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Regime Based U.S. Long Short Equity StrategyA Time Varying Risk Aversion Strategy Based on Macroeconomic Regimes
CONFIDENTIAL. Not for distribution. For Institutional and Accredited investor use only. See important disclosures on the final page of this document.
P
Kevin W. Shea, [email protected]+1 857 350 3958
Peter B. McManus, [email protected]+1 857 233 4075
Quantitative Equity Strategies
Disciplined Alpha LLC 60 State Street, Suite 3750 Boston, MA 02109 USAwww.disciplinedalpha.com
Discipline AlphAn authority on regime based investing
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 2
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
• Registered Investment Advisor based in Boston, MA.
• Founded in April 2013
• Assets under management: USD $80 Million
• Multi-strategy, solutions-based product lineup• Regime Based U.S. Long Short Equity• Regime Based Global Macro• Stable Growth
• Advisory Board of industry and academic professionals
• Collectively: 10 Masters degrees, 3 PhDs, 4 CFA charterholders, 1 CFP, 1 CAIA
Disciplined Alpha’s offices located at 60 State Street, in the heart of Boston’s Financial District
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Firm Overview
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 3
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
We perform cutting-edgequantitative
research
Our Founding Principles
Innovation
DisciplineRisk
Control
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
We systematically
exploit behavioral
biases
We focus on drawdown
&the Sortino
Ratio
Firm Overview
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 4
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Strategies Overview
Regime Based U.S. Long Short Equity Strategy Macroeconomic regime-dependent factor tilts Bottom-up stock selection methodology Long Short US & Global
Regime Based Global Macro Strategy Systematic approach using an adaptive, dynamic
regime model Opportunistic, Long Short exposure to Equities,
Bonds & Liquid Alternatives Transparent, low-cost implementation using highly-
liquid ETFsStable Growth Strategy (SoGarp) Earnings drive stock prices, so optimize on earnings
—not returns! Consistent earnings stream delivers robust returns
with low volatility
Stable Growth
Retu
rn
Volatility
Risk-Free
Bonds
Market
Global Macro
Long Short
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 5
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Investment Philosophy
Risk Aversion is Time Varying.
These Risk Aversion Preferences are tracked in a real time,
forward looking, Macroeconomic Regime Model and captured
through a Long Short Strategy.
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 6
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Product Summary
Regime focused
Long Short Quantitative Large Cap Equity
Highly Liquid Russell 1000 Starting Universe
Capacity: $3 billion
Macroeconomic Regime Model determines factor weights and
exposures:• Dynamic factor weights
– Growth versus Value
• Exposures
– Gross Exposure 110% to 190%– Net Exposure 40% to 130%
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 7
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Putting the “edge” in Hedge
Unique Features: The Macro Regime based model determines the dynamic factor
weights and exposures. A separate Short Model to optimally capture stocks that
underperform. The top 12 of the 24 GIC Industry Groups, in which the model
demonstrated the most robust results. Derives proprietary Industry Group based factors from
conversations with company managements and fundamental analysts.
Why does this matter to our clients?Strategy HFRI Peer
Groups Superior Long Term Returns (1990 - 2013): 18% 12% to 13% Lower Drawdowns in 2008 - 2009: -13% -31% Risk Adjusted Returns: Sharpe (12/2007 - 5/2013) 0.7
0.0 Risk Adjusted Returns: Sortino (12/2007 - 5/2013) 1.3 0.0
to 0.1 Lower Correlations to Market in Bear Markets: 0.04 0.79
to 0.88
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 8
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Weather and Investment Climates have “Time Varying Regimes” Investment Climate and the Greed / Fear Cycle
Source: Disciplined Alpha, safehaven.com
Dominant Style Behavior
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria Anxiety
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondancy Depression
Hope
Relief
Optimism
Greed
Fear Greed
Weather cycle
Behavioral cycle(regime)
Investment cycle(regime)
Valuation matters
Positive momentum is rewarded
Valuation is ignored
Bubble bursts,Quality matters
Profitability is keyJunk rally
Valuation matters
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 9
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Over the long run, a disciplined approach to both styles can be profitable.
However there are long periods when one style outperforms the other.
Benefits of Diversifying Across Styles
Source: Disciplined Alpha. *The above results are based on a model portfolio- please see full text of disclaimer. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Value Factor Momentum Factor
Universe: Russell 1000 Time Period: 2/29/1988 to 5/31/2013
Rolling 12 Month Q1 – Q5 Return Spreads
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 10
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
The Time Varying Risk Aversion Strategy… a Decade in Development
In 2003, the market was recovering from a bout of turbulence following the busting of the DotCom Bubble.
Many quant strategies suffered due to a sudden shift in the effectiveness of the underlying factors. The market quickly shifted from rewarding Fear to rewarding Greed.
I began to review Macro variables to better understand and ultimately forecast these shifts.
In conjunction with the seminal work by:René Garcia, EDHEC Risk InstituteJohn Campbell, Harvard UniversityJohn Cochrane, University of
Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, NBER
Source: Disciplined Alpha
Dissecting the market dynamic in 2003
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 11
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
05
101520253035404550
Value Factor Weight
Growth Fac-tor Weight
Macroeconomic Analysis Determines Regime Factor Weights and Net Exposures
Fact
or
Weig
ht
(%)
Value Neutral Growth
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
• Long history of the Time Series: starting in 1987 to coincide with the start of the Compustat Point-In-Time database
• Responsive: Not Quarterly e.g. GDP
• Timely Not Lagged e.g. GDP
• Relevant Not Restated e.g. GDP
Regime
Data Attributes
Housing
Banks/Loans
Un-employment
Production
Sales/Retail
Markets
Opinion
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 12
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Macro Data is utilized to determine which of three Regimes the market is in: Momentum, Neutral or Value.
Dynamic Factor Selection and Risk Aversion
“Greed”Low Risk Aversion
“Fear”High Risk Aversion
Source: Disciplined Alpha
Proprietary Macro Regime Index
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Neutral
Value(Risk Off)
Long Expansion
LTCM
1999 Nasdaq +85%
Burstingof Dot Com
Bubble
Expansion1/04 to 12/07
Neutral 1/08Bear Fails 3/08
Value 4/08
Burstingof Housing
Bubble
Fed ReserveStimulus
U.S. Debt Downgrade
& EuroImplosion
LegitimateRecovery
S&LCrisis
Momentum(Risk On)
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Macro Regime Index Built2003 Q4
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 13
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Separate Short Model
Source: Disciplined Alpha
Behavior leads to asymmetric returns…
..and the tails should be modeled separately
Market Returns are Asymmetricand Negatively Skewed
Normal Distribution of Returns
Managing money is managing risk.
Upside risk and downside risk are asymmetric and should be modeled separately.
Risk Aversion is time varying and persists in the form of Risk Regimes.
These regimes can be tracked via a real time, forward looking Macroeconomic Regime Model and captured through a Long Short Strategy.
Only invest in those Industry Groups where there is a significant Alpha Opportunity Set and you have an Informational Edge to capture that Opportunity Set.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
LongQuintile 1
LongQuintile 5
LongVingtile 20
ShortVingtile 20
15.6%22.9%
29.6%
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 14
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Performance: Value added by Longs and Shorts
Source: Disciplined Alpha. **The above results are based on a model portfolio- please see full text of disclaimer. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Long Short Strategy has generated alpha from both the stocks sold short and the stocks held long.
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 15
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Our investment process:
We analyze a number of the macroeconomic data series that we have tracked and modelled for over a decade. This data determines which macroeconomic regime the overall economy is currently in. The regime determines the respective weight given to value and growth factors.
Once the regime has been determined, we rank a subset of the Russell 1000 based on the regime dependent factor weights. We rank only 12 of the 24 Industry Groups within the Russell 1000 based upon our analysis of stock price dispersion. Several of the factors are unique to each Industry Group. These unique factors are based on hundreds of conversations with company managements.
These analyses result in a portfolio of approximately 150 stocks, which consist of 120 long positions and 30 short positions.
This portfolio is then rebalanced on a monthly basis. FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 16
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Investment Process Overview
Macro data determines regime
Beginning Universe Russell 1000
Industry Group Selection
Portfolio Implementation
Monthly Rebalance
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Value,Neutral or
Growth
Highly liquid
Focus exclusively on the 12/24 industry groups based on stock price dispersion
120 stocks long30 stocks short150 stocks total
Ensures adherence to
discipline
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 17
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Performance
$ 49.80
$ 16.29$ 14.00$ 7.97
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Long Short Strategy
HFRI: Equity Hedge
HFRI: Equity Hedge Quantitative Directional
Russell 1000
$ 50.00
$ 25.00
$ 12.50
$ 6.75
$ 3.38
$ 1.00
Source: Disciplined Alpha. *The above results are based on a model portfolio- please see full text of disclaimer. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Long Short Strategy has generated a consistent rate of growth over the past 23 years.Growth of $1 for the Long Short Strategy versus the market index and its peer groups
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 18
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Source: Disciplined Alpha. *The above results are based on a model portfolio- please see full text of disclaimer. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Long Short Strategy has a superior risk return trade off – as measured by the Sharpe Ratio, but even more importantly by the Sortino Ratio – than the broad index and its hedge fund peer groups.
Comparative Performance Results
Long Short Strategy4/ 1987 to 5/ 2013
4/ 1987 to 12/ 1999
1/ 2000 to 5/ 2013
1/ 1990 to 5/ 2013
Trailing 10 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Since Market Top
Trailing 5.5 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Ann. Return 17.8 22.6 13.4 18.2 10.9 8.4Ann. Std. Dev. 11.9 11.7 12.0 11.9 10.5 12.0Sharpe 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.7Sortino Ratio (0%) 3.1 4.3 2.2 3.4 2.1 1.3Min Year 2.1 4.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Max # Mos. In # Mos. ToLast 5 Years Drawdown: -12.6 Drawdown: 9 Recover: 17
Russell 1000
4/ 1987 to 5/ 2013
4/ 1987 to 12/ 1999
1/ 2000 to 5/ 2013
1/ 1990 to 5/ 2013
Trailing 10 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Market Top
Trailing 5.5 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Ann. Return 9.4 16.4 3.1 9.3 8.0 4.3Ann. Std. Dev. 15.5 14.7 16.1 15.1 14.9 18.7Sharpe 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2Sortino Ratio (0%) 1.0 1.8 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.4Min Year -37.6 -4.2 -37.6 -37.6 -37.6 -37.6
Max # Mos. In # Mos. ToLast 5 Years Drawdown: -51.1 Drawdown: 16 Recover: 38
HFRI: Equity Hedge
4/ 1987 to 5/ 2013
4/ 1987 to 12/ 1999
1/ 2000 to 5/ 2013
1/ 1990 to 5/ 2013
Trailing 10 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Market Top
Trailing 5.5 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Ann. Return 5.1 12.7 5.9 0.9Ann. Std. Dev. 9.0 9.2 8.7 10.5Sharpe 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0Sortino Ratio (0%) 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.1Min Year -26.7 -26.7 -26.7 -26.7
Max # Mos. In # Mos. ToLast 5 Years Drawdown: -30.6 Drawdown: 16 Recover: 24
HFRI: Equity Hedge Quantitative Directional
4/ 1987 to 5/ 2013
4/ 1987 to 12/ 1999
1/ 2000 to 5/ 2013
1/ 1990 to 5/ 2013
Trailing 10 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Market Top
Trailing 5.5 Yrs. 5/ 2013
Ann. Return 4.8 11.9 7.0 -0.1Ann. Std. Dev. 12.1 12.9 9.6 9.6Sharpe 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0Sortino Ratio (0%) 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.0Min Year -22.9 -22.9 -22.9 -22.9
Max # Mos. In # Mos. ToLast 5 Years Drawdown: -31.1 Drawdown: 16 Recover: 42+
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 19
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Performance: Regimes Matter
Source: Disciplined Alpha. **The above results are based on a model portfolio- please see full text of disclaimer. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
In Momentum Regime, the Momentum Model annualizes at +18.9%, outperforming the Russell 1000 at +13.9%, and the HFRI Peer Groups.
The Momentum Model has a modest correlation with the Russell 1000.
Value RegimeAnnualized Average 2.5 11.2 -2.3 6.5 4.1
Correlation AnalysisMomentum
ModelValue Model
Russell 1000
HFRI: Equity Hedge
HFRI: Equity Hedge Quant.
Directional
Momentum Model 1.00Value Model 0.90 1.00Russell 1000 -0.11 0.04 1.00HFRI: Equity Hedge -0.01 0.07 0.79 1.00HFRI: Equity Hedge Quant. Directional -0.16 -0.07 0.88 0.83 1.00
Momentum RegimeAnnualized Average 18.9 18.1 13.9 14.3 15.0
Momentum Model
Value Model
Russell 1000
HFRI: Equity Hedge
HFRI: Equity Hedge Quant.
Directional
Momentum Model 1.00Value Model 0.73 1.00Russell 1000 0.38 0.39 1.00HFRI: Equity Hedge 0.33 0.07 0.66 1.00HFRI: Equity Hedge Quant. Directional 0.27 0.12 0.76 0.93 1.00
In Value Regime, the Value Model annualizes at +11.2%, outperforming the Russell 1000 at -2.3%, and the HFRI Peer Groups.
The Value Model has almost zero correlation with the Russell 1000, while the HFRI Peer Groups correlations increase with the Russell 1000 .
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 20
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Performance: Hedging Inflation Risk
Source: Disciplined Alpha. **The above results are based on a model portfolio- please see full text of disclaimer. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Long Short Strategy has generated a consistent rate of growth over the past 23 years, even in periods of Increasing Expected Inflation.
* Barclays US Aggregate Total Return
April 1987 to May 2013 Periods Return RiskReturn / Risk
US Long Short Strategy All Time Periods 17.7% 11.9% 1.5
Time Periods with Rising Inflation Expectations 16.2% 11.8% 1.4
Russell 1000 All Time Periods 9.4% 15.5% 0.6Time Periods with Rising Inflation Expectations 9.7% 14.2% 0.7
Bonds* All Time Periods 7.5% 6.1% 1.2Time Periods with Rising Inflation Expectations 4.0% 6.2% 0.6
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 21
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Strategy Performance- Post Launch Since July 2013, the Economy has been in the Momentum Regime.
Review of all Rolling 12 Month Periods when the Economy has been in a Momentum Regime, from 1987 to present.
Disciplined Alpha Long Short Strategy generates annualized net returns of +20.6% versus the Russell 1000 of +16.2%.
Russell 1000 also suffers more left tail events.
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
-17%
-15%
-13%
-11%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
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37%
39%
41%
43%
45%
47%
49%
51%
53%
55%
57%
59%
0123456789
101112131415
Disciplined Alpha Long Short Strategy
Russell 1000
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 22
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Strategy Performance- Post Launch First year results in Dark Green are less than the average of 20.6%.
First Year annualized volatility at 8.1% is also less than the average of 10.4%.
Question: Why is the return and the volatility lower than average?
Answer:
Low Dispersion...
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
-17%
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-13%
-11%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
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45%
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49%
51%
53%
55%
57%
59%
0123456789
101112131415
Disciplined Alpha Long Short Strategy During Momentum Regimes1987 to 2013
Rolling 12 Month Return
First 12 Months Return 8% to 12%
Average Rolling 12 Month Return: 20.6% Standard Deviation: 14.0%
Average Rolling 12 Month Return + 1 Standard Deviation: 34.6%Average Rolling 12 Month Return - 1 Standard Deviation: 6.7%
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 23
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Appendix
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 24
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Kevin W. Shea, CFA – Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Shea is CEO of Disciplined Alpha LLC. Previously he was the Director of Quantitative Research at Cadence Capital responsible for implementing a regime based approach across multiple products representing $5 bb. Mr. Shea has also held the positions of Portfolio Manager at Batterymarch where he managed $600 mm, and CIO and Founder of DA Capital where he grew the firm from $10 mm to $450 mm over four years. He has also been a Portfolio Manager at Invesco, responsible for $100 m, and a Quantitative Analyst at John Hancock Funds. Mr. Shea holds a B.A. in Liberal Studies from the University of Notre Dame, an A.L.M. in Biology from Harvard University, an M.B.A. in Finance and International Studies from Boston College and is enrolled in an Executive Ph.D. in Finance at the EDHEC Risk Institute. He is a member of the Boston Security Analysts Society, the CFA Institute, and the Institute for Quantitative Finance, also known as the Q Group. He is also a member of the Financial Accounting Standard Board’s (FASB’s) Investor Advisor Committee (IAC).
Brian Malone, FCA – Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Malone is responsible for the operations of Disciplined Alpha. He previously worked at Old Mutual, Sowood Capital and FourWinds Capital Management. He holds degrees in IT from Dublin City University and Science from University College Dublin. He is a Fellow of The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland and has a Diploma in International Financial Reporting Standards. He started his career with E&Y and KPMG before moving into the finance industry where he has spent the past 25 years. His experience covers all aspects of investment company operations with a particular focus on finance, legal and investment settlement.
Disciplined Alpha − Team
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 25
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Disciplined Alpha − Team
Simon Whitten, MSc. – Research
Simon has 14 years of brokerage experience, having worked at UBS for 5 years and State Street for 9 years. In his most recent role as Managing Director of the Quantitative Research Group at State Street Global Markets he was responsible for building systematic investable strategies which leverage market dynamic and behavioral finance information. He specializes in factor analysis and cluster theory. He holds a master’s degree in Actuarial Science and his paper ‘A non-linear Stochastic Asset Model for Actuarial Use’ won the 2000 Papers Prize from the Institute of Actuaries. Prior to joining State Street Global Markets in 2004, Simon worked at UBS in London where he was a member of the top ranked Global Equity Strategy Team for five years.
Keith R. Collier, CFA – Research
Keith specializes in asset allocation and global macro strategies. Before joining Disciplined Alpha, he served for nearly five years as a Quantitative Analyst at Batterymarch Financial Management, where he focused on Tactical Asset Allocation and US Equities. Prior to business school, he held management roles in real estate development for Toll Brothers, Inc. Keith began his career at General Electric as a member of the Technical Sales Leadership Program within GE’s Industrial Systems division. Keith received a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree in Architectural Engineering from the Pennsylvania State University and was a member of the Schreyer Honors College. He received an M.B.A. from Cornell University. He is a CFA charter holder and is a member of the CFA Institute and the Boston Security Analysts Society.
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Peter McManus, CFP – Marketing & Client Services
Mr. McManus is responsible for sales, marketing and client services at Disciplined Alpha. He previously held senior sales, consultant relations, client portfolio management and client service positions with BNY Mellon, Granite Investment Advisors and Cadence Capital Management. Prior to that, Mr. McManus served as a Foreign Exchange Trader for the Bank of Boston and was responsible for domestic and foreign cash management with Computervision Corporation. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from The University of Massachusetts at Amherst as well as the Certified Financial Planner designation.
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 26
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Disciplined Alpha − Team
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
David J. Dalzell, CFA – Head of Trading
Mr. Dalzell is Head of Trading of Disciplined Alpha LLC. Previously, he was Associate Head of Equity Trading Americas and Managing Director at BlackRock; Principal at Dalzell Trading Consultants, providing consulting and advisory services to both buy-side and sell-side firms; Founder of Canvassing The World, a proprietary trading fund monetizing inefficiencies of buy-side trading; and Senior Equity Trader at Trinity Investment, a quantitative investment management arm of Oppenheimer Funds. Mr. Dalzell holds a B.A. in Business Administration from Augustana College, an M.B.A. in Finance from The Pennsylvania State University, and is a CFA charterholder.
Todd C. Smith – Portfolio Manager, Technology/Media/Telecom Select Fund
Mr. Smith is the portfolio manager for Disciplined Alpha Technology/Media/Telcom Select Fund. He has been involved in multiple capacities of technology equity investing for 18 years. Mr. Smith began his career in the corporate finance division at Cowen & Company in the mid-1990s, working on initial public offering and merger and acquisition transactions in the Information Technology sector. Mr. Smith transitioned to the Cowen & Company equity research team, providing research on a broad set communications equipment and data networking companies. After moving to Morgan Stanley, Mr. Smith was part of a team that received multiple distinctions, including being part of the top ranked equity research team awarded by Institutional Investor Magazine. Subsequent to his work on the sell-side, Mr. Smith joined Boston-based hedge-fund, 033 Asset Management, where he was in charge of their long/short equity strategy for the technology sector. Most recently, he spent the last 8 years at Cadence Capital as a Senior Analyst covering the Technology, Alternative Energy and Telecom Services sectors. Mr. Smith graduated from Dartmouth College with a degree in Engineering Sciences
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 27
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Disciplined Alpha − Team
Gavin Alexander Mr. Alexander currently has a number of advisory roles including as Senior Infrastructure Advisor to Civitas Partners’ in South Africa, Senior Advisor to CMC Capital Partners in London and until recently he was a Senior Advisor to Credit Suisse Securities Ltd. Prior to his role with Credit Suisse he was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure Investment Banking EMEA for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London where he was also responsible for global investor coverage of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Infrastructure Funds, Pension Funds and Insurance Companies for equity investments in the infrastructure sector. Mr. Alexander has also held Managing Director positions at ABN AMRO and JP Morgan’s Structured Finance and Capital Markets teams.
Gabriel Baracat, CFAMr. Baracat is currently Managing Partner of Ark Analytics, a consulting firm to the Quantitative Investment Industry. Prior positions include Portfolio Manager at Columbia Management and Quantitative Analyst at Liberty Mutual. Mr. Baracat holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Virginia Polytechnic Institute, an M.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford University, and an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Yaacov Kopeliovich, Ph.D. Dr. Kopeliovich is currently Director of Research at RixTrema, a risk management firm focused on down-side tail risk. Previous positions include Quantitative Analyst at Munich Re, & Senior Associate at S&P/Duff Phelps. Dr. Kopeliovich holds a MFE from University of California Berkeley – Walter Hass School of Business, a Ph.D. in Mathematics from The Hebrew University and a Ph.D. in Finance at the EDHEC Risk Institute.
Dan Potter, Ph.D., CAIADr. Potter is currently CEO of Ars Analytica, a firm involved in the development of statistically based approaches to solving real world problems involving pattern recognition and data modeling for the healthcare, financial and technology sectors. Dr. Potter is also an Adjunct Professor at Brown University. Previous positions include Managing Partner at Gotham Research and Chief Technology Officer for Third Level Data. Dr. Potter holds a B.S. in Mathematics & Computer Science as well as an M.S. and Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Brown University. Dr. Potter is also a former National Science Foundation Fellow.
Advisory Board
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 28
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
The Model is diversified across styles and always includes exposure to the following factors:
– Valuation– Quality– Profitability– Momentum
Long Short strategy– Long Positions typical range: 100 to 130– Short Positions typical range: 25 to 35
Position sizes– Equally weighted, avoiding the multiple regime problem inherent in
most risk models– Position weights are not modified if within 0.2% of the target weight
Portfolio Construction & Risk Control
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 29
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Disciplined Alpha is a registered investment advisor based in Boston, MA.
Operational Partners – high quality platform:
Auditors: KPMG Administrators: SS&C GlobeOp Onshore Counsel: Goodwin Procter LLP Offshore Counsel: Maples & Calder Prime Broker: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tax advisors: KPMG
Research Partners and Quantitative Tools – long and trusted relationships established:
FactSet platform including: Alpha Testing, Portfolio Simulation, Screening, Portfolio Attribution
Compustat Point-In-Time fundamental data (utilized to avoid look ahead bias)
IBES Historical Detail database
Markit data utilized to determine short borrow costs
ITG Transaction Cost Model utilized to determine market impact costs
Head Office: 60 State Street, Suite 3750, Boston, MA 02109 USA
Platform
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 30
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Fund Structure: Offshore Master Feeder 3(c)7 based in the Cayman Islands
Management Fee: 1.0% Founder Class until $150 mm in Assets, then 1.5%
Performance Fee: 20%Liquidity: Monthly Contributions & Redemptions with 30 day noticeLock Up: 1.5% redemption fee in the first 6 monthsGates: None
Summary Terms
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 | [email protected] 31
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
Research Process • AT3 (MATLAB, R)
• Screen Iterator
• Northfield Risk Models
• Screening
• Data Central
• Portfolio Viewer
• PA2
• Northfield Risk Models
• Portfolio Springboard
• Company Explorer
• IBES Detail
• Economic Analysis
• Marquee
• Portfolio Dashboard
• FactSet Calendar
• PA2
• Index Viewer
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM
Investment Model
Model Output
Portfolio Construction
Intraday Analysis
Performance Attribution
Kevin W. Shea, CFA +1 857 350 3958 [email protected] 32
Disciplineδ Alphα LLCAn Authority on regime based investing
This document may not be reproduced in any form without the prior written authorization of Disciplined Alpha LLC. It is intended only for the exclusive use of the recipient, who agrees not to distribute or disclose its contents to another party.
This document is only a summary of several discussion points about Disciplined Alpha LLC and the fund it manages and is not intended to be an offer to sell or a solicitation to invest in any such vehicle. At the date of this presentation, there are no funds actively managed by Disciplined Alpha LLC. The results presented in this documents refer to a model portfolio managed by Kevin Shea and not to any actually traded fund or portfolio. Therefore there is no guarantee that these or even similar results would have been obtained had such a portfolio been traded.
Past performance does not guarantee future returns and potential for gains is accompanied by the possibility of loss. Leverage will be employed, which can make investment performance volatile and amplify potential gains or losses. An investor should not make an investment unless they are prepared to lose a substantial portion of their investment. The fees and expenses charged in connection with this investment may be higher than the fees and expenses of other investment alternatives and may offset profits. Opportunities for withdrawal and transferability of interests are restricted, so investors may not have access to capital when it is needed. The Fund/s managed may be concentrated and a lack of diversification may result in higher risk. A more complete description of these entities, and the inherent risks involved, can be found in a Private Placement Memorandum for each Fund, which a prospective investor should review thoroughly before investing. Fund interests are intended to be non-public and remain unregistered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the Act) and therefore offer and sale of interests must be conducted in accordance with legal restrictions. By accepting delivery of this document, the recipient represents that they are an accredited investor as defined by Regulation D of the Act and a qualified purchaser as defined by Section 3(c)(1) or Section 3(c)(7), whichever may apply, of the Investment Company Act of 1940.
Prospective investors should consult their own legal and financial advisors to determine the suitability of an investment for their particular situation and to be aware of and comply with any legal or other restrictions. This document is for illustrative and discussion purposes only and may not accurately or completely represent any Disciplined Alpha Fund. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that information will be correct after the date this document has been distributed and Disciplined Alpha LLC will not notify you of any changes to the information contained in this document. Prospective investors are encouraged to ask for additional materials and ask further questions about any proposed Fund investment.
Important Information – Please Read
FIRM > PHILOSOPHY > PROCESS > PERFORMANCE > PLATFORM