Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU

Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University

[email protected]

617-282-9798 x101

Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education

http://www.cityvision.edu/

mailto:[email protected]

Part 1: About City Vision Christian Education for the

Bottom Half and the Majority World

Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)

47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)

2025 2050 2075 20930%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)

Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century

The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/

City Vision’s Focus: the Bottom Half

37 pt. growth

3 pt. growth

6 pt. growth

19 pt. growth

Traditional College Focus

City Vision’s Focus(Disruptive InnovationOpportunity)

2025 2050 2075 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile

Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile

City Vision’s Focus(Disruptive InnovationOpportunity)

2025 2050 2075 21000%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Difference in Projected Educational Attainment

Straight Line Projection

No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles

About City Vision University History: Started Rescue College in 1998 as a Program of

AGRM, DEAC Accreditation in 2005, Transferred to TechMission (nonprofit) in 2008

Degrees◦ Bachelor’s in Nonprofit Management, Addictions Studies, Missions,

Business (soon)◦ Master’s in Technology and Ministry

Statistics◦ More than 80% of students eligible for Pell ◦ About a 60% graduation rate ◦ Cumulative 91% job placement rate◦ Tripled enrollment since 2008 (50 to 150 students)

Goal is to be Radically Affordable◦ Undiscounted tuition $6,000/year undergrad and $9,000 grad

school◦ $3,000/year in developing countries

Global Opportunity

100 MillionStudentsin 2000

263 MillionStudentsin 2025(growth primarily in the developing world)

Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

By 2050, between 1 and 2.5 billion people will have a tertiary education.

City Vision’s International Strategy2015

◦$3,000/year business degree to developing countries

2016◦Launch new $3,000/year associate’s degree

2017◦Target: 1,000+ students in developing

countries2020 and beyond

◦Drop tuition to $2,000◦Target: 10k+ students

City Vision Cost StrategyAutomate everything but faculty interaction

◦ SIS: Homegrown in Salesforce◦ LMS: Moodle◦ Enrollment: use off the shelf marketing automation tools

Course Content ◦ Self-Developed 50%: (Junior, Senior)◦ Outsource 50%: (Freshmen, Sophomore, Saylor, Straighterline,

Paid Courseware vendors, MOOCs, open content)Personnel

◦ Use adjunct faculty/practitioners in low cost of living areas◦ Minimal staff and staff salaries

Marginal cost per student ◦ Currently less than $3,000/year◦ Need to scale to cover fixed recurring cost

Part 2. Strategic Analysis

ChangeAgent

ChangeAgency

YourInstitution

Christianity(Following Jesus)

1. Education for the bottom half/majority world2. Unbundling3. Education on Demand4. Student Centered vs. Faculty Centered5. Non-Western Growth

1. Economics of Online Education2. Christian Mega-Universities3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts4. Increasing Costs

Sustainability Challenges toChristian Higher Educationin the USA

(paradigms)

1. Economics of Online Education

1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students) is likely between $500-3,000/year

2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography

3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue)

4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation

13% of students are online only9% are in for-profit institutions

Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke UniversityAmbient Insight

• Higher education overall, about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.• Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market.

Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/

1. Online Education = ConsolidationGo Big or Go Home

2. Christian Mega-universities & Growth

Liberty U43%

Grand Canyon U39%

All of CCCU19%

Estimated Growth Since 2005

Total Growth: 175,808 students

Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.

Christianity

1. Educating the bottom half/Non-western Growth2. Unbundling3. Cradle to grave Christian education ecosystem4. Education on demand (Race with the machine)

1. Economics of Online Education2. Mega-Universities3. US Cultural & Demographic Shifts4. Increasing Costs

Sustainability Challenges toChristian Higher Educationin the USA

(paradigms)

Paradigm 2. Unbundling of the Computer Industry

Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove

U of A U of B

Virtually Integrated University

Univ.

Unbundled University

MOOCsOpen Ed Resources

Study Groups

ContractedCourses

Adjunct Faculty

Faculty Networks

Churches

Internship

Univ.

Univ.

Univ.Research

LabCorporations Individuals

OpenContent Publishers

Self-Publish

Univ.Student Community

Faculty Community

Course Materials

Content

KnowledgeDiscovery

Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University

Churches

U of C U of D

Student Community

Faculty Community

Course Materials

Content

KnowledgeDiscovery

City Vision’s Re-bundled Degree Strategy:Bridging MOOCs & Open Ed with Community Partners

City VisionCredentialed Independent Educational Providers (Straighterline,

Saylor)

Paid Coursewar

e(Pearson &

Mcgraw-Hill)

MOOCs & Free Open Education

Resources

Christian Courseware (free & paid)

Internship Sites

(70+ sites)

Credit Partnerships

(Prior Learning Assessment,

ACE & Testing)

Discipleship Study

Centers (in churches & ministries)

Families & Home

Schools

ContentPartners

CommunityPartners(B2B segments)

What business has the most locations in the USA?

14,146

25,900

Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/

314,000

What institution has the most locations in the USA?

City Vision Educational Philosophy

Online Education

Local Discipleship Study Groups:Life Change

Internships: Skills &Practical Work Experience

Part 3. Strategic Recommendations

Three Visions for Future Growth of HE1. Government

◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education: Obamacare for Higher Education

◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students◦ Problem: increases secularizing influence of government

education

2. Global Educational Conglomerate◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4

tech companies offering free education with a small payment for the credential

◦ Problem: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media conglomerates

3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education

◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand Christian market share in post-secondary education

Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

Future of Higher Education 2035Tier 1: The Elite

◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars) ◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist

Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies, Organic Farming

Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce

Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services,

videos, etc.◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers

Tier 5: Courseware platforms◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com


How to Survive the Coming Storm:Lessons from Industry Case Studies

1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale.

◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming

2. Offer both/and products to compete.◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix

3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths.

◦ Journalism & News: New York Times

4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth.◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix

5. Outcompete rather than withdraw.◦ Dominance of Christian radio vs. early Christian response

to Hollywood


Components Packaged in a Traditional College

Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf

The Core Competenciesof Christian Educationare the Hardest to Replace(Life Transformation &Meta-Content)

Paradigm 3: View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem.

Nearly FreeContent& Innovation

Christian College(Life Transformation)

+ BetterThan

Government Subsidized State University

In a platform world, how do we make the entire Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive?

Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy

Automation and Bloom’s Taxonomy

BecomingCommoditized• Freshman• Sophomore• High School

Core Competency• Grad School

• Senior

• Junior

Str

ateg

y: M

igra

te U

p

Race with the machine not against the machine

StrategyAccelerated educationwith automation

StrategyDouble Down

Blo

oms

Taxo

nom

y Le

vel

Low LevelBlooms

HighLevelBlooms

Subjectivity of AssessmentObjectiveAssessments

SubjectiveAssessments

Most Subject toCommoditization& Automation

Most Dependent on People

Paradigm 4. Education on Demand:Accelerate Education with AutomationExpand “Courses on Demand”

freshmen/sophomore options◦ Adaptive, competency based courses◦ Prior learning/test out credit

Dual Enrollment for Christian High School Students◦ Bluefield College: $135/course◦ Commoditizing lower levels of Bloom’s taxonomy

(Christian high school) becomes marketing investment for student acquisition

Add value through new 4th year◦ Internships◦ Study abroad◦ 4-year Bachelor’s/Master’s program

Further Recommendations1. Invest in marketing

◦ Facilities expense is scaled back to be replaced by marketing expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems)

2. Create an independent skunkworks division

◦ “New wine in new wineskins”◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where

to focus◦ Fund an independent division to provide low-cost online

education. i.e. College for America, APU’s University College, Eastern’s Esperanza, YourSchoolNameX

3. Develop plan to cut cost by 50% by 2035◦ Scale back building plans to what is essential ◦ Limit ancillary activities◦ Reinvest revenue from online programs in their growth

and quality, rather than using them only to sustain on-campus programs.

Potential Scenario: 2035-2050Global Scenario

◦ 10 times growth in Christian education globally◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are

nearly freeUS Scenario

◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state schools cannot compete in a competitive market

◦ Christian schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public higher education

◦ Christian higher education experiences major consolidation

◦ Christian schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft)

◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost providers

Summary: Key Takeaways1. Access is the dominant story for higher

education in the 21st century

2. Economics & technology are driving consolidation

3. Best strategy is to create a skunkworks

4. Second best strategy is to “race with the machines” not against by gaining core competencies in technology

5. View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem

Supreme Court Decision and Strategic Implications of Prospect of Losing Federal Aid

Bottom Half StrategyJob prep/RoI focusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international

focusFocus on scaleCould benefit from

CBEMore focus on the

poor

Lose Federal Aid StrategyJob prep/RoI FocusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international

focusFocus on scaleCBE likely to allow

CHEMore focus on the

rich

Developing a bottom-half strategy also prepares for a world without federal aid.

Tools to Help Change Agents

Tools for Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups with faculty and staff at your institution:◦YouTube Playlist: http://goo.gl/6Wptak (includes

this talk)◦Udemy MOOC on Disruptive Innovation in

Christian Higher Education: Coming soon

As educators the primary thing we can do is to educate those who have the power to bring change.

http://goo.gl/6Wptak



For More InformationDissertation: “Disruptive Innovation in Christian

Higher Education and the Poor.” goo.gl/nzkhRP ◦ Bibliography: https://www.zotero.org/andrewsears/items

Slideshare for this talk: http://goo.gl/4dQggf Website: www.cityvision.eduLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears Contact: [email protected] 617-282-9798

x101

http://goo.gl/nzkhRP

http://goo.gl/nzkhRP

https://www.zotero.org/andrewsears/items

https://www.zotero.org/andrewsears/items

http://goo.gl/4dQggf

http://goo.gl/4dQggf

http://www.cityvision.edu/

http://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears

mailto:[email protected]

Suggested Reading Horn, M. B., Staker, H., & Christensen, C. M. (2014). Blended: Using

Disruptive Innovation to Improve Schools (1 edition). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Khan, S. (2013). The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined (Reprint edition). New York: Twelve.

Christensen, C., Johnson, C. W., & Horn, M. B. (2010). Disrupting Class, Expanded Edition: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.

DeMillo, R. A. (2011). Abelard to Apple: the fate of American colleges and universities. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.

Carey, K. (2015). The End of College: Creating the Future of Learning and the University of Everywhere. New York: Riverhead Books.

Christensen, C. M., & Raynor, M. E. (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth (1 edition). Boston, Mass: Harvard Business School Press.

Craig, R. (2015). College Disrupted: The Great Unbundling of Higher Education. New York: Palgrave Macmillan Trade.

McCluskey, F. B., & Winter, M. L. (2012). The Idea of the Digital University: Ancient Traditions, Disruptive Technologies and the Battle for the Soul of Higher Education. Policy Studies Organization.

Selingo, J. J. (2013). College (un)bound: the future of higher education and what it means for students. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

DiscussionPart 1: Bottom Half

◦Access, Majority World, Pricing Changes Part 2: Strategic Analysis

◦Consolidation, Unbundling, Content is FreePart 3: Strategic Recommendations

◦Future: Gov’t, Corporate, Tier 2 (CCCU), Tier 3 (City Vision)

◦Christian ecosystem◦On Demand, CBE, Adaptive, Accelerated Ed◦Transformation/meta-content vs. commoditized

content◦Skunkworks, Change Agents

Dr. Andrew Sears

Concluding Discussion

Constraints on InnovationDebt/Lack of capitalCurrent cost structureCommitment to facultyPhysical plant/sunk costPolitical realitiesLack of core competency in innovationMissional constraintsOutdated underlying worldview/myths

The Change AgentChange agents as Linkers

The main role of the change agent is to facilitate the flow of innovations from a change agency to an audience of

clients Change agents usually possess a high degree of expertise regarding the innovations that are being diffused

The sequence of Change Agent Roles

1. To develop a need for change on the part of clients

2. To establish an information exchange relationship

3. To diagnose problems

4. To create an intent to change in the client

5. To translate intentions into action

6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance

7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients

A Change Agent’s relative success in securing the adoption of innovations by clients is positively related to:

8. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting clients

9. A client orientation rather than a change agency orientation

10. The degree to which the diffusion program is compatible with clients’ needs

11. The change agent’s empathy with clients

12. His or her homophily with clients

13. Credibility in the clients’ eyes

14. The extent to which he or she works through opinion leaders

15. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovations

Source: Diffusion of Innovation, Chapter 9, Everett Rogers, Slide/Graphic from: http://goo.gl/gQlFtB

ChangeAgent

ChangeAgency

YourSchool

What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1

Increased Productivity in Other Sectors

Increased Cost of High

Skilled Labor = Increase Costs of Faculty &

Senior Administrat

ion

Increased•

standardized tests• large

lectures• teaching assistants

• administrat

ive staff• adjuncts

Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1Baumol’s Cost DiseaseEconomics of Superstars

Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000.Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.

What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2

Increased College Attainment of Rich & Wealth Concentration

More Colleges Competing for Students in the top

Income Quartile (who pay full tuition)

Increased• resort-like campus• building costs• student services

Decreasing Gov’t Funding of Higher Education

Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

Creates Prisoners dilemma arms race on investing in capital projects.

Understanding the For-Profit Business Model

Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdfhttp://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf

Marketing 3389 35%

Profit 1848 19%

Instruction 217722%

Other 2295.17766497

462 24%

For Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon)

Private Nonprofit: 32%

Comparing Business ModelsFor Profit

◦ Revenue: $11,130 per student◦ Instruction: 26%

Private Nonprofit◦ Revenue: $37,869 per student◦ Instruction: 33%◦ Research: 12.5%

Public◦ Revenue: $18,922 per student◦ Instruction: 28%◦ Research: 14%

Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf

Potential Ways for Traditional CHE to Partner with City Vision

Articulation AgreementsServing as a “skunkworks” for multiple

schoolsCity Vision as a Christian Community

College feeder school (Associate’s degrees)◦Opens up new markets for low-income and

international schoolsYour faculty volunteer to support City

Vision’s development of ultra low cost degree program

Informal diffusion of innovation partnerships

Consulting

Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnum

5 pt. decline

10 pt. decline

Gap Doublesto 10 points

5 point gap

Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among the poor affecting their church attendance?

Appendix

5. Cost: Increasing Cost of Higher Education

Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor

Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA.

Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies

Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/

The Race Between Education and Technology

1915-1980 1980-2005-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring DegreesEducation > Tech Job Loss

An

nu

al G

row

th

3. Growth of For Profits

Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).

Essential Elements of Christian Education

1. Christian worldview2. Christian community3. Christian content4. Christian care for stakeholders

Process for Modular Christian Education

Theology & Christian

Worldview

Audience, Pedagogy & Goals

Christian Community & Meta Content

ChristianCourses Theology Courses Secular Courseware Secular MOOCs & Open

Education Resources

Subj

ects

PCs

Mobile

Disruptive Innovation Theory

Mainframes

Traditional

Higher Educatio

n

Low-Volume Online

Ed

For ProfitHigher Education


High Price

OnlineEd

Radically Affordable & AccessibleOnline Ed

Community College

ChristianSocial Services

Radically AffordableSocially ResponsibleChristian Education

City Vision Strategy

Rescue CollegeUrban Missions

1998-2007

City Vision College2008-14

City Vision University2015 -


Image Source: Wikimedia

Online education is here

Cell Phones in 1983

Smart Phones: Disruptive Technology

Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press. p. 289

“People with a smart phone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”

Changing Role of Workers & Consumers

Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek

Changing Role of Workers & Consumers

KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek

5. From Faculty Centric to Student CentricSharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty

Regulators

InnovatorsIncumbents

Students

Faculty

Reimagining Role of FacultyCase Studies:

◦Music industry, journalism, TEDFind Research Funding or Find your “TED

Talk”◦Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”

Read Platform, The Startup of You and The Alliance

Establish your platform across multi-format and multi-channel revenue sources◦Spread ideas horizontally across different

media and markets◦Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, etc.

The Opportunity Divide:Mismatch of Jobs & Education

Jobs in 2018

People in 2012

Difference

Less than High School 10% 12.42% -2.4%

High School Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7%

Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0%Associate’s

Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6%Bachelor’s

Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5%

Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%

21st Century Challenge: College Graduation

Changing our Educational Trajectory

Source: Lumina Foundation Vision

20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation

Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.

2025 2050 2075 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile

Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile

21st CenturyDisruptive InnovationOpportunity

City Vision’s Focus

Focus ofTraditionalChristianHigher Education

2025 2050 2075 21000%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Difference in Projected Educational Attainment

Straight Line Projection

No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles

Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort

Figure 11. Percent of Population 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed High School or College

University of Phoenix (2010)Enrollment = 600,000

University of Phoenix (2015)Enrollment = 215,000

Current Stage of Online Education

LMS Stage Courseware Stage


Innovation Cycle of Online Education

Traditional Higher Education

Traditional Monastery Higher Education Model

Local ChristianCommunity

Practical Work ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor

Distant From

Students

Re-bundling Online Education with Church Study Groups & Internships

Local Discipleship &Study Groups

Practical Work Experience

Distant From

Students

Instructor

Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation Christian Megauniversities

◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon Competency Based Education

◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting

Radically New Education Models◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision

Christian Open Education (next slide) Investment and Outsourcing Companies

◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education Global Innovators

◦ Global University Course Vendors & Clearinghouses

◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House

Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses Free or Open Christian Content Providers

◦ Open Biola, Covenant, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org

Aggregators of Christian Course Content: ◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo

Low Cost Christian CEU Providers◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu,

livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com

Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh,

connect.ligonier.org, CUGN.org

http://open.biola.edu/

http://open.biola.edu/

http://www.covenantseminary.edu/resources/

http://luxvera.regent.edu/

http://luxvera.regent.edu/

http://christianuniversity.org/

https://www.christianleadersinstitute.org/

http://harvestime.org/

http://www.insight.org/CEU

http://www.lifepointemedia.com/

http://www.lifeway.com/ceu

http://livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/



http://www.precept.org/ceu

http://www.sampsonresources.com/

http://www.sampson.ed.com/

http://www.walkthru.org/ceu

http://www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses

https://www.bsfinternational.org/studies

http://christiancounselingceu.com/

Strategy for Serving the Bottom Half

1. Radically Affordable◦ Radical low cost and low/no debt

2. Ease of Access◦ Location, Time, Working Students, Mobile

3. Remedial education available if needed◦ Adaptive for students at any level

4. Cultural fit ◦ Adult Friendly, No Assimilation


Stage in Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees

USAverage

GlobalAverage

TopQuartile

3rd Quartile

1st & 2nd Quartile

4. Demographic Shifts: The End of the Good Times

Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.

Change High School Graduate by State


Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity


Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by Level of Household Net Worth

The Problem with Only Credentialing

The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the gap has recently been around $2,000.

Source: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VUJT69LF8ep

College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile

http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom

Growth of For Profit Education


For Profits Dominate Age 22 and above


For Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students


For Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students


Average Revenue per Student


Average Spending Per Student


Instructional Spending by Type


For Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid


For Profits Highest Load Debt Per Student


Figure 15. Percent of Church Growth by Region

Figure 16. Christian Membership by Region

Architectural Diagram of Courseware Ecosystems

Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf

Environmental (adaptive)vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy

Tier 3 StrategyFocus on scale

◦ Goal is to be able to price close to marginal cost per student

◦ Examples: College for America, MegauniversitiesUse lean startup methodology to innovate

◦ Lean marketing, lean course development, growth hacking

◦ Bi-cultural across tech and education with tech dominantCut cost

◦ fast follower◦ build on courseware platforms◦ partner with low-income communities & developing

countries◦ highly automate back-office functions

Disrupt yourself strategically◦ At lowest levels of education and in untapped markets

Idea 1. MOOC on Disruption in CHEOpportunity

◦Publish a multimedia toolkit as a free MOOC Udacity that change agents in CHE could use to generate discussion on their campuses

Plan◦Extend material from Andrew Sears’

presentation and dissertation into an open online course (more adaptable than a book)

◦Include content from leading CHE institutions (like George Fox U, etc.)

Funding Proposal◦$10k-20k to fund course development &

marketing

Idea 2: Ultra-Low Cost Christian Associate’s Degree

Opportunity◦ Provide an Ultra-Low Cost ($3,000/year) Christian

Associate’s Degree targeting US market to Serve as Feeder to CCCU Schools (functioning like an Online Christian Community College)

Plan◦ Expand overall CHE market by providing new pricing level◦ Provide alternative to Community college system that

provides less than 1% transfer rate to Christian schools◦ Help identify top tier students from lower-income

backgrounds to transfer to Christian universities◦ Utilize free Christian materials (like Our Daily Bread

University)Funding Proposal

◦ $20k-50k for course development + $20k-$50k for marketing

Idea 3. Ultra-low Cost ($3k/yr) Christian Business Degree for Developing Countries

Opportunity ◦We have partners lined up to deliver 1,000+

students within 2 years, and we could use seed capital to ramp up now in preparation

Plan◦Need to hire dean and support staff now to

ramp up ◦See attached degree summary

Funding Proposal◦Could use $100k to $500k as a grant or an

evergreen loan

Method

Students

Mission and Methods

Mission

Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg





Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf

Global Projection on Tertiary Education(baseline and optimistic)

Global Projection on Tertiary Education(four scenerios)

Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

Documents

Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU