Disclaimer - Nucleus Wealth · Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Nucleus Wealth and is for general information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is

Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared by Nucleus Wealth and is for general information only.

Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described. The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs. It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation. Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.

Nucleus Wealth does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Nucleus Wealth and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise noted, Nucleus Wealth is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.

It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held. No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.

Agenda

Steve KeenShelley GeorgeTim FullerDamien Klassen

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• Highlight of prof. Keen’s recent article

• Reflections & discussion

• Energy price update

• Investment implications




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Economists & Climate Change

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USA temperature and GSP per capita deviations

10− 8− 6− 4− 2− 0 2 4 6 8 1040−

20−

0

20

40

60

Data Points

USA Temperature and GSP per capita deviations

Temperature deviation from USA average (11.5°C)

GS

P p

erc

en

t d

evi

atio

n f

rom

US

A G

DP

ave

rag

e

0

0


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USA temperature and GSP per capita deviations

10− 8− 6− 4− 2− 0 2 4 6 8 1040−

20−

0

20

40

Data PointsQuadratic Fit (Correlation 0.31)Ice Age Prediction

USA Temperature and GSP per capita deviations

Temperature deviation from USA average (11.5°C)

GS

P p

erc

en

t d

evi

atio

n f

rom

US

A G

DP

ave

rag

e0

0




Energy and GDP (correlation 0.997)

197 0 198 0 199 0 2000 2010 20204000

6000

8000

100 00

12000

14000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100 000

EnergyGDP

Energy and GDP (Correlation 0.997)

Year

En

erg

y in

MT

OE

Glo

bal

GD

P in

US

$ 20

10 b

illio

ns




Change in energy and change in GDP (correlation 0.83)

1970 198 0 199 0 2000 2010 20202−

0

2

4

6

8

2−

0

2

4

6

8

EnergyGDP

Change in Energy & Change in GDP (Correlation 0.83)

Year

Pe

rce

nt

chan

ge

in E

ne

rgy

Pe

rce

nt

chan

ge

in G

DP

00

XY Align GDPWorld CO2 ( )=







Energy Costs:


Long Term Recent

Peaked?









Energy Costs:


Peaked?









Energy Costs:


Peaked?









Energy Costs:


Peaked?









Energy Costs:


Peaked?









Investment implications:

• Green Energy: e.g. Vestas Wind. • Energy Conversion leaders: e.g. Energias de Portugal, ENGIE (to lesser extent)• Service Companies: Censored


Stocks









Investment implications:


All Companies Just Companies who have reported 3Q

3Q numbers critical









Investment implications

Unemployment: Number one issueInsolvencies: A close second

Equities: • How far will earnings fall / recover• -ve: Gearing changes, deglobalisation, increased redundancy, supply chain• +ve: Reduced rent, travel, new efficiencies, lower staff costs

Bonds: • Government stimulus very focussed on supply, not on demand• RBA being dragged kicking and screaming into more unorthodoxy










Investment implications

Unemployment: Number one issueInsolvencies: A close second

Equities: • How far will earnings fall / recover• Consensus earnings useless. Five year average more helpful.• -ve: Gearing changes, deglobalisation, increased redundancy, supply chain• +ve: Reduced rent, travel, new efficiencies

Bonds: • Inflation vs safety

AUD: • Stimulus vs disruption






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Nucleus Investment Insights: Cameron Murray


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Disclaimer - Nucleus Wealth · Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Nucleus Wealth and is for general information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is