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Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755. Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS. Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014. Flight Operations Risk Assessment System. Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D.MITRE / CAASD
April 2014
Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS
Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755
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Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
Technology for
ProactivePer flightPre-flight
Risk assessment
Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool
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A Little History
Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997
US Naval Research Laboratory
EVA Airways
MITRE Corporation
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Publication
SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS
AeroSafety WorldNovember 2013
DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL
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Benefits
Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment
Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index
Full explanation and breakdown of risk components
Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation
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Levels of Use
• Corporate Management
• Dispatch, Crew
• Safety Department
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How does it look?
Dispatcher Reviews &
Notifies Central Server
calculates Risk Index
SupportingOperations Databases
Safety Manager
ALERT!
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Input
Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories:
– Crew Factors
– Sector (City-pair) Factors
– Aircraft Factors
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Input
Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories:
– Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System
– Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases
– Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases
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Output
Risk Index– Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0– Relative score– Compare to baseline (average)
Critical Parameter identification– Identify actionable over-limit parameters
10.0
1.0
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Operational Example
EVA AirwaysTaipei, Taiwan
100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival3 flights/day get 2nd level review
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FORAS Interface (EVA example)
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Example: Single fleet, single route trend
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Example: Single fleet comparison
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What are the critical parameters?
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Critical Parameters – City pair
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Critical Parameter – One fleet
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Method
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Knowledge-based System
Experts Performance Data
Studies and Statistics
ForensicEvent Analyses
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk City-Pair Risk Aircraft Risk
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication Experience Stressors
City-Pair Risk
Length Airport En-route
Aircraft Risk
MEL Suitability
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
… …
Experience
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Stressors
… …
City-Pair Risk
Length
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Airport
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En-route
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Aircraft Risk
MEL
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Suitability
… …
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
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Experience
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Stressors
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City-Pair Risk
Length
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Airport
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En-route
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Aircraft Risk
MEL
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Suitability
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
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Experience
… …
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Stressors
… …
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City-Pair Risk
Length
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Airport
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En-route
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Aircraft Risk
MEL
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Suitability
…
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…
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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
… …
.
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.
.
Experience
… …
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.
Stressors
… …
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City-Pair Risk
Length
… …
Airport
… …
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En-route
… …
Aircraft Risk
MEL
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Suitability
…
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Computation Flows Upwards
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Example Risk Factors (ALAR)
Conditions which lead to increased risk Examples (crew, sector, aircraft):
– Inter-crew communication– Crew experience– Experience at airport– Transient fatigue– Cumulative fatigue– Approach and Landing related MEL items– Sector length– ATC skill– Complex approach– Airport congestion– Visual Conditions
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FORAS Foundation
Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management Managed by a committee of trustees
Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models Progressively priced based on fleet size Available installation and training Stand-alone or cloud-based installation Generic or customized risk models
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FORAS Requirements
Crew Roster and Tracking Flight Information System, MEL data NOTAM access Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.
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FORAS Foundation Further Information
Contact Flight Safety Foundation
Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation
Danny Ho, EVA Air
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Summary
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Model Benefits
Centralize safety knowledge
Connect human factors and risk.
Works with operations data, not FOQA
“Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors.
Customizable to each carrier’s operations.
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Program Benefits
Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level.
Pre-flight risk assessment leads to
AwarenessCommunicationDecision AidMitigation
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Thank you
Further information
Flight Safety FoundationDanny Ho, EVA AirwaysMike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation