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Disruptive Change Areas of Opportunity in 2018 & Beyond James L. Callinan Osterweis Capital Management

Disruptive Change Areas of Opportunity in 2018 & Beyond · In 2015, they are ages 0-15. Millennials defined as those born between 1980 and 2000. In 2015, they are ages 15 -35. Gen

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Page 1: Disruptive Change Areas of Opportunity in 2018 & Beyond · In 2015, they are ages 0-15. Millennials defined as those born between 1980 and 2000. In 2015, they are ages 15 -35. Gen

Disruptive ChangeAreas of Opportunity in

2018 & Beyond

James L. CallinanOsterweis Capital Management

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Disruption in My Career

1990s: EmergenceofComputer Services

• Rise ofconsumerInternet madepossiblebylowcostcomputers• Internetasacontentarea – adsandcommercebecomebusinessmodels• Online orderingbecomesadistributionmechanism• Modemsgivewaytopacketswitches andlateropticalswitches

2000s: DotcomBust– Disinvestment &ExcessCapacityGive WaytoOpportunity

• Internetbecomesplacetodotasks• Googleestablishesleadershiprole• Interactivewebflourishes(e.g.,Googlemaps,YouTube)• Expediacreatesvertical e-commerce

2010&Beyond

• CompetitorstoGoogleforadvertisinggrow(i.e.,Facebook)• Increasingbandwidthallowsformorevideo• Customizedshoppingexperiences– ipsy,stitchfix,etc.• Snapchat…

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Opportunity in Small Cap Growth

Note:ValuationmodelconsistsofrelativeTrailingandForwardP/E,PricetoBook,PriceToSalesandfrom2002PricetoCashFlow.FromMarch31,2016forwardestimatesarefromJeffries.LastdatapointasofMarch31,2018.PastPerformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Source:FTSERussell;Jefferies

RelativeValuation

Percen

tileRa

nk

Russell2000Growthvs.Russell2000Value

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-93 Dec-94 Jun-96 Dec-97 Jun-99 Dec-00 Jun-02 Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12 Jun-14 Dec-15 Jun-17

Percentile (LHS) Relative Performance (RHS)

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0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Low P/E Stocks High P/E Stocks

Beta (Current)S&P500

0.96x

1.23x

High-P/E Stocks Are Rarely This Safe!

Low-P/E Stocks Are Seldom This

Risky!

Long-TermAverage

Long-TermAverage

... But Low P/E Has Rarely Been This Risky!

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Avg NTM PE of Low Beta (S&P 500)

Yes, Defense Has Rarely Been This Expensive ...

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Low P/E Stocks High P/E Stocks

Beta (Current)S&P500

Times Are Changing ... “Cheap” Valuations Isn’t The Potential “Safety Net” It Used To Be

Opportunity in Small Cap Growth

Source:CornerstoneMacro.DatainbothchartsisfromJanuary1990throughFebruary2018

HighP/E StocksRarelyHaveaBeta

thisLow

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Retail Companies Founded by Decade

Source:KPCB,Retailindustry.about.com(1900s– 1980s),Ranker(1990s),InternetRetailer“2016Top500Guide”(2000s– 2010s)Note:Companiesshownaboveinchronologicalorderbyfoundingyearbydecade.Companiesfrom2000sonwardsselectedasdiversesetoffast-growingcompaniesbasedonwebsalesdatafromtheInternetRetailer“2016Top500Guide.”GenZdefinedasthosebornafter2000.In 2015,theyareages0-15.Millennialsdefinedasthosebornbetween1980and2000.In2015,theyareages15-35.GenXdefinedasthosebornbetween1965and1979.In2015,theyareages36-50.Boomersdefinedasthosebornbetween1946-1964.In2015,theyareages51-70.Silentsdefinedasthosebornbetween1925– 1945.In2015,theyareages71– 90.GIGenerationdefinedasthosebornbetween1900– 1924.In2015,theyareage91– 115.Notethere arevaryingopinionsonwhatyearseachgenerationbeginandend.

IllustrationSource:KPCB

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Internet-Related Dislocations = Still Early Stage

IllustrationSource:KPCB

Source:KPCB,CapIQ,PublicFilings*2015revenueforallcompaniesreflectsCY2015.Currentmarketcapsasof5/31/16.HistoricalmarketcapsforWal-Mart/AmazonshownasofdateofAmazonIPO(5/15/1997).HistoricalmarketcapsforViacom/NetflixshownasofdateofCBSspinofffromViacom(1/3/2006).

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Why Invest in Disruptors?

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Successful Ongoing Disruptors

Amazon Introduced onlineshoppingforbooksresultingthebirthofonlineshopping

Illumina Caught firmslikeAffymetrixbysurprisewiththeirlowcostgenemappingtechnology

Year ActiveAccounts Revenue PerAcct.1997 1.5million $1802017 310million $439

CosttoSequenceHumanGenome #ofGenomes Sequenced

2006 $300,000 2014 65,0002017 $1,000 2016 500,000

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Concentrated Small Cap

Disruption in the Lending Market

10 Largest Mortgage Originators

1996WellsFargoCountrywideFleetMortgageChaseManhattanBAMortgageResourceBancsharesMortgageStandard FederalGroupNorthAmericanMortgageFlagstarBankFTMortgage

Highlightingindicatesnon-traditionallenders.Source:WellsFargoSecurities,LLC

2017WellsFargoChaseManhattanQuickenLoansPennyPacUSBankCaliber FundingAmerihomeMortgageUnited ShoreFinancialServicesSunTrustMortgageFlagstar Bank

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The LendingTree Model

AccesstoMultipleOffers

Cost-EfficientCustomerAcquisition

RetailBanks

AutoLenders

HighlyTargeted,PredictableVolume

Clicks,CallsandDataReferrals

Real-TimeReporting&Analytics

FreeCreditScores

Tools&Resources

Ratings&Reviews

Mortgage

P2PLenders

ATrueOnlineMarketplaceEnablingConsumersandLenderstoShopforEachOther

SmallBusinessLenders

StudentLoans

CreditCards

Borrow

ers Lenders

IllustrationSource:LendingTree

Leadgenerationsubstitutesforthe“Trusted”Lender– MultipleOffers=MoreTrusted

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Massive Market Opportunity

~$2.0bn(1)

CoreTargetMarket

~18%MarketShare(4)

~$10.4bn(2)

USFinancialServicesOnlineAdvertising

~3.5%Penetration(4)

~$19bn(3)

USBank&CreditUnionMarketingSpending

~1.9%Penetration(4)

Core

TotalAddressableMarket

AdjacentOpportunities

Sources:1)MortgageBrokersAssociation,WallStreetresearch,WallStreetJournal,DepartmentofEducation,FederalReserve,ScotsmanGuide,RealtyTrac,

Booz&Co.,companyfilings,internalestimates.2)eMarketer,May2015,includesadvertisingthatappearsondesktopandlaptopcomputersaswellasmobilephonesandtablets;inclusiveof$2.0bn

coretargetmarketasperinternalestimates.3)TheFinancialBrandandAiteGroup,"2015StateofBank&CreditUnionMarketing"ascitedinAiteGroupblogpost,Jan28,2015.4)MarketshareandpenetrationpercentagesarebasedonLTMrevenue(asofSeptember30,2016)of$361.9mm.

IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation

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Source:InternetTrends- 2016,KPCB

PopularityofBusinessContactChannelsbyGeneration

Dealing with Changing Consumer Preferences

IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation

(

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Source:LendingTree

LendingTree Market Expansion

IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation

Pre-2007Post-2007

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TotalMarketSize

Est.OnlineAdMarket

FragmentedSuppliers/Buyers

HighValuePurchase

Frequency

MobileAdoption

InventoryDifferentiation

KeyOnlinePlayers

MarketCap(4)

Expedia/Priceline Paved the Way for Vertical Disruption

13

Substantialvalueupsiderelativetosimilarmarkets

3

Significantloanoriginationvolume

todriveTAMexpansion

1

Meaningfulopportunityforincreaseddigitalpenetration

2

Travel Lending

$1.3tr(1) $2.4tr(2)

$13bn(1) $10bn(3)

C EB EE DD CC C

$102.9bn(5) $1.9bn(6)

1

2

3$97.6bn(5) $2.2bn(6)

$1.3tr(1)

$13bn(1) $10bn(3)

$2.4tr(2)

Source:LendingTree

B

IllustrationSource:LendingTreepresentation

Source:CapitalIQandWallStreetResearch.1)WallStreetResearch.2)BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,DepartmentofEducation,FederalReserveBankofNewYork,MortgageBrokers Association,ScotsmanGuide,WallStreetJournal,internaldata.3)eMarketer,U.S.FinancialServicesIndustryDigitalAdSpending,2014-2020,March2016.Inclusiveofinternalestimateof~$2.0bnforonlineleadgeneration.4)CapitalIQ.5)CombinationofPricelinemarketcap:$73.4bn,Expediamarketcap:$17.1bnandTripAdvisormarketcap:$7.1bn.Marketcapasof January 4,2017.6)CombinationofLendingTreemarketcap:$1.2bnandBankratemarketcap:$1.0bn.MarketcapasofJanuary4,2017. 14

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Current Market

U.S.VC-backedIPOsbyYear

Source:NVCA 2017Yearbook,DataProvidedbyPitchBook

CapitalInvested($B)

#ofDealsClosed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CapitalInvested($B)

#ofDealsClosed

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Current Market: West Coast Focused55% of Capital Invested was in West Coast States

Source:NVCA2018Yearbook,DataProvidedbyPitchBook

2017VCDeals&CompanyCountsbyState

CompanyCount %ofTotal

CapitalInvested($1M) %ofTotal

California 2,749 34.23% 43,360.69 51.03%

NewYork 925 11.52% 12,265.25 14.43%

Massachusetts 555 6.91% 8,972.81 10.56%

Texas 396 4.93% 1,811.04 2.13%

Florida 226 2.81% 1,515.31 1.78%

Washington 314 3.91% 1,762.18 2.07%

Illinois 218 2.71% 1,948.13 2.29%

Utah 106 1.32% 1,050.24 1.24%

Pennsylvania 230 2.86% 901.80 1.06%

Colorado 276 3.44% 1,220.47 1.44%

AllOthers 2,036 25.35% 10,166.62 11.96%

Totals 8,031 84,974.54

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SecularRevenueGrowth

DisciplinedSecuritySelection

ConcentratedPositions

Concentrated Small Cap

Emerging Opportunity Philosophy

Alpha

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Concentrated Small Cap

The Three “M’s”

Rapidly growing companies can suffer from three “M”s

Mysterious Mistakes Management

Newercompaniesandindustriescanbehardtounderstandandmaybeignoredearlyon

Rapidlygrowing,innovativecompaniescanmakeshort-term missteps

Earlystagecompanieswithfounder-CEOsmayhavedifficultymanagingthroughtheirgrowthphase

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Process seeks to identify:Anchor Points

Focusedgrowthplans,ideallyarticulatedbytopmanagement

Quantifiablegoalandideallymultiplesofpresentsize

Attainablewithin3-5yearinvestmenthorizon

Abilitytocaptureintermediatesuccess

Achievablewithpresentcorporateresources1

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

1 Jim Collins, From Good to Great, Why Some Companies Make the Leap and Others Don’t, Harper Collins Publishers Inc., 2001.

Anchor Points Can Provide Conviction

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Sample Anchor Points

Based on OCM’s research. Holdings are subject to change and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LendingTreeconnectsconsumerswithmultiplelenders.Itexpectstoreach$3billioninsalesin5yearsasthefirmgrowsfrom6%to20%ofthe$15billionspentadvertingonlinebyfinancialinstitutions.

U.S.opportunityis3millionAFib cardiacmonitoringpatchesperyear.Estimatedtorampfrom270,000in2017to1.2millionat$400perpatch.

Globalopportunitytodeliverover1millionportableoxygenunitsperyearby2025generating$1.1billioninrevenue.

Enovausesanonlinestrategytomakeloanstomiddleclassborrowers.Its$3billionloanoriginationgoalistogenerate$500millionofEBITDAinfiveyears.

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• FinTech (E-Commerce for loans, banking, investments)

• Health Care:– Medical Devices – Selling to consumers and bypassing traditional gatekeepers

– Biotech – Gene therapy, targeted therapy, M&A

– Services – Value based care

• Consumer Internet Services

• Technology:– AI

– Data Lakes

– Software Security

– Cloud Infrastructure

Concentrated Small Cap

Future Areas to Watch

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Disclosures

TheEmergingOpportunityFundisavailablebyprospectusonly.TheFund’sinvestmentobjectives,risks,chargesandexpensesmustbeconsideredcarefullybeforeinvesting.ThesummaryandstatutoryprospectusescontainthisandotherimportantinformationabouttheFund,anditmaybeobtainedbycallingtoll-free(800)700-3316,orvisitingwww.osterweis.com.PleasereadtheprospectuscarefullybeforeinvestingtoensuretheFundisappropriateforyourgoalsandrisktolerance.

Earningsgrowthisnotameasureofthefund'sfutureperformance.Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.

Diversificationdoesnotassureaprofit,nordoesitprotectagainstalossinadecliningmarket.

TheRussell3000IndexisamarketcapitalizationweightedequityindexmaintainedbyFTSERussellthatseekstobeabenchmarkoftheentireU.S.stockmarket.

TheRussell2000Indexisanindexmeasuringtheperformanceofthe2,000smallestcompaniesintheRussell3000Index.

TheOsterweisEmergingOpportunityFundmayinvestinunseasonedcompanies,whichinvolveadditionalriskssuchasabruptorerraticpricemovements.TheFundmayinvestinsmallandmid-sizedcompanies,whichmayinvolvegreatervolatilitythanlarge-sizedcompanies.TheFundmayinvestinIPOsandunseasonedcompaniesthatareintheearlystagesoftheirdevelopmentandmayposemoreriskcomparedtomoreestablishedcompanies.TheFundmayinvestinETFs,whichinvolverisksthatdonotapplytoconventionalfunds.Higherturnoverratesmayresultinincreasedtransactioncosts,whichcouldimpactperformance.Fromtimetotime,theFundmay haveconcentratedpositionsinoneormoresectorssubjectingtheFundtosectoremphasisriskincludingthehealthcaresector,whichmaybeaffectedbygovernmentregulation,restrictions,pricingandothermarketdevelopmentsandthetechnologysector,whichtends to bemorevolatilethantheoverallmarket.TheFundmayinvestinforeignandemergingmarketsecurities,whichinvolvegreatervolatilityandpolitical,economicandcurrencyrisksanddifferencesinaccountingmethods.Theserisksmayincreaseforemergingmarkets.

OsterweisCapitalManagementistheadvisertotheOsterweisFunds,whicharedistributedbyQuasarDistributors, LLC.[33040]

ForRegisteredprofessionaluseonly:Notfordistributiontothepublic.

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Asof3/31/2018,theFund’stoptenholdingsasapercentageoftotalassetswere:

Fundholdingsandsectorallocationsaresubjecttochangeandarenotrecommendationstobuyorsellanysecurity.Currentandfutureholdingsaresubjecttorisk.FurtherinformationabouttheFund’sportfolioallocationasofthelastdayofthemost recentcalendarquarterisavailablebyvisitingwww.osterweis.com.

Disclosures

Holding %ofTotalPortfolioBio-Techne Corp. 4.5LigandPharmaceuticals 4.0PlanetFitnessInc.- ClassA 3.6Nutanix Inc.- ClassA 3.5GTT CommunicationsInc. 3.4ZillowGroupInc.- ClassA 3.3InogenInc. 3.1Rapid7Inc. 3.1EtsyInc. 3.0PetIQ Inc. 2.9