Disaster Risk Assessment in Planning (Concept Paper)

Disaster Risk Assessments (DRA) in Sub-National Planning and Decision-

making Processes

By: Renan T.Tanhueco (PST Member, NEDA)

This paper accompanying the module provides a brief explanation of the concept and

methodology for integrating DRA results in Sub-National Planning and Decision-making

Processes. It attempts to provide merits of the Provincial DRA in terms of supporting decisions

at the local level. Can the current DRA approach proposed at the Sub-national planning be used

for local level planning? And if so, what are the useful features and possible modifications?

Another question being addressed is how climate change implications be integrated into the

current DRA with their results used to plan cities and municipalities in the Philippines?”

1. Imperatives for Action

The past few years have reminded us that disasters affect anyplace and anyone. The recent

tragedies such as those as in Indonesia (2006) and Haiti (2010) earthquakes, the Philippine

flooding (2009) brought up by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng have left thousands of people dead,

left millions homeless and have added to other losses in terms of livelihoods and resources lost.

It is widely believed that disasters can be avoided through disaster risk reduction initiatives.

Governments around the world have committed action to reduce disaster risks. Priorities for

action had been identified by member states of the United Nations through the Hyogo

Framework for Action (HFA 2005, ISDR), to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015. The HFA

offers five priority areas of action, namely:

1. Make disaster risk reduction (DRR) as a priority by ensuring that it is a national and local

priority through a strong institution capable of implementation

2. Know the risks and take action by identifying, assessing and monitoring risks leading to

an effective warning system

3. Build understanding and awareness through knowledge, innovation and education to

build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels

4. Reduce the underlying risk factors by ensuring that exposure to hazards, vulnerabilities

of people and their places and resources are protected and safe, thus resulting to

resilient communities.

5. Be prepared and ready to act by strengthening the disaster preparedness for effective

response at all levels.

The HFA (Point No.2) of 2005 emphasizes that decisions need to be informed of the risks for

action to take place by identifying, assessing and monitoring risks. By building an understanding

and awareness through knowledge, innovation and education, it aids in forming a culture of

safety and resilience, which may reduce risk factors, such as exposure to hazards, vulnerabilities

of people, their places and resources. This eventually will result to resilient communities.

Besides maintaining a current information base to understand potential hazards, resilient

communities should be well informed in the preparation and implementation of its future

growth and improvement plans (i.e. development plans), and be able to allocate financial

resources from national and local capital markets for climate change mitigation and adaptation

initiatives and for response and reconstruction in times of natural disasters.

As already known, a hazard and risk assessment methodology is available for the sub-

national planning process (NEDA, 2009); however, the methodology was only applied for sub-

national level and does not include emerging concerns such as the climate change impacts to

development.

To deal with climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction issues, the current

initiatives should address the consequence of climate change and the increased frequency and

intensity of extreme events and disaster related to this change.

2.0 The Rationale

The sub-national DRA guidelines reveal initially, that the risk values are coarse estimates, in

view of the quality and level of data (i.e. aggregated areas defined by floor areas and provincial

level crop land areas, use of national level data (NSO data),and that the vulnerabilities (i.e.

fatality rates, and cost of damages rates)were obtained from national figures. Such information

provided are useful for planning for exposure reduction and initiating mitigation at the regional

and provincial level; however, but may lack resolution to inform actions needed at the local level.

Hence, there is a need to define further, the vulnerability and risk estimation requirements at

the local level, so that specific vulnerability reduction and mitigation may be pursued with

confidence and to explore further, how sub-national assessments can guide local decision

making towards risk reduction.

The emerging issues of climate change implications also warrant an approach to mainstream

them in local level planning. While local climate change variability and “downscaled” climate

change information may not be available yet (SNC, 2010), there is a need to incorporate the

information in the decision making process in local development and land use planning process.

This paper only attempts to provide approaches to improve data and estimation for DRA at the

local level, following the sub-national risk estimation procedures and to provide insights on

mainstreaming useful for local and sub-national levels.

3.0 The Objective

The objectives of this paper are to present views on mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction

(DRR) results in Sub-National and Local Development Planning and Decision-making Processes.

Specifically:

• To present, in brief, the NEDA DRR Mainstreaming with focus on integrating disaster

risk assessment (DRA) in Sub-national development and physical framework planning

processes.

• To provide views on integrating Sub-national disaster risk assessment and their

implications in development and land use plans (at local levels)

4.0 Assessment in Mitigation Planning

An assessment is a process for analyzing the condition of the susceptibility of the site, a

building, people and operations that may be affected or exposed to a natural hazard. It provides

for a statement needed by stakeholders to do action, such as: to prepare, to allocate resources,

organization, provide mitigation.

4.1 Risk Reduction in Development and Land Use Plans

The primary purpose of risk reduction in Sub-national, municipal or city planning is to

identify policies, actions, and tools for implementation over the long term that will result in a

reduction in risk and potential for future losses community-wide.

This is accomplished by using a systematic process of learning about the hazards that can

affect a community or city or municipality, setting clear goals, identifying appropriate actions,

following through with an effective mitigation strategy, and keeping the plan current. Effective

planning forges partnerships that will bring together the skills, expertise, and experience of a

broad range of groups to achieve a common vision for the city or municipality, and can also

ensure that the most appropriate and equitable mitigation projects will be undertaken. Risk

reduction planning is most successful when it increases public and political support for

mitigation programs and preparedness, results in actions that also support other important city

or municipal goals and objectives, and influences the decision making to include hazard

reduction considerations and improving resilience. Integrating in a city or municipal land use

plan is effective in reducing disaster risks as this allows the risks and their management become

part of the development concern. With a systematic procedure of assessing them, the strategies,

programs, projects and activities are rationally determined. They are seen as municipal and city

investments that support development and rational planning of land uses.

4.2 Levels of Assessment

For purposes of planning and zoning regions against hazards, the information provided by

hazard inventories and physical susceptibilities may be useful for giving information, gaining

consensus on actions needed, or giving advisories; however, this may have limitations about the

hazard character so as to identify appropriate more specific mitigation measures for and to

prioritize these measures considering available resources, existing institutional arrangements

and capabilities to undertake risk reduction measures. Without substantial hazard information,

it is difficult to initiate laws and ordinances towards hazard reduction. For regional and

provincial planning, the character of the hazard must be fully explained and understood. In

terms of zoning a wider area, the results may simply be preliminary if hazard details are

qualitatively described.

For local level planning, detailed information about hazard character, as obtained from

more quantitative approaches may be sufficient to support laws and ordinances towards hazard

reduction and local zoning. Delineations (or geographic extents), the nature of the hazard, its

magnitude, onset, and other physical attributes as obtained from more intermediate or

advanced procedures helps to provide a better assessment, which can further aid in describing

and ensuring better zoning criteria and delineations on the ground. With the inclusion of

vulnerabilities and risk information, the elements at risk are identified, asset and life losses are

quantified and so the type and degree of structural (building retrofits)and non-structural

interventions, programs to reduce vulnerabilities and ensuring that zoning take away the

population and important assets ( as practically possible) from high risk area are removed.

As the type of intervention to be pursued to reduce risk becomes more specific for the

element of concern (a parcel of land, building site, building), information on the hazard and

susceptibilities of the element at risk similarly requires more detailed information. For example,

building performance against an earthquake event will require further investigation on the

response of the structure from different excitations of the ground. This may require

geotechnical investigations of the building site and simulations to provide for the appropriate

structural retrofit. Zoning the area for the possible types and heights of buildings allowed will

make use of this geotechnical information. Laws and ordinances may be based on the results of

these more detailed (or advanced) information.

Table 1.Types and Levels of Zoning

Note: X = applicable

(X) = may be applicable

Source: Paul T. Finlay, (2010),GUIDELINES FOR ASSESSING PLANNING POLICY AND CONSENT

REQUIREMENTS FOR LANDSLIDE PRONE LAND INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR SCIENCES

(NEW ZEALAND). Presentation , De La Salle University

4.3 A Brief Review of the DRA Concepts used at the Provincial Level

In this section, a brief review of the disaster risk assessment concepts at the Provincial level

is presented. The DRA follows a four step process, namely: (a) hazard characterization and

frequency analysis, (b) consequence analysis, (c) risk estimation and (d) risk evaluation.

Hazard Characterization involves identifying and characterizing the hazard(s) that threaten

an area. As a process, it involves the LGU to do the following: 1.)Prepare an inventory of all

hazards that threaten the Province/Region, which includes collecting hazard information

and maps relevant to risk assessment from mandated agencies and preparing hazard

inventory matrix; 2) Determining the return period for each hazard event which includes

estimating return period for earthquake related hazards; estimating return period for

volcanic hazards; estimating return period for hydro-meteorological hazard events and

preparing a frequency table. The output is an inventory of hazards that affect the planning

area.

Consequences Analysis involves determining the consequences of these potential hazard(s)

to exposed population and land uses .Two measures are used to determine the

consequence: fatality and cost of property damage in a hypothetical event. Their

expressions include the following:

For estimating fatality:

Where refers to the consequence in terms of fatality per hypothetical event of the

hazard;

Is the potentially affected population and is the factor for fatality (or a person

fatality rate). The potentially affected population is obtained using the product of the

population density and the common geographical areas between the hazard and the land

area.

For estimating damage:

Where refers to the consequence in terms of damage cost per hypothetical event of

the hazard;

Is the value of potentially affected area and is the factor for property damage

(or a damage rate). The potentially affected area is obtained using the product of the

replacement value and the common geographical areas between the hazard and the land

area. The consequence analysis provides a measure also for computing risks expected from

various hazard events. This however, requires the probabilities of occurrence of various

events.

Figure 1. Framework for Mainstreaming DRR in Sub-National Plan

F AP FC P F= ×

FC

APP FF

Pr Pr PrD A DC P F= ×

Pr DC

PrAPPr DF

Risk Estimation involves estimating the risk (annual basis), expressed as the expected

annual

number of lives lost, damage to property

For estimating fatality risk:

Where refers to the risk of fatality for hypothetical events of the hazard;

is the probability of occurrence ( 0-1) assigned for the event of concern and is the value

obtained in the consequence analysis.

For estimating property damage risk:

Where refers to the risk of property damage for hypothetical events of the hazard;

is the probability of occurrence ( 0-1) assigned for the event of concern and is the

value obtained in the consequence analysis.

Risk Evaluation involves prioritizing areas (i.e. municipalities and cities or their clusters) for

further assessment and assessing vulnerabilities of the elements at risk in the area.

Assigning a “priority score” for each municipality requires the computed risks for fatality and

property damage costs computed at the barangay levels, be aggregated to meet criteria to

qualify under a certain category of the levels of risks. These are performed for each hazard

of interest affecting the Province. Identifying the high risk areas (among municipalities) is

followed by a vulnerability assessment which can be carried out with the local level.

Elements considered are the population, social infrastructures, service infrastructures,

transport and access, economy, and environment.

4.4 Importance of Risk Evaluation to Local Planning

The importance of Sub-National risk evaluation to local level vulnerability assessment is to

understand the dynamics of the social and economic activities of the area, how these activities

affect the resources and use of the land, how it results to the income and services developed

and how the hazards can result to induce stresses among these elements and their interactions.

This is where Provincial level planners, could direct their concerns about more specific concerns

hazard implications on municipal, inter-municipal and inter-provincial interactions. Given the

wider geographic area, the assessment of vulnerabilities and risks at the provincial level appears

as uniform, because of the resolution of data used to represent them, for example-population

density, crop areas, and buildable areas (residential and non-residential) areas do not provide

further information about their true condition, exact location and distribution. For local DRA,

adjustments on the data requirements for hazard assessment and the elements considered for

vulnerability assessment need to be pursued. This section describes these suggestions on risk

evaluation for both the Provincial and Local planners.

F FR P C= ×

FR P

FC

P

Pr PrD DR P C= ×

Pr DR

Pr DC

Hazard

Another reason for continuing local level assessment is to improve on the hazard

information. The hazard maps used for the Provincial level were mainly susceptibility maps

which may not meet the requirements of a local level risk assessment especially on

information on coverage, character, and duration. For example, in floods, other than depths,

timing of floods such as time of rise, time to subside, duration of flooding, velocity and

debris carried are useful to understand the onset, nature of damage, and how it develops

into risks and so specific mitigation measures can be applied. Similarly, for earthquakes, ,

site characteristics ( soil, geology, disturbed sites) and secondary hazards ( dam breaks,

spilling of hazardous materials) which may be triggered may need to be identified and

assessed to provide a clear picture on the nature of the hazard, vulnerabilities posed by the

site on the elements placed above them.

Alternatives to create better hazard information is to use geomorphologic data ( flood,

earthquake); that is to study the origins, development of the land formations , which helps

determine potential of hazard to occur. Another method is to use historical information

about the hazard events recurring and the resulting damage and losses. This however, relies

on being able to document the events and the quality and detail of assessment of the event.

A third approach is to use modeling of the hazard event provides another alternative for

deriving event scenarios. It must be realized though that substantial research must be

poured to demand assessment of various site specific hazards impacts. A combination of

these approaches is likely to provide better information.

The various approaches require a local investigation to make the risk information locally

placed and as possibly required, site specific.

Whether the addition of detail of hazard information can be aggregated to improve on the

Provincial level hazard information remains to be seen. This is so because, for example, the

availability and detail of hazard information may not be the same for all municipalities, such

as about periods covered (events of concern) may be different, the damage assessment and

reporting may not be uniform, and the description may largely be qualitative and hence

making it difficult to organize or create useful information for event assessments. Table 1

provides information for improving on current hazard map information.

Table 1. Suggested additional information for local hazard assessment

Hazard

Information

Information sources Descriptions and Measures

Land slide Local reports by Municipal DCC

New and existing inventories with

mandated agencies, research team

Soil and geotechnical surveys

Studies and models on rainfall intensity,

earthquake shaking correlation with

landslide occurrence

Type of landslides

Number of recorded occurrences along

identified susceptible areas in the municipality

or locality

Frequency of observed occurrences per area, or

per length of road

Local maps of danger zones

Floods and

coastal surges

Geomorphology of basin, past flood

studies, flood control system in place

Local reports on flood monitoring, event

damage reports

Warning systems in place (stage records,

flood records, dam operation records,

flood control operation

records),Rainfall ,records during storm and

flood events, wind information

Site inspection and field investigations to

identify danger spots or zones

Geological Studies and Surveys

Community based monitoring in place

Source of floods, nature of floods, impacts of

floods to locality,

Topography, contours of the place, ground

water table, tidal information,

Flood depth, debris carried, time of rise , time

for water to subside, velocity of flow, areal

extent of flood,

Frequency of flooding (inland or coastal)


Earthquake

related

(groundshaking,

liquefaction

prone areas,

tsunami)

Existing geomorphology of and geology

studies

Geotechnical studies in the area as a

requirement by building officials

PHIVOLCS recording of shaking events/

liquefaction,

REDAS information base

Site inspection and field investigations

Future geological studies and surveys




Warning systems in place

History of seismicity



or locality

Frequency of observed occurrences(or

intensities) per area, or per source,


Volcanic Activity Geologic and geomorphologic studies in

the area

PHIVOLCS recording of volcanic activity in

the area

Site inspection and field investigations

Future geological studies and surveys





or locality


intensities) per area, or per source,



Warning systems in place

Drought Geomorphology of basin, past drought

studies, water availability records

Local reports on drought, damage and loss

reports



or locality


intensities) per area

Maps of affected areas

Note: Relevant agencies must be consulted in identifying and validating information and in preparing maps.

Box 1.

When hazard information is lacking to provide resolution on the nature of the risks, one may resort to

past studies or provide models for developing scenarios. For example, for floods, greater clarity on the

flood hazard is provided with the following details: flood depths, frequency of each flood event, duration,

time of rise, time to subside, entry points and pathways of flooding, among others. Combining

information from the city or municipality disaster reports and field investigations may reveal a correlation

of the intensity of the flood with the corresponding damage and loss. This should be described and

assessed to understand impacts arising from different degrees of flooding, as resources would allow, The

output of this process should at least (a) identify highly affected areas; (b) identify the factors creating the

flood challenge; (c) provide an explanation of its causes; and (d) identify its implications to the areas or

sectors affected and to the local government; and (e) determine the needed policies for hazard mitigation

(e.g., flood walls, rerouting of flows, temporary detention of water, tree planting, among others) (f) assess

capacities and available finances for pursuing mitigation or adaptation. Similar requirements are also

suggested in profiling other hazards of the municipality/city.

Population

The use of the population density matters because for the area exposed, the intensity of

population in that area reflects the potential number of people affected; however, it does

assume within its construct, that the population is uniform over the unit area described.

This may not be true, as reality, describes that population are usually concentrated on

settlements (or built up areas) and their locations and distributions do not reflect uniform

arrangement. A detailed assessment can look into the following suggestions:

• A map of the location and distribution of the affected settlements.

• A selection of potentially vulnerable segments of the society such as schools in high

risk areas, indigenous persons, special population groups in high risk areas (elderly,

physically challenged, children, indigenous peoples) and low income segment.

• Population of school children (elementary, high school), number of exposed

population and percentage of exposed population below poverty line can be used

for the assessment.

• The use of Community Based Monitoring Systems (CBMS) data can be useful to

prioritize communities for disaster management.

• Migration, Population growth and Location can help in interpreting urbanization of

the Municipality and determine growth over high risk areas

Building and infrastructure

For some types of hazards, building damage is the first sequence of the chain of events

before casualties can result. These are most evident in hazards involving earthquakes,

flooding, tsunami and wind related disasters. Building resilience against the pressures and

forces posed on them by the hazard event (or magnitude), determines the type and degree

of damage expected. These necessarily require an understanding on the way these buildings

and their components (structural and non-structural) behave and perform against different

hazard events. Casualties result depending on the building damage, the use and occupancy,

time o day, among others. The addition of information at the barangay or local level

planning shall preferably include the following:

Building typologies (types) of different functions and their performance against several

hazards of concern and past disaster information focusing on the following:

• Performance and damage information of different material constructions

• Nature of damage, amount of damage and their counts recorded

• Contents in the structure

• Valuation of the structures

• Compliance to building codes ( old and new)

• Condition of the structures

• Importance of structures and functions

A focus on possible areas where mass casualties can result should limit the coverage of the

study, such as schools and hospitals, building units for residential and non-residential

purposes (such as government institutions, commercial buildings). Buildings of historical or

cultural significance should also be included in the study, so as to identify the necessary

adjustments (ex. special retrofits) that may be needed to maintain their life.

Service Infrastructures such as waterlines and wastewater, drainage facilities, treatment

plants, communication lines and towers deserve individual assessments and the results

should measure the damage and the disruptions that result. Similarly, the information on

these structures should involve:

• Performance and damage information of different utilities

• Nature of damage, amount of damage and their counts recorded

• Valuation of the structures

• Compliance to building codes ( old and new)

• Condition of the structures

• Importance of structures

Transport and Access

Transport and Access is important as the roads and bridges, for example, allows the

movement of the people, goods and services into and outside an area, and provides

circulation within the area.. The resilience of the roads, bridges linking ports and harbors, air

ports into the study area to the different hazard magnitudes affects the continuity of

functions of the area and those depending on the area’s economy.

Important buildings, networks or linkages (existing and proposed) of national, provincial and

local importance should be reflected over hazard maps. The information should include:

• Count, proportion, capacity and condition of roads, bridges in high risk areas

• Classified road networks (national, municipal, barangay road etc.)

• Bridges by Type and their conditions

• Number, condition and importance of Port and Harbors

• Number, condition and importance of Airports

• Damage information on these buildings and structures

• Transport demand and supply, and trip distributions

Economy

The economy can be physically described by the location of buildings and structures in the

City or municipality. The location of employments centers, industries providing export

products, emerging economies and the interrelationships of these industries (linkages of

inputs and outputs), service areas ( ex. commercial), agricultural areas, mining areas, among

others describe a fabric which can be manifested by their form, arrangements and design,

and the linkages formed by the land, air and water transport and access systems .

Information shall also include registration of business establishments revealing their

numbers, locations, distributions, amount of investments, area and numbers of farmers in

high risk municipalities (palay, corn, coconut etc.), area and numbers of livestock and

poultry in high risk municipalities. Historical damage and loss may reveal the impact of

hazard events on this sector.

Environment

The information on the destruction and loss of coastal and forest resources, flora and fauna

due to (potential) actual exposure to natural hazards should be prepared. This should cover

site conditions of exposure (e.g. number, being in a catchment area, poor drainage, distance

from a hazard source or path -i.e. fault line, 4 km eruption zone) which create the unsafe

conditions of these areas. Sea level rise of certain value will have and more inland areas

submerged. Negative hazard impacts on Land use may result to similar negative impacts to

settlements and economy, such as reduced areas for agriculture, reduced forest areas,

among others.

5.0 Integrating the Regional and Provincial DRA results

Planning of the City or Municipality looks inwards and outwards. Looking inwards means the

planning considers the city or municipality within the context of the bigger geography; and

planning outwards looks into the role and implications of the city or municipality plans to the

wider area such as the Province or Region. In relation to risk reduction and planning, the

following general steps are suggested.

a) Prioritized areas are marked for further investigation

Since the provincial DRA is premised on susceptibility and potential hazards defined in

Agency maps, field investigations should add more information on said maps to reveal

site specific, high risk areas. The local DRA shall focus on these areas. Together, they

form part of the inventory of information and can be used to physically screen planning

areas. High risk areas are listed. Figure 2 shows a Surigao del Norte risk map revealing

prioritized areas (e.g. fatalities and damages) for further investigation.

Figure 2. Priority Map showing the areas based from risk estimates.

b) Review and validate the elements at risk and their vulnerabilities in high risk areas.

The Provincial DRA also reveals the vulnerabilities of the place. These are earlier

prepared in matrices to help explain the risk estimates prior to planning the Province.

The assumptions and decisions can be reviewed and validated with the local DRA

exercise. At this point, the matrices can be reviewed for localizing its values specific to

the municipality/city or its sub-areas.

c) Risks as a development problem

How does the Province view the risks? What are the implications to the municipality or

city if left unattended? Local people or local authorities (city or municipality) may have

differing views or perspectives of what constitutes the risks in their places. Experiences

in the city or municipality, as well as, results from the local DRA can confirm these initial

views of the risk at the Provincial level. Vulnerability assumptions and risk assumptions

become clearer at the local level. Key analysis points should be listed and form part of

the local level assessments. They can be initially grouped under the following categories

against the sectors affected.

• Life threatening or are direct threats to public safety;

• Threat to the sustainability of key production resources or employment

activities;

• Threat to the delivery of basic services; and

• Harmful or destructive to protected areas, flora, fauna, and other protected

natural resources.

d) Goals derived from issues & problems are reviewed and aligned with the vision of the

Province or Region.

The vision of the City or municipality should reflect the role it will play in the region or

province. A revisiting of the vision statement, as well as, the goals set for the

municipality or city can check if a re- alignment of goals with the Province or Region is

needed. This can form part of the setting goals and objectives portion of the local

planning process

e) An objective/target shall focus on increasing resilience or in mitigating risks of a sector.

In each development sector, matrices showing the goals, objectives, strategies and

programs, projects set by the Province should be reviewed by the Municipality. In

relation to development and land use objectives and strategies, the risk reduction

measures deal with increasing the resilience of the communities (social, economic,

environmental related) and in mitigating the hazard (infrastructure and land use) which

hamper growth & development. Risk reduction strategies such as: Avoid or eliminate

– remove a risk trigger or deny a risk- creating activity; Mitigate –reduce the frequency

or the severity by changing physical characteristics or operations; Share or transfer –

shift the risk-bearing responsibility to another party; Retain – fund potential losses with

own resources

Increasing resilience means reducing vulnerability to life, resources, economy, incomes,

access to services. The local government planners should identify, list and confirm these

connections between the analysis risk results and the risk reduction measures proposed.

These are the points of validation after the local risk assessment is prepared.

Land use plans (Provincial level) and transport and access linkages should be cross

checked with the existing and proposed land uses. The important implications to local

plans must be reviewed (ex. physical/infrastructure plan and land use) at the evaluation

stages of the planning (i.e. after the DRA has been completed).

f) Plans for implementing disaster risk reduction strategies should be reviewed

Implementation and schedules provide important information on how the future local

plans can take off. For example, the proposal of a flood control structure (e.g. dam and

levees proposed at the regional or provincial level) or an on-going project study can

affect future drainage systems and easements at the local areas. It can be expected to

meet resistance because of proposed routes or realignments cutting across settlement

areas, without proper procedures for selection and remuneration.

g) Local DRR plans provide inputs to higher levels plans

After the local DRA and planning has been completed, the Province, HLURB and relevant

agencies review the local plan along with the Provincial plans (or agency plans) and

update the latter. With consultations among relevant stakeholders, the local plans get

approved and adopted

6. An On-Going Process

The DRA methodology by NEDA (2009) used in sub-national planning, provide a process to

inform decision makers on hazard exposure, valuation, aggregation of elements, costs of

damage of structures, crops and fatality rates. The methodology for risk quantification still

undergoes adjustments as more specific, reliable data and information becomes more available:

- exposure element and their attributes may need to be more specific(e.g. buildings

or smaller clusters instead of aggregated built up areas)

- clearer attributes, delineations and coverage of hazard prone areas

- new valuation for other elements

- recurrence interval of hazard events known

The scientific community and academic institutions can be tapped to provide the needed

estimates for current mainstreaming purposes. Less rigorous methods of qualifying risks (e.g.

use of indices) are also available in literature.

To evaluate the consequences of these risks to the different development sectors,

stakeholders have to validate the estimates. This may be done through the conduct of expert’s

group meetings and local consultations through focused group discussion(s). Here, key

stakeholders who have good knowledge or have experienced natural calamities, disasters, or

other environmental degradation that affected or is affecting the community should be tapped

to assess and evaluate the risks.

References:

Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board(2006), CLUP Guidebook. A Guide to Comprehensive

Land Use Plan Preparation, Vol.1.

Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board(2007), CLUP Guidebook. A Guide to Sectoral Studies in

the CLUP Preparation, 2007, Vol.2.

Jose, S.G,2010, Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (DRR/CCA) in

Local Development Planning and Decision –making Process, NEDA-UNDP-AusAID Project,1st

Expert’s Group Meeting, Jan, 12, 2010 presentation, Summit Ridge Hotel, Tagaytay City

NEDA-ADB,2007 Guidelines on Provincial/local Planning and Expenditure Management,

Provincial Development and Physical Framework Planning Volume 2, NEDA-ADB, 2007

NEDA-UNDP,DIPECHO, 2009, Guidelines on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in

Subnational Planning and Physical Development

SNC Project Management Team, 2010, Enabling Activities for the Preparation of the Second

National Communication(SNC) on Climate Change to the UN /FCCC: An Overview; NEDA-UNDP-

AusAID Project, 1st Expert’s Group Meeting, Jan13, 2010 presentation, Summit Ridge Hotel,

Tagaytay City

State and Local Mitigation Planning; How to Guides,: Understanding Your Risks: Identifying

Hazard and Estimating Losses(FEMA 386-2),(August 2001) by Federal Emergency Management

Agency

The Allen Consulting Group, Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Dept. of the Environment

and Heritage, Australian Greenhouse Office 2005

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2005, Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015: Building Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, Final Report. World

Conference on Disaster Reduction, UN/ISDR, Geneva

Documents

Disaster Risk Assessment in Planning (Concept Paper)