ORI GIN AL PA PER

Dispersion modeling of volcanic ash clouds: North Pacificeruptions, the past 40 years: 1970–2010

P. W. Webley • K. Dean • R. Peterson • A. Steffke •

M. Harrild • J. Groves

Received: 6 September 2011 / Accepted: 15 November 2011 / Published online: 30 November 2011� Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Abstract Over the last 40 years, there have been numerous volcanic eruptions across the

North Pacific (NOPAC) region that posed a potential threat to both local communities and

transcontinental aircraft. The ability to detect these volcanic clouds using satellite remote

sensing and predict their movement by dispersion modeling is a major component of

hazard mitigation. The Puff volcanic ash transport and dispersion model, used by the

Alaska Volcano Observatory, was used to illustrate the impact that these volcanic ash

clouds have made across the NOPAC and entire Polar region over the past 40 years.

Nearly, 400 separate ash clouds were analyzed that were either reported or detected to have

reached above 6 km (20,000 ft) above sea level, an average of one ash cloud every 1.25

months. Particular events showed that ash clouds can be tracked from Alaska to Greenland

(Crater Peak, Mount Spurr in 1992), from Kamchatka to Alaska (Kluvicheskoi Volcano in

1994), from Alaska to California (Mount Cleveland Volcano in 2001) and from multiple

events within 1 day (Mount Augustine Volcano in 2006). This study showed the vast

number of events that have impacted this Polar region and how tracking them is useful for

hazard mitigation.

Keywords Polar regions � Volcanic ash � Dispersion modeling

P. W. Webley (&) � K. Dean � J. GrovesAlaska Volcano Observatory, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks,903 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USAe-mail: pwebley@gi.alaska.edu

R. PetersonDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Duckering Building,Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA

A. SteffkeHawai’i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawai’i at Manoa,1680 East–West Road, POST 602, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA

M. HarrildDepartment of Geography, Environment and Disaster Management, Faculty of Business, Environmentand Society, University of Coventry, George Eliot Building, Priory Street, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK

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Nat Hazards (2012) 61:661–671DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0053-9

1 Introduction

The North Pacific region has the largest number of volcanoes at high latitudes. Volcanic

plumes and clouds emitted by these volcanoes result in hazardous conditions and impact

air quality in the Arctic, Eastern Russia and North America. There are over 100 historically

active volcanoes in the region including those on the Aleutian Islands, Alaska Peninsula,

Alaska mainland, and the Kamchatka Peninsula and Kurile Islands, Russia (Nye et al.

1998). The region is remote, vast (5,000 by 2,500 km) and sparsely populated. These

volcanoes pose a serious threat to the local communities and to transcontinental air traffic

throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. There were 20,000 passengers per day and

more than $12 million pounds of cargo transported through this region in 1999 (Dean et al.

2002). These volcanoes erupt several times per year, ejecting ash to a range of altitudes and

jeopardizing aircraft safety. Volcanic ash can damage jet engines by causing excessive

abrasion and even complete in-flight failure (Przedpelski and Casadevall 1991). The

Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) operationally monitors these volcanoes as a joint

program of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Geophysical Institute of the

University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF-GI) and the State of Alaska Division of Geological

and Geophysical Surveys (ADGGS).

Across the NOPAC and entire Polar region, there are many groups monitoring volca-

noes for signs of volcanic activity and the associated ash plumes and clouds that may

occur, Fig. 1. These groups include AVO, Kamchatkan and Sakhalin Volcanic Emergency

Response Teams (KVERT and SVERT) in Russia and the Cascades Volcano Observatory

(CVO) in Northwest USA. In addition, groups such as National Weather Service (NWS)

and Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) in the USA are in contact during a crisis and are

responsible for releasing volcanic ash advisories and volcanic ash graphics, Significant

Meteorological Information advisories, Notice to Air Men and other warnings of the

presence of ash clouds due and their potential effect on aircraft and local communities.

There are numerous volcanoes within the region and a large amount of air traffic. Any

eruption that produces a volcanic ash cloud has the potential to impact these aircraft routes.

Fig. 1 North Pacific volcanic region monitored by AVO using satellite data. The black triangles locate thevolcanoes, and the white lines represent some of the major aircraft routes across the region (from Dean et al.2011)

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Volcanic eruptions emit steam, ash and other gases into the atmosphere. Volcanic ash is

one of the major hazards associated with explosive eruptions, leading to dispersing ash

clouds and particulate fallout. To aid mitigation of the hazards from airborne volcanic ash,

dispersion models have been developed to predict the movement and structure of volcanic

clouds. The location of ash clouds in the NOPAC region can be determined using remote

sensing data from platforms and instruments such as the Geostationary Earth Observation

System, the Moderate Resolution Infrared Spectroradiometer on National Aeronautics and

Space Administration (NASA) Aqua and Terra satellites, the Advanced Very High Res-

olution Radiometer (AVHRR) on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA) satellites and the Multi-functional Transport Satellite operated by the Japanese

Meteorological Agency (JMA). Volcanic ash detection and monitoring uses the reverse

absorption method, described by Prata (1989a, b), which utilizes brightness temperature

differences (BTD) in spectral signatures between thermal bands allowing both nighttime

and daytime detection. Dry fine, volcanic ash will produce a negative BTD signal. Bailey

et al. (2010) and Webley et al. (2011) provide examples of how the satellite data across the

NOPAC have been used during the volcanic events at Augustine and Redoubt Volcanoes in

2006 and 2009, respectively.

Due to the non-continuous nature of satellite coverage (through NASA, NOAA and

JMA) and detection limitations, dispersion models are relied upon to provide additional

information of the ash cloud location and trajectory. Therefore, dispersion models play a

pivotal role in locating and forecasting the movement of all volcanic ash clouds. In

addition, they can complement any remote sensing data and visual observations from the

ground and aircraft. Dispersion models can provide detailed information such as vertical

dimensions of the ash cloud, spatial extent of ash particles of different sizes, future tra-

jectories and even distribution of different chemical species (Peterson et al. 2011).

There are many different dispersion models used around the world for predicting the

movement of volcanic ash clouds. Peterson et al. (2011) provides a detailed description of

volcanic ash dispersion models used in the North Pacific. In the NOPAC region, three

dispersion models are primarily used operationally: Modele Lagrangien de Dispersion de

Particules d’ordre 0 (MLDP0) (D’Amours et al. 2010), Hybrid Single Particle Integrated

Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model (Draxler and Rolph 2011) and the Puff model (Searcy et al.

1998; Webley et al. 2010). Puff is used as an operational tool for volcanic ash cloud tracking

by AVO, Air Force Weather Agency, NWS and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers

(VAAC) in Anchorage and Washington D.C. HYSPLIT is used as a volcanic ash tracking

tool by FAA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS and Washington

VAAC. MLDP0 is used by the Canadian Meteorological Centre and Montreal VAAC.

Puff was initially conceived and developed by Prof. H. Tanaka, University of Tsukuba,

Japan, as a method for simulating ash cloud trajectories during the eruption of Mt. Redoubt

in 1989 (Tanaka 1994). The Puff model was redesigned to predict the extent and move-

ment of airborne ash particles in an operational mode accurately and quickly (Searcy et al.

1998). Model simulations place hypothetical particle size distributions above a selected

volcano and use a gridded numerical weather prediction wind field as for Puff’s advection

term. Forecast wind fields are used for real-time, operational predictions and reanalysis

wind fields, for post-event analysis to predict particle transport. The initial Puff model

wind field is often provided by a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The initial

distribution of the ash particles in the eruption column is linearly distributed throughout the

vertical extent in the results discussed here, although other distributions are possible (see

Peterson et al. 2011). The particles are tracked as they move through time by advection,

Lagrangian diffusion and Stoke’s law of settling (Papp et al. 2005).

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Puff is primarily designed for forecasting volcanic ash dispersion. For operational use,

global, regional and local NWP models are used with Puff, providing predictions within

minutes of the start of a volcanic eruption. For this study of 40 years of explosive erup-

tions, reanalysis NWP data are used as input wind fields for the Puff model. This data are

the most useful for post-eruption analysis as it incorporates marine and land surface

measurements, radiosonde/rawinsonde data, upper air observations and aircraft data to

provide more highly accurate meteorological conditions. Here, predictions of volcanic

eruption clouds are shown that have been recorded above 6 km (approx. 20,000 ft) above

sea level (asl) from 1970 to 2010 to illustrate their effect across Eastern Asia, North Pacific

Ocean, North America and the Polar regions.

2 Time series analysis: 1970 to present

Within the NOPAC region, there are three primary sources of information for ongoing and

past eruptive activity. These include SVERT and KVERT in the Kurile and Kamchatka

regions of Northeastern Russia and the AVO for the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska.

Additional sources of information include CVO for the Northwestern US, the Volcano

Server at the Smithsonian Institute and peer-reviewed journal articles. A very large number

of volcanic eruptions of varying magnitudes (categorized by Volcanic Explosivity Index,

Newhall and Self 1982) have occurred within the NOPAC region. Therefore, the number of

events has been restricted to analyzing only those where the ash cloud was reported greater

than 6 km or 20,000 ft asl. The many low-magnitude eruptions that often do not pose a

threat to population centers or high-altitude jet aircraft are not discussed here. There have

been 162 volcanic eruption periods between 1970 and 2010, but some events, e.g., Mount

Augustine 2006, have multiple events within one eruption as shown in Table 1. On

average, the number of eruptions correlated with nearly 4 per year or one eruption every

3 months. Table 1 showed that at times there were several events per month or two

volcanoes erupting simultaneously (e.g., Bezymianny and Ukinrek Maars in 1977). Ana-

lyzing these eruption periods, nearly 400 separate ash clouds have reached over 6 km or

20,000 ft asl in the past 40 years. Each of these ash clouds was reported upon by local

observers, detected in satellite remote sensing data sets or from other geophysical tech-

niques (such as weather radar and webcams) (Table 2).

Within the NOPAC region, wind directions are generally from west to east, and as a

result, the volcanoes within Kamchatka and the Kurile Islands can have a significant

impact across Alaska and the rest of North America. Two different image display options

are available from the Puff model runs, Figs. 2 and 3, showing particles color coded by

height and by relative particle concentrations, respectively. Every modeled ash cloud has a

different structure, shape, dispersion and travel distance depending upon the physical

processes at the source volcano, altitude of the cloud and wind fields at the time of the

eruption. Figures 2 and 3 show selected events from Table 1: at Crater Peak, Mount Spurr

Volcano in September 1992, Kliuchevskoi Volcano in October 1994, Mount Cleveland

Volcano in February 2001, Mount Augustine Volcano in January 2006 and Kasatochi

Volcano in August 2008. These model predictions have been verified by satellite obser-

vations of volcanic ash (examples can be found in Schneider et al. 1995; Dean et al. 2011;

Simpson et al. 2002; Dean et al. 2004; Sassen et al. 2007 and Schneider et al. 2008).

Figures 2a and 3a for Crater Peak, Mt. Spurr in September 1992 showed the large

spatial extent of the region affected by one single ash cloud, which was detected by

satellite sensors when coverage coincided, 7,000 km away from the volcano over

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Greenland (see Fig. 4 in Schneider et al. 1995 for AVHRR remote sensing imagery). This

was the furthest a NOPAC ash cloud had been tracked on satellite data. Figures 2b and 3b

for Kliuchevskoi in October 1994 showed clouds that extended from the Kamchatka

Peninsula across the NOPAC region reaching as far away as Alaska and Canada, although

the relative concentrations were low at 8–10 km asl. Figures 2 and 3 also illustrated the

widespread dispersion and complex paths the ash had taken as it moved across the Pacific

to Alaska and Canada over the 40 h after the start of the event.

Figures 2c and 3c for Mt. Cleveland in February 2001 showed a weaker cloud moving

in multiple directions from its source and impacting the west coast of North America, north

coast of Siberia and central Alaska 72 h after the start of the event. Simpson et al. (2002)

and Dean et al. (2004) described an aircraft ash encounter (ash in the cabin and sulfur

smell) at the west coast of North America that coincided in space and time to the Puff

model run. Even though this encounter was not considered dangerous, it was one of the few

non-satellite validation points confirming the Puff model accuracy.

Figures 2d and 3d for Mt. Augustine on January 13, 2006 showed three successive events

over a 7 h period that moved east across the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually, these clouds

coalesced and drifted over the west coast of North America and were detected in California

but in very low concentrations. This was the first case of this nature (multiple ash clouds

detected and tracked simultaneously) in the 40-year time series. Figures 2d and 3d showed

how the 3 events started to ‘‘merge’’ giving a large combined and dispersed ash cloud. Later

eruptions from Mt. Augustine Volcano on January 28, 2006 –February 2, 2006 drifted north

over Fairbanks and even Barrow (on the northern coast of Alaska), Sassen et al. (2007) and

Webley et al. (2008). These events were detected by light detection and ranging and ground

samplers again validating model predictions. Figures 2e and 3e for the 2008 events at

Table 1 Eruptive events from 1970 to 1990 for NOPAC region

Event Volcano Date Event Volcano Date Event Volcano Date

1 Karymsky May-1970 19 St Helens Jul-1980 37 Augustine Mar-1986

2 Alaid Jun-1972 20 St Helens Aug-1980 38 Pavlof Apr-1986

3 Pavlof Nov-1973 21 Gareloi Aug-1980 39 Chikurachki Nov-1986

4 Kliuchevskoi Apr-1974 22 St Helens Oct-1980 40 Bezymianny Dec-1986

5 Pavlof Sep-1974 23 Pavlof Nov-1980 41 Kliuchevskoi Feb-1987

6 Tolbachik Jul-1975 24 Alaid Apr-1981 42 Cleveland Aug-1987

7 Cleveland Sep-1975 25 Bezymianny Jun-1981 43 Redoubt Dec-1989

8 Augustine Jan-1976 26 Pavlof Sep-1981 44 Redoubt Jan-1990

9 Augustine Feb-1976 27 Shishaldin Sep-1981 45 Kliuchevskoi Jan-1990

10 Bezymianny Mar-1977 28 Gareloi Jan-1982 46 Kliuchevskoi Feb-1990

11 Ukinrek Maars Mar-1977 29 St Helens Mar-1982 47 Redoubt Feb-1990

12 Westdahl Feb-1978 30 St Helens Apr-1982 48 Redoubt Mar-1990

13 Westdahl Feb-1979 31 Bezymianny Jun-1982 49 Bezymianny Mar-1990

14 Bezymianny Feb-1979 32 Bezymianny May-1983 50 Redoubt Apr-1990

15 Bezymianny Sep-1979 33 Veniaminof Jun-1983 51 St Helens Nov-1990

16 Bezymianny Apr-1980 34 Kliuchevskoi Nov-1984 52 St Helens Dec-1990

17 St Helens May-1980 35 Bezymianny Jun-1985

18 St Helens Jun-1980 36 Kliuchevskoi Dec-1985

Multiple events associated with some eruptions are cataloged as a single listing

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Kasatochi Volcano showed how the ash clouds dispersed across into the Northeastern

Pacific Ocean, causing oceanic blooms (Hamme et al. 2010) as well as significant issues for

the aviation community (Guffanti et al. 2010). The ash and sulfur dioxide clouds were

tracked for many thousands of kilometers (Corradini et al. 2010) and caused the closure of

the aircraft routes from contiguous US to Alaska (Guffanti et al. 2010).

Table 2 Eruptive events from 1991 to 2010 for NOPAC region

Event Volcano Date Event Volcano Date Event Volcano Date

53 Avachinsky Jan-1991 90 Kliuchevskoi Jun-1999 127 Cleveland May-2006

54 Shiveluch Apr-1991 91 Kliuchevskoi Jan-2000 128 Karymsky Aug-2006

55 Westdahl Nov-1991 92 Shiveluch Mar-2000 129 Cleveland Oct-2006

56 Spurr Jun-1992 93 Bezymianny Mar-2000 130 Karymsky Dec-2006

57 Bogoslof Jul-1992 94 Shiveluch Jun-2000 131 Shiveluch Dec-2006

58 Spurr Aug-1992 95 Shiveluch Jul-2000 132 Bezymianny Dec-2006

59 Spurr Sep-1992 96 Kliuchevskoi Jul-2000 133 Kliuchevskoi Dec-2006

60 Shiveluch Apr-1993 97 Shiveluch Aug-2000 134 Shiveluch Mar-2007

61 Kliuchevskoi Jul-1993 98 Bezymianny Nov-2000 135 Kliuchevskoi May/June 2007

62 Kliuchevskoi Aug-1993 99 Cleveland Feb-2001 136 Pavlof Aug-2007

63 Bezymianny Oct-1993 100 Cleveland Mar-2001 137 Bezymianny Oct-2007

64 Kanaga Feb-1994 101 Shiveluch May-2001 138 Shiveluch Dec-2007

65 Cleveland May-1994 102 Shiveluch Jun-2001 139 Cleveland Feb-2008

66 Kanaga Aug-1994 103 Shiveluch Jul-2001 140 Okmok Jul-2008

67 Kliuchevskoi Sep-1994 104 Bezymianny Aug-2001 141 Cleveland Jul-2008

68 Kliuchevskoi Oct-1994 105 Bezymianny Dec-2001 142 Karymsky Jul-2008

69 Kliuchevskoi Jan-1995 106 Shiveluch Feb-2002 143 Kasatochi Aug-2008

70 Bezymianny Oct-1995 107 Shiveluch Mar-2002 144 Bezymianny Aug-2008

71 Shishaldin Dec-1995 108 Kliuchevskoi Dec-2002 145 Shiveluch Sep-2008

72 Karymsky Jan-1996 109 Bezymianny Jul-2003 146 Kliuchevskoi Nov-Dec 2008

73 Alaid Dec-1996 110 Bezymianny Jan-2004 147 Shiveluch Dec-08

74 Pavlof Dec-1996 111 Karymsky Feb-2004 148 Cleveland Jan-2009

75 Kliuchevskoi Jan-1997 112 Karymsky May-2004 149 Redoubt Mar/Apr 09

76 Kliuchevskoi Mar-1997 113 Shiveluch May-2004 150 Shiveluch Mar/Apr 09

77 Okmok Mar-1997 114 Bezymianny Jun-2004 151 Kliuchevskoi Mar-2009

78 Karymsky Apr-1997 115 Karymsky Jul-2004 152 Shiveluch Jun-2009

79 Karymsky Apr-1997 116 Shiveluch Sep-2004 153 Sarychev Jun-2009

80 Bezymianny May-1997 117 Bezymianny Jan-2005 154 Shiveluch Oct-2009

81 Bezymianny Dec-1997 118 Shiveluch Feb-2005 155 Cleveland Oct-2009

82 Korovin Jun-1998 119 Kliuchevskoi Mar-2005 156 Bezymianny Dec-2009

83 Kliuchevskoi Sep-1998 120 St Helens Mar-2005 157 Kliuchevskoi Mar-2010

84 Karymsky Nov-1998 121 Bezymianny Nov-2005 158 Bezymianny May-2010

85 Karymsky Feb-1999 122 Augustine Jan-2006 159 Kliuchevskoi Aug-2010

86 Bezymianny Feb-1999 123 Cleveland Feb-2006 160 Kliuchevskoi Sept–Nov 2010

87 Shishaldin Apr-1999 124 Cleveland Mar-2006 161 Shiveluch Oct-2010

88 Shishaldin May-1999 125 Bezymianny May-2006 162 Kizimen Dec-2010

89 Bezymianny May-1999 126 Karymsky May-2006

Multiple events associated with some eruptions are cataloged as a single listing. Event number continued from Table 1

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Figure 4 shows a composite of all of the predicted ash clouds using Puff for the period

1970–2010. Here, the predicted location of all 383 clouds from 162 events (Table 1) at

12 h after each eruption began is highlighted. This illustrated 4 regions of activity:

Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, Cook Inlet and the Cascades. The predictions showed vol-

canic clouds extending in every direction although many of the volcanic clouds extend

further to the east compared to other directions. Papp et al. (2005) has shown there was a

seasonal component to these variations. Cook Inlet and the Aleutian regions appeared to

have the strongest east-flowing influence. Volcanic clouds from Cook Inlet and Kamchatka

were more likely to flow into Northern Polar regions. The Cascade predictions were

dominated by the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens Volcano. An animation of the full

40-year time series of all the eruptive events can be found at http://puff.images.alaska.edu/

40yrseries.shtml, including subsets per decade. These were updated with each new major

eruptive event over 6 km asl. Comparison of the Puff time series composite to those from

satellite data showed similar patterns overall, but the limitations of satellite data coverage

and detection do not show a complete picture of the regions impacted. Both Figs. 2 and 4b

showed relative ash concentrations, and a more detailed analysis of each specific event is

necessary for a quantitative measure of the specific hazard each may pose.

Fig. 2 Airborne volcanic ash color coded by height for a September 1992 eruption at Crater Peak, MountSpurr Volcano, b October 1994 eruption at Kliuchevskoi Volcano, c February 2001 eruption at MountCleveland Volcano, d the multiple events in January 2006 at Mount Augustine Volcano and e August 2008eruption at Kasatochi Volcano. Orange triangles show the location of each source volcano

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3 Discussions and conclusions

This study of the past 40 years of NOPAC volcanic eruptions has illustrated the vast

number of events that have impacted the high latitudes of Eastern Russia and North

America, due to the circulation of volcanic ash clouds and the potential effect these events

have beyond that region. Figures 2, 3, 4 showed the extent that volcanic ash clouds from

the NOPAC region can travel and the potential impact that they could have on aircraft and

population centers. Within the past 40 years, there have been a large number of eruptive

events at altitudes greater than 6 km or 20,000 ft asl. The Crater Peak vent, Mount Spurr

Volcano, event in 1992 and Kasatochi Volcano’s events in 2008 showed that the ash cloud

can be accurately modeled to distances up to 7,000 km, as verified by satellite imagery.

Volcanic clouds are a major hazard to aviation and ashfall is potentially hazardous to

pollution centers. Predictions may also aid other environmental research such as oceano-

graphic impacts (Frogner et al. 2001), land-based studies (Neild et al. 1998), and the

impact volcanic eruptions can have on the Earth’s atmosphere and environment (Robock

and Oppenheimer 2003). Within this Polar region, volcanic ash clouds can be detected by

ground, airborne or satellite instruments. Each of these techniques has limiting factors, and

Fig. 3 Airborne volcanic ash color coded by concentration for a September 1992 eruption at Crater Peak,Mount Spurr Volcano, b October 1994 eruption at Kliuchevskoi Volcano, c February 2001 eruption atMount Cleveland Volcano, d the multiple events in January 2006 at Mount Augustine Volcano and e August2008 eruption at Kasatochi Volcano. Orange triangles show the location of each source volcano

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often new volcanic events are not comprehensively detected due to logistical constraints.

The use of dispersion models, such as Puff, allows policy makers and operational agencies

to predict the movement of the ash clouds.

Acknowledgments We thank Jonathan Dehn (UAF) and the AVO remote sensing group for their analysisand comments on the Puff time series analysis. This work was supported by the Arctic Region Super-computer Center, the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska and the U.S. Geological Survey as part ofthe Volcano Hazards Program, through the Alaska Volcano Observatory, a collaborative effort of the USGS,University of Alaska Fairbanks, and the Alaska Geological and Geophysical Surveys.

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Fig. 4 Time series composite of predicted volcanic ash clouds from 1970 to 2010. Volcanic clouds areshown 12 h after the start of each event: a ash color coded by altitude and b relative airborne ashconcentration

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