Disaster Management Centre - ESCAP

Disaster Management Centre

KEY MESSAGES

South and South-West Asia faces a new climate reality with disaster risks clustering in two risk hotspots

Message 1

The subregion faced higher climate-related economic lossesMessage 2

Invest in sector-based resilience to outpace riskMessage 4

Utilize emerging technologies to overcome the challenges posed by geography and convergence of risksMessage 5

KEY FINDINGS

POLICY ACTIONS

Message 3 Disasters are widening inequalities in incomes and opportunities

Message 6Unlock the potential for regional cooperation through the Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network

| KEY FINDINGS | Message 1South and South-West Asia face new climate realities with ‘perfect storm’ hotspots of disaster and socioeconomic

vulnerabilities

Hotspots are emerging in which environmental fragility, poverty and inequality are converging in a ‘perfect storm’.

South Asia South and South-west Asia

Riverine basin floods hotspot

Droughts and sand and dust storm hotspot

• Climate risks like floods and

droughts account for most of

the losses

• 76 per cent of the total AAL

is from drought, whilst floods

account for 13 per cent of the

total AAL.

• However, the losses are also

country specific.

• Bangladesh, for example has

the highest loss from floods

and India has the highest loss

from droughts

| KEY FINDINGS | Message 2

With the inclusion of climate-related, slow onset disaster, annualized

economic losses are more than double the previous estimates


Social sectors related to people’s wellbeing and livelihoods are at greatest risks from disasters

Sectoral impact of disasters on selected South and South-West countries (US$ million)

Damage and loss assessments show that almost 43 per cent and 38 per cent of disaster impacts were on the social and productive sectors (education, health,housing and culture)


Overlaps of disaster impacts with inequalities in income and opportunity can leave people more vulnerable

Overlaps of inequalities of income and opportunities and disaster losses SSWA countries

The D-index measures how all population groups fare in terms of access to a certain opportunity like education and healthcare. excludes certain groups.

Like the Gini coefficient, the D-index takes values from 0 to 1, 0 meaning no inequality, and 1 maximum inequality


If unmitigated, disasters will continue to contribute to and drive income inequality and poverty in the sub-region

Projected Gini in 2030, with and without unmitigated disaster shocks

Percent reduction in extreme poverty rates in 2030 with and without disasters

Income inequality Deprivation and disempowerment

Increase under-five mortality rates

by 0.3 percent point

Decrease education rates


Increases the Gini coefficient


A 1 percentage point increase in exposure to climate-related disaster risks in Asia –Pacific

Across the Asia Pacific region, disasters widen inequalities in income and opportunities that deepen poverty over generations- this is critical for South Asia


Poverty, inequalities and disaster risks re-enforce each

Higher odds of agricultural poor living in high multi-hazard risk areas

Turkey

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Nepal

-50.00

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

Baseline: living in high risk multi-hazard area

Lower odds of the wealthiest 20 per cent living in high-multi-hazard risk area

Wealthier individuals can protect their

assets and well-being as they can avoid

living in areas vulnerable to disasters.

In Nepal and Pakistan, poorer

populations are xx times more likely to

live in high multi-hazard risk areas

Agriculture poor in the sub-region are

significantly more likely to live in high

multi-hazard risk areas.

In Bangladesh, agricultural households

are xxx times more likely to live and

work in high multihazard risk areas



Identifying at risk populations in high-multihazard risk areas- who gets left behind in opportunities when a disaster strikes?

Populations at risk of losing access to opportunities in high multi-hazard risk areas in Bangladesh

Education Healthcare


GBM basin is an example of the perfect storm of risks

Hotspot of high population, with low HDI and high hazard risk and land degradation

GBM basin is particularly vulnerable

• 34 percent of the entire GBM population is

exposed to hazard risks and almost 90

percent of this population is multi-

dimensionally poor (low HDI)

• The highest concentrations of

socioeconomic-hazard risks are along the

floodplains. The populations living there are

subject to recurrent annual flooding.

|POLICY ACTIONS| Message 4

Building resilient sectors to outpace disaster risks

-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

Sri Lanka

Iran (slamic Republic of)

Turkey

A. Growth

F. Growth + disaster risk

G. Growth + disaster risk + investment in social protection

H. Growth + disaster risk + investment in education

I. Growth + disaster risk + investment in health

J. Growth + disaster risk + investment in infrastructure

Impact of investments on inequality, 2016–2030

Investing in resilience yields

INVESTING IN ADAPTATION YIELDS

A TRIPLE DIVIDEND

AVOIDED LOSSES

ECONOMIC BENEFIT

SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS


The economics of resilience

Global Commission on Adaptation (2019)

Investing $1.8 trillion globally in these five areas from 2020 could generate $7.1 trillion in total benefits


Bangladesh- A success case in building resilience to reduce disaster mortality

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1970 Cyclone Bhola 300,000 deaths

2019

Cyclone Fani

5 deaths

MAJOR CYCLONES IN BANGLADESH

2012 Adoption of Disaster Management Act

2003-9 Comprehensive Disaster Management Program

1972 Formation of Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief

1993

Creation of

disaster

management

councils and

committees

from the

national to

the local level

1997 Establishment of the Standing Orders on Disasters (SOD)

Source: Asian Disaster Reduction Centre

Increased efficiency of early warning systems

Cyclone shelters

Building civic awareness

Strengthening buildings

Improved post disaster recovery including ‘build back better’

| POLICY ACTIONS | Message 5

Technological innovations offer unprecedented opportunities for resilience-building in South and South-West Asia

Digital identity systems strengthen

the capacities of public and private

sectors to deliver services and

create a foundation on which to

build new systems, services and

markets

• Technological innovations offer unprecedented opportunities for resilience-

building in South and South-West.

• Prescriptive use of big data can be seen for index- based flood insurance

(IBFI).


GIS based mapping of vulnerable communities and disaster risks can locate exactly where investments are crucial

Mapping critical infrastructure that serves the most vulnerable populations during disasters

Nepal Bangladesh

Unlock the potential of regional cooperation to build resilience to cross border disasters and climate change

The Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience NetworkStrengthen disaster risk assessments for multi-hazard early warning systems of common and transboundary disasters

Improve analysis to enhance regional knowledge on disaster risks, resilience, and adaptation and promote the wide dissemination of such knowledge

Maximize the efficiency of existing regional cooperation mechanisms


Accelerating regional cooperation in policy coherence

ESCAP, using an evidence based systems thinking approach, has mapped out country-specific and quantified synergies and trade-offs, including the key entry points for disaster resilience which can be a starting point to discuss operationalization of policy coherence.


Accelerating regional cooperation in policy coherence


• Implement risk-

informed policies and

investments

• Capitalize on new

technologies

• Unlock the potential

of regional

cooperation

THANK YOU!

STAY CONNECTED & GET INVOLVED!

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Madhurima Sarkar-SwaisgoodEconomic Affairs Officer, Disaster Risk ReductionICT and Disaster Risk Reduction DivisionESCAPEmail: [email protected]

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Disaster Management Centre - ESCAP