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DMI forecasting system forBaltic-North Sea (DMI BSHcmod),
and also for Greenland,NW Shelf (Hycom)
Jens Murawski (DMI)
Agenda
• DMI BSHcmod: An operational
Baltic and North Sea model– History– Model features– Quality – Ongoing developments
• An introduction to– DMI drift model– N. Atlantic/Greenland model – HYCOM– Wave model - WAM
• 2000: BSH kindly provided its operational model BSHcmod
• 2000: BSHcmod run operationally in DMI with DMI forcing
• 2003: Information system – http://ocean.dmi.dk
• 2004: SST assimilation (ODON)
• 2005: MERSEA Baltic V1
• 2006: MERSEA Baltic V2
History of BSH/DMIcmod
1998: DMI operational oceanography section
2005: DMI Marine Forecasting Centre
2006: DMI Centre of Ocean and Ice
2006: Marine Ecological Modelling Centre (Jointly by DMI-NERI-DIFRES)
Organisation of the DMI
Current model features
Forcing
Open boundary:T/S: dynamic boundaryfrom POLCOMS Monthly climatologyWater level: Tides, surge,baroclinically correctedwater level
River runoff: realtime data from(SMHI, BSH) & adjusted climatology for the rest
Meteo. Forcing - DMI-Hirlam 15km/5km, 60/54 hours prognoses
Current DMI 3D ocean model: BSHcmod
• BSHcmod, provided by BSH 2000, developed by DMI
• 3 nested layers: 6-3-0.5nm
• Coupled ocean-ice
• two way nesting
• Flooding-drying
• 50 layers (8-2-2…-50)
• Twice daily, 54h forecast
• Daily river runoff + climatology NEA: 6 nm, NS/BS: 3 nm, IDW: 0.5 nm
DMI BSHcmod: new features
1.) Surface heat flux: Windspeed & Airtemp. dependent
2.) Including vertical Penetration of short wave radiation
3.) Vertikal mixing: K-epsilon, k-omega model adapted
4.) Horizontal mixing: a new term to control div/conv.
5.) Surface momentum flux: currents dependent
6.) Simplified & Full ensemble Kalman filter for SST assimilation
Surface heat flux (cont.): SSTChange heat flux coeffcient, Kara et al. (2000) CL= f (W,Ts–Ta)
Bias [Cº]
Comparisson withODON data for 2001
SST Bias improves ~ 0.1°C
Vertical mixing
Improving diffusivities of momentum, heat and salt
• k-ε turbulence modele.g. Axell, JGR (2002)
• stability functions in terms of shear and gradients of S and T
Canuto et al., JPO: Part I (2001) + Part II (2002)
k-ω based mixing scheme: salinity in Great Belt (preliminary)
Ref.
k-ω
DMI cmod validation
Days since 2000/07/15
Bottom temperature:FYN6700053 Old k-ω
New k-ω
spring summer autumn winter
Wind friction
Wind induced shearstress is currentvelocity dependend
k-ω surfaceboundary conditionsare z0 dependend
z0 is either const. orsig. wave heigth dep.
New: currents dependend wind friction and wave height dependend roughness length
Southern Baltic Sea
color: windspeedarrows: currents (magnitude and direction)
color: currents (magnitude)arrows: currents (direction)
Quality
Water level forecasts, peak error
DK stations, 2002-2004, 4 models
Cmod: <10% in 2004
MIKE 21: 2D FD; official storm surge model; ~18% 2002-2004
MOG2D: 2D FE, from 2003
Staumod: 2D version of Cmod, no stations in IDW
MO
G2D
200
4
MO
G2D
200
3
Stau
mod
200
3
Cm
od 2
003
Mik
e21
2003
Stau
mod
200
2
Cm
od 2
002
Mik
e21
2002
Mik
e21
2004
Cm
od 2
004
Stau
mod
200
4
Data assimilation, SST:
Larsen et al., JMS 2006
DA
model runs for 2001 by assimilating SST from different products (NOAA 12, 14, 16)
Control DA
Bias 0.78 0.07
RMSE 1.20 0.64
psukts
BSH/DMIcmod results
Surface currents Salinity
Comparison of satelite SST withsimulated temperature values
Model-data comparison: Drogden Buoy station, T/S at 3.6m (inflow signals)
Temperature, year 2004 Salinity, year 2004
Observation (red)Model data (blue)
Bias(z) = -0.7 ,..., -0.3Std(z) = 0.6 ,..., 1.1
Bias(z) = -0.03 ,..., 0.8Std(z) = 2.0 ,..., 2.6
Surface Temperature 1.0m
Bottom Temperature 36.6m
Bottom Salinity 36.6m
Surface Salinity 1.0m
NOVANAstation
VSJ 20925(southernKattegat)
North Atlantic/Greenland modelling
depth maps:Etopo2
0.5deg-10km res.22 layers
data assim.:sst
2x/day, 66h
ECMWF 6hly forcing
Outline
1) Ocean modelling:HYCOM setup for the Atlantic and Arctic Ocean (~50 km)Nested around Greenland (~10 km)
2) Drift modelling for 2005:Random walk diffusionNormal distributed in time (40 days window),1000 particles
2a) Drift as eggs:On top of the Irminger Water component (use fixed density), First feeding larvae after 300 degree-days
2b) Drift as pelagic larvae Surface: 20m, 40m, 60m (use fixed depth)Exponential temperature dependent increase in weight: Wi~Wi-1*exp(T)Settling when reaching 210 mg dry weight
SST monthly mean SSS monthly mean Profiles at Diskobay position
Operational forecast for Greenland
•Currents•Salinity•Temperature•Mixed layer deepness•Ice thickness and concentration
Drift model
Emergency module, used primarily for oil spill
Other apllications, floating object, dissolved substance, fish larvae drift, …
Circulation model add-on module (HYCOM or BSHcmod)
The Fu Shan Hai collision, May 2003
The vessel sank at 68m depth, and began to leak fuel oil
The oil rises as a plume from the sunken ship
10 day simulation of Fu Shan Hai accident
Wave model WAM Cycle4
depth maps:Etopo5
sea ice:NCEP
0.5deg-10km-2km resolution
4x/day, 60h
Ongoing developments
Wave-current interaction
• DMI BSHcmod-WAM coupling– Two-way interface ready– WAM with current refraction running pre-
oprational– More coupling mechanisms to be added:
(Wave induced mixing)
Wave-Current interaction,01.10.2007 12:00
Sign. wave height up to 7m Δ(sign. wave height) = 1m,…,1.5m
Windspeed up to 20m/s
Differences of about ± 1maround Greenland
SPM modelling
• GKSS SPM model is coupled with DMI BSHcmod• Wave influenced vertical exchange of SPM• Horizontal advection as passive tracer (Cmod)
Ecological modelling
• DMI BSHcmod-ERGOM coupling– Framework ready, in model calibration– Assimilating satellite chl-a – Operationalisation
Sediment dynamik influencesthe nutrients concentration inthe water column.
Sedimentconcentrationregulates thepenetration depthof light
ERGOM
HTTP://OCEAN.DMI.DK
Thank you!!