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Discover FinancialNYSE: DFS
Phil RosenTim TysonXiaoting YangPresented, 4-15-2008
Overview
• Macro Overview
• Industry Analysis
• Company
• Comparative and Banking Analysis
• Stock Performance
• Recent Events
• Recommendation
Macro Overview
• Unemployment
• Consumer Confidence
• Retail Sales
• Consumer Credit
• Housing Problems
Unemployment
• Upward trend since early 2007 (Current 5.1%)
http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm, Accessed 14 Apr 08
Consumer Confidence
• Dropped to 64.5 in March from 76.4 in Feb
• 25.4% Business conditions are "bad“ (Up from 21.3%)
• 25.1% Jobs are "hard to get" (Up from 23.4%)
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm, Accessed 14 Apr 08
Retail Sales
• Declining in recent months
• Recent Bankruptcies (LIN, SHRP)
• Stimulus Checks start getting mailed in May
Consumer Credit
• Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent in February
• Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/, Accessed 14 Apr 08
Housing Environment
• Increased mortgage delinquency
• Rising foreclosures
Industry Analysis
• Different models operate in the industry
Issuers
JPM Chase
Citi
B of A
CapitalOne
Discover
Processors
Visa
Mastercard
AMEX
Discover
Discover vs Visa/Master Card
Credit Card Company
Credit Card Issuer
Consumer Merchant
Credit Card Company
Payment Network
Credit Card Issuer$100 $98
$.25
$1.75
Monthly Fee
• Discover owns all aspects of Credit card payment operations, and thus captures all revenue points in this model
Consumer Merchant
Monthly Fee
Transaction Fee
Visa/MasterCard:
RCMP Presentation on DFS, Dec 2007
Company
• Spun off by Morgan Stanley June 2007
• Operations:– Discover Payment Network– Pulse ATM Network– Discover Bank
Discover Card
• Discover cards issued on Discover Network
– 6th largest issuer
– $47.5B receivables
– $105.9B total volume
– 3rd largest U.S. merchant network
“Discover Financial Services Financial Community Briefing Presentation”, http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/20/204/204177/items/284599/InvestorDay_032008.pdf, Accessed 14 Apr 08
“Discover Financial Services Financial Community Briefing Presentation”, http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/20/204/204177/items/284599/InvestorDay_032008.pdf, Accessed 14 Apr 08
“Discover Financial Services Financial Community Briefing Presentation”, http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/20/204/204177/items/284599/InvestorDay_032008.pdf, Accessed 14 Apr 08
Discover Bank and Insurance
• Offer typical bank savings products– CDs– Money Market Accounts
• Offer several insurance products– Auto Insurance– Homeowners– Term Life– Home Warranty
Revenue Streams
38%
37%
6%
3%7%
9% Consumer Loans
Securitization
Loan Fee Income
Insurance
Other Interest
Other Income
Problems: Securitization of loans Consumer loan defaults
“Discover Financial Services Financial Community Briefing Presentation”, http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/20/204/204177/items/284599/InvestorDay_032008.pdf, Accessed 14 Apr 08
Management’s Outlook• Continued rise in delinquencies and charge-offs (4.75%-
5.00% full year)
• Spreads should widen as cost of funds decreases
• Funding environment choppy; ABS available, but remain at wider spreads
• Maintain lower balance transfer volumes/loan growth
• Maintain prime underwriting focus
• Remain conservative on liquidity and capital
• Aggressive focus on payments opportunities
“Discover Financial Services Financial Community Briefing Presentation”, http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/20/204/204177/items/284599/InvestorDay_032008.pdf, Accessed 14 Apr 08
Comps Analysis
• Only one close competitor (Capital One)
• Hard to develop a useful model
DFS COF
Price 17.55 49.44
EPS .91 3.97
P/E 19.87 12.45
PEG 1.51 .72
Stock Price based on Comps AnalysisUsing P/E: $11.33Using P/Bv: $8.91
Banking Analysis
• Rising Delinquency Rates (Domestic)
– 30 Days – increased 7% in 2007– 90 Days – increased 10% in 2007
• Shrinking Net Interest Margin
(COF NIM: 5.3% in 2007)
Loan Loss Allowances
Stock Performance
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=DFS&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC, accessed 14 Apr 08
Recent Events
• Sold off Goldfish Division in Feb 2008
• Acquired Diner’s Club Company
• CEO Purchased 15,000 share on April 11th
Recommendation
• Sell 201 shares at the market– Securitization Problem– Rising Delinquency Problem– Shrinking Net Interest Margin– Consumer Spending
Appendix
• Diners Club– Purchased for $165m in cash– 2-3 years to integrate systems– 10-15m in annual revenue expected– DFS will not issue cards or service loans (Citi)– Will promote Discover Card internationally– Will allow use of either card on both networks
Appendix
• Gold Fish– U.K.-based credit-card business– Acquired 2 years ago for $1.7 billion– Sold in Feb 2008 for $70 million– Sold due to large loses and write downs