Car and truck models come and go. Some have staying power and evolve into nostalgic brands that stand the test of time over several decades. Others, even with a hint of nostalgia, are forced to be retired due to changing consumer preferences or a manufacturer production strategy shift. With the recent announcements of manufacturer plans to discontinue certain vehicle models in the coming years, such as Ford, Black Book analyzed retention trends of other popular vehicles that have been discontinued over the years.

Following is a thorough analysis from Black Book that reviews a handful of popular models that were discontinued in recent history. This analysis includes a mix of small- and mid-size cars, trucks, SUVs and minivans. Their discontinuation dates vary over the last few decades, and the reasons for their discontinuation are as diverse as the vehicles themselves.

The purpose of this analysis is to better understand the reasons why the following models were discontinued, as well as the rationale of how they retained value in the years following their retirement. In the analysis, Black Book calculated the retention of each vehicle model just prior to discontinuation and three years after discontinuation. Retention was calculated using Black Book Wholesale Average value of a three-year old vehicle as percent of original typically-equipped MSRP. The average retention was also calculated for each vehicle’s segment by including all vehicles in that segment. The net change in retention variance of the model against its segment, pre- versus post-discontinuation, was measured to determine if the discontinued model performed better (positive net change) or worse (negative net change).

DISCONTINUED MODEL ANALYSIS

DISCONTINUED MODEL ANALYSIS

LEVERAGING DATA & ANALYTICS TO UNDERSTAND DISCONTINUED VEHICLE RETENTION TRENDS

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Mazda MPV

Mercury Milan

Ford Crown Victoria

Saturn Ion

Saab 9-5

Pontiac G6

Ford Ranger

Mitsubishi Galant

Honda Element

Nissan Xterra

Hummer H2

Toyota FJ Cruiser

Net Change in Model Retention Against its Vehicle SegmentPre- vs Post-Model Discontinuation

The Mazda MPV was a minivan, but with a sporty character. It did very well in retaining value against other minivans before it was discontinued. Afterwards, its customers moved towards

crossovers and SUVs. As its fan base dwindled, the models lost value faster than the rest of the Minivan segment. The last

model year was 2006. Pre-discontinuation, Mazda MPV was 10 points better in three-year retention value (as percent of

MSRP) against its segment. Post-discontinuation, the model performance was 6 points worse in comparison to segment retention. As a result, the net in three-year retention pre- vs

post-discontinuation for the Mazda MPV was 16 percentage points worse than its segment’s average.

Ford decided to discontinue the Mercury brand as it trimmed its number of offerings post-recession. There was always much confusion as to what Mercury was: a more expensive Ford or a less expensive Lincoln. Ultimately neither side won out, and Mercury was discontinued in favor of focusing on main line Ford and upmarket Lincoln. The Mercury Milan had little differentiation from its cousin, the Ford Fusion. With the parent brand gone, the Mercury Milan declined in value steeply. The last model year was 2011. The net change in three-year retention pre- vs post-discontinuation for Mercury Milan was 10 percentage points worse than the Mid-Size Car segment’s average.

The Ford Crown Victoria was Ford’s large car offering, and in its commercial form was a favorite police car and taxi car as it had a large interior and massive trunk space to accommodate

law enforcement equipment and luggage. As its police customer base moved on to SUVs and taxi cabs lost ground to

ride-sharing, the Crown Vic lost market value. The last model year was 2011. The net change in three-year retention pre- vs

post-discontinuation for Ford Crown Victoria was 5 percentage points worse than the Full-Size Car segment’s average.

GM introduced Saturn as an American alternative to imported cars with the slogan “a different kind of car, a different kind of company”. One-price selling was aimed at creating a hassle-free buying experience. The Saturn Ion was a compact car sold between 2003 and 2007. The dent resistant plastic body paneled Ion saw its last production in model year 2007. It was replaced by the rebadged European Opel Astra. Towards the end, Saturn lost its brand identity. As investment dwindled, the brand was discontinued. The net change in three-year retention for Saturn Ion was 3 percentage points worse than the Compact Car segment.

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50%

Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Mazda MPV

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Mercury Milan

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Ford Crown Victoria

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Saturn Ion

Model Retention

Segment Retention

The Saab 9-5 was a luxury car produced by the Swedish automaker. Saab was an iconic brand with a mass-market

luxury appeal, but overall production volumes remained small. Saab declared bankruptcy in 2011. Saab owners had strong feelings for the brand, especially the iconic 900. Despite the

likely issue of parts availability problems, the 9-5 did relatively well against its peer group. The net change in three-year

retention pre- vs post-discontinuation for Saab 9-5 was only 1 percentage point worse than the rest of the Luxury Car

segment.

Pontiac was historically positioned to appeal to upscale performance enthusiasts, and retained a few niche vehicles like the GTO and Firebird. The Pontiac G6 was a sporty replacement for Grand Am, and carried most of the brand’s sales volume. Die-hard Pontiac enthusiasts kept G6 values strong well after its discontinuation. The last model year for Pontiac G6 was 2010. The net change in three-year retention pre- vs post-discontinuation for Pontiac G6 was only 1 percentage point worse than the Mid-Size Car segment’s average.

The Ford Ranger sold well over 300,000 units annually in its heyday. As sales volume shrank on Small Pickups, Ford discontinued it in 2011, hoping that the buyers will switch

to the full-size pickup, F150. Given the renewed interest in pickup trucks, Ford is bringing the Ranger back in 2019. As the competition in the segment declined substantially, Ford

Ranger improved in three-year retention by 9 points after discontinuation, much like the Small Pickup segment which

improved by 10 points on average. The net change was only one point worse for the Ranger.

The Mitsubishi Galant was priced competitively in its segment of Mid-Size Car. As sales slowed, Mitsubishi invested in electrification. However, its typical buyers were not yet ready for electric vehicles, which at the time were considerably more expensive than their gasoline counterparts. Young buyers were attracted to the Galant’s pricing, and it did relatively well after being discontinued. The last model year was 2012. The net change in three-year retention pre- vs post-discontinuation for Mitsubishi Galant was 1 percentage point better than the Mid-Size Car segment’s average.

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Saab 9-5

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Pontiac G6

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Ford Ranger

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Mitsubishi Galant

Model Retention

Segment Retention

The Hummer H2 combined the luxury of an SUV with the cargo capacity of a pickup. Based on existing Chevrolet running gear, it was a more affordable and user-friendly vehicle than the

military-derived H1. It was a very capable off-road, but when the recession hit and gas-guzzling vehicles were no longer chic,

GM discontinued it after 2009 model year. However, a niche customer base created a strong demand for this vehicle, with no alternative of such outrageousness available in the market.

The H2 showed a significant improvement after discontinuation in its three-year retention by 19 points over the performance of

the Full-Size Luxury CUV/SUV market.40%

50%

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80%

Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Hummer H2

The Honda Element made boxy designs cool. It combined the attributes of a SUV, pickup, and a camper. It has the

capacity of a small moving van and you could sleep in it with seats reclining absolutely flat. There was no carpeting and it could be hosed clean. This unique “active lifestyle” vehicle

was discontinued in 2011 as sales declined. Ironically, it was more popular with the older demographic than the younger

one marketers were aiming at. The net change in three-year retention pre- vs post-discontinuation for Honda Element was 5 percentage points better than the Compact Crossover/SUV

segment.

The Nissan Xterra was a true body-on-frame SUV with impressive off-road capability. It was axed in 2014 after a successful 15-year run. The “on road” focused Nissan Rogue, which outsold the Xterra by a huge margin, received more updates and investment. However, the rugged Xterra had a niche following among off-road enthusiasts. As the production of car based crossovers became more common, the longing for a legitimate off-road vehicle like the Xterra remained. The net change in three-year retention pre- vs post-discontinuation for Nissan Xterra was 10 percentage points better than the Compact Crossover/SUV segment.

The Toyota FJ Cruiser was acclaimed for its off-road performance and throwback styling. The wide stance and short wheelbase made it look quirky, yet capable. In 2014, its last model year of production, it sold only about 14,000 units. Given the uniqueness of this vehicle, and the relative high demand from enthusiasts, it became a modern-day collectible. The net change in three-year retention for Toyota FJ Cruiser after discontinuation was a whopping 26 percentage points better than the average of the Mid-Size Crossover/SUV segment.

Model Retention

Segment Retention

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Honda Element

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Nissan Xterra

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Pre-Discontinuation Post-Discontinuation

Toyota FJ Cruiser

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