Do Not Use This Material Without Permission from Author 1 Visualizing US Urbanization and Transportation Trends Ken Laberteaux Lab S Toyota Research Institute-North

Do Not Use This Material Without Permission from Author1

Visualizing US Urbanization and Transportation Trends

Ken LaberteauxLab S

Toyota Research Institute-North America (TRI-NA)November 2010


Special thanks to our partners at theMIT Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning

http://www.theprex.net/

Alan Berger Case Brown


Scope

• National Statistics

• Metro Case Study: Denver

Intro Economics Housing Employment Denver Transportation



Why Denver?

•Typical Growth Metro•Not Geographically Constrained•and 5 other criteria (see backup slides)


Outline

• Economy and Transportation

• Decentralization of Housing

• Decentralization of Employment

• Denver Transportation

Main Result: Car-focus culture likely to continue/grow in US



Outline







VMT vs. EconomyFifty-year US Travel and Economic Trends

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Per

cen

t (%

) C

han

ge

sin

ce 1

960 US GDP (year 2000 $)

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Population

Gas $/gal (CPI adj.)

Fifty years of US Travel and Economic Trends. Note how closely the VMT and GDP are correlated.

(sources: GDP: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, chained 2000 dollars; VMT: “Highway Statistics 2007” Table VMT-421, FHWA; Population: US Census; Gas Price: “Short Term Energy Outlook-October 2009” US Energy Information Administration, annual prices scaled by US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2008)



Trips vs. Salary

As Americans household income increases, they take longer trips and more trips.



Vehicles Owned vs. Salary

Income is a strong predictor of vehicle ownership.


Commuting in America III, 2006


Commute Mode vs. Salary

Americans with higher income are more likely to drive alone on their commute




Analysis

• Americans access more convenience with the frequent use of a car.

• As Americans increase their personal financial means, they buy more cars and drive them more.



Outline







Moving South and West

Case Brown and Alan Berger

Mean Center of US Population


Phelps County, MO


Moving South and West

Alan Pisarski, Commission Briefing Paper 4A-05

More new residents in Florida than Northeast and Midwest combined.

(Same is True for Texas and California)



Americans mostly live in Suburbs

Clearly, the "suburban" culture dominates in the US

Rural Suburban UrbanRural Suburban Urban

Histogram-US Population Density (2000)




Boomtowns

Fastest Growth: “BoomTowns”•10-55 mi from urban center•Connected by highway (usually no tolls)

Confidential (unpublished), prepared by C. Brown and A. Berger for Toyota-TRINA, 2009.

US areas with highest population and income growth (2000-08) are identified by BusinessWeek as Boomtowns, (shown in orange). They are always outside, but near a major city (shown in gray), usually connected by a major highway.



Americans are living less densely

The amount of developed land per person continued to rise from 1982-2002.

Prepared by Case Brown and Alan Berger



10 mi

New People

3500

8000

19000

Denver Population Density Change 2010-2035

•Growth is strong in periphery•New Housing convenient access to highway


Alan Berger and Case Brown


Denver Population is Decentralizing (by %)

Percent Denver Population vs. City Center Distance

19 17

40 36

29 34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 2000

Per

cen

t 10-20 mi

5-10 mi

0-5 mi

larger

smaller

smaller



Analysis

• Trend is decentralized, less-dense housing.

• Fastest growing housing areas are outside of cities (although strongly connected to the economies of the anchor cities).



Outline







98 Largest US Metros1 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA3 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI MSA4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA5 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA6 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA8 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA

10 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA11 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA12 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ MSA13 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA15 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA16 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA17 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA18 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA19 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA20 Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA21 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO MSA22 Pittsburgh, PA MSA23 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA24 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA25 Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, CA MSA26 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA27 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA28 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA29 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA30 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA31 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA32 Columbus, OH MSA33 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC MSA34 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA35 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX MSA36 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA37 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA MSA38 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN MSA39 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA40 Jacksonville, FL MSA41 Memphis, TN-MS-AR MSA42 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA43 Richmond, VA MSA44 Oklahoma City, OK MSA45 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA46 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA MSA47 Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA48 Salt Lake City, UT MSA49 Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA

50 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY MSA51 Rochester, NY MSA52 Tucson, AZ MSA53 Tulsa, OK MSA54 Fresno, CA MSA55 Honolulu, HI MSA56 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT MSA57 Albuquerque, NM MSA58 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY MSA59 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA MSA60 New Haven-Milford, CT MSA61 Dayton, OH MSA62 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ MSA63 Bakersfield-Delano, CA MSA64 Worcester, MA MSA65 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA66 Baton Rouge, LA MSA67 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI MSA68 El Paso, TX MSA69 Columbia, SC MSA70 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA71 Greensboro-High Point, NC MSA72 Akron, OH MSA73 Knoxville, TN MSA74 Springfield, MA MSA75 North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL MSA76 Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR MSA77 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA78 Stockton, CA MSA79 Toledo, OH MSA80 Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC MSA81 Syracuse, NY MSA82 Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC MSA83 Colorado Springs, CO MSA84 Wichita, KS MSA85 Boise City-Nampa, ID MSA86 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL MSA87 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL MSA88 Madison, WI MSA89 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA90 Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA MSA91 Provo-Orem, UT MSA92 Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA93 Ogden-Clearfield, UT MSA94 Jackson, MS MSA95 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA96 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA MSA97 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL MSA98 Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA

Consider 98 largest US Metros• 3/4 of US GDP• 2/3 of US Jobs

Define three (3) regions around Central Business District of Top 98 Metro Areas Brookings Inst.



Job Concentration Trend

Over 40% of the jobs in US metro regions are located more than 10 miles from the Central Business District (CBD).

This region continues to see growth in its share of jobs within the metro region.


3%


Job Decentralized in South and West

Job decentralization is strongest in areas of greatest population growth



Commute Distances Increasing

One Way Commute distance from 1983-2005. In that time, the distance nearly doubled, from 8.5 miles to 16 miles.

National Highway Travel Survey 2001, US Bureau of TransportationStatistics Omnibus Household Survey 2003, ABC News/Time

magazine/Washington Post poll 2005

One-way Commute Distance

0

5

10

15

20

1981 1991 2001Pe

rso

n T

rip

Le

ng

th (

mile

s)



Commuting from suburb to suburb

Commuters are increasingly living in one suburb and driving to another suburb







Denver 2010-2035 Employment

IncreaseStrongly Tied to Highway

(and Airport)

10 mi

New Jobs

500

1000

10000




Car dominates Denver Commute

2007 Denver City Commuter Method

Mass transit

Drive Alone

Carpool



Analysis

• All indications point to decentralization of employment in US Metro regions.

• Suburb-to-suburb commute dominates—Metro Hub-and-Spoke transportation is not an ideal match.



Outline







Denver Travel Demand is Increasing

Vehicle per household

Daily Trips per Person

Daily VMT

-More People-Owning More Cars-Taking More Trips

2000-2007 Population grew by 285k (13%)



Driving Range-Denver Metro

45% > 30mi/day

a. Range Anxiety is real

b. Pure BEV risk being a niche customer choice

2000, DRCOG



Suburb to Suburb Travel Dominates

a. Travel between suburbs (65%) dominates to/from city (35%)

b. Geographically diverse. Requires geographically flexible transportation

c. Dispels notion of “bedroom community”

10 mi.

2000, DRCOG



Demonstrates Lack of Flexibility of High-Throughput Links (Mass Transit and Highway)


Arterial driving



Summary-US

• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) tend to grow with US Economy. Although currently unclear, no convincing evidence it will change.

• US Employment is decentralizing.• US Housing is decentralizing.

• Main Result: Car-focus culture likely to continue/grow in US


Summary-Denver

This mapping of the Denver Metro Area reinforces:1. Housing continues to grow at the periphery

(suburbs).2. Employment centers are highly dependent on

transportation infrastructure.3. Suburb-to-suburb trips dominate trips to and

from the central business district.4. City layout requires most people use highly

flexible transportation, mostly car.


Contact

[email protected]

+1-734-995-4307

[email protected]


Backup Slides


Boomtown relation to Central City

24 largest US Boomtowns, super-imposed in relationship to their city center.

Ave. distance of these top 24=35 km, whereas the Top 10=42 km.

19 of top 24, and all of the top 10, are in South and Western US.


Do Not Use This Material Without Permission from Author41White Line-Western US; Black Line-Eastern US



Denver 2010 Population Density

Estimation



Denver 2035 Population Density

Estimation



Denver 2010 Employment

Density Estimation

Note that employment centers are

highly reliant on transportation infrastructure, i.e. highways and airport.



“Non-stop” driving

Freeway+Expressway

= 44% VMT



Some Observations Regarding Denver Mass Transit

• In 2004, Denver voters agreed to 0.4% sales tax increase for mass transit expansion (started 2005).

• Large parts of ambitious expansion project (FasTracks) now in doubt (both building and operating budget).

• Current mass transit system (RTD) projected 2011 budget: $18M deficit. Considering fare increases and other measures.


Selection Criteria (1/2)A) Top 100 Metropolitan Area by population: Rationale: Vast majority

of the American economy found within this set (75% of U.S. economy, 62% of population, 9.2% growth from 2000-2008).

B) Located in South or West regions Rationale: Growth potential is at least triple that of North or Midwest (South and West grew at 12% from 2000-2008, East and Midwest only 3%).

C) Metropolitan Area, not Micropolitan Area Rationale: Growth in Metros is twice that of Micros (9.2% for Metros vs. 4.5% for Micros from 2000-2008).

D) Should not be limited on more than 1 side geographically Rationale: Oceans, mountains, geographical limitations for expansion can exert strong natural controls on urbanization that will not be typical of the overall set.


Selection Criteria (2/2)E) Not an outlier in terms of growth/size/etc. Rationale: New York City

and Los Angeles have economies of scale unlike other metros. Might include metrics like “Gross Metropolitan Product” that ensures the chose metro acts like a typical metro in economic performance (i.e., not too focused on retirement or one single industry for its projected growth).

F) Regional government entity and coordination Rationale: Because we are looking at entire metropolitan areas which mark a census definition and overlap multiple political entities, we need to find a representative area that coordinates different city data across a major portion of a metropolitan area.

G) Data Availability Most metros will not have data on outlying areas, which are critical for this analysis.

Outcome: Criteria a-f produced only two candidates: Denver-Aurora and Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, but Denver-Aurora had clearly the largest available data, and was the final choice.


Roadway Definitions

Freeway--controlled access, high-speed, divided highway with no at-grade crossings

Expressways--high-speed, divided highway with some control of access and few at-grade crossings

Principal Arterials--roads of varying lane number that allow efficient movement in between major zones of employment, development, etc. at high volume and access primarily at intersections

Minor Arterials--roads of varying lane number that augment and support the principal arterials

Collectors/Connectors--smaller roads that access the interiors of residential and other developments

Documents

Do Not Use This Material Without Permission from Author 1 Visualizing US Urbanization and Transportation Trends Ken Laberteaux Lab S Toyota Research Institute-North