Disease Forecasting a role on agriculture economics.

Plant Disease Forecasting; an overviewBy Muhammad Ehetisham-ul-HaqInstructor Plant Protection, In-Service Agricultural Training Institute, Sargodha

What is a disease ?Disease BioticAbiotic

What is a Pathogen ?PATHOGENMonocyclic Polycyclic Polyetic

Why we study Plant diseasesPlant are the producers having soul importance in food web.Diseases, Insects and weeds cause 31-42% losses in crops.(lower in developed countries and higher in developing countries)Average estimated losses attributed by diseases, insects and weeds are 36.5%

Post harvest losses (6-12%)Losses by diseases which are due to environmental factors such as freezes, droughts, air pollutants, nutrient deficiencies, and toxicities are excluded.

Plant PathologyBranch of science which concerns with symptomology, etiology, epidemiology and management strategies of plant diseases.

Plant Disease Epidemiology.Epidemiology = Study of factors effecting plant disease epidemics.Epidemic = Change in disease in a population over time and space.

MODELMENTALTANGIBLEPHYSICALABSTRACTQUALITATIVEQUANTITATIVEMATHEMATICALSTATISTICAL(Edminster, 1978)

Plant disease epidemic ModelingBetter understanding how a disease is progressing.Comparing the plant disease epidemics.Easy way of understanding and analyzing and estimating disease losses.

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF EPIDEMICSIn a computer simulation of an epidemic, the computer is given data describing the various subcomponents of the epidemic and control practices at specific points in time (such as at weekly intervals). The computer then provides continuous information regarding not only the spread and severity of the disease over time, but also the final crop and economic losses likely to be caused by the disease under the conditions of the epidemic as given to the computer.

EPIDEM was designed to simulate epidemics of early blight of tomato and potato caused by the fungus Alternaria solaniCercospora blight of celery (CERCOS)For Mycosphaerella blight of chrysanthemums (MYCOS), For southern corn leaf blight caused by Cochliobolus (Helminthosporium) maydis (EPICORN), For apple scab caused by Venturia inaequalis (EPIVEN).

PLANT DISEASE EPIDEMICS FORECASTINGDisease forecasting allows the prediction of probable outbreaks or increases in intensity of disease.Farmers need forecasts that will help them determine whether a plant infection is likely to occur so they can decide whether to spray a crop right away or to wait for several more days before they spray.If disease forecasting allows them to wait, they can reduce the amounts of chemicals and labor used without increasing the risk of losing their crop.

NEW TOOLS IN EPIDEMIOLOGYGlobal positioning system (GPS).consists of a handheld device that is coordinated with a global system of man-made satellites and, depending on the accuracy and coordination, provides quite accurate readings of the coordinates of the position of the device.GPS enables one to pinpoint an individual tree or a specific area or areas of the field that are affected by a pathogen, which then can be visited and examined again periodically for incremental advance of the symptoms.Geostatistics.Various geostatistical techniques that are applied in plant disease epidemiology to characterize quantitatively spatial patterns of disease development or the development of pathogen populations in space and over time.

Remote SensingRemote sensing usually refers to the use of instruments for measuring electromagnetic radiation reflected or emitted from an object.Image AnalysisImage analysis refers to photography and electronic image analysis, usually of large areas of fields or of mountains.

DISEASE-WARNING SYSTEMSThe purpose of these systems is to warn farmers of the impending onset of an infection period or to inform them that an infection period has already occurred.Immediate appropriate control measures are adopted to stop recent infections from developing or prevent further infections from occurring.

In 1970s BLITECAST use centrally located computers that process weather data either collected on the farm by individual growers and transmitted electronically or phoned in when certain weather conditions prevail, or at certain intervals. The computer then processes the data, determines whether an infection period is imminent, likely to occur, or cannot occur, and makes a recommendation to the grower as to whether to spray and what materials to apply.

DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF EXPERT SYSTEMSExpert systems are computer programs.Need professional in solving problems.The dependability of an expert system is proportional to the knowledge of the expert(s) who produced it. Expert systems can use data in almost any format and can suggest a solution to the problem.

Diagnosis or management of diseases of tomato (TOM),Grape (GrapES), Wheat (CONSELLOR), Wheat (MoreCrop)Peach and nectarine (CALEX), The Penn State apple orchard consultant (PSAOC),

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDecision support system (DSS) is supposed to collect, organize, and integrate all types of information related to the production of a crop, to subsequently analyze and interpret the information, and to eventually recommend the most appropriate action or action choices.

Numerous DSS systems available are aimed to assist practitioners.

WISDOM for potatoes by the University of Wisconsin.RADAR for apples by the University of Maine.PAWS for several crops by the Washington State University.

PublicationsAli, M. I., M. A. Khan, A. Rashid, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M. T. Javed, and M. Sajid. 2012. Epidemiology of Okra Yellow Vein Mosaic Virus (OYVMV) and Its Management through Tracer, Mycotal and Imidacloprid. American Journal of Plant Sciences. 3(12):1741-5Sajid, M., A. Rashid, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M. T. Javed, H. Jamil, M. Mudassir, M. Farooq, F. Ahmad, M. Latif, M. A. Chohan, M. Ahmad, and A. Kamran. 2013. In vitro evaluation of chemicals and plant extracts against colony growth of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum causing bacterial blight of cotton. European Journal of Experimental Biology. 3(1):617-21.

Rashid, A., M. Shahjahan, M. Inam-ul-Haq, M. Shahid, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, I. H. Waris, M. Farooq, E. Perveez, and M. Ashraf. 2013.Distribution of black chaff disease of wheat caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. translucens in different ecological zones of Pakistan and its management through plant extracts and bio-products. European Journal of Experimental Biology. 3(4):261-6.Rashid, A., M. U. Younas, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M. Farooq, I. H. Waris, E. Perveez, F. Ahmad, M. Ltif, and M. Ahmad. 2013. Screening of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) varieties against Ascochyta blight and its management through biopesticides. Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection. 2013;DOI: 10.1080/03235408.2013.826540:1-6.

Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and M. Atiq. 2013. Bacterial Seed and Boll Rot: A New Emerging Threat to Cotton in Pakistan Agrihunt Available at: http://agrihuntcom/pak-agri-outlook/3354-bacterial-seed-and-boll-rot-a-new-emerging-threat-to-cotton-in-pakistanhtml (accessed: May 2013). 2013.Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., F. Anjum, S. Hussain, M. A. Khan, A. Rashid, and M. Raza. 2013. Prediction of cotton seedling germination against pre-emergence damping off on the basis of environmental factors and seed applied fungicides. Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection.Javed, M. T., M. A. Khan, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, and M. Atiq. 2013. Biological management of bacterial blight of cotton caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. malvacearum through plant extracts and homeopathic products. Research Journal of Plant Disease and Pathology.3(1): 1-6.Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and A. Rashid. 2013. Pathogenic aspects of Pantoea agglomerans in relation to cotton boll age and Dysdercus cingulatus transmitting seed and boll rot in cotton germplasm. Archives of Phytopathology and Plant ProtectionEhetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and A. Rashid. 2013. Management of newly emerging bacterial seed and boll rot of cotton through chemotherapeutants, homeo-products and plant extracts. Tropical Agriculture.Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and A. Rashid. 2013. Epidemiological characterization of bacterial seed and boll rot of cotton and its vector (Dysdercus cingulatus). Journa of Plant Disease Epidemiology. 2013.