DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USAhttp://www.gadr.giees.uncc.edu

EXAMPLE: REMEMBERING 2OO8

THE YEAR OF THE MYANMAR CYCLONE AND THE WENCHUAN, CHINA EATHQUAKE

ACCOMPANIED BYTROPICAL STORMS, HURRICANES, TYPHOONS FLOODS, WILDFIRES, EARTHQUAKES, AND VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS WITH

AN EARTHQUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO, AND A USA REPORT ON THE EFFECTS OF

CONTINUED GLOBAL WARMING

SUMMARY OF NOTABLE EVENTS DURING 2008

• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN CHILE

• CYCLONE NARGIS STRIKES MYANMAR (BURMA)

• WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE, LANDSLIDES, AND “QUAKE LAKES”

• WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA• GREAT MIDWEST USA FLOODS• 2008 TROPICAL STORM-HURRICANE-TYPHOON SEASON• PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE• CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO• USA REPORT ON GLOBAL WARMING

SOCIETAL IMPACTS DURING 2008

• Hundreds of thousands killed and injured.

• Millions of homes damaged, destroyed, and/or inundated.

• Infrastructure damaged and destroyed.

• Toxic materials released into air, water, and soil.

• Shutdown of oil and gas platforms and petrochemical plants

• Millions evacuated and displaced.

• Livelihoods of hundreds of millions adversely affected.

• $ Tens of billions in insured and uninsured economic losses.

• Health care needs sharply increased everywhere.

AFTER 10,000 YEAR DORMANCY, CHAITEN ERUPTS IN CHILE:

MAY 3, 2008

CYCLONE NARGIS STRIKES MYANMAR (BURMA) MAY 2, 2008

CYCLONE NARGIS STRIKES MYANMAR (BURMA) MAY 2, 2008

• ONE OF THE WORST CYCLONE DISASTERS IN ASIA DURING THE PAST 15 YEARS

• 214,000 KILLED AND 2.4 MILLION PEOPLE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED

• ONE OF THE WORST CYCLONE DISASTERS IN ASIA DURING THE PAST 15 YEARS

• 214,000 KILLED AND 2.4 MILLION PEOPLE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED

CYCLONE NARGIS:

• The storm's 120 mph winds blew the roofs off hospitals, downed trees, and cut electricity to the country's largest city, Rangon.

• Storm surge and torrential rain caused local flooding.

•Myanmar’s policies of self-sufficiency allowed entry of materials from a few countries, but usually not the skilled disaster workers.

FIVE LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS

FIRST: no nation, rich or poor, can go it alone when confronted by a natural disaster of the magnitude of a Cyclone Nargis.

WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE

WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE

• MAY 12, 2008• M7.9• 80,000 DEAD• 26 MILLION BUILDINGS (HOMES,

SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS) DAMAGED OR DESTROYED

• LANDSLIDES AND 69 “EARTHQUAKE LAKES”

• MILLIONS DISPLACED

45,690,000 people were adversely affected by the disaster.

GREAT MIDWEST FLOODS

WILDFIRES

IN CALIFORNIA

THE 2008 TROPICAL STORM-HURRICANE-TYPHOON

SEASON

EVIDENCE OF PLANET EARTH’S WILD WEATHER

JUNE 1 – NOVEMBER 30, 2008

2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that can dampen the formation of Atlantic storms did not develop.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES IN 2008

• Sixteen storms occurred during the 2008 season.

• Over $100 billion in losses.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES

• ARTHUR

• BERTHA

• CRISTOBAL

• DOLLY

• EDUOARD

• FAY

• GUSTAV• HANNA

• IKE• JOSEPHINE

• KYLE

• LAURA

TROPICAL STORMS-HURRICANES IN 2008

• MARCO

• NANA

• OMAR

• PALOMA

IMPACTED NATIONS

• Jamaica, Grand Turk Island, Montserrat, Anguilla, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Cuba in the Caribbean.

•Mexico

• Florida, Louisiana, and Texas in the Gulf of Mexico

• Nova Scotia on the Atlantic seaboard

• Many of the Gulf of Mexico’s offshore oil and natural gas drilling platforms were in Edouard’s path.• Companies prepared platforms for heavy wind and rain and evacuated workers.

• Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rica, Cuba, and Florida were in Fay’s path.• Fay was a heavy rainmaker, generating more than 75 cm (30 in) of rain, and spawning tornadoes in florida.

• GUSTAV CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN CUBA BEFORE REACHING USA.• GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AT 9:30 AM IN COCODRIE, LOUISIANA, ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS.• A CAT 2 HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 183 KM/HR (110 MI/HR).

• THE STORM SURGE WAS 4 m (14 ft).

• OIL PLATFORMS WERE EVACUATED AND PRODUCTION SHUT DOWN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.• NEARLY TWO MILLION PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED FROM NEW ORLEANS AND OTHER CITIES TO OTHER PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND TO OTHER STATES

• OVER ONE MILLION WITHOUT POWER

HURRICANE GUSTAV: NEW ORLEANS SPARED AS

LEVEES HELD AND A CHANGE IN THE STORM’S PATH KEPT IT

FROM BECOMING ANOTHER KATRINA

HURRICANE IKE WAS SIMILAR TO THE STORM

THAT CAUSED THE SEPTEMBER 1, 1900

GALVESTON HURRICANE DISASTER

HURRICANE IKE‘S TRACK

• HAITI, BAHAMAS (GRAND TURK ISLAND), CUBA, AND USA (TEXAS) HIT HARD• GULF OIL PRODUCTION SHUT DOWN AGAIN, JUST TWO WEEKS AFTER GUSTAV PASSED THROUGH• OIL TANKER CRISIS AND OIL STORAGE FIRE.

HURRICANE IKE: TURKS AND CIAOS: Grand Turk;

SEPT 8

HURRICANE IKE: TCI: South Ciaos

• MASS EVACUATIONS IN TEXAS• A FLOODING and A WIND EVENT • STORM SURGE OF 6-7 m EXTENDED INLAND 25-35 km OVER A DISTANCE OF 200 km

• Thousands of homes and businesses in Texas and SW Louisiana were damaged or flooded

•

HURRICANE OMAR

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MONTSERRAT

WIND DAMAGE IN ANGUILLA

OCTOBER 2008

MONTSERRAT

MARCOS, NANA, OPRAH, AND PALOMA COMPLETED THE SEASON

• The warm ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and absence of El Nino effects contributed to a long hurricane season in the Atlantic.

PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE

MAGNITUDE 6.4

SHALLOW 14 KM FOCAL DEPTH

5:10 AM

12, 000 HOMELESS IN 40 DEGREE WEATHER

AT LEAST 200 DEAD

OCTOBER 29, 2008

2008 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE

2008 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE

• Ziarat, located in the hills and one of the poorest areas of Pakistan, was devastated by landslides and collapse of mud brick houses.

• Early estimates indicate that as many as 12,000 are now homeless in 40 degree weather.

CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT SCENARIO

NOVEMBER 2008

ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR

Source: US Geological Survey

The goal is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquakes in California , so that end users can identify what they can change now—before the earthquake —to avoid catastrophic impacts after the quake occurs.

• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, a Hayward fault earthquake is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.

• A Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses and the campus of UC Berkeley and impacts 7 million people.

• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.

• The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion losses. • These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs for buildings, highways and lifelines.

• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because more retrofitting is needed.

•Hopefully, it can still be done.

USA REPORT ON EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

JUNE 20, 2008

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A PROBLEM IN THE USA

• increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level,

• rapidly retreating glaciers and thawing permafrost,

• lengthening growing seasons,

• lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers,

• earlier snowmelt, and • alterations in river flows.