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Disruptive ChangeAreas of Opportunity in
2018 & Beyond
James L. CallinanOsterweis Capital Management
OSTERWEIS.COM 2
Disruption in My Career
1990s: EmergenceofComputer Services
• Rise ofconsumerInternet madepossiblebylowcostcomputers• Internetasacontentarea – adsandcommercebecomebusinessmodels• Online orderingbecomesadistributionmechanism• Modemsgivewaytopacketswitches andlateropticalswitches
2000s: DotcomBust– Disinvestment &ExcessCapacityGive WaytoOpportunity
• Internetbecomesplacetodotasks• Googleestablishesleadershiprole• Interactivewebflourishes(e.g.,Googlemaps,YouTube)• Expediacreatesvertical e-commerce
2010&Beyond
• CompetitorstoGoogleforadvertisinggrow(i.e.,Facebook)• Increasingbandwidthallowsformorevideo• Customizedshoppingexperiences– ipsy,stitchfix,etc.• Snapchat…
OSTERWEIS.COM 3
Opportunity in Small Cap Growth
Note:ValuationmodelconsistsofrelativeTrailingandForwardP/E,PricetoBook,PriceToSalesandfrom2002PricetoCashFlow.FromMarch31,2016forwardestimatesarefromJeffries.LastdatapointasofMarch31,2018.PastPerformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Source:FTSERussell;Jefferies
RelativeValuation
Percen
tileRa
nk
Russell2000Growthvs.Russell2000Value
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-93 Dec-94 Jun-96 Dec-97 Jun-99 Dec-00 Jun-02 Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12 Jun-14 Dec-15 Jun-17
Percentile (LHS) Relative Performance (RHS)
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0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Low P/E Stocks High P/E Stocks
Beta (Current)S&P500
0.96x
1.23x
High-P/E Stocks Are Rarely This Safe!
Low-P/E Stocks Are Seldom This
Risky!
Long-TermAverage
Long-TermAverage
... But Low P/E Has Rarely Been This Risky!
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Avg NTM PE of Low Beta (S&P 500)
Yes, Defense Has Rarely Been This Expensive ...
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Low P/E Stocks High P/E Stocks
Beta (Current)S&P500
Times Are Changing ... “Cheap” Valuations Isn’t The Potential “Safety Net” It Used To Be
Opportunity in Small Cap Growth
Source:CornerstoneMacro.DatainbothchartsisfromJanuary1990throughFebruary2018
HighP/E StocksRarelyHaveaBeta
thisLow
OSTERWEIS.COM 5
Retail Companies Founded by Decade
Source:KPCB,Retailindustry.about.com(1900s– 1980s),Ranker(1990s),InternetRetailer“2016Top500Guide”(2000s– 2010s)Note:Companiesshownaboveinchronologicalorderbyfoundingyearbydecade.Companiesfrom2000sonwardsselectedasdiversesetoffast-growingcompaniesbasedonwebsalesdatafromtheInternetRetailer“2016Top500Guide.”GenZdefinedasthosebornafter2000.In 2015,theyareages0-15.Millennialsdefinedasthosebornbetween1980and2000.In2015,theyareages15-35.GenXdefinedasthosebornbetween1965and1979.In2015,theyareages36-50.Boomersdefinedasthosebornbetween1946-1964.In2015,theyareages51-70.Silentsdefinedasthosebornbetween1925– 1945.In2015,theyareages71– 90.GIGenerationdefinedasthosebornbetween1900– 1924.In2015,theyareage91– 115.Notethere arevaryingopinionsonwhatyearseachgenerationbeginandend.
IllustrationSource:KPCB
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Internet-Related Dislocations = Still Early Stage
IllustrationSource:KPCB
Source:KPCB,CapIQ,PublicFilings*2015revenueforallcompaniesreflectsCY2015.Currentmarketcapsasof5/31/16.HistoricalmarketcapsforWal-Mart/AmazonshownasofdateofAmazonIPO(5/15/1997).HistoricalmarketcapsforViacom/NetflixshownasofdateofCBSspinofffromViacom(1/3/2006).
OSTERWEIS.COM 7
Why Invest in Disruptors?
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Successful Ongoing Disruptors
Amazon Introduced onlineshoppingforbooksresultingthebirthofonlineshopping
Illumina Caught firmslikeAffymetrixbysurprisewiththeirlowcostgenemappingtechnology
Year ActiveAccounts Revenue PerAcct.1997 1.5million $1802017 310million $439
CosttoSequenceHumanGenome #ofGenomes Sequenced
2006 $300,000 2014 65,0002017 $1,000 2016 500,000
OSTERWEIS.COM 9
Concentrated Small Cap
Disruption in the Lending Market
10 Largest Mortgage Originators
1996WellsFargoCountrywideFleetMortgageChaseManhattanBAMortgageResourceBancsharesMortgageStandard FederalGroupNorthAmericanMortgageFlagstarBankFTMortgage
Highlightingindicatesnon-traditionallenders.Source:WellsFargoSecurities,LLC
2017WellsFargoChaseManhattanQuickenLoansPennyPacUSBankCaliber FundingAmerihomeMortgageUnited ShoreFinancialServicesSunTrustMortgageFlagstar Bank
OSTERWEIS.COM 10
The LendingTree Model
AccesstoMultipleOffers
Cost-EfficientCustomerAcquisition
RetailBanks
AutoLenders
HighlyTargeted,PredictableVolume
Clicks,CallsandDataReferrals
Real-TimeReporting&Analytics
FreeCreditScores
Tools&Resources
Ratings&Reviews
Mortgage
P2PLenders
ATrueOnlineMarketplaceEnablingConsumersandLenderstoShopforEachOther
SmallBusinessLenders
StudentLoans
CreditCards
Borrow
ers Lenders
IllustrationSource:LendingTree
Leadgenerationsubstitutesforthe“Trusted”Lender– MultipleOffers=MoreTrusted
OSTERWEIS.COM 11
Massive Market Opportunity
~$2.0bn(1)
CoreTargetMarket
~18%MarketShare(4)
~$10.4bn(2)
USFinancialServicesOnlineAdvertising
~3.5%Penetration(4)
~$19bn(3)
USBank&CreditUnionMarketingSpending
~1.9%Penetration(4)
Core
TotalAddressableMarket
AdjacentOpportunities
Sources:1)MortgageBrokersAssociation,WallStreetresearch,WallStreetJournal,DepartmentofEducation,FederalReserve,ScotsmanGuide,RealtyTrac,
Booz&Co.,companyfilings,internalestimates.2)eMarketer,May2015,includesadvertisingthatappearsondesktopandlaptopcomputersaswellasmobilephonesandtablets;inclusiveof$2.0bn
coretargetmarketasperinternalestimates.3)TheFinancialBrandandAiteGroup,"2015StateofBank&CreditUnionMarketing"ascitedinAiteGroupblogpost,Jan28,2015.4)MarketshareandpenetrationpercentagesarebasedonLTMrevenue(asofSeptember30,2016)of$361.9mm.
IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation
OSTERWEIS.COM 12
Source:InternetTrends- 2016,KPCB
PopularityofBusinessContactChannelsbyGeneration
Dealing with Changing Consumer Preferences
IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation
(
OSTERWEIS.COM 13
Source:LendingTree
LendingTree Market Expansion
IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation
Pre-2007Post-2007
OSTERWEIS.COM 14
TotalMarketSize
Est.OnlineAdMarket
FragmentedSuppliers/Buyers
HighValuePurchase
Frequency
MobileAdoption
InventoryDifferentiation
KeyOnlinePlayers
MarketCap(4)
Expedia/Priceline Paved the Way for Vertical Disruption
13
Substantialvalueupsiderelativetosimilarmarkets
3
Significantloanoriginationvolume
todriveTAMexpansion
1
Meaningfulopportunityforincreaseddigitalpenetration
2
Travel Lending
$1.3tr(1) $2.4tr(2)
$13bn(1) $10bn(3)
C EB EE DD CC C
$102.9bn(5) $1.9bn(6)
1
2
3$97.6bn(5) $2.2bn(6)
$1.3tr(1)
$13bn(1) $10bn(3)
$2.4tr(2)
Source:LendingTree
B
IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation
Source:CapitalIQandWallStreetResearch.1)WallStreetResearch.2)BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,DepartmentofEducation,FederalReserveBankofNewYork,MortgageBrokers Association,ScotsmanGuide,WallStreetJournal,internaldata.3)eMarketer,U.S.FinancialServicesIndustryDigitalAdSpending,2014-2020,March2016.Inclusiveofinternalestimateof~$2.0bnforonlineleadgeneration.4)CapitalIQ.5)CombinationofPricelinemarketcap:$73.4bn,Expediamarketcap:$17.1bnandTripAdvisormarketcap:$7.1bn.Marketcapasof January 4,2017.6)CombinationofLendingTreemarketcap:$1.2bnandBankratemarketcap:$1.0bn.MarketcapasofJanuary4,2017. 14
OSTERWEIS.COM 15
Current Market
U.S.VC-backedIPOsbyYear
Source:NVCA 2017Yearbook,DataProvidedbyPitchBook
CapitalInvested($B)
#ofDealsClosed
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CapitalInvested($B)
#ofDealsClosed
OSTERWEIS.COM 16
Current Market: West Coast Focused55% of Capital Invested was in West Coast States
Source:NVCA2018Yearbook,DataProvidedbyPitchBook
2017VCDeals&CompanyCountsbyState
CompanyCount %ofTotal
CapitalInvested($1M) %ofTotal
California 2,749 34.23% 43,360.69 51.03%
NewYork 925 11.52% 12,265.25 14.43%
Massachusetts 555 6.91% 8,972.81 10.56%
Texas 396 4.93% 1,811.04 2.13%
Florida 226 2.81% 1,515.31 1.78%
Washington 314 3.91% 1,762.18 2.07%
Illinois 218 2.71% 1,948.13 2.29%
Utah 106 1.32% 1,050.24 1.24%
Pennsylvania 230 2.86% 901.80 1.06%
Colorado 276 3.44% 1,220.47 1.44%
AllOthers 2,036 25.35% 10,166.62 11.96%
Totals 8,031 84,974.54
OSTERWEIS.COM 17
SecularRevenueGrowth
DisciplinedSecuritySelection
ConcentratedPositions
Concentrated Small Cap
Emerging Opportunity Philosophy
Alpha
OSTERWEIS.COM 18
Concentrated Small Cap
The Three “M’s”
Rapidly growing companies can suffer from three “M”s
Mysterious Mistakes Management
Newercompaniesandindustriescanbehardtounderstandandmaybeignoredearlyon
Rapidlygrowing,innovativecompaniescanmakeshort-term missteps
Earlystagecompanieswithfounder-CEOsmayhavedifficultymanagingthroughtheirgrowthphase
OSTERWEIS.COM 19
Process seeks to identify:Anchor Points
Focusedgrowthplans,ideallyarticulatedbytopmanagement
Quantifiablegoalandideallymultiplesofpresentsize
Attainablewithin3-5yearinvestmenthorizon
Abilitytocaptureintermediatesuccess
Achievablewithpresentcorporateresources1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1 Jim Collins, From Good to Great, Why Some Companies Make the Leap and Others Don’t, Harper Collins Publishers Inc., 2001.
Anchor Points Can Provide Conviction
OSTERWEIS.COM 20
Sample Anchor Points
Based on OCM’s research. Holdings are subject to change and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
LendingTreeconnectsconsumerswithmultiplelenders.Itexpectstoreach$3billioninsalesin5yearsasthefirmgrowsfrom6%to20%ofthe$15billionspentadvertingonlinebyfinancialinstitutions.
U.S.opportunityis3millionAFib cardiacmonitoringpatchesperyear.Estimatedtorampfrom270,000in2017to1.2millionat$400perpatch.
Globalopportunitytodeliverover1millionportableoxygenunitsperyearby2025generating$1.1billioninrevenue.
Enovausesanonlinestrategytomakeloanstomiddleclassborrowers.Its$3billionloanoriginationgoalistogenerate$500millionofEBITDAinfiveyears.
OSTERWEIS.COM 21
• FinTech (E-Commerce for loans, banking, investments)
• Health Care:– Medical Devices – Selling to consumers and bypassing traditional gatekeepers
– Biotech – Gene therapy, targeted therapy, M&A
– Services – Value based care
• Consumer Internet Services
• Technology:– AI
– Data Lakes
– Software Security
– Cloud Infrastructure
Concentrated Small Cap
Future Areas to Watch
OSTERWEIS.COM 22
Disclosures
TheEmergingOpportunityFundisavailablebyprospectusonly.TheFund’sinvestmentobjectives,risks,chargesandexpensesmustbeconsideredcarefullybeforeinvesting.ThesummaryandstatutoryprospectusescontainthisandotherimportantinformationabouttheFund,anditmaybeobtainedbycallingtoll-free(800)700-3316,orvisitingwww.osterweis.com.PleasereadtheprospectuscarefullybeforeinvestingtoensuretheFundisappropriateforyourgoalsandrisktolerance.
Earningsgrowthisnotameasureofthefund'sfutureperformance.Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.
Diversificationdoesnotassureaprofit,nordoesitprotectagainstalossinadecliningmarket.
TheRussell3000IndexisamarketcapitalizationweightedequityindexmaintainedbyFTSERussellthatseekstobeabenchmarkoftheentireU.S.stockmarket.
TheRussell2000Indexisanindexmeasuringtheperformanceofthe2,000smallestcompaniesintheRussell3000Index.
TheOsterweisEmergingOpportunityFundmayinvestinunseasonedcompanies,whichinvolveadditionalriskssuchasabruptorerraticpricemovements.TheFundmayinvestinsmallandmid-sizedcompanies,whichmayinvolvegreatervolatilitythanlarge-sizedcompanies.TheFundmayinvestinIPOsandunseasonedcompaniesthatareintheearlystagesoftheirdevelopmentandmayposemoreriskcomparedtomoreestablishedcompanies.TheFundmayinvestinETFs,whichinvolverisksthatdonotapplytoconventionalfunds.Higherturnoverratesmayresultinincreasedtransactioncosts,whichcouldimpactperformance.Fromtimetotime,theFundmay haveconcentratedpositionsinoneormoresectorssubjectingtheFundtosectoremphasisriskincludingthehealthcaresector,whichmaybeaffectedbygovernmentregulation,restrictions,pricingandothermarketdevelopmentsandthetechnologysector,whichtends to bemorevolatilethantheoverallmarket.TheFundmayinvestinforeignandemergingmarketsecurities,whichinvolvegreatervolatilityandpolitical,economicandcurrencyrisksanddifferencesinaccountingmethods.Theserisksmayincreaseforemergingmarkets.
OsterweisCapitalManagementistheadvisertotheOsterweisFunds,whicharedistributedbyQuasarDistributors, LLC.[33040]
ForRegisteredprofessionaluseonly:Notfordistributiontothepublic.
OSTERWEIS.COM 23
Asof3/31/2018,theFund’stoptenholdingsasapercentageoftotalassetswere:
Fundholdingsandsectorallocationsaresubjecttochangeandarenotrecommendationstobuyorsellanysecurity.Currentandfutureholdingsaresubjecttorisk.FurtherinformationabouttheFund’sportfolioallocationasofthelastdayofthemost recentcalendarquarterisavailablebyvisitingwww.osterweis.com.
Disclosures
Holding %ofTotalPortfolioBio-Techne Corp. 4.5LigandPharmaceuticals 4.0PlanetFitnessInc.- ClassA 3.6Nutanix Inc.- ClassA 3.5GTT CommunicationsInc. 3.4ZillowGroupInc.- ClassA 3.3InogenInc. 3.1Rapid7Inc. 3.1EtsyInc. 3.0PetIQ Inc. 2.9