa Region
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Exchange Rate Effective February 12, 2013
Currency Unit = Kenya Shillings
Kenya Shillings 85.90 = US$1
US$1 = SDR0.65
FISCAL YEAR
July 1 – June 30
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
CAS
CBK
Country Assistance Strategy
Central Bank of Kenya
CBS Central Bureau of Statistics
CFAA Country Financial Accountability Assessment
CIFA
CIP
Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment
Census of Industrial Production
CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
CPAR
CPI
Country Procurement Assessment Report
Consumer Price Index
CPO Chief Procurement Officer
CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review
CRD Civil Registration Department
DANIDA Danish International Development Agency
DFID
DG
Department for International Development
Director General (of KNBS)
DIRs Detailed Implementation Reviews
DSO
EC
District Statistical Office
European Commission
EMIS Education Management Information System.
ERS Economic Recovery Strategy
ESW Economic Sector Work
FMR Financial Monitoring Reports
FMS Financial Management Specialist
GAP Governance Action Plan
GDDS General Data Dissemination System
GDP
GFS
Gross Domestic Product
Government Finance Statistics
GIS Geographical Information System
GJLOS Governance, Justice, Law and Order Sector
GOK Government of Kenya
GPN General Procurement Notices
HMIS Health Management Information System
HRD Human Resource Development
IAG Internal Auditor General
IAS International Accounting Standards
ICB
ICRR
International Competitive Bidding
Implementation Completion and Results Report
ICT Information and Communication Technology
IDA International Development Association
IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System
ILO International Labor Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMIS Integrated Multi-sector Information System
IP-ERS Investment Program for the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and
Employment Creation
IPSAS International Public Sector Accounting Standards
IRCB Institutional Reform and Capacity Building
ISIC
ISR
International Standard Industrial Classification
Implementation Supervision Report
KACC Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission
KDHS Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
KEMSA Kenya Medical Supplies Agency
KEPI
KIHBS
Kenya Expanded Program on Children Immunization
Integrated Household and Business Survey
KIM Kenya Institute of Management
KNAO Kenya National Audit Office
KNBS
KRA
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Kenya Revenue Authority
LSC Least Cost Selection
M&E
MDAs
Monitoring and Evaluation
Ministries, Departments, and Agencies
MDGs
MGC&SD
Millennium Development Goals
Ministry of Social Development
MED
MOA
Monitoring and Evaluation Department
Ministry of Agriculture
MOF
MOH
MOL
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Health
Ministry of Labour
MPND Ministry of Planning and National Development
MTEF Medium Term Economic Framework
MTR Mid-term Review
NARC National Rainbow Coalition
NASSEP National Sample Survey and Evaluation Program
NGOs
NRB
Non-Governmental Organizations
National Registration Board
NSC National Steering Committee
NSS
PAD
PRGF
National Statistical System
Project Appraisal Document
Poverty Reduction Growth Facility
PPA Project Performance Agreement
PFM
PIU
PM
Public Finance Management
Project Implementation Unit
Procurement Manager
PPF
PRSP
Project Preparation Facility
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PSR Project Status Report
QCBS Quality and Cost Based Selection
RFP Request for Proposals
ROSC Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes
RVP Regional Vice President
SACCO Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies
SAM Social Accounting Matrix
SIMP Strategic Implementation Master Plan
SNA System of National Accounts
STATCAP Statistical Capacity Building Program
SWAp
TSU
Sector Wide Approach
Transition Support Unit
UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework
UNDB United Nations Development Business
UNDP United Nations Development Program
UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFPA United Nations Population Fund
UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund
USAID United States Agency for International Development
WHO World Health Organization
REPUBLIC OF KENYA
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT
Contents
A. Basic Information i
B. Key Dates i
C. Ratings Summary i
D. Sector and Theme Codes ii
E. Bank Staff ii
F. Results Framework Analysis iii
G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs ix
H. Restructuring (if any) ix
I. Disbursement Graph ix
1. Project Context, Development Objectives, and Design 1
2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 5
3. Assessment of Outcomes 11
4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome 20
5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 20
6. Lessons Learned 25
7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners 27
Annex 1: Project Costs and Financing 37
Annex 2: Outputs by Component 38
Annex 3: Economic and Financial Analysis 42
Annex 4: Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes 43
Annex 5: Bank STATCAP Program Eligibility Criteria 44
Annex 6: Detailed Overview of Support to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies 45
Annex 7: List of Supporting Documents 47
Vice President: Makhtar Diop
Country Director: Diarietou Gaye
Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber
Task Team Leader:
Co-Task Team Leader
Gabriel Demombynes
Philip Brynnum Jespersen
i
A. Basic Information
Country: Kenya Project Name:
Development of the
National Statistical
System Project
(STATCAP)
Project ID: P085414 L/C/TF Number(s): 4276-KE
ICR Date: May 23, 2013 ICR Type: Core ICR
Lending Instrument: APL Borrower: REPUBLIC OF
KENYA
Original Total
Commitment: SDR14.1M Disbursed Amount: SDR 8.22
Revised Amount: SDR 8.41 SDR 8.22
Environmental Category: C
Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Planning and National Development (MPND) and Kenya
National Bureau of Statistics
Co-financiers and Other External Partners: Department for International Development
(£6.5m)
B. Key Dates
Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual
Date(s)
Concept Review: 11/12/2003 Effectiveness: 11/1/2004 08/20/2007
Appraisal: 5/19/04 to 5/28/04 Restructuring(s):
Dec 29, 2010
June 22, 2012
September 27, 2012
Approval: 03/27/2007 Mid-term Review: June 2008 November 2009
Closing:
December 31,
2010 September 30, 2012
C. Ratings Summary
C.1 Performance Rating by ICR
Outcomes: Moderately Unsatisfactory
Risk to Development Outcome: Substantial
Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory
Borrower Performance: Moderately Unsatisfactory
C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR)
Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings
Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory
Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing
Agency/Agencies:
Moderately
Unsatisfactory
ii
Overall Bank
Performance: Moderately Satisfactory
Overall Borrower
Performance:
Moderately
Unsatisfactory
C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators
Implementation
Performance Indicators
QAG Assessments
(if any) Rating
Potential Problem Project
at any time (Yes/No): Yes
Quality at Entry
(QEA): None
Problem Project at any
time (Yes/No): Yes
Quality of
Supervision (QSA): None
DO rating before
Closing/Inactive status:
Moderately
Satisfactory Not Applicable
D. Sector and Theme Codes
Original Actual
Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing)
Central government administration 91 91
Sub-national government administration 6 6
Tertiary education 3 3
Original Actual
Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing)
Administrative and civil service reform 17 17
Economic statistics, modeling and forecasting 33 33
Managing for development results 33 33
Poverty strategy, analysis and monitoring 17 17
E. Bank Staff
Positions At ICR At Approval
Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hartwig Schafer (Acting)
Country Director: Johannes C.M. Zutt Colin Bruce
Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Kathie L. Krumm
Project Team Leader: Gabriel Demombynes Lucas Ojiambo
ICR Team Leader: Gabriel Demombynes
ICR Co-Team Leader Philip Brynnum Jespersen
ICR Primary Author: Sulaiman S. Wasty
iii
F. Results Framework Analysis
Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document)
The objective of the project was to establish a sustainable national statistical system to provide
reliable, timely, and accurate data in accordance with international standards through:
(a) strengthening the capacity of the relevant statistical agencies through training and
adoption of new information and communication technology;
(b) carrying out legal and institutional reforms that promote statistical development;
(c) establishing linkages among statistical data producers;
(d) promoting statistical information sharing among data producers and users to strengthen
the quality of decision making; and
(e) developing a data access and dissemination strategy in conformity with relevant
legislation and international good practice.
PDO Indicator(s)
(a) Outcomes
Indicator Baseline Value
Original Target
Values (from
approval
documents)
Formally
Revised Target
Values
Actual Value
Achieved at
Completion or
Target Years
2011-12
Outcome (1): The NSS meets the standards of the GDDS comprehensive framework with regard
to periodicity and timeliness of reporting on: (i) the national accounts; (ii) central Government
operations; (iii) the monetary and banking surveys; and (iv) balance of payments.
1-a) Lag time to
produce full
range of national
accounts
aggregates and
balancing items
in nominal and
real terms
yielding GDP, as
defined in
GDDS
guidelines.
Kenya has
already adopted
the SNA 1993.
It took 24 months
to produce a full
range of NA
aggregates and
balancing items.
National accounts
were not up to
date. CPI needed
to be revised,
consumption of
SNA needed to
be updated, and
CIP needed to be
undertaken.
10-14 months.
Publishing of the
SAM.
Not applicable 9 months.
iv
Date achieved
(including %
achievement
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Fully achieved. Update of the consumption module (based on KIHBS I) completed.
Publishing of SAM take place once Input-Output tables are complete. Good progress toward
improvement on national accounts statistics.
1-b) Lag time to
produce
comprehensive
data on
transactions of
central
Government and
debt, as defined
in GDDS
guidelines.
9 months. Kenya
was in the
process of
adopting
Government
Financial
Statistics (GFS)
2001 Manual.
6-9 months.
Consult with the
source to provide
monthly data.
Not applicable 9 months for the
annual; 3 months
for the quarterly
budget outturns.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Achieved. Quarterly budget outturns are now produced, which was not previously
the case. GFS 2001 adopted and statistics are produced annually. Ministry of Finance produces
quarterly budget outturns.
1-c) Lag time to
produce
comprehensive
data
emphasizing the
coverage of all
banking
institutions, as
defined in
GDDS
guidelines.
1 month.
(Was not well
specified at the
design phase,
should have been
3-4 months)
2-3 months.
Publishing of
monthly monetary
indicators.
Not applicable 1 month.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Partially achieved. Indicator not well specified, but notable progress. CBK produces
weekly bulletin. Most data is now produced with a lag of 1 months compared to 3-4 months when
the project started.
1-d) Lag time to
produce
comprehensive
data on the main
aggregates and
balancing items
of the balance of
payments, as
defined in
GDDS
guidelines.
12 months for
annual BoP.
6-9 months.
Improving the
coverage and
measurement of
all BoP accounts.
Not applicable 9 months and 3
months.
v
Date achieved
(including %
achievement
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Fully achieved. 3 months for the quarterly BoP, and 9 months for the full annual
BoP (more comprehensively than the quarterly).
Outcome (2): Reliable data disseminated timely to the users for the periodic national publications.
2-a) Lag time to
report the CBS’
annual Economic
Survey and the
annual Statistics
Abstract
containing timely
data on the 36
Outcome
Indicators
specified in the
2004/5 Annual
Progress Report.
24 months.
The Statistical
Abstract had no
table presenting
the 36 of the
APR indicators.
12 months.
Release of the
Statistics Abstract
with all of APR
report—with all
MTP indicators on
time.
Not applicable 9 months.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Fully achieved. Although the target was set too low, e.g. too many months. The
M&E Directorate and KNBS should be able to avail the data and produce the Annual Progress
Report more quickly than after nine months. The Annual Progress Report was produced by MED
and launched in May 2012. The production time should be 3-4 months only.
2-b) Lag time to
place the above
targeted
statistical
products, timely
on the CBS
website with
relevant
metadata and
findings.
None.
Statistical
products were
placed on the
CBS website
with great
variability and
often long
delays.
12 months. Not applicable + 12 months.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Partially achieved. KenInfo is accessible online and indicators have been updated to
2011. 2012 indicators not yet uploaded, and newer survey indicators are not yet uploaded.
vi
Outcome (3): Information is updated timely on the IDA 14 outcomes and MDG indicators.
3-a) Lag time
CBS provides
timely reports on
IDA 14 sector
outcomes
annually.
Not applicable
indicator (as
individual
countries were
not expected to
produce annual
reports on IDA
14 indicators).
3 months.
Not applicable Not applicable.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable
Comments: Not applicable. The IDA 14 indicators were never intended to be reported on a
yearly basis at country level.
3-b) Lag time
CBS website
reports provide
timely
information on
progress in
achieving the
MDG indicators
annually.
Not done. No
reports on the
progress in
achieving the
MDGs.
12 months. Not applicable 12 months.
.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Achieved. MDG report published. Annual administrative indicators contained in the
Statistical Abstract, the APR, and KenInfo.
Intermediate Outcomes
Indicator
Baseline Value
Original Target
Values (from
approval
documents)
Formally
Revised Target
Values
Actual Value
Achieved at
Completion or
Target Years
2011-12
1. Adequate policy, legal, and regulatory framework as well as effective institutional
framework are in place.
The regulations
for
operationalizing
the Statistical
Act 2006 are
completed and
The Statistical
Act was assented
in 2006.
Formation of
KNBS.
Compliance with
ISO. Board
approval of Staff
Assessment and
Not applicable KNBS formed.
ISO compliance
expected in 2012-
13.
vii
officially
approved.
new KNBS
contracts issued to
all approved staff.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Partially achieved. Statistical Act in the process of updating to take into account
new developments resulting from the implementation of the 2010 Constitution. The Regulations
were never finalized or gazette.
2. Management and human resources are in place at the CBS and the other entities of the
NSS.
Percentage of
identified
positions filled
as outlined in
the Statistical
Master Plan.
PWC report on
organizational
structure.
Staff transition
process
completed.
Not applicable Staff transition
process completed.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Partially achieved. Employment letters issued to those found suitable for KNBS
employment. Percentage of positions filled not available.
3. Statistical infrastructure developed and made operational.
3.1. Business
register is
revised and
being
maintained
and used.
3.2. Household
sampling
frame
maintained
and
updated.
Business register
being updated.
CPI updated with
new weights.
Training to be
conducted on
Government
statistics.
CIP process
undertaken.
NASSEP
completed, laying
the foundation for
sample surveys
over the next
decade.
Not applicable Business register
updated in 2007
Other tasks
satisfactorily
completed.
Planning delays
meant NASSEP V
was only
completed after
the second
restructuring in
September 2012.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Partially achieved. CPI revision completed and NASSEP V completed (with
exception of unsafe regions in northern Kenya), but revision of national accounts was not
completed by September 30, 2012.
viii
4. Main statistics agencies have developed and upgraded and put into operation their core
statistical programs and disseminated the results.
4.1. Key surveys
(e.g., Kenya
integrated
household
budget survey,
survey of
industrial
production,
agriculture) and
key
administrative
data from the
ministries of
health and
education are
produced and
demonstrated
according to an
agreed schedule.
4.2. Suitably-
anonym zed
public-use micro
data household
survey files
produced and
disseminated
within 12
months of
completing
household
survey data
collection
activities.
DHS Field work
done.
NSS working
groups
established and
work plans
drafted.
Integrated services
survey and
NASSEP.
NSS working
groups to meet
regularly.
Work plans are
implemented with
clear results and
deliveries.
Not applicable KIHBS II not
completed.
Fieldwork of
NASSEP V in
second of three
phases.
Work plans are
results’ focused
with clear outputs
in terms of data
production.
Public-use of
microdata
household survey
files are not
generally available
to the public or
well advertised,
e.g. the KIHBS I.
Public access to
data collected by
KNBS has
improved with the
introduction of the
Kenya Open Data
website.
Date achieved
(including %
achievement)
March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30,
2012
Comments: Fully achieved. SWGs are meeting. NASSEP V was completed, albeit outside the
project timescale. Work plans are results’ focused with clear outputs in terms of data production.
Public-use microdata household survey files are not generally available to the public, e.g. the
KIHBS I. Public access to data collected by KNBS has improved with the introduction of the
Kenya Open Data website.
ix
G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs
No. Date ISR
Archived DO IP
Actual
Disbursements
11 Oct 9, 2012 Moderately
Unsatisfactory
Moderately
Unsatisfactory USD 8.22 millions
H. Restructuring (if any)
Restructuring
Date(s)
Board
Approved
PDO Change
ISR Ratings at
Restructuring
Amount
Disbursed at
Restructuring
in USD
millions
Reason for Restructuring &
Key Changes Made
Project implementation delays,
and cancelation of undisbursed
amount.
DO IP
Dec 17, 2010.
No change in
the PDO S S 4.92
Extension of closing date from
Dec 31, 2010 to June 30, 2012,
reallocation between spending
categories, and adoption of
100% World Bank financing.
Jun 29, 2012.
No change in
the PDO S S 11.31
Extension of the closing date
from June 30, 2012 to
September 30, 2012 and
reallocation between spending
categories
Sep 27 2012
No change in
the PDO MS MU 11.98
Cancellation of outstanding
balance, approximately
USD8.8m and reallocation
between spending categories.
I. Disbursement Graph
1
1. Project Context, Development Objectives, and Design
1.1 Context at Appraisal
1. Kenya was at a crucial moment when the project was prepared. In December 2002,
after experiencing two decades of poor economic performance, Kenyans elected a
government that campaigned for fundamental reform of governance. Despite slower
progress than targeted in its national development plans during the period 2003-2012, the
Government has pursued policies that have stimulated private sector investment, promoted
growth, and improved the wellbeing of citizens. By the end of 2006 the economy had
experienced three consecutive years of growth in excess of 5 percent. The government had
also made attempts to strengthen governance systems and had enacted several pieces of
anti-corruption legislation. It had improved public sector management, including its public
procurement and financial management practices, so that funds are now being used more
effectively to provide services to citizens. Moreover, relationships with development
partners have improved substantially.
2. In 2003 the Government prepared the Investment Program for the Economic
Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (IP-ERS) that recognized and
emphasized the importance of evidence-based policy-making. The monitoring and
evaluation of IP-ERS implementation required production timely, comprehensive, reliable
and accessible statistical information
3. Government had demonstrated its commitment to improving statistics. The
Government had prepared Strategic Plan and a draft Statistics Bill was formally approved
by the cabinet in December 2003. The Statistics Bill was later passed by Parliament and
enacted by the President in 2006. The Act was operationalized in July 2007. Following
cabinet approval of the Strategic Plan, the Government prepared the Strategic
Implementation Master Plan (SIMP) for period 2003-2008. SIMP, prepared with assistance
of the World Bank and other development partners, presented a result-based program of
priority Government activities designed to meet the overall development of country’s
National Statistics System (NSS). Its main objectives were in line with the overarching
context was provided by the IP-ERS, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the
Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), and internationally-accepted quality standards,
such as the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).
4. The project was part of the Bank’s Multi-country Statistical Capacity Building
Program (STATCAP) horizontal Adaptable Program Loan (APL) approved by the
Executive Board in 2004. Under STATCAP program, individual countries obtain separate
loans and/or credits to finance their national statistical capacity building projects, which
will be appraised and prepared following normal provisions for investment lending. The
full eligibility criteria for entry to the STATCAP program are presented in Annex 5.
2
1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved)
5. The objective of this Statistical Capacity Building (STATCAP) project was to
establish a sustainable NSS to provide reliable, timely, and accurate data in accordance
with international standards through:
a) Strengthening the capacity of the relevant statistical agencies through training
and adoption of new information and communication technology (ICT) ;
b) Carrying out legal and institutional reforms that promote statistical
development;
c) Establishing linkages among statistical data producers;
d) Promoting statistical information sharing among data users to strengthen the
quality of decision making; and
e) Developing a data access and dissemination strategy in conformity with relevant
legislation and international good practice.
6. The project’s principal outcome was to build the Government’s capacity to produce
improved statistics to be used to track progress of the key performance indicators and
targets identified in the IP-ERS log frame matrix, and provide feedback to policy-makers
for improving public policy and use of public resources. The indicators to measure the
outcomes consisted of two sets as specified in Annex 6 of the Project Appraisal Document
(PAD), Schedule 5 of the Development Credit Agreement (DCA), and itemized in Section
F above of this ICR.
1.3 Revised PDO and Key Indicators
There were no changes to the PDO.
1.4 Main Beneficiaries
7. KNBS was the first beneficiary and main stakeholder of this project, being the main
producer of statistics in Kenya and the coordinator of the NSS. The next principal
beneficiaries of the program were fourteen statistics units within MDAs. These units were
mainly supported with statistical training and physical infrastructure, which resulted in
some MDAs producing statistics for the first time. In total, more than one thousand people
were trained in statistics, data collection and computer programs across the NSS. The
project increased their ability to track progress toward meeting the IP-ERS goals and the
MDGs; strengthened the country’s economic; monitored progress in the programmatic
budgeting approach of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF); and reduced
budgeting and planning costs, thus enhancing the likelihood meeting the national
development goals.
8. KNBS further benefitted through institutional and organizational support, training,
data development, and physical infrastructure and equipment, including development of
new sampling frames for household and establishment-based surveys and censuses and the
purchase of vehicles and ICT equipment. District statistics offices received training and
3
equipment to improve their capacity. The support was aimed at stimulating sector MDAs to
take ownership initiatives in policy identification, program/projects evaluation, and
outcome measurement.
9. Policy makers and planners: The next set of beneficiary was policy- and decision-
makers in the public and private sectors by having access to higher quality data to inform
their policy decisions and monitor progress. KNBS provides a large share of the statistics in
the Government’s Annual Progress Report, which is intended to inform policy-making,
planning and budgeting.
10. Overall statistical coordination benefitted through the establishment of sector
working groups to strengthen the national statistics system and the promulgation of the new
Statistics Act 2006 that redefined and strengthened the role of KNBS.
11. Non state actors and the general public: This project also aimed to ensure that data
from across government is readily accessible and available in a timely manner for use by
different stakeholders, including academic institutions, Parliament, NGOs, and the general
public. The media was also expected to play an important role by helping to sensitize the
public about the activities of NSS, and also as a means to disseminate statistics to the
general public. The general public also benefitted from the significant number of datasets
released from KNBS and line ministries through the Kenya Open Data website.
12. Development Partners: Development Partners, including the Bank, not only helped
to support the strengthening of the statistical system, but were also key users of the data for
monitoring their own programs and projects, and for carrying out international reporting.
1.5 Original Components
13. The project had the following six components that were formulated to support the
implementation of all the critical sector issues specified in section A.1 and A.2 of the PAD
(“National Statistical System Issues, Status and Progress”) and the SIMP.
Component A: Organizational Development and Governance (US$ 0.45 million1).
This component was designed to support a comprehensive restructuring of the then
Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) including modernization of its field activities to
create a more compact regional structure with well-trained staff. It aimed at
ensuring that institutional capacity supported the formulation and implementation of
statistical policies and programs geared toward towards monitoring and evaluation
of IP-ERS and other government development programs. It supported the
development of an organizational culture that reflected modern principles of public
sector management. The component also supported development of the new
1 The amounts indicate the original amounts allocated to each project component before the three project restructurings
were undertaken.
4
statistics legislation which was promulgated in 2007, coordination of statistical
activities between MDAs.
Component B: Human Resource Development (US$ 3.3 million). This component
supported training and education to strengthen statistical capacity, good governance,
financial risk management and other professional skills. The staff of KNBS and
MDAs was to be trained to use new statistical standards and methodologies,
including collection and analysis of statistics on governance assessment surveys and
to employ new managerial skills.
Component C: Development of Statistical Infrastructure (US$ 1.5 million). This
component provided the necessary infrastructure to strengthen data collection,
processing, analysis and dissemination. It would also support the compilation and
maintenance of: (i) a revised and updated central business register of
establishments; (ii) a national master sampling frame for household based censuses
and surveys; (iii) compendium of concepts, definitions, and methodologies for
application in statistical analysis; and (iv) economic and social classifications.
Component D: Data Development (US$ 6.0 million). This component financed the
adaptation of internationally accepted standards and methodologies in data
collection, compilation, and validation. It also supported development of sectoral
statistics on issues such as demography, civil registration, health, education,
poverty, national accounts, employment, public administration, judiciary, law and
order, agriculture, tourism, and transportation. It further supported activities aimed
at: (i) raising awareness of use of statistical data among data users; and (ii)
developing a data access and dissemination policy in line international good
practice.
Component E: Physical Infrastructure and Equipment (US$ 5.1 million). This
component provided computers and networking equipment, transport and survey
equipment, and office furniture for KNBS and selected MDAs. The infrastructure
and equipment was aimed at enhancing information access and make best use of
information technology channels and storage systems.
Component F: Project Management (US$ 3.93 million). This component supported
effective management and implementation of the project. It financed TA, expertise,
consultant services, operating costs, logistical support, and equipment needed to
operate the project’s Transition Support Unit (TSU) housed within the KNBS.
1.6 Revised Components
There were no changes to the project components.
5
1.7 Other significant changes
14. Three formal restructurings of the STATCAP project took place. Those were two
extensions of the closing date, and a cancellation of the unspent credit balance. The PDOs,
remained unchanged, including the PDO indicators. The full details of the three
restructurings are given below:
15. Following the Government’s request in August 2010, the original project closing
date of December 2010, was extended to June 30, 2012. This was the first restructuring
which also included a reallocation of funds between spending categories and an amendment
of the Credit Agreement to 100 percent financing of project cost categories.
16. A second restructuring was undertaken in June 2012 to extend the project closing
date to September 30, 2012. This restructuring was to allow the Government to complete
the fieldwork on NASSEP V and the installation of the Enterprise Resource Program
(ERP).
17. By mutual agreement, a third restructuring was undertaken in September 2012 to
allow the cancellation of the remaining undisbursed balance of US$8.8 million.
18. The project was closed on September 30, 2012, with a grace period of four months
to settle all financial commitments and close the project books, e.g. until January 30, 2013.
2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes
2.1 Project Preparation, Design, and Quality at Entry
19. A solid analytical base came from the diagnostics work underpinning the SIMP.
Support to the development of the SIMP was provided through a Trust Fund for Statistical
Capacity Building (TFSCB) that also funded workshops to formulate statistical sector
strategies. The project was generally well designed to address the key statistical issues in
need of strengthening, including the actions proposed in the national strategic plan.
20. The design of the approved project was an adaptable program credit under the aegis
of a multi-country STATCAP facility. All the credit eligibility requirements had been met
and lessons of experience from other countries were reflected in the project design. These
included the requirement of an integrated work plan and coordinated efforts for statistical
capacity building in KNBS and across government ministries and agencies. In response to
previous failures due to over-reliance on technical assistance, the project proposed an
integration of staff of the Transitional Staff Unit (TSU) within KNBS to ensure greater
sustainability. Consultation and coordination with other partners’ activities2 began at
project inception. Special attention was given to involve key stakeholders, such as MDAs,
2Ongoing initiatives from IMF, EU, DFID, SIDA, GTZ, UNICEF, AFRISTAT, AFRITAC and Paris 21 were taken into account.
6
development partners, academic and research institutions, and other users of statistics data
users in the design of the project.
21. Government’s ownership and commitment was assessed to be strong. Additionally,
the GOK had demonstrated a strong commitment to strengthening the capacity of the CBS
and other statistical units in government line ministries, departments, and agencies
(MDAs), especially with the preparation of the Strategic Plan, enactment and
operationalization of the Statistics Act.
22. Financial management risks were considered Substantial but were expected to be
reduced to Modest once proposed remedies for Governance and corruption were effectively
implemented through: (a) external audits by the Kenya National Audit Office; (b) internal
controls; and (c) effective fiduciary and complaint-handling arrangements. The adequacy of
the procurement functions was handled through the creation of a Public Procurement
Oversight Authority (established in 2007) as mandated by the Public Procurement and
Disposal Act of 2005. Although, the Public Procurement and Oversight Authority has not
yet carried out a procurement assessment for KNBS.
23. The results framework, although capturing the dimensions of data production time,
did not sufficiently capture activities relating to data quality and dissemination. Some of the
indicators should have been more precisely defined, both with respect to baselines and
targets, and two of the PDO indicators on IDA 14 and the MDG indicators were incorrectly
specified as annual dissemination does not apply to most of the higher level outcome
indicators. The lack of focus on data dissemination, one of the project weaknesses, reflects
the general emphasis in the Bank at the time on infrastructure development and data
development.
2.2 Implementation
24. In summary, the project generally made very good progress on institutional reform,
human capacity development, data and physical infrastructure development, but less
progress on financial management, procurement, and information dissemination and micro-
data access. CBS was transformed from being a department in Ministry of Planning and
National Development (MoPND) to KNBS, a semi-autonomous agency with its own
Board, Directors, and staff. More than one thousand staff were trained across the national
statistical system. Across fourteen line ministries data production was increased, in some
cases data was produced for the first time. A comprehensive overview of support to MDAs
is presented in Annex 6. The project supported thirteen of the fifteen surveys undertaken by
KNBS during the period 2005-2012, including important economic surveys (that almost
certainly would not have been undertaken without the project) to improve the national
accounts. However, most of the produced data is not yet publicly available on KNBS’
website or on the websites of the supported MDAs, and financial management and
procurement weaknesses identified in the preparation phase were never satisfactorily
overcome.
7
25. At the beginning of the project implementation, procurement, and financial
management functions were being undertaken by MoPND and neither CBS nor MPND had
ever implemented a World Bank project before. Thus time was needed for the TSU to
become fully operational and familiar with Bank’s procurement, financial management,
planning and M&E procedures. Oversight and coordination mechanisms for the NSS
Strategic Plan were ensured through the National Steering Committee (NSC).
26. Project implementation process commenced in April 2004 soon after the Bank’s
approval of the US$2 million Project Preparation Facility (PPF). It was anticipated that the
Bank then would approve the project in July 2005. However, the submission of the project
package to the Board was delayed for two years because the Bank management raised
issues with the overall public sector management in Kenya that were beyond the control of
the project. Thus the project did not get approved by the Bank until March 2007, and only
became effective in May 2007. Due to the above-mentioned delays in the Bank’s approval
of the credit, most of the project’s priority activities were initially funded by the PPF and a
DFID grant.
27. Project’s implementation was further delayed due to factors related to the political
violence in the aftermath of the December 2007 elections. These resulted in a year-long
cease in all external funding (including from the Bank).
28. Performance in procurement and financial management was weak throughout
project implementation despite the TSU employing a qualified procurement manager and a
financial management expert. Procurement remained a problematic issue during most of
the implementation period due to lack of capacity in KNBS. The procurement manager
hired by the project under TSU did not mentor staff working on procurement tasks as had
been envisaged in the PAD. Instead the TSU procurement manager ended up working
alone and frequently committing errors. Non-adherence to the Bank procurement guidelines
led to prolonged discussions between the project staff of the Bank and KNBS, resulting in
delays in the granting of no objections by the Bank. It further resulted in mis-procurement
of some of the bids identified during the Procurement Review. As a result, the final
procurement rating was unsatisfactory.
2.2.1 Project disbursement
29. The final disbursement rate of the project is relatively low at approximately 62%.
However, before the eighteen month extension in December 2010 the disbursement rate
was only 24%. The disbursement rate began to improve after the Mid-Term Review (MTR)
in November 2009, when a process was put in place for the Bank to have monthly meetings
with the KNBS Board to monitor the implementation progress. The completion of the
Population Census between August 2009 and August 2010 also enabled KNBS
management to pay more attention to the project priority activities, especially in the area of
economic statistics, but also highlighted the constraints of KNBS’s management in being
able to manage a number of large statistical activities at the same time. The project
restructuring also contributed to increasing the rate of disbursement, since it facilitated
shifting funds away from non-performing areas to priority activities.
8
2.2.2 Human resource development
30. The training and recruitment of staff by the project resulted in a significant increase
in the quality and quantity of statistics produced by KNBS and project beneficiary MDAs.
As part of the reforms undertaken after the enactment of the new Statistics Act 2006, the
Director General and new management staff were appointed by the KNBS Board, all the
former staff of CBS were interviewed and suitable ones were hired afresh by the KNBS.
31. Significant progress has been made in relation to human resource development,
where particular attention has been given to providing basic training in statistical
procedures and the use of relevant computer hardware and software. In total, over 4000
staff from KNBS and across government underwent various training activities. However,
more than half of these were sensitization-training seminars for capacity building in
collecting vital statistics. More than 1,000 staff from MDAs was trained in basic statistics
and computer applications related to data management. Other areas covered were data
analysis, report writing, project cycle management, and geographical management systems.
32. The staff capacity improvements mentioned above has impacted positively on the
production and use of statistics in the county and there is generally a positive perception of
the NSS among data users and producers and appreciation of the improvements in data
coverage, timeliness, and reliability of many official statistics.
2.2.3 Online data dissemination and outreach
33. Despite slow progress in data dissemination, the project has contributed to availing
datasets from KNBS, and indirectly to statistical capacity development across MDAs,
which has helped generate data for the Kenya Open Data Initiative launch in 2011.
However, the Open Data Initiative is still fragile, mainly because of insufficient data flows
from both KNBS and MDAs to the data platform. KenInfo, the online database housed in
KNBS for the Mid-Term Priorities (MTP) indicators, has not been seen as a priority
activity and as a consequence most of the indicators are out-of-date.
34. Lastly, links with universities failed to materialize. For a number of reasons, KNBS
was unable to identify a local university that was expected to strengthen teaching and
training in official statistics at both professional and sub-professional levels. This was seen
as an important part of the human resources component in the PAD, and was raised in
virtually all project supervision missions. Thus KNBS did not develop any twinning
arrangement with a suitably qualified and experienced university or teaching institution in
or outside Kenya.
9
2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation, and Utilization
2.3.1 M&E design
35. In order to monitor the implementation process an institutional framework was
established. The Government set up a National Steering Committee (NSC) that was
responsible for overall project implementation. It provided a channel through which the
TSU informed MDAs’ top management about the progress, prevailing bottlenecks, and
policy direction required for smooth operation and implementation of the project. The
NSC was later replaced by the KNBS Board that came into being after the promulgation of
the Statistics Act in 2007.
2.3.2 M&E implementation
36. To track progress toward the desired outcomes, KNBS, through the TSU, was
expected to conduct M&E activities through quarterly Interim Financial Management
Reports (IFRs) and the Government Auditors annual reports, joint government/donors
supervision mission, including mid-term reviews. M&E activities were initially monitored
by NSC and later by the KNBS Board. Progress against the agreed results in the M&E
framework was monitored on a regular basis both during supervision mission as well as
during meetings between the Bank team and the TSU team on various project
implementation issues.
2.3.3 M&E utilization
37. The M&E system has generally performed below expectations. Although the M&E
system focused on the activities identified in the annual work plans during project
implementation period, there was insufficient focus on monitoring the outcomes defined in
the project results framework. The project M&E framework was regularly reviewed jointly
by the TSU and Bank teams, but despite the problems identified with the results framework
the indicators were not re-specified in a project restructuring. In the early phases of the
project, reports, such as audit reports, progress reports, and work plans, were produced as
planned. However, at later stages of the project results progress reports were not produced
regularly. The quarterly IRFs reports were produced regularly at the end of each quarter.
2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance
38. Safeguard Compliance: The project was not considered to have any adverse
environmental impact.
39. Fiduciary Compliance: The initial assessments of procurement and financial
management capacity demonstrated substantial weaknesses. To substantially mitigate these
risks, a Transition Support Unit (TSU) was established and staffed in KNBS, meeting
Bank’s conditions of effectiveness. Similarly, a Project Implementation Manual and a
Manual of Procedures were prepared and cleared by the Bank prior to project effectiveness.
The TSU staff consisted of a project coordinator, a financial management specialist, a
10
procurement specialist, a technical manager, IT expert and HRD expert. Internal
management control was carried out by KNBS. A computerized financial management and
accounting system was developed using the project funds. External audits were carried out
each year by Government Auditor General. Frequent joint supervision missions were
carried out by the Bank’s project team, the government and other donors supporting
statistics.
40. Procurement remained a problematic issue during most of the implementation
period mainly due to lack of capacity in KNBS. The procurement manager who was hired
by the project did not have support staff to work on procurement tasks as had been
envisaged in the PAD. KNBS did not make any effort to have skills transferred from the
TSU procurement manager to KNBS staff as envisaged in the PAD. The problem was
raised repeatedly by the Bank’s supervision team, and the KNBS management repeatedly
promised to hire procurement staff just for this role but did not follow through with action.
2.5 Post-completion Operation/Next Phase
41. Government’s actions show that many of the project’s reforms and changes are
likely to be sustained. Since legal and institutional reforms carried out under the project
have been enshrined in legislation, they are unlikely to be reversed. KNBS has used its
own resources to set up a national statistics coordination unit within one of its directorates,
and this unit is expected to carry out the NSS coordination functions formerly undertaken
by the TSU. The recurrent activities of KNBS and the MDAs are being funded by
government and routine data production and reporting of some economic statistics has
continued sustaining the changes brought about by the project. A new Statistics
Development Strategy is being prepared for 2013/14-2017/18, focusing on the (a) review of
the legal, institutional and organizational framework to take account of the county
governments created by the new constitution; (b) further improvement of the statistical data
production and analyses; (c) improvement of data storage and diffusion mechanism; (d) the
strengthening of human and physical capacity; and (e) improvement of the statistics
dissemination and micro-data access mechanism. The government has indicated that it will
be approaching the country’s development partners to finance certain parts of the proposed
strategy. Particularly items (b), (d) and (e), which require large expenditures relative to the
KNBS’s overall budget. But it is unlikely that the progress made on economic statistics will
be sustained without additional Bank support, and no other donor has indicated its
willingness to support economic statistics.
42. As mentioned above, at the time the initial credit was approved it was anticipated
that if the first phase of STATCAP achieved its objectives, and if the GOK required further
financing to implement its long-term strategy, a second phase would be considered. Despite
the continued financing need, the Bank has not considered a second phase of the APL given
the lack of progress with respect to meeting the project development objectives on data
dissemination. Nevertheless, with the promulgation of the new constitution in August 2010,
the success of the Government‘s efforts to strengthen the statistics sector rests on a gradual
improvement in the capacity and performance of the county statistics offices and their
integration into the national statistical system. This requires the continued provision of
11
technical advice and support, to help counties to prepare their strategic plans and,
especially, to support their implementation. The Bank may well be able to play an
important role in supporting the dialogue with counties as well as helping to share
experiences, expertise (particularly through South-South dialogue) from other Bank
STATCAP projects. Such an engagement would provide access to high-level advice,
technical support and examples of best practice from other countries.
3. Assessment of Outcomes
3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design, and Implementation
3.1.1 Relevance of the objectives
43. Relevance of the STATCAP project to the PRSP and CAS: The PDOs of the
STATCAP project were highly relevant to the country context and the priorities of GoK,
the Bank, and external Development Partners. The project was fully aligned with the four
objectives of the IP-ERS and the Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) which
supported the Government’s efforts to implement the IP-ERS. Both the IP-ERS and the
CAS highlight the importance of reliable on regular statistical information for
implementation monitoring and sound policy-making.
3.1.2 Relevance of the design
44. The project was developed based upon the Government’s National Statistics
Strategic Plan and its implementation provided the resources to achieve important parts of
the strategic plan that were otherwise infeasible. By establishing the statistics sector
working groups and encouraging preparation of integrated work plans, the project created a
strong coordination vehicle for KNBS and MDAs to prioritize their statistical activities, and
to avoid duplication of surveys. The project also laid the foundation for future investments
in the sector by government and development partners.
45. The monitoring framework was designed under the Global STATCAP umbrella
program, and contained a mix of DPO indicators focusing on both data production and
dissemination (although the focus was predominantly on data production and capacity
development). However, some of the indicators, such as reporting annually on the IDA14
and /MDG outcomes were incorrectly specified and not applicable since this is not a
requirement for individual countries.
46. Further, project preparation would have benefited from a rigorous Governance and
Anti-Corruption (GAC) analysis that could have focused on a comprehensive set of issues:
political economy, fiduciary safeguards, and transparency and accountability. In this
context, though fiduciary aspects were adequately addressed, a thorough GAC analysis
would have enabled the highlighting of: (a) the institutional and bureaucratic constraints
(i.e., the prevalent “informal rules of the game”); and (b) the channels of beneficiary
participation in decision-making and independent means of verification of the project’s
progress.
12
3.1.3 Relevance of the implementation
47. There were three factors that impacted negatively on the project’s implementation
process: 1. The post- election violence at the end of 2007 had an adverse effect on the
project’s work plan as no fieldwork activities or disbursements could be undertaken during
the first half of 2008, 2. KNBS’ preparation for the 2009 Population and Housing Census
entailed using virtually all its staff in the field preparation exercise, and 3. Capacity of the
TSU staff particularly with respect to FM and procurement. Thus fewer staff members were
available to carry out other statistical activities contained in the SIMP program. These
factors led to a considerable delay in implementation of the project activities, and as a
consequence government had to request for an 18 months project extension.
3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives
48. Despite the delay in implementation and initial low disbursement rates the
STATCAP project made significant progress toward attaining the PDOs. Most significantly
was the progress on data production, institutional reform, capacity and infrastructure
development (both physical and statistical), and coordination of the NSS. Conversely, the
project fell short of meeting its objectives in the areas of data dissemination (including
micro data access), and project management — the latter mainly due to weaknesses in
procurement and financial management.
13
Table 1: Summary of progress against the PDO indicator targets
Indicator Baseline Target Actual
1-a) Lag time to produce full
range of national accounts
aggregates and balancing
items in nominal and real
terms yielding GDP, as
defined in GDDS guidelines.
It took 24 months to produce
a full range of NA aggregates
and balancing items.
National accounts were not
up to date. CPI needed to be
revised, consumption of SNA
needed to be updated, and
CIP needed to be undertaken.
10-14 months
9 months
1-b) Lag time to produce
comprehensive data on
transactions of central
Government and debt, as
defined in GDDS guidelines.
9 months. Kenya was in the
process of adopting
Government Financial
Statistics (GFS) 2001
Manual.
6-9 months
9 months for
the annual;
3 months for
the quarterly
budget
outturns.
1-c) Lag time to produce
comprehensive data
emphasizing the coverage of
all banking institutions, as
defined in GDDS guidelines.
1 month
(Was not well specified at
the design phase, should
have been 3-4 months)
2-3 months
Publishing of
monthly
monetary
indicators.
1 month
1-d) Lag time to produce
comprehensive data on the
main aggregates and
balancing items of the
balance of payments, as
defined in GDDS guidelines.
12 months for annual BoP 6-9 months.
Improving the
coverage and
measurement
of all BoP
accounts.
9 months and
3 months
2-a) Lag time to report the
CBS’ annual Economic
Survey and the annual
Statistics Abstract containing
timely data on the 36
Outcome Indicators specified
in the 2004/5 Annual
Progress Report.
24 months
The Statistical Abstract had
no table presenting the 36 of
the APR indicators.
12 months
Release of the
Statistics
Abstract with
all of APR
report—with
all MTP
indicators on
time.
9 months
2-b) Lag time to place the
above targeted statistical
products, timely on the CBS
website with relevant
metadata and findings.
None.
Statistical products were
placed on the CBS website
with great variability and
often long delays.
12 months + 12 months
3-a) Lag time CBS provides
timely reports on IDA 14
Not applicable indicator (as
individual countries were not
3 months
Not applicable
14
sector outcomes annually. expected to produce annual
reports on IDA 14
indicators).
3-b) Lag time CBS website
reports provide timely
information on progress in
achieving the MDG
indicators annually.
Not done. No reports on the
progress in achieving the
MDGs.
12 months. 12 months
49. Of the first four PDO indicators that focused on reductions in data production time,
all four achieved their targets. The production of the production time of the full range of
national accounts was reduced from previously 24 months to 9 months in 2012. In addition,
KNBS developed a framework for compilation of quarterly GDP series, which have been
produced regularly since July 2007. The lag time for the production of Government
Financial Statistics is still nine months; however in addition, Ministry of Finance now
produces quarterly budget outturns, which was not produced previously. Similarly with
STATCAP support the Central Bank now produces weekly bulletins of banking institutions
and the production time for balance of payment statistics has been reduced from 12 to nine
months.
50. Of the four indicators that focused on data dissemination the first one on publication
of the Mid-Term Priority (MTP) indicators was reduced from 24 to 9 months, although the
main vessel for dissemination of the MTP indicators is now the Annual Progress Report
produced by the M&E Directorate in Ministry of Planning with input from line ministries
and KNBS. A further reduction in the production time of the APR is highly desirable as a
first draft usually is available four months after the beginning of the fiscal year. The MTP
indictors are now uploaded to the national development indicator database, KenInfo,
although the lag time is still more than a year after they have been published by MED. The
Indicator on annual reports on the IDA 14 indicators is not well specified as this was never
the intention of the IDA 14 results indicator framework. However, some of the IDA 14
indicators are published in the annual MDG reports that are prepared with input from
KNBS. It should be noted that both the IDA 14 and MDG indicators contain a mix of
survey and administrative data that are available at different intervals.
51. Therefore, as outlined in Project Framework Analysis, six out of the seven PDO
targets were met. Annex 2 contains additional details on progress against the intermediate
output indicators by component. In retrospect, the results framework should have placed a
stronger focus on statistical information dissemination and micro-data access, and included
indicators that measured the number of produced survey reports and data that are available
online for user analysis. For the indicators on public finance, banking institutions, and IDA
14 it would have been useful to reformulate the indicators through a project restructuring so
that they captured the intended progress more precisely. At the moment, the results
framework does not fully capture the successes that the project contributed to in these
areas.
52. KNBS has now been transformed from a Government department (CBS) to a semi-
autonomous agency, and GOK has completed the staff transition process, including
15
assimilation of nearly all Government staff that had been seconded to KNBS (some staff
opted to remain GoK staff). The project financed 13 out of the 15 surveys under the KNBS
Strategic Plan (2008-12), including a number of important economic surveys that have
significantly improved the compilation of the national accounts. GOK also funded the
majority of the 2009 Census exercise, whose basic report was produced in one year—one
of the best results for the production of census reports in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Consistent progress has also been made across the NSS, both with respect to data
production from administrative records kept by MDAs, and coordination of data producers
across selected sectors.
53. In the framework of coordination organized by KNBS, the dialogue between KNBS
and MDAs has significantly improved with the establishment of sector working groups and
an integrated work plan, KNBS is now able to provide more technical support to the
MDAs. Staff members if the beneficiary MDAs have received specific training and
improved their skills, and additional qualified staff have been hired by KNBS. Statistics
units in main MDAs have developed and/or upgraded and put into operation their core
statistical programs and disseminated the results via the main KNBS publications such as
the Economic Survey and Statistics Abstract. Internationally accepted standards and
methodologies are used in data production as per GDDS recommendations and sound and
well-accepted statistical techniques are used for data collection, compilation, and analysis.
KNBS now has a more efficient senior management team trained in procurement, financial
and administrative management and in leadership. Several MDAs have recognized the
importance of statistics and have created statistics units and other related department. This
has been the case in the Ministries of Trade, Industry, Gender and Social Services, and the
Police, Probation and Judiciary Departments,
54. Data supported by the project were integrated into critical strategy documents. The
IP-ERS annual reports (APR), and the Vision 2030 strategy have made an extensive use of
KNBS data. Through the project support, the KNBS was able to produce most indicators
for monitoring the various dimensions of poverty with the country. The independent
evaluation of KNBS performance in November 2010confirmed that KNBS has played a
major role in the regular production of data on living conditions of households (particularly
poverty). Basic statistical publications are produced regularly and timely. KNBS data
quality has also been widely recognized as good.
55. Macroeconomic statistical improvements are critical, particularly national accounts
and consumer price indices (CPI). The project supported move from the System of
National Accounts1968 (SNA68) to SNA93. The SNA93 represents a significant increase
in the coverage of national accounts through the inclusion of the informal sector and
tourism sector. The project also assisted KNBS to develop a framework for compilation
quarterly GDP figures, which are now produced regularly. It further supported to revision
of the CPI series, including adoption of a new CPI computation method that was introduced
in 2009. The project also helped to improve the quality and timely production of external
trade data that are indispensable for the compilation of the balance of payments. The
production of external trade data was reduced from three months to one month. The project
enabled KNBS to carry out a Census of Establishments, whose results were used to compile
16
a new register of business establishment to be used for establishment-based sample surveys.
A register of establishments had not been updated since 1992, despite its importance in
sampling for surveys relating to industrial production, domestic trade and distribution.
56. There has been limited accessibility to targeted statistical products. Generally
speaking, significant improvement in the statistical data production was achieved, as
compared to the situation prior to the project implementation. This improvement could be
seen from the expansion of the data presented in the Economic Survey, the Statistics
Abstract and publication of the reports of virtually all the surveys undertaken by KNBS
during the project implementation period. Despite the progress in data production, there
has been limited progress in user access to the data and other statistical information
produced by most the MDAs. The Censuses and surveys undertaken by KNBS are
traditionally launched in hardcopy with only headline statistics being made available in
electronic (pdf) format online. Access to anonymized micro data is limited and KNBS’
dissemination framework is largely viewed as functioning poorly by data users. The only
indicators that are regularly updated on KNBS' website are the monthly CPI, the quarterly
GDP aggregates, and some basic monthly economic indicators, such as coffee and tea
prices. Most reports of the economic and social surveys completed over the decades are not
available online. Access to anonymized micro-data is not widespread, and KNBS’s
dissemination framework is therefore largely viewed as functioning poorly by the data
users. Therefore, more efforts would be required on the part of KNBS and GOK to provide
wider access to and enable utilization of economic and social surveys and the aggregate
macroeconomic developments.
3.3 Efficiency
57. The economic benefits of the project are expected to derive from three main
sources. First, improvement in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies to result
in broader coverage and higher-quality data. Second, better quality data to enhance the
potential for evidence-based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. Third,
the project to help address the significant costs of poor decisions made on the basis of
missing or inaccurate data.
58. The project is not amenable to a financial analysis because national statistical
offices have very limited opportunities to recover costs, apart from selling compendiums of
data. National statistics are generally considered public goods and are generally financed
from Government revenue. Therefore, only marginal financial returns are expected from
this project. However, indirectly, the project is expected to promote improved allocation of
resources, enhanced social monitoring of the impact of Government spending and reduction
in revenue leakages by providing more accurate information on economic activity to the
public at large, and the tax authorities in particular.
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3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating
Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory
59. The overall outcome is rated moderately unsatisfactory based on the fact that
despite the fact that project has helped to increase data production and trigger the long term
institutional reform process being carried out by the Government, the project never
overcame issues related to financial management, procurement and data dissemination
which led to low disbursements and slow pace of implementation. While most of the PDO
indicators met their targets, progress on implementation of some of the key project
components was slower than expected. While the majority of the intermediate indicators
were also achieved, additional justification for the overall rating of moderately
unsatisfactory is given below.
60. The project was a relevant and timely, but not fully efficient development
intervention, as highlighted in the sections 3.1-3.3 above. The project was well prepared to
address the evolving needs for developing NSS in Kenya. Toward this objective, major
advances were made in strengthening the institutional infrastructure for statistical capacity,
most notably the establishment of KNBS as a coordination agency, provision of goods and
training in the MDAs, and the financing/conducting/reporting of essential surveys.
61. Whereas, the project made significant achievements despite implementation delays
and mixed results on fiduciary and procurement related issues, the shortcomings are
significant and their impact on decision-making has reduced the use of the statistics
produced. Nevertheless, the production, quality and frequency of statistics produced by
KNBS and beneficiary MDAs have improved substantially. The national statistical system
is now operating in a better-coordinated and regulated environment. Working conditions for
KNBS staff have significantly improved and a larger and more qualified work force that
was hired by KNBS is ensuring that progress will be sustainable. In light of these
improvements, shortcomings in reaching the targets set for the outcomes are not expected
to have significant effect on the impact of the project. The establishment of sector working
groups and an NSS coordination unit in KNBS which will be fully in charge of
coordinating the entire statistics system continue to ensure improve coherence of data by
reviewing and approving the methods used and ensuring that statistical norms are respected
by all MDAs.
62. The development objective was sound and rated Satisfactory. It responded to
the needs identified in Kenya’s IP-ERS, and Vision 2030 strategies, as well as MDGs, and
meeting the results-based management requirements of development partners (e.g. the
Bank’s CAS). As stated above, the project achieved most of its objectives and created a
stronger national statistical system that will effectively contribute to the monitoring and
evaluation of development programs.
63. The project design is rated Moderately Satisfactory. Although it addressed the
key issues raised in the results matrix of the SIMP and supported its implementation, the
inclusion of 14 MDAs as project beneficiaries was ambitious, and contributed to the
challenge of implementing large and complex annual work plans in a timely manner. Some
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of the PDO indicators in the results matrix were not well specified and should have been
changed through a project restructuring. Additionally, they did not focus sufficiently on the
issue of data dissemination, which was one of the main challenges for the project.
However, it should be noted, that the project was one of the first sector-wide approaches for
statistics, and thus there was little experience on which to base the M&E system.
Following the mid-term review, challenges and lessons learned were addressed and applied
to improve project performance during the last three years of the project. Performance
during the second half of the project was therefore significantly improved with a greater
focus on results and higher disbursement rates.
64. The implementation of the project is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. The
implementation of the project supported increased production of better quality and more
timely data, particularly in the area of economic statistics. However; the many challenges
faced by the project significantly reduced overall progress. Whereas statistical periodicals
are published regularly and this trend seems sustainable, survey reports and data are not
generally free for users to access, unless through KNBS’s library. However, the project
supported technical and management training for a significant number of managers at
KNBS and there is now growing evidence for increased FM and procurement capacity in
KNBS itself. Likewise, training of statisticians and adoption of up-to-date techniques and
methods have improved data accuracy, timeliness and consistency among sectoral statistics.
As a consequence, a better coordinated statistical system has evolved. These achievements
have significantly strengthened the organizational and technical capacities of KNBS and
the beneficiary MDAs. However, although data production improved significantly, public
access to data was still limited to traditional hard copy dissemination, and KNBS has made
little efforts to encourage on-line data access and dissemination of data in useable
electronic formats. Furthermore, the project suffered several implementation bottlenecks—
stemming from (a) FM and procurement irregularities leading to a poor disbursement rate
and delays; and (b) accordingly, failure to complete several of the important tasks (e.g.,
implementing KIHBS II, finalizing NASSEP V, and timely collation and dissemination of
the statistical information to the general public).
65. In summary, because of the challenges described above the outputs of STATCAP
project are yet to be translated into sustained outcomes—which should be the focus of
potential follow-on operations by the Bank, GOK, and Development Partners. Specifically,
concerted efforts will be required to move beyond the emphasis on data production, and
clearly identify the utilization of statistical indicators to measure public sector performance
with the aim of improving delivery of essential services. This will require improvements
in administrative statistics.
66. Overall, the project met the main objective of reforming KNBS and creating
conditions and incentives for the MDAs to improve statistics. However, it did not meet
expectations with respect to data dissemination. As long as the established sector working
groups and preparation of integrated work plans are sustained, with additional capacity
building and knowledge transfer, the system currently in place will help to improve
collection of key statistical indicators and improve the overall statistical capacity at KNBS
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and across MDAs. Nevertheless, in order to improve institutional effectiveness KNBS
needs to strengthen its internal financial management and procurement functions.
3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts
(a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development
67. The loan did not have any direct impact on poverty reduction. However by
improving statistics and building institutional capacity in KNBS and MDAs, it initiated
reforms that will improve monitoring of poverty and social data. The standardization of
MDAs statistics supported by the project focuses on the coordination and harmonization of
key statistical activities that are used to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the
government’s poverty programs. These key poverty-related statistical activities produced
by the project beneficiaries include the education and literacy statistics, disability statistics,
morbidity and fertility statistics as well as price statistics. All of them are critical element
of the policymaking and would contribute to more efficient and targeted social assistance
thus alleviating poverty in the country.
(b) Institutional Change/Strengthening
68. The impact of the project on institutional strengthening originates from the design
of the operation supporting institutional and legal reform in the area of statistics. One of
the project’s objectives was to help Kenya set up an institutional framework for better
statistics. The main institutional impact of the reforms supported by the Credit is based on
the legal and institutional reform listed below. Increased independence of the statistical
system, which was effected through the promulgation of a new Statistics Act in 2006, the
appointment of a Director General, six directors to run the KNBS and independent Board to
set strategic priorities, and the creation of a semi-autonomous government agency. Prior to
the project, the Bureau was headed by a director and one deputy. The project supported a
reorganization of KNBS into six directorates. This resulted in the creation of a Director
General and six directors – all recruited through a competitive process. Thus KNBS
benefitted from the recruitment of a large number of new staff at management level and
intensive training of the lower level staff. Most MDAs became aware of the importance of
statistics and some created statistics units that are working closely with KNBS.
(c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative):
69. There were no unintended outcomes.
3.6 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops
Not Applicable.
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4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome
Rating: Substantial.
70. The STATCAP project intended to lay the foundations for future GOK support to
the NSS in Kenya. GOK was expected to gradually increase its budget allocations to
KNBS and other key MDAs. There is, however, insufficient information on the financial
contribution of GOK to the Strategic Plan. Certainly, the current levels of Government
funding are insufficient for the KNBS’s current work program. As a consequence, a
number of the areas, particularly in economic statistics, where the project contributed to
updating the baseline statistics there is a risk that data will be increasingly out of date
without additional financial support from GoK or DPs. To date, neither the Bank, nor
DFID, has committed to a follow-on project - though there are indications that some donors
may be interested in financing a part of the budget for the next KIHBS II Survey.
71. A number of substantial risks to the defined project development objectives were
identified during the design of the project, including government commitment to statistics,
capacity issues, financial sustainability, a complex institutional setup, and weak financial
management, procurement, and audit systems. Whereas government commitment to the
national statistical system has remained strong, the commitment to disseminate statistics
from KNBS and line ministries remain less clear, and data users are still facing difficulties
accessing both survey and routine data. There has been good progress in addressing
capacity issues, both with respect to training, coordination, and quality assurance across the
national statistical system. There has also been some progress with respect to addressing
audit qualifications identified in the national audit reports. However, within KNBS
financial management and procurement challenges have persisted and KNBS has not yet
had an external procurement review by the Public Procurement Oversight Authority. There
has been substantial progress with respect to the institutional setup with the passing of the
Statistical Act and the establishment of the national statistical system, including the four
statistics sector working groups. These are structures that have continued to be operational
after project closure.
72. The sustainability of the achievements depends on a concerted effort by external
development partners and GOK to provide additional finance and technical assistance for
statistical capacity building.
5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance
5.1 Bank Performance
(a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
73. The project preparation phase accurately identified the problems Kenya was facing
and the need for developing a SIMP to be used for implementation of priority activities
identified in the Government’s Statistics Strategic Plan. The project was properly designed
to address the key issues raised and to carry out the actions proposed in the Plan. Lessons
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from other operations and projects and complementarities with ongoing initiatives were
taken into consideration. Attention was given to involve all partners and stakeholders in
the preparation and design of the project. The project components and activities were fully
in line with the overall country development objectives. A sound institutional setup was
proposed with a TSU established within the KNBS and under its authority. Two areas that
needed management attention in project preparation, peer review, and approval, especially
in hindsight, were:
a) PFM and procurement risks were correctly flagged as Substantial risks, but the
mitigation efforts through the establishment of a TSU proved to be insufficient
because KNBS did not avail its FM and procurement staff for mentoring by TSU
staff as it was envisaged in the PAD. Most supervision efforts concentrated on
resolving PFM and procurement irregularities rather than focusing on
implementation progress and the likelihood of achieving the PDOs.
b) Though the project components were not particularly complex, there were two
inherent risks of government commitment to full implementation of activities
identified in the SIMP. The post-2007 election violence slowed down field data
collection activities for key statistical surveys for nearly a year. The heavy schedule
for conducting the countrywide Population Census in 2009 entailed use of all KNBS
management staff in this area. The uncertainty about the date of the elections
originally scheduled for August 2012 (and which took place in March 2013) also
created substantial challenges for planning survey fieldwork. Thus other project
activities were put on hold during this period. Future project preparation should
take consideration of such events that tend to adversely affect implementation of
key activities within the project program.
(b) Quality of Supervision Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
74. The overall supervision was moderately satisfactory. The ICR mission found that
project supervision improved appreciably in the last two years of the project period. Bank
responses to the issues raised by government counterpart were generally timely. The
change from the first half of the project is attributable to: (a) Increase in the size of Bank
team working on the project; and (b) hiring of in-house statistician (hired by DFID) who
worked on the project implementation activities on a full-time basis. Supervision missions
were satisfactory with clear and detailed aide-memoires, including good input from the
Bank financial management and procurement specialists. The Bank task team paid
attention to FM issues throughout the implementation period. The Bank FM and
procurement specialists joined most project supervision missions and exercised close
supervision of the TSU’s financial management work and the auditor’s performance. The
ISRs were regularly produced and reflected the progress of the project or lack thereof. The
main weak point related to the Bank’s fiduciary (FM and Procurement) reviews which were
undertaken too late in the project implementation period, and therefore their
recommendations could not be adequately addressed before in good time as the project
closure date approached. In hindsight, the Bank should also have insisted on improved staff
22
in the TSU procurement section and including a reformulation of the PDO indicators in the
2010 restructuring. At the time, the option of not extending the project was weighed against
the potential benefits of realizing additional project objectives, such as implementing the
master household sampling frame and conducting the next KIHBS II.
75. Financial Management (FM) was moderately unsatisfactory. Project FM also
experienced difficulties during the implementation period. There was frequent turnover of
finance managers and project accountants. The turnover contributed to qualified audit
reports received from both the Kenya National Audit Office on the annual financial
statements and issues raised by the Bank’s FM Specialist on the quarterly financial
management reports and supervision reports. In order to strengthen its financial
management capacity, KNBS recruited five new staff members within the finance
department. This improved the speed of processing documents and the preparation of the
bank reconciliation statements. However, KNBS did not make progress over the various
financial processes that were being performed by the TSU’s finance manager, and therefore
there was little linkage between the financial management activities of KNBS and that for
the project.
76. The quality of the Bank’s supervision was moderately satisfactory. Although there
were a number of changes to Bank project team leadership during the project’s life, the
Bank’s management is rated moderately satisfactory. During the project’s initial phase
(April 2004-December 2008), the project had a project team leader (TTL) based in Nairobi;
he was a fully qualified statistician with sufficient knowledge and experience in bank
project implementation procedures and the functioning of the national statistics office.
After the retirement of the field-based TTL in December 2008, the TTLship was transferred
to headquarters during January-November 2009; this was a weak period for project
supervision and most of the day-to-day supervision issues took too long to be addressed.
However, from end 2009 to the project closure project supervision was of higher quality—
with two experienced co-TTLs, a consultant, and other short-term professionals working on
technical assistance provided under the project. During this period, the Bank’s processes
functioned well and No Objections were provided within days, and strong technical
assistance was provided across a number of important activities.
(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
77. This rating reflects a balance of: (a) less-than-satisfactory quality at entry of the
project; and (b) better-than-satisfactory supervision efforts for remedying the poor
implementation of the project.
78. The overall rating for the Bank’s Performance is Moderately Satisfactory. The
Bank worked closely with the government to develop a relevant legal and institutional
reform agenda that strategically addressed several core constraints that hindered production
and use of quality statistics in the country. The composition of the Bank team remained
adequate throughout the project implementation period, except for the short period in 2009
when the TTL was based in Washington DC. Field visits were carried out as scheduled
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and advised by the Bank and external experts were hired when necessary. The team
maintained a close collaboration with key stakeholders in the government, NGOs, civil
society, and business community and played a catalytic role in encouraging other
development partners to support statistical capacity development throughout the project
life. The Bank team’s quick and positive response to issues raised by its counterparts in the
government helped achieve the key project objectives.
5.2 Borrower Performance
(a) Government Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
79. Overall Government (Moderately Satisfactory): The government remained
committed to the project implementation. From the inception stage, the government acted
in support of the project. After preparing the Statistics Strategic Plan in 2003-3008, the
government requested the Bank to support its implementation and made a commitment to
increase its allocation towards statistics activities, especially supplementing training and
meeting operating costs and wages for the new KNBS staff. It approved all the proposed
reforms for the National Statistical System. It enacted the new law that enabled CBS to
become a semi-autonomous government agency with an independent Board. The
government also prepared second national statistical strategy for 2008-2012 after expiration
of the previous one. It is now in the process of preparing a third strategy for the next five
years. Both the Minister and the Permanent Secretary, with responsibility for statistics,
supported the project and endorsed the implemented activities. However, and despite the
Kenya Open Data Initiative, there has not been sufficient commitment and demand from
senior management for data dissemination neither at KNBS nor in partnering line
ministries. As a result, KNBS and MDAs have not increased the provision of online
statistics for public use.
(b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory
80. KNBS (successor to CBS) has played a key role in galvanizing the team effort of
the STATCAP project. Notable among its achievements has been the subsequent
strengthening of its governance structure and administration.
81. The implementing Agency’s performance is rated as Moderately
Unsatisfactory. While KNBS has played a consistent and pivotal role in advancing the
planned reforms, Bank supervision missions identified at an early stage the need for more
intensive efforts to achieve satisfactory progress under the project, in particular with regard
to establishing an effective system to monitor progress, the need for greater systematic
guidance and more timely support to MDAs and the need to enhance coordination and
clarity on the division of work between staff of KNBS and TSU. In addition, senior
management in KNBS was not prepared to authorize the broad and online publication of
the surveys the project financed, thereby slowing down progress towards the PDOs on data
dissemination.
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82. KNBS Board (Moderately Satisfactory). As stated above, a national steering
committee (NSC) acted as an oversight body of the project. NSC was succeeded by the
KNBS Board in July 2007. Both the NSC and the Board were composed of major
stakeholders (excluding donors), met on quarterly basis. They supervised the proper
functioning of the project, reviewed annual work and budget programs and quarterly and
annual progress reports. The Bank repeatedly raised issues of financial management,
procurement and data dissemination to the Board. However, the Board seems to have had
only modest success in influencing senior leadership in KNBS to improve the identified
issues, particularly with respect to procurement and data dissemination.
83. KNBS staff and TSU (Moderately Unsatisfactory). All KNBS directorates
participated in the execution of the activities assigned to them. KNBS provided support to
MDAs to help them improve data production and engaged in a productive dialogue with
those MDAs with other data users. The TSU prepared annual work and budget programs
and annual progress reports that Bank supervision found satisfactory. During the first year,
the project faced some difficulties in setting up adequate and performing financial
management arrangements partly due to the weaknesses of the financial management
expert that was hired. This was corrected when the TSU hired another FM expert. The
performance function of the TSU was, however, weak throughout the life of the project,
despite repeated efforts by the Bank supervision team to highlight the problem. TSU also
played a key coordination role among statistics producing agencies and between those
agencies and users. It also played a clearing house role for all major statistical operations
to be carried out by MDAs by ensuring the relevance; conformity and quality of design,
avoiding duplication and providing the final “go ahead” after consultation with KNBS
management, which is responsible for overall technical coordination. KNBS’ rating of
moderately unsatisfactory stems from the continued failure of the KNBS management to
address the evolving problems flagged by the Bank’s supervision team, principally those
related to procurement.
Other Statistics Producers (MDAs)
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
84. MDAs in charge of producing sector statistics were actively committed to and
involved in the project. The MDAs worked in close collaboration with KNBS,
strengthened their statistics departments and very substantially improved the production
and dissemination of their data and reports in terms of quality and timeliness. During the
project Mid-Term Review and ICR missions, they all expressed their satisfaction with the
project and their desire for further Bank support in order to consolidate what has been
achieved and take up new requests and challenges. However, there are still challenges with
respect to publicly disseminating the data the project helped to produce.
(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory
85. The overall performance of the Borrower is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory mainly
because of the Moderately Unsatisfactory ratings for the implementing agency and the TSU
25
unit, even though the project implementation record improved over time, especially after
the Mid-term Review mission. Nevertheless, significant issues in FM, procurement and
data dissemination were never successfully addressed and since all the above sub-ratings
are either Moderately Satisfactory or Moderately Unsatisfactory, this justifies the
Moderately Unsatisfactory rating.
6. Lessons Learned
Bank-Wide
86. Bank supervision and project restructuring. In retrospect, the Bank project team
should have taken a harder line and tried to overhaul the project at some point. This could
have included downgrading the project when product disbursement was below projections,
restructuring the project to have a narrower focus, and refusing to provide a no objection to
extending the contracts of non-performing TSU staff. The team faced disincentives to these
measures because they would have potentially further disrupted the project in the short term
and strained the Bank’s already difficult relationship with the KNBS Director-General.
Such an overhaul, however, might have led to a more successful project implementation
over the longer term.
87. Restructuring results. Project Development Objective Indicators should be closely
linked to Development Objectives. The PAD lists five headline PDOs, eight PDO
Indicators, and seven Intermediate Outcomes, without a clear mapping between the three
categories. The eight DO Indicators are heavily weighted to measures of timely data
production, which does not figure directly in any of the five PDOs. Likewise, the legal and
institutional reforms which were a central focus of the project are included among the five
headline DOs and reflected in the Intermediate Outcomes but do not appear at all in the
PDO Indicators. In retrospect, the eight PDO Indicators should have been overhauled at the
time of the first restructuring to more properly reflect the PDOs. In future statistics projects,
a close connection between indicators and objectives should be insured at the time of
project design.
88. Linking objectives and results. In statistics projects, closer attention should be
given to measuring relevant results. This applies to both information used to inform the
PDO Indicators and to information that would enable the project team to better understand
project performance. Three particular pieces of information would have been helpful to
have tracked in this project: 1) objective assessments of the reliability, accuracy, and
quality of official statistics, using common frameworks like ROSC, GDDS, and DQAF; 2)
information on data usage including systematic user surveys, traffic on the KNBS website,
email inquiries, library visits, media citations; and 3) measures of statistical agency
efficiency, such as cost per household or enterprise to conduct particular surveys. Provision
should be made at the time of project design to collect this information before initiation of
the project, as well as at regular intervals during the course of the project.
89. Data dissemination. Making data freely available to the public should be a
principal objective of future statistics project. The Kenya STATCAP was developed before
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the World Bank and the international development community had more broadly
recognized the tremendous value and importance of Open Data policies and related
approaches. Consequently, data access and dissemination was not given much emphasis in
the project. It is now understood the data production as an end in itself is of limited value if
only few users can access the data. As a broad principle, data that is collected with public
funds should be freely available to the public (mainly in anonymized form and with some
exceptions for data relating to national security, etc.)
90. Design of complex statistical operations. Particularly in difficult environments
with less enthusiastic counterparts, alternatives to the traditional STATCAP model could be
considered. The Kenya STATCAP had a very broad approach by which almost any
expense-related to statistics other than salaries could potentially be covered by the project.
This type of financing is in contrast to what most other donors do in statistics, which is to
finance only very narrow projects, e.g. an individual survey. A positive aspect of this
approach is that the project can remain flexible and change over time in response to
changing emphasis on the part of the borrower. Another positive aspect is that these
projects can fund smaller scale items such as ongoing training and equipment purchases,
which are often neglected in more narrowly tailored approaches. This approach probably
works best when the counterpart is highly motivated and the Bank team has strong
confidence that the counterparts will put the money to good use.
91. In a difficult environment, supervision is a challenge for a broad-based statistical
program. In the Kenya STACAP proposed expenses were outlined in annual work plans
which were developed by the TSU and submitted to the Bank supervision team for no
objection. Because these work plans were very extensive, covering a large number of small
expenses, it was impossible for the Bank project team to fully interrogate the merits of each
and every item. Furthermore, as almost any expense was potentially eligible, the
supervision team had no basis on which to reject elements of the work plan, except in cases
where the proposed work was clearly of little or no value.
92. Activity focused design. Following the current emphasis on a “results-based”
approach to development projects in general, a more narrowly tailored approach may be
desirable in difficult environments like that of Kenya. A set of activities could be identified
in the project design phase, and the project could focus on ensuring that those particular
activities took place. This less ambitious approach would have a greater chance of
achieving its objectives, and the Bank could be confident that its funds were well-spent.
This approach could still include support like capacity building for particular purposes, but
all expenses would be tied to outputs.
93. Focusing the lending instrument on results. One variation on this approach would
be to structure financing using the new Program for Results (P4R) instrument. The “results”
could be publicly available data outputs or improvements in FM or procurement. This
approach has a number of attractive elements. It would closely tie the money to what it is
intended to the objectives, presumably increasing the likelihood of success, and also
reducing the burden of supervision for the project team. A disadvantage of this approach is
that it would be less flexible and probably less suitable for funding broader purposes like
27
capacity building. Using a P4R approach it would also be necessary to build in a way to
measure and certify the quality of the outputs.
7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners
(a) Borrower/implementing agencies
Report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on the closure of the National
Statistical System Project (NSSP)/STATCAP.
7.1 Background
94. This report gives the status of the closure of the STATCAP/NSSP Project.
95. The Development of the National Statistical System (STATCAP) Project was
designed to run for five (5) years from April 2004 to 31st December 2010, when the
Government of Kenya and the World Bank signed the Letter of Agreement for the release
of Project Preparation Facility (PPF) of USD 1,324,160 for a two year period to start
project preparations and implementation of priority activities.
96. The Project’s main credit of US$ 20.5 million was however not approved by the
World Bank during the two year period and this necessitated the extension of the PPF
period for a further one year (2006/07) with additional allocation of USD 675,840, making
the total PPF allocation to be USD 2,000,000.
97. With the delayed approval of the World Bank’s credit, most of the activities
undertaken in the first two and half years were mainly financed by DFID, who co-
financed the project with a grant of GBP£6.5 million.
98. The World Bank’s main credit was approved and signed by the two parties on 23rd
May 2007 and became effective on 20th August 2007 upon preparation of an Institutional
Risk Management Framework. However, it was not until February 2008 when the first
disbursement of US$ 1.5 million was received in the project’s account. The delay was as a
result of disbursement process followed by the Government and the World Bank. In
addition, the post-election violence contributed to World Bank and other Development
Partners withholding development support.
99. The STATCAP Project was initially planned to end on 31st December 2010. After
assessing the objectives and expected outputs, it was realized that a number of activities
had not been executed as spelt in the initial agreement. The Government requested for an
initial 18 month extension to June 2012 and an additional three month extension to 30th
September 2012. Thereafter, the project allowed for a four month closure period to deal
with all outstanding payments and accounting issues. The new closure date was revised for
January 31st 2013.
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7.2 Project objectives
100. The objective of the Project was to establish a sustainable National Statistical
System to provide reliable, timely and accurate data in accordance with international
standards through:
a) Strengthening the capacity of the relevant statistical agencies through training and
adoption of new information and communication technology;
b) Carrying out legal and institutional reforms that promote statistical data
development;
c) Establishing linkages among statistical data producers;
d) Promoting statistical information sharing among data producers and users to
strengthen the quality of decision making; and
e) Developing a data access and dissemination strategy in conformity with relevant
legislation and international good practice
101. The project is divided into six components namely:
a) Organization Development
b) Human Resource Development
c) Development of Statistical Infrastructure
d) Data Development
e) Physical Infrastructure and Equipment
f) Implementation Arrangement
102. The first phase of the STATCAP Project was expected to have ended on 30th
December 2010, however, the Government sought and was granted an extension of 18
months up to 30th June 2012. The extension was necessitated by the delay in the approval
of the main credit was which was approved in May 2007 and became effective in August
2007. However the disbursements started in February 2008, a time when Kenya was facing
political instability. Subsequently, there was delay in implementation of key activities
including NASSEP V, the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2, Medium and
Small Enterprise Survey (MSE), Agricultural Census etc.
103. On June 30th 2012, at the official closure of the Project there were a number of key
ongoing activities like the NASSEP V and the implementation of the Enterprise Resource
Planning (ERP). The government further requested extension of three (3) months to enable
it complete the activities. This was granted on condition that no new activities would be
initiated. The final extension only allowed for the completion of ongoing activity and
making the relevant payments. This was granted to September 30th 2012. It is estimated
that by the closure date about 68% of the availed financial resources had been absorbed.
We can comfortable say that the STATCAP Project has substantially achieved the
objectives set out in the Results Matrix of the Project Appraisal Document.
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7.3 Achievements
7.3.1 Organization development
104. The impact of the first phase is clearly visible through the establishment of
Statistical Units in several Agencies including the Ministries of Trade and Industrialization,
the Judiciary, Police and Prison Departments, and strengthening the existing ones in the
STATCAP Agencies. This has resulted in improved data collection and dissemination from
the Agencies.
105. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics was the greatest beneficiary from the
project. With respect to institutional reform, the Bureau was transformed from a
Government department, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), to a semi-autonomous agency;
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The KNBS Library was upgraded with security
features. The LAN was upgraded, the Web site revamped to support increasing demand
from customers. The Bureau has also installed the Enterprise Resource Planning Software
to enhance efficiency and effective management of the Bureau.
106. Specifically the project supported and spearheaded the following activities under
this component:
i. The transformation of the Central Bureau of Statistics, a Government Department
to the now Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, a semi-autonomous body;
ii. The compilation and implementation of the first Institution Risk Management
Framework (IRMF) for the Bureau and the project;
iii. The Compilation of three reports ( De-linking Report, Human Resource Policies and
Procedures manual, Competency Framework and Pay Policy) which are being used
to guide the de-linking process of the Bureau from the Central Government;
iv. The re-development of the KNBS web-site as a key source for the dissemination of
produced by the KNBS and other NSS Agencies;
v. Enhancement of KNBS Local Area Network;
vi. The launch and support of the Agriculture, Environment and Nutrition Committee
to look into the data gaps in the sector;
vii. Supported to the quarterly Trade, Transport and the IT committee
viii. Formation and supported the Sector Working Groups (Real; Financial, Fiscal and
External; Social and Justice);
ix. The Risk Management Sensitization Workshops for KNBS Staff;
x. Procured a consultant to take the Bureau through ISO 9001:2008 Certification
Process and training of staff;
xi. The setting-up of Statistical units in police, judiciary, prisons and ministries of
Trade and Industry among other things.
7.3.2 Human resource development
107. The objective of this component was to support training and education to strengthen
professional and management skills of producers, suppliers and users of data. Based on a
30
Training Needs Report prepared in 2006, STATCAP supported capacity development,
both in KNBS and across the 14 participating MDAs in the National Statistical System.
Training courses included basic statistics, computing skills, including SPSS, MS Excel and
Access, project management, procurement, financial management, report writing, and
monitoring and evaluation. In total, STATCAP has supported capacity development for
4,380 people as tabulated below:
108. Courses conducted since the inception of the project:
Name of Course/Workshop No of people trained
a) Records Management 5
b) Data Collection, Analysis and Presentation 286
c) Works Procurement and Workshop on Consultants
Services 6
d) Data Base Management Oracle 9i 24
e) Data Analysis Using SPSS, 54
f) Basic Computer Applications 317
g) External Trade Statistics 29
h) Financial Management 3
i) Basic Statistics 311
j) Monitoring and Evaluation 22
k) Geographical Information System 34
l) Report Writing 163
m) Project Cycle Management 12
n) MS Access 13
o) Capacity Building workshop on Civil Registration 2,875
p) Gender Statistics 168
q) Study Tour 4
r) Developing Skills in Planning Monitoring and
Evaluating Information Systems 1
s) Measuring the Impact on Return on Investment in
Training 1
t) Enterprise Risk Management 40
u) Desk Top Publishing 6
v) Disaster Recovery Training 2
w) Web Designing 2
x) Senior Management Course 2
Total 4,380
7.3.3 Data infrastructure
109. With extensive support from STATCAP, KNBS was able to update the statistical
infrastructure that governs statistical data collection. The project supported the Census of
Establishments and hired a consultant to use the data to update the Master File (Register of
Establishments).
31
110. The STATCAP project also supported the establishment of the new master
sampling frame for household-based surveys (NASSEP V). The new sampling frame will
provide the basis for surveys until the next population and housing census in 2019. Finally,
the STATCAP project supported the development of a Statistical Compendium, and the
Data Access and Dissemination Policy, which is available online on KNBS' website.
7.3.4 Data development
111. The project contributed both to improving data comprehensiveness and reducing
data production time, and the project has achieved all four of its targets on improving the
national accounts statistics. With additional support from the IMF, there has also been good
progress in terms of improving quality, including upgrading the CPI index. In addition,
with support from the project, the statistical and physical infrastructure has been upgraded
and human capacity has been strengthened through training, which has contributed to
improved data production
112. A number of surveys, censuses and data base development were carried out
resulting to increased data volumes for use in decision making, monitoring and evaluation
of various development initiatives. The project funded eight (8) out of the fifteen (15)
surveys undertaken under the current KNB Strategic Plan (2008-2012), including a number
of important economic statistics surveys that significantly improved the compilation of the
national accounts.
113. Impressive progress has also been registered across the National Statistical System,
both with respect to data production from administrative records kept by various line
ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs), and coordination of data producers across
sectors. In MDAs, in general, there has been a marked increase in the quantity and quality
of data produced, and support from the project has helped to reduce the data production
time in some MDAs. For example Kenya Revenue Authority is now releasing trade data
with a lag period of 1.5 months instead of the 6 months before the project started
supporting the NSS. The production time of the full range of national accounts has been
reduced from 24 to 9 months, the production time for the balance of payment statistics has
been reduced from 12 to 9 months, while government financial statistics and banking
statistics are now more comprehensive and of improved quality compared to the project
baselines.
114. Specifically, the following surveys and activities were supported by the project:
Surveys and Censuses
i. Rapid Health Facility Assessment (R-HFA) Survey
ii. Survey of Apartments, Villas and Cottages
iii. Census of Industrial Production
iv. Foreign Direct Investments Survey
v. Kenya Survey of Persons with Disabilities
vi. Manpower Survey
32
vii. Informal Cross Border Survey
viii. Integrated Services Survey;
ix. Independent Monitoring of the Population and Housing Census.
x. Publicity and Advocacy Population and Housing Census
xi. Disability Survey
Data Collection Instruments
i. Review and Harmonization of Education Data collection Instruments
ii. Review and harmonization of industrial statistics instruments
iii. Review and Harmonize Labour Statistics instruments
iv. Review of Probation Data collection Instruments
v. Review and Revision of Kenya’s National Accounts
vi. Review of Data Collection instruments by National Registration Bureau
Other Activities
i. Data Access and Dissemination Policy
ii. Gender Data sheet compilation
iii. Re-basing of CPI
iv. Creation of a Database for Persons with Disabilities (PWD)
v. Development of Integrated Database for the Economic Department, Central
Bank of Kenya
vi. Agricultural Statistics Situation Analysis
vii. Implementation of Integrated Software for management of transaction records
viii. Updating of the National Accounts, using the consumption module of Kenya
Integrated Household and Budget Survey, and the ISIC 4.0
ix. Adoption of the 2001 Governance Finance Statistics standards
7.3.5 Physical Infrastructure and Equipment
115. Physical infrastructure is an important determinant of capacity to produce statistics
for any statistical organization. This component of the project was therefore very important.
In general the project provided extensive support to build physical infrastructure in KNBS
and across the national statistics system although procurement challenges delayed and
sometimes prevented upgrade and transition to improved data production regimes.
116. Several equipment was purchased by the project to support the STATCAP Agencies
activities of data collation. The issuance of computers and other equipment enabled the
Agencies to enhance their data collection skills and also production of these statistics to
regularly appear in the Annual Economic Survey. KRA is a classic example where the
purchase of a Server and some four computers reduced the lag time of generating reports
from 6 months to six weeks.
33
117. The project has bought the following items and distributed to the Agencies:
No Item Description Quantity
a. Computers 460
b. TFT Monitors 40
c. Printers 300
d. Workstations and Chairs 390
e. Photocopier 10
f. Server 9
g. Lap Top Computers 43
h. Lap Top Computer (For KIHBS) 70
i. Fax Machine 1
j. LCD Projector 7
k. Motor Vehicles 17
l. Shelves for the Library 50
m. Reading Desks for the Library 60
n. Reading Chairs for the Library 100
7.4 Implementation arrangement
118. The following implementation arrangement assisted in the execution of the project:
7.4.1 The Board of directors
119. This is the national coordinating body that defines the national statistical strategy,
policies, priorities and broad implementation arrangements. It oversees national program
elaboration and implementation, and bears the responsibility for results and their quality.
7.4.2 Sector working groups
120. Four sectoral tasks teams were established in the areas of Real, Fiscal, Financial,
and External, social and Justice Statistics sectors. The teams handled specific sector issues
relating to the NSS and the other statistical units in sector ministries.
7.4.3 Staffing of the transitional support unit (TSU)
121. The Transitional Support Unit (TSU) formerly the Project Management Unit (PMU)
was formed in June 2004 with recommendations from the Project Appraisal Document
(PAD) prepared and agreed upon by the Government and the World Bank. The PMU/TSU
structure was proposed to have six managers and three support staff. The managers were
Project Manager, Technical Manager, Information Technology Manager, Human Resource
Manager, Finance Manager and Logistics and Administration Manager. Support staffs
were Secretary, a Driver and an Office assistant.
34
122. Specifically, TSU coordinated project activities of all benefiting institutions
including statistical producing units/departments in other ministries, ensure compliance
with procurement, disbursement, financial management policies and procedures and
manage reporting and auditing activities. The TSU has successfully implemented the
project.
7.5 Challenges
7.5.1 Absorption capacity of the project funds:
123. Although the Development of the National Statistical System (STATCAP) Project
was designed to run for five (5) years from April 2004, the World Bank’s main credit was
approved and signed by the two parties on 23rd May 2007 and became effective on 20th
August 2007 upon preparation of an Institutional Risk Management Framework. However,
it was not until February 2008 when the first disbursement of US$ 1.5 million was received
in the project’s account. The delay was as a result of disbursement process followed by the
Government and the World Bank.
124. As a result while the plans for implementing the work plan were available, there
were other competing activities from the participating Agencies that did not enable the
implementation of the Plans.
7.5.2 Liquidity constraints
125. As a result of lengthy processes in application and receipt of reimbursements, a
number of activities were affected hence slowing down the implementation rate. Sometimes
the delay would be as long as three months.
7.5.3 Staff turnover
126. The Transition Support Unit was largely affected by staff turnover of Finance
Managers. In the life of the Project there were three Finance Managers. The turnover
brought with it complications especially in financial reporting and handling of Audit issues.
7.6 Procurement issues
127. At times the procurement processes took longer than expected primarily as the
concurrence was sought with the World Bank Counterpart and at other times overhaul of
some of the documentations. The other delay was partly attributable to the numerous issues
raised by the Tender Committee that needed addressing before implementation was done.
7.6.1Project staff
128. The project was operating as a unit within the Bureau and its function was somehow
independent. This created a gap when all TSU staff left before closure of the project,
35
leaving the committee constituted to close the project without someone without project
memory.
7.6.2 Outstanding bills
129. Kenya National Bureau of statistics (KNBS) is currently holding outstanding Bills
of Ksh 60 Million being services contracted during the stipulated period but which remain
unpaid.
7.7 Conclusion
130. The project was very useful to National Statistical System and there is need to carry
on with these activities to ensure quality, timely and reliable statistics are produced for the
country.
(b) Cofinanciers
UK Department for International Development (DFID)
131. The UK provided a £6.5 million grant to the statistical capacity building project
(STATCAP). Of the total grant, £3.9 million was disbursed between 2004 and 2007,
providing flexible funding to the STATCAP priority activities prior to the World Bank
credit becoming effective. Some examples of the activities supported in the early phases of
the STATCAP include upgrading computers, printers and photocopying equipment for
KNBS’s library, supporting the production of the Kenya Integrated Household Budget
Survey (KIHBS), the first survey in Kenya on people with disabilities, and poverty research
using the KIHBS data. Since 2007, DFID’s funding has been used to provide more
strategic financing of the STATCAP, including supporting the communications and
publicity of the 2009 Census and sponsoring an in-country statistician hosted by the World
Bank to work on STATCAP with KNBS.
132. DFID, with the World Bank, has met regularly with officials in KNBS and the
MDAs supported by the STATCAP to discuss progress of the project, and attended formal
mission reviews where KNBS’s board and the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of
Planning have participated. It has carried out its own independent annual reviews of the
STATCAP against a monitoring framework including indicators developed for the project.
133. In September 2012, DFID conducted a project completion review of the STATCAP
having disbursed the full grant [Ref]. The review rated the STATCAP as moderately not
meeting expectations, and concluded that the STATCAP had made significant progress in
institutional reform, noting the rebranding of KNBS from the Central Bureau of Statistics
and the transfer of staff to KNBS terms and conditions, but progress with the KNBS
website as a portal for accessing data was mixed, as was progress with the production of
key statistical surveys and activities. Regarding data access, the review added that “the
website was meant to provide a platform to access many national statistics on-line, in
useable and re-useable formats. While PDF versions of documents can be downloaded from
36
KNBS, access to useable micro-data remains limited and the KNBS’s dissemination
framework is largely viewed as functioning poorly by users”.
134. On statistical survey production, the review noted that the lateness of completing
NASSEP V and the knock-on effects of this on other key surveys, such as the DHS and
KAIS, which had affected the performance of the project in the latter stages. This had been
attributed to weak procurement and financial systems, uncertainty around the date of
elections which affected planning, and a weakening counterpart relationship.
135. Despite the project moderately not meeting expectations, DFID’s review judged it
to have represented value for money (VfM) against the criteria of economy, efficiency and
effectiveness. This judgment was based on competitive unit costs for training, and
technical assistance, the efficiency with which these activities had benefited staff in
statistical analysis and reporting, and the effectiveness with which key statistical products,
such as the CPI and the Census data were being used in Government policy making.
136. In concluding, DFID highlighted that funding was the main obstacle to modernizing
the national statistical system, and improving economic statistics. DFID cautioned that the
gains made by the project in the last 8 years could be reversed without adequate and
sustainable financing from the Government of Kenya, particularly to support national
statistics with devolved governments as envisaged by Kenya’s Constitution.
(c) Other partners and stakeholders
Not Applicable.
37
Annex 1: Project Costs and Financing
(a) Project Cost by Component (in US$ Million equivalent)
Components Appraisal Estimate
(US$ million)
Actual/Latest
Estimate
(US$ million)
Percentage of
Appraisal
Total Baseline Cost 0.00 0.00
Physical Contingencies
0.00
0.00
0.00
Price Contingencies
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Project Costs 0.00 0.00
Front-end fee PPF 0.00 0.00 .00
Front-end fee IBRD 0.00 0.00 .00
Total Financing Required 0.00 0.00
(b) Financing
Source of Funds Type of
Cofinancing
Appraisal
Estimate
(US$ million)
Actual/Latest
Estimate
(USD million)
Percentage of
Appraisal
Borrower 3
International Development Association
(IDA) 20.50
38
Annex 2: Outputs by Component
Component/Outputs Realized
Component A: Organizational Development and Governance (US$0.45 million)
137. Institutional reform: the process of transforming CBS into KNBS has been
completed. Following the Statistical Act of 2006, KNBS is now a semi-autonomous
agency with a fully functional Board of Directors, a Director General, and six senior
Directors.
138. ISO Certification: KNBS is currently undergoing an ISO certification, which is
expected to be completed in 2013.
139. New functions in KNBS: Unlike CBS, which was a department in MPND, KNBS
has now established its own internal financial management, procurement, and audit
functions, although procurement challenges persist (in obtaining competitive goods and
services).
140. Coordination of the NSS. Three SWGs have been established for coordination
among various sectors (real, social, financial, and governance).
Component B: Human Resource Development (US$3.3 million)
141. Links between training and data production. The training courses imparted have
strengthened staff skills; and the benefits are seen in the increased volume of and the
quality of statistics produced, faster production times, and better analysis of data.
Component C: Development of Statistical Infrastructure (US$1.5 million)
142. Building of statistical infrastructure. KNBS has made good progress in updating
the infrastructure that governs national accounts. This process, to be based on SNA 2008,
will be completed in 2013—making Kenya to be among the first in Africa to adopt this
latest version of the computational approach. In addition, data collection for the producer
price index (PPI) is currently underway and the first PPI is expected to be launched early in
2013. Lastly, project has supported the establishment of the new master sampling frame
for household-based surveys, NASSEP V. The new sampling frame will provide the basis
for surveys until the next population and housing census in 2019.
143. Technical assistance. The project supported the development of a Statistical
Compendium, and the Data Access and Dissemination Policy, which is available on
KNBS's website.
39
Component D: Data Development (US$6.0 million)
144. Production of economic statistics. In general, there has been impressive progress in
improving economic statistics in Kenya, the improvement of compilation of the national
accounts aggregates and CPI series, including undertaking the following surveys:
Developing the integrated database for the economic department in the Central
Bank of Kenya (2007)
Agricultural statistics situation analysis
Survey of apartments, villas and cottages (2010)
Census of Industrial Production (2010)
Foreign direct investment survey (2010)
Manpower survey (2011)
Informal cross-border survey (2011)
Integrated services survey (2011-12)
145. Production of social statistics. The project also supported the development of social
statistics, including the production of the following surveys:
The disability survey (2008)
Independent monitoring of the population and housing census (2009)
Publicity and advocacy population and housing survey (2009)
146. Administrative statistics. There has also been robust progress in the compilation of
statistics from administrative records across the supported 15 line ministries. Some sectors
now produce data for the first time and feedback from a number of sectors indicate that the
growing production of data has been accompanied by increases in both use and additional
demand. For example, since 2011 the security and justice sector now have a chapter on
‘Governance’ statistics in the Economic Survey.
147. Agricultural statistics. One area of the national accounts that require future attention
is agricultural statistics. In Kenya, agriculture accounts for approximately 25 percent of
GDP Kenya, and a planned agricultural census could not be funded under STATCAP due
to the lack of additional funding from other counterparts. However, KNBS is in the
process of undertaking an agricultural study to improve the basis for agricultural statistics.
The planned symposium for agricultural statistics was not held, however, there is still need
to determine and agree on the most appropriate way forward for agricultural statistics in
Kenya, particularly given funding constraints and newly developed methods for data
collection, including 'sample censuses' and combining agricultural data collection with
other household surveys. Recently completed, study tours to Uganda and Tanzania, are
expected to provide valuable input and recommendations into the discussion.
148. KIHBS II. At the beginning of the STATCAP project, it was agreed to have KIHBS
carried out every five to six years to provide critical data on poverty and costs of living for
use by policy makers in private and public sectors. However, because of delays in
producing the NASSEP V sampling frames me and uncertainty about the election date, the
40
next KIHBS is scheduled to take place soon after the 2013 elections. There has been some
progress in developing the survey plan, however, further preparations for this important
survey needs to commence as soon as possible, including establishing a joint
Government/donor survey committee to assist in the preparation arrangements as well as
mobilization of financial resources.
149. User access to data. Despite impressive progress in survey production, access to
data has only improved marginally since the project started. The pre-project pattern of
hard-copy launch has been maintained with the only exceptions of the monthly consumer
price index and the quarterly GDP online releases. Key statistical products, such as the
Census reports, the Economic Survey, and Statistical Abstract are not available online. The
agreed Quarterly Statistical Digest has not yet been re-launched. Of the other surveys
produced, none are available online for easy user access and download. Concerns about
financial losses from a reduction in the sale of printed copies seem unfounded, as the
current sale of printed reports is very modest. Paradoxically, a number of produced
surveys are readily available on the websites of many of KNBS' partners, where the
anonymized micro data from the previous two censuses can be downloaded, the DHS
website, where the Kenya DHS surveys that can be downloaded, and the Bank, where a
number of KNBS datasets can be downloaded. Availing this data on KNBS' own website
would therefore be an easy win for KNBS and provide good access for Kenyan users who
may not be aware of the other resources. It would also help to transform KNBS' current
imagine from largely being seen as 'holding on to data' to an open and modern data
producer that lives up to its own logo of keeping Kenyans informed.
150. Data access. However, there has been recent progress in access to information, both
with the launch of the Kenya Open Data Initiative, and the revival of KenInfo. The Kenya
Open Data Initiative, which has put Kenya on the forefront of the worldwide open data
initiative, was launched in July 2011 with support from KNBS, including the provision of
key datasets, such as the 2009 Census data tables. The Open Data Initiative has also
changed the nature of Government data being foremost a public good. Although, in recent
months there has been a scarcity in the upload of new datasets, despite KNBS staff
receiving training in data upload funded by the STATCAP project. KenInfo has registered
some progress, with the recent upload of the 2010 MTP indicators. The 2011 indicators
have been available since approximately October 2011 and these indicators could easily
have been uploaded in a very short period of time.
151. Data sharing. There are weak links between KNBS and line ministries in terms of
regularly availing statistics needed to monitor and evaluate targets and other indicators
outlined in the Government programs and projects, including the MTP indicators. This is
not only because of the process of coordination across the national statistical system
commenced recently, but also a reflection of the low capacity for managing for
development results (MfDR) across GOK.
Component E: Physical Infrastructure and Equipment (US$5.1 million)
152. Building physical infrastructure. Physical infrastructure is an important determinant
of capacity to produce statistics for any statistical organization. This component of the
41
project was therefore important. The project provided extensive support to build physical
infrastructure in KNBS and across the national statistics system although serious and
consistent procurement challenges delayed and sometimes prevented upgrade and transition
to improved data production regimes. The inability to procure CAPI devices for the new
NASSEP V master sample frame is an example. One particular example of the
significance of physical infrastructure in data production stands out. The server provided to
improve the external trade statistics produced by KRA helped to reduce production time
from approximately six weeks to two weeks.
Component F: Project Management (US$3.93 million)
153. Project management has in general showed mixed performance. The initial design
for the project intended the TSU to support capacity development in KNBS, particularly in
the areas of financial management, procurement, and M&E, and eventually a
mainstreaming of the TSU into KNBS. Because of the many project management
challenges in the TSU, this transition has not taken place. Furthermore, whereas there has
been good progress on ensuring results focus in the work plans and general coordination of
sector working groups, the procurement and financial management issues that were
identified early in the project’s life have persisted and never been fully resolved. KNBS
will need to establish how some of the functions currently undertaken by the TSU unit will
be taken over by KNBS once the project ends.
154. Financial management. Following the comprehensive in-depth FM review that was
carried out from October 2011 to March 2012, a concise desk review of the STATCAP
project was carried out on June4, 2012.
155. Cashbook and IFR discrepancy. The issues that were identified as part of the recent
in-depth review included poor record keeping and outstanding Kenya National Audit
Office qualifications. The review also identified a discrepancy of KSH168m
(approximately US$2 million) between the project cashbooks and the project Interim
Financial Reports (IFR) submitted to the Bank. Although the project is SOE (statement of
expense) based, the issue remains to be resolved.
156. Audit reports and qualifications. The FM review found that there are no
outstanding audit reports as the audit report for 30 June 2011 was submitted to the Bank
within 6 months after financial year-end as stipulated in the Financing Agreement.
However, the auditor issued a qualified opinion on the Financial Statements on a number of
grounds. In the audit report acknowledgement letter, sent to the project by the TTL, the
project had been asked to address the audit qualification issues and submit a clearance
letter from KENAO by end of February 2012. The clearance letter is outstanding to date.
The STATCAP project accountant indicated during the mission that they addressed the
issues and were to invite KENAO to review and issue a clearance certificate.
42
Annex 3: Economic and Financial Analysis
157. The economic benefits of the project are expected to derive from three main
sources. First, improvements in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies to
result in broader coverage and higher-quality data. Second, better data to enhance the
potential for evidence-based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. Third,
the project to help address the significant costs of poor decisions made on the basis of
missing or inaccurate data.
158. The project is not amenable to a financial analysis because national statistical
offices have very limited opportunities to recover costs, apart from selling compendiums of
data. National statistics are generally considered public goods and are generally financed
from Government revenue. Therefore, only marginal financial returns are expected from
this project. However, indirectly, the project is expected to promote improved allocation of
resources, enhanced social monitoring of the impact of Government spending and
reduction in revenue leakages by providing more accurate information on economic
activity to the public at large, and the tax authorities in particular.
43
Annex 4: Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes
(a) Task Team members
Names Title Unit Responsibility/
Specialty
Lending
Lucas Ojiambo Consultant AFTP2 Technical guidance
Gabriel Demombynes Senior Economist EASPV TTL
Philip Brynnum Jespersen In-Country Statistician DECDG Co-TTL
Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist AFTP2 Technical guidance
Joel Monyori Procurement Specialist AFTPE Procurement support
Josephine Ngigi Financial Management Specialist AFTME Financial management
oversight and support
Anne Khatimba Team Assistant AFTP2 Team support
Henry Amuguni Senior Financial Management Specialist AFTME Financial management
support
Supervision/ICR
(b) Staff Time and Cost
Stage of Project Cycle
Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only)
No. of staff weeks USD Thousands (including
travel and consultant costs)
Lending
Total: 290 725,193.00
Supervision/ICR
Total: 5 20,725.00
44
Annex 5: Bank STATCAP Program Eligibility Criteria
The preparation of a national statistical strategic plan. This would typically be
demonstrated by the existence of an approved statistical master plan, prepared and
owned by the country with broad stakeholder involvement, and including some
financing from the national budget. The plan should include the normal cycle of
statistical operations, such as a household-based and enterprise-based survey
programs, and population and other censuses.
National commitment and leadership to have a strengthened statistical system
and use its outcomes to better design and manage policies, programs and resource
allocation.
Willingness to comply with good statistical practice. Countries will be eligible if
they subscribe to the IMF General Data Dissemination System, or are committed to
adopting the Special Data Dissemination Standard.
Participation in global development and monitoring activities. Countries need to
demonstrate the willingness to use of statistical data in developing and monitoring
Poverty Reduction Strategies or the attainment of the Millennium Development
Goals, as an indicator of government commitment to use statistical information for
making policy decisions and monitoring.
Use of sustainable implementation arrangements. An eligible country will need
to put in place acceptable management, financial, procurement and regulatory
arrangements for Project implementation and implementation of the strategic plan.
45
Annex 6: Detailed Overview of Support to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies
Ministry,
Department,
Agency
Support received from
STATCAP Results of STATCAP support
Agreed indicators for the
Quarterly Statistical Digest
Ministry of
Health
Printing reports, including
Annual Health Status
Reports (2005-07), Sector
(backlog)
Rapid assessment of Health
facilities
Officers trained in databases
and HMIS
All progress backlogged reports
cleared (except 2010)
Baseline for data quality established
1. Immunization of children (0-
1) both number and share.
Ministry of
Gender and
Social
Development
Computer equipment
Server provided
Training – statistics, sex
disaggregated data,
Computer Application to
Data Management
Gender disaggregated data is now
collected routinely
1. No and percent of women in
the public sector
2. No and percent of women in
senior positions
3. No and percent of women in
political positions
Ministry of
Agriculture
Consultancy on data needs
Training on Data
Management, SPSS, Oracle,
Project Management and
Research Methodologies
Computers, Laptops,
printers, Server and
Workstations
Increased data access via the
website that was developed
www2.kilimo.go.ke
Improved data quality via the data
validation methods adopted
Production figures are now
available on a monthly basis
1. Data for major crops
2. Food prices (production)
Kenya Prisons
Service
Computers, UPS, printers,
workstations
Training – in GIS, SPSS,
MS Office, record
management system, Basic
Computer Skills
Reduction in data/report production
time (from days to days?)
Monthly/daily data reports on
prisoners
Better information for allocations of
prisoners per prison
Better information for rehabilitation
programmes
1. Number of new convictions
2. No of incarcerated prisoners
(age, sex, sentence, crime
category)
Ministry of
Labour
Computers
Training
Technical and financial
support to Manpower
survey
Manpower survey in the field
Increased labour market data,
including post-secondary enrolment
and out-turn (annual)
1. Enrolment of students by Sex
in Training Institutions
2. Number of Training
Institution by type and
Region
Registrar’s
Office
Judiciary
Computer equipment
Training - SPSS
Statistics department established
Existing manuals digitized
Electronic case system established
1. Number of cases received
2. Number of cases
processed/filed by category
and sex of offender
3. Number of cases pending No
of court cases (settled,
pending
Central Bank
of Kenya
System set up as a one stop
shop for all statistics in the
bank
Data available to the public more
quickly (posting monthly , formerly
twice a year) due to electronic
system (production time is the
same)
Data archive set up
Increased data access via database
with electronic version of old
reports
Report backlog cleared
1. Money Supply
2. Interest rates
3. Gross International Reserves
4. Credit to the Private Sector
5. 91 Day Auctions and Interest
rates;
6. Exchange rates
46
Ministry,
Department,
Agency
Support received from
STATCAP Results of STATCAP support
Agreed indicators for the
Quarterly Statistical Digest
Kenya Police
Computers, printers
Training – Basic Statistics,
Computer Application to
data management, Report
Writing, GIS
Photocopiers
Software
Database set up
Increased number of indicators
available
Quality improved due to electronic
system
Reduction in production time from
20 to 15 days
1. Nature of crime by category
Probation and
After Services
Computer hardware
Workstations – furniture
Training – ICT, Basic
Statistics, Report Writing
Backlog of probation reports cleared
Production time of probation reports
reduced from 6 months to 1 month
Quality of data has improved after
the implementation of the data
management system (from 12% to
80% of required information)
1. Probation report summary
indicators, including sex,
sentence, region
Kenya Revenue
Authority
Printing of Annual
Trade Reports
Computers, Server
Training – trade
statistics, MS Access
Production time for trade statistics
reduced from 8 weeks to 1.5 weeks
Backlog cleared for (2004-2008?)
Informal Cross border survey team
about to go to the field
1. Direct imports
2. Trade balance table
3. Imports for home Use
National
Registration
Bureau
Computers, Printers,
laptops, Server,
Photocopying
Machine,
Workstations.
Training in SPSS, MS
Access, Computer
Application to Data
Management, Project
management, Report
Writing and
Monitoring and
Evaluation
Timely production and delivery of
data; From 30% to about 80%.
Change in attitude in appreciation of
data in NRB.
Working on the quality of the data.
Number of New registrations
by Sex and County
Number of replacements by
sex and County;
Number of changes by reason
and sex.
Civil
Registration
Bureau
Computers and UPS
Training on SPSS,
Project M&E, Senior
management course
Community
mobilisation in 7
districts (large
population, low
registration rates)
Reduction in data preparation time,
quality is up
Improving services to users of
statistics, including MoH, CDC,
KIPPRA and KNBS,
Report preparation time reduced
Analysis of data improved, by sex,
by place of birth/death
1. Birth/death by province
2. Birth/death by place of
occurrence
3. Birth by age of mother and
marital status
Agreed to present findings
both in tables and in
graphs/figures where helpful
Ministry of
Education
Training in report
writing, SPSS,
Strategic management
Review of data
collection instruments
Development of data
collection and
statistical manuals
Data received from the districts have
increase
More comprehensive reports from
decentralised levels
Ongoing work to review data
collection systems
Three sets of data received at HQ
per year
1. Quarterly enrolment by
County
2. Quarterly enrolment by sex
3. No of teachers
4. No of classrooms
47
Annex 7: List of Supporting Documents
A. Project Documents - PAD for STATCAP (February 7, 2007). Report No: 42453-KE
- Credit Agreement for STATCAP
- ISRs (2008-2012) and AMs (various years, 2008-12)
B. Bank Guidelines and Procedures - OPCS ICR Guidelines, August 2006. Updated (October 2011)
C. LIST OF PERSONS INTERVIEWED (Field Mission to Nairobi, December 2-13,
2012)
Government of Kenya:
Zachary MwangiChege, Acting Director, KNBS
Monyoncho Maina, Technical Manager, KNBS
James Gatungu, Director, Production and Statistics Directorate, KNBS
Simon Gaitho, KNBS
Isaac K. Ndegwa, KNBS
Collins Omondi, KNBS
James K. Maru, MOL
Alex Mwaniki, MOA
Lissel I. Mogaka, MGC&SD
TruphosaOtwala, MGC&SD
Gladys Echesa, MOH
Wambua Willy, CRD
Isaac Kiprop, KRA
Michael Gitau, KNBS
David M. Mboni, Project Manager, STATCAP (2007-12)
Angeline C.C. Limo, CBK
Stanley Mwangi, Probation
Immaculate K. Ndetei, NRB
Joseph Kaburu, Prisons
Astiba Martin, Judiciary
Stephen Okere, Kenya Police
External Development Partners
Michael Morris, Regional Statistics Advisor, Kenya and Somalia, DFID
World Bank
Gabriel Demombynes, Senior Economist and co-TTL
Philip B. Jespersen, In-Country Statistician, DECDG
48
