Division of Astronomical Sciences Update

(Life After the Senior Review)

Astronomy and Astrophysics Astronomy and Astrophysics Advisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee

11 October 200711 October 2007

Outline

Senior Review implementationSenior Review implementation ProgressProgress ConcernsConcerns

Interagency and AST NewsInteragency and AST News FY2008 and beyondFY2008 and beyond

Finding 1 - The Scientific Challenge

NSF finds this the most important conclusion of the report:“Proper maintenance of current facilities while

simultaneously developing and beginning operation of the proposed new facilities is infeasible under any reasonable expectations for federal budget support based on past funding levels. The cuts that are proposed to the existing program are as deep as possible without causing irreparable damage and will only allow a start to be made on new initiatives.”

“Senior Review” Recommended changesRecommended changes

Reduce support to VLBA to $3M by FY2001, closure if sufficient Reduce support to VLBA to $3M by FY2001, closure if sufficient outside funds not foundoutside funds not found

Reduce support to Arecibo/NAIC to $8M by FY2009 and to $4M Reduce support to Arecibo/NAIC to $8M by FY2009 and to $4M in FY2011, closure if additional outside funds not foundin FY2011, closure if additional outside funds not found

Support of GONG++ to cease 1 year after successful deployment Support of GONG++ to cease 1 year after successful deployment of NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (unless other support of NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (unless other support forthcoming)forthcoming)

Investigate possible reductions in administrative costs, scientific Investigate possible reductions in administrative costs, scientific staff costs, selective observatory programs and site operationsstaff costs, selective observatory programs and site operations

Shift balance of NOAO programs to provide increased access to Shift balance of NOAO programs to provide increased access to an optimized suite of high performance telescopes of all apertures an optimized suite of high performance telescopes of all apertures

in both hemispheresin both hemispheres

From the Conclusion “It should be emphasized that, in none of the proposed

actions can the facilities targeted be seen as redundant to the scientific enterprise. Instead, the SR is recommending reduced AST funding or closure of some telescopes that could be unique and productive for 20 years.”

“These findings, which go beyond the SR’s charge, may appear defeatist to some. However, the SR developed the more optimistic view that, with patience, cooperation and wise planning, it will be possible to realize the promise of the next generation of major observatories.”

Executive Summary

Radio-millimeter-submillimeter Program

NRAO Transition Program Very Long Baseline ArrayVery Long Baseline Array

Seek partners who will contribute personnel or Seek partners who will contribute personnel or financial support to the operations of the VLBA by financial support to the operations of the VLBA by 2011. 2011.

Limit AST support to $3M, close if remaining costs are Limit AST support to $3M, close if remaining costs are not found elsewhere. not found elsewhere.

Reduction in operating costs of GBTReduction in operating costs of GBT Reduction in the cost of administrative support Reduction in the cost of administrative support Reductions in scientific staff costsReductions in scientific staff costs

NAIC (Arecibo) Transition Program Taper to $8M per year AST support over next 3 years

Concentrate on surveys ~20% time for individual PIs Assumes ATM support at ~$2M/yr continues Need to consider alternate operational models

See cost review slides Seek other sources of support for operations By 2011, AST support limited to $4M. If other support

not sufficient to produce a viable operational model, recommends closure.

Cornell plan closes planetary radar ~ Oct 2008

Executive Summary

Solar Program

NSO Transition Program NSO should:

organize an orderly withdrawal of personnel and resources, including the SOLIS telescope, from Kitt Peak/Tucson and Sacramento Peak and start to close down operations at these sites as soon as ATST funding begins.

consolidate its management and science into a single headquarters as soon as possible.

Support of the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG++) project should cease one year after the successful deployment of NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, unless the majority of operations support is found from other sources.

Towards a National GSMT Program

Need to assure a healthy scientific enterprise going into the Need to assure a healthy scientific enterprise going into the GSMT era (community was heard in SR process)GSMT era (community was heard in SR process) Define the “System”Define the “System”

Appropriate range of aperture and accessAppropriate range of aperture and access Necessary instrumentation, maintained and Necessary instrumentation, maintained and

supportedsupported Assure that the system is robust against delays and Assure that the system is robust against delays and

uncertainty along the GSMT pathuncertainty along the GSMT path Path from development through construction and into Path from development through construction and into

operations, including successful partnership formation, is operations, including successful partnership formation, is complexcomplex Requires leadership and planning at unprecedented Requires leadership and planning at unprecedented

level at NSFlevel at NSF

Towards a National GSMT ProgramNOAO’s Role NSF has asked AURA/NOAO to act as NSF’s “Program Manager” for NSF has asked AURA/NOAO to act as NSF’s “Program Manager” for

GSMT developmentGSMT development Role similar to NASA center in development of major space missionsRole similar to NASA center in development of major space missions

Lead in defining the “system” and assuring its long-term healthLead in defining the “system” and assuring its long-term health Understand and champion national needs for a GSMTUnderstand and champion national needs for a GSMT

National Science Working Group (Meeting 8-9 November)National Science Working Group (Meeting 8-9 November) National “Design Reference Mission” to set scientific performance National “Design Reference Mission” to set scientific performance

expectations, operational modelsexpectations, operational models Promote development at a pace that recognizes both private and Promote development at a pace that recognizes both private and

federal timescalesfederal timescales Establish appropriate, symmetrical interfaces with TMT and GMTEstablish appropriate, symmetrical interfaces with TMT and GMT

Developing an NSF Response and Implementation Plan

AST is working closely with facilities to understand implications of recommendations as we consider possible implementation paths

NSF is active in encouraging and engaging in discussion with other possible partners in facility operations, including international partners and other funding agencies.

NASA for Arecibo, VLBA, GONG++ Commonwealth of Puerto Rico; Puerto Rican Universities; local business International agency meetings convened by AST

AST is working with the community and NOAO to determine where re-investment in existing OIR facilities should occur and in the development of an integrated and coordinated “System”

NOAO’s ReSTAR deliberations

Developing an NSF Response and Implementation Plan

AST is undertaking detailed cost reviews of each observatory necessary to understand where cost reductions can be made Understand operational costs, appropriate staffing levels Consider other operational and business models RFP has been issued; three bids likely

Explore costs and legal issues associated with recommendations e.g. environmental, deconstruction, divestiture, termination costs – engaging outside studies over the next year; first study is for Arecibo and first site visit just finished yesterday (report due ~ 1 Feb)

Now constructing the forward look - What can we accomplish as the funds become available under various budget models?

The Operations Challenge We have a 50 year tradition of operations that we must We have a 50 year tradition of operations that we must

examine, both for now and for future facilitiesexamine, both for now and for future facilities Can current level of service be delivered for less?Can current level of service be delivered for less?

Some opinions based on university-scale opsSome opinions based on university-scale ops We must understand the costs thoroughlyWe must understand the costs thoroughly Answer may well be, “No”Answer may well be, “No”

Do we need to look at different service models?Do we need to look at different service models? Changes similar to those at NAIC may be necessary at all Changes similar to those at NAIC may be necessary at all

AST facilitiesAST facilities Facilities managers and NSF must have an open dialogueFacilities managers and NSF must have an open dialogue

Domenici press release, e.g., is not a healthy Domenici press release, e.g., is not a healthy reactionreaction

AST Concerns Apparent short half-life of community attentionApparent short half-life of community attention

Many rumorsMany rumors Statements indicating report not read/assimilatedStatements indicating report not read/assimilated AST met with community leaders in Chicago and jointly crafted “Dear AST met with community leaders in Chicago and jointly crafted “Dear

Colleague” letter recently circulated by AASColleague” letter recently circulated by AAS

Increasing political pressure and interference with science community-based Increasing political pressure and interference with science community-based process and plan.process and plan.

Budget doubling removes need for Senior Review and invalidates Budget doubling removes need for Senior Review and invalidates conclusions?conclusions?

Growth in MREFC account can easily cover Arecibo problem?Growth in MREFC account can easily cover Arecibo problem? Arecibo future being determined without ATM consultation?Arecibo future being determined without ATM consultation? Letters from members of Congress to DirectorLetters from members of Congress to Director Bill introduced to guarantee continued support of AreciboBill introduced to guarantee continued support of Arecibo

Good Interagency News! Virtual Observatory MOU signed!Virtual Observatory MOU signed!

Onward to a joint solicitationOnward to a joint solicitation Excellent interactions with both NASA and DOEExcellent interactions with both NASA and DOE

Joint consideration of decadal survey proposal review Joint consideration of decadal survey proposal review and structure (including OMB and OSTP)and structure (including OMB and OSTP)

Regular, fruitful discussions between AST and NASA Regular, fruitful discussions between AST and NASA Astrophysics DivisionAstrophysics Division

NSF AST – DOE HEP interface very effective in on-NSF AST – DOE HEP interface very effective in on-going, joint reviews, decisions, and oversightgoing, joint reviews, decisions, and oversight

Other AST News 2008 Committee of Visitors2008 Committee of Visitors

Planning underway - John Carlstrom will chair Planning underway - John Carlstrom will chair the committeethe committee

Dates: 6 – 8 FebruaryDates: 6 – 8 February Consider serving if asked!Consider serving if asked!

FY2007 Close outFY2007 Close out Success rate – 24%Success rate – 24%

NSB declared ATST to be ready for inclusion in a NSB declared ATST to be ready for inclusion in a future budgetfuture budget

Charting the Future Sine qua nonSine qua non

Healthy grants programHealthy grants program Successful completion and operation of ALMASuccessful completion and operation of ALMA Robust support of base facilities (as defined by Robust support of base facilities (as defined by

Senior Review)Senior Review) Progress on GSMT, LSST, SKA Progress on GSMT, LSST, SKA → “TDPs”→ “TDPs” Resources for mid-scale projects Resources for mid-scale projects → “Mid-scale” → “Mid-scale”

{CMB, DETF, ExoPlanet, next Decade Survey small {CMB, DETF, ExoPlanet, next Decade Survey small and moderate}and moderate}

Models of budget outlookModels of budget outlook

Looking Forward to 2008(At President’s Request Level)

Healthy increase (~10%) in grants programHealthy increase (~10%) in grants program Grant support for facility users under studyGrant support for facility users under study

Partnerships in Astronomy and Astrophysics Research and Partnerships in Astronomy and Astrophysics Research and Education (PAARE, NSF 07-561)Education (PAARE, NSF 07-561)

New program helping young investigators start New program helping young investigators start instrumentation careers (grad students, post-docs, instrumentation careers (grad students, post-docs, beginning faculty)beginning faculty)

Increases in ATI (30%), TSIP (25%) and UROsIncreases in ATI (30%), TSIP (25%) and UROs NOAO up $2.3M to refurbish and modernize KPNO and NOAO up $2.3M to refurbish and modernize KPNO and

CTIO facilitiesCTIO facilities NRAO up $2M for ALMA early operationsNRAO up $2M for ALMA early operations GSMT program at $5M and SKA TDP at $3M per yearGSMT program at $5M and SKA TDP at $3M per year

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AST Budget Projections

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Actual+decadal survey Doubling to FY2017, inflation aftergrowth 4% Inflationary growth