13 May 2020

Dear all

Welcome to this week’s edition of our market intelligence update. Whilst the UNWTO evaluation brings home the huge impact Covid-19 has had on global tourism, the weekly domestic tracker of consumer sentiment and holiday intentions show increasing positivity in the UK, albeit ongoing uncertainty around timelines for returning to ‘normal’. There are also interesting comparisons with other nations.

As many countries begin to ease restrictions, we have interesting insights into how lockdown restrictions are being eased, and where reported, the impact on the ‘R’ value. In coming weeks we will be able to report more specifically on the tourism sector and how this is beginning to open up –building on the information we’re already getting from China.

In terms of our owned channels, we’re beginning to see a slight but steady increase in traffic to our main consumer site visitscotland.com. Social media traffic remains volatile and dominated by news events – especially the beginning of divergence in measures between England and Scotland.

This week saw the first of a short series of webinars by VisitScotland Directors, including Q&A sessions, this week led by Riddell Graham, Director of Industry and Destination Development. If you missed it, you can catch up here. And as always, look out for Malcom Roughead’s linked in article – this week looking at recovery and responsible tourism.

Stay safe.

Vicki

The UNWTO has published a new evaluation of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism. The latest data shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22% fall in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020 and that it could decline by 60-80% over the whole year. This 67 million fewer international tourists up to March translates into US$80 billion in lost exports.

As prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate, the UNWTO has outlined three possible future scenarios pointing to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year depending on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders.

The UNWTO predict domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand and the signs of recovery will appear by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. The de-escalation phases initiated by several countries show us the "new normal scenario" where rethinking the business model, reorienting it towards assuring the health of the traveller, or being a responsible consumer, can be the key to a new tourism based on adaptability and sustainability.

Vicki MillerDirector of

Marketing & Digital

13 May 2020

This section examines the latest weekly tracking research from BVA-BDRC for the UK domestic market which looks at consumer sentiment and travel intentions. Please note that to take part in this research, respondents must have done at least 2 of the following since 1st Jan 2020:-1. Stayed in paid for accommodation2. Went on a day out to a visitor attraction3. Used one of the following transport modes: plane, train or bus

The survey covers all parts of the UK and is nationally representative on gender, age and regions (sample size: 502 respondents (wave 7).

Mood of the Nation

The mood of the nation improves slightly in the lead up to the 75th anniversary of the VE Daycelebrations with an average score of 6.7 – equalling its score from 2 weeks ago. The graphalongside also shows a comparison with other nations. Worth noting that although the US hasthe most positive mood, almost half of US respondents believe that the worst is yet to come.

For the first time in 7 weeks of tracking, more people think the worst is now behind us than think the worst is yet to come. The plurality (43%) believe that things are going to stay the same over the next few weeks. Balancing the continuation of this welcome trend, a less welcome one also continues. Predictions of when something close to normality will return, continue to edge backwards. 2 in 5 of respondents now believe that life will not return to normal until 2021.

Reproduced courtesy of BVA-BDRC. Please visit their website for further details

13 May 2020

Financial Pressures / UK Holidays

Financial mindsets are at their most positive in 4 weeks of tracking, but with very different resultsremaining evident across life stages. ‘Pre-nesters’ and families with children at home are bearingthe financial brunt of this crisis.

Visitor Attractions

For the third consecutive wave, around 1 in 5 expect to visit an attraction in the next 3 months, pushing back the anticipated return another week

Two weeks ago a 3 month lead-time meant a return to attractions in mid-late July (the start of the English summer holidays), whereas this week a 3 month lead time takes us to early August. Although ‘intention-paralysis’ is related directly to government guidance, the longer the paralysis continues the longer attractions will stop being front of mind in the public’s minds, particularly as the appetite for online engagement continues to decline.

The proportion planning a UK holiday before or during the summer holidays remains low at 1 in 6

This apparent wave-on-wave stability in planning of a UK holiday in the next few months, actually makes a summer holiday less likely with each passing week. Two weeks ago, the 17% planning a trip ‘in the next 3 months’ took them to mid-July. Now it is early August. People’s intentions will change as government guidelines do, but they will need a period of time between a government ‘green light’ and actually booking/taking a trip. This gap will provide planning time and also reassure that appropriate measures are working.

Reproduced courtesy of BVA-BDRC – for full details please visit their website

13 May 2020

As destinations around the world begin to emerge from lockdown, domestic tourism initiatives continue to proliferate. Some examples:

• Shanghai tourism authorities have joined forces with firms across the private sector to deliver a programme of tourism-related shows in order to boost domestic tourism. The webcasts, attracting 2 million viewers, highlight the attractions, cultural heritage, food and other experiences available across the different districts of the city. The live-stream also offered discounted travel packages and consumption coupons worth 50 million yuan (around £5m) on tourist attractions, hotels and local restaurants, with some products sold out in just 10 minutes.

• Visit Mexico is highlighting the country’s product to residents with a strong emotive message –that the country needs residents to travel local, shop local, eat local to help support the recovery of the national economy.

• Amsterdam is similarly preparing to encourage the Dutch to experience what the city has to offer. The city is also considering how to find a balance between economic success and a level of tourism that is compatible with quality of life for residents. It is expected that COVID-19 recovery plans will accelerate previous work to address issues of mass tourism and make more responsible changes that benefits business, residents and visitors alike.

• Tourism New Zealand has now taken on the remit of domestic tourism, with a focus on stimulating demand at a national level. The change is part of a wider national tourism reset considering COVID-19, and sustainable tourism looks likely to be a key focus of the new strategy. TNZ is working with enterprise bodies and the Department of Conservation to define what a thriving and responsible tourism industry looks like in the country post-pandemic. Communities will also be consulted heavily as part of the recovery strategy.

13 May 2020

• Germany's R rate is fluctuating between 0.83 (8 May) and 1.07 (12 May).• Easing of lockdown measures is now primarily managed by the individual states with

regulations differing from one region to the next. Germany's federal government is closely monitoring overall numbers of new infections and will overrule all state measures should there be an upward trend detected.

• Many shops and restaurants are re-opening, with all schools to follow before the summer holidays commence. Measures of physical distancing remain in place.

• Airline carriers are slowly starting to publish plans to resume some of their flight operations. Many will be implementing increased hygiene and safety standards, e.g. making face masks compulsory and not offering board services (duty free products, food & drink).

• Tour operators remain hopeful for their programmes to commence in late summer/ autumn & winter season 2020.

• The UK ‘R’ rate is reported to be between 0.5 and 0.9. • The UK Government published a paper on 11 May outlining a roadmap for how and when

the UK (primarily England) will adjust its response to the COVID-19 crisis. Step one outlines initial easing of restrictions in England from 13 May. Those who cannot work from home should return to work but continue to social distance and avoid public transport where possible. Unlimited outdoor exercise is now permitted and you can meet with one person from outside your household in a public place and drive to outdoor locations. No overnight stays are permitted. This excludes places in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. UK (England) messaging has changed from Stay Home to Stay Alert.

• Scottish Government outlined there are no changes to the current restrictions in Scotland other than exercising outside is now permitted multiple times. Messaging strictly remains Stay Home.

• UK airline routes remain limited or grounded however are starting to publish their desired strategies to re-commence flights. This is likely to be gradual and timings will depend on Government restrictions. Focus across the board is on implementing increased health and safety measures. Airlines are considering requirements to wear face masks and pass temperature checks, limiting in-flight services and not selling the middle seat to allow for social distancing.

• Rail operators in the UK continue to operate reduced services and are in discussions around implementing increased and consistent health and safety measures.

• The Coach Tourism Association continues to liaise with UK wholesalers and coach operators with advice and support. Operators are continuing to postpone or cancel tours. Many businesses have furloughed staff. Of those still operating, there are signs of interest in product development for future tours (2021).

13 May 2020

• On May 11, Spain's R rate was estimated at 1.07. A few days earlier, on May 8, Italy's R rate was estimated between 0.5-0.7 (depending on region).

• On May 6, the Spanish government extended its state of national emergency for another 2 weeks. This means lockdown measures, albeit eased a little since the start of the pandemic outbreak, remain largely in place. From May 15, international visitors arriving in Spain will need to self-isolate for 14 days in their homes or booked accommodation.

• In Italy, churches are allowed to re-open on May 18, other places of worship are currently being discussed. Restaurants and hairdressers are increasingly demanding to re-open earlier than June 1. The different regions are trying to get measures lifted earlier in areas with low infection rates.

• The Greek government will allow foreign tourist visits from July 1. Details on hygiene and safety measures are to be shared by parliament on May 15.

• On May 10, France's R rate was estimated at 0.6.• The French government reinstated that all easing of lockdown restrictions will be a

gradual process and targeted to stem a resurgence of the outbreak.• On May 7, home affairs announced that citizens will not be allowed to travel outside

of France until at least June 15 unless they have been permitted to do so for essential work purposes.

• From May 11, citizens are allowed to travel domestically up to a radius of 100km (60 miles) around their place of residence without needing a form of justification. Any movement beyond this remains to require an essential reason.

• Air France is planning on increasing its flight operations to 30% for July. As a response to the state supported loan, France's finance minister has asked the airline to commit to further effort in reducing CO2 emissions and to refrain from selling flights between Paris and cities less than 2h30 away by train.

• According to a VVF survey, lockdown has not changed consumer wishes to go on holiday, in fact the wish to travel has increased for 38% of respondents. 55% will wait to see how the situation evolves before booking a holiday. The main apprehension regarding a holiday is predominantly the fear of contracting the virus rather than budget.

• Tour operators and travel agents are expected to play an important role in reassuring consumers post-Covid. This is down to their expertise and destination knowledge, responsibility in putting packages together, proximity and understanding of customers’ expectations as well as customer service.

13 May 2020

• Reminder: The US Government’s current travel ban to UK and Europe to stop the spread of coronavirus in the US (enacted 16 March) is still in operation.

• Various US States are in the process of re-opening their economy. Restrictions vary on a state by state basis with some states reopening industries, food and drink and some forms of entertainment while others remain under a ‘stay at home order’.

• The US CARES Act directed $58 billion to US airlines out of the $2 trillion economic stimulus package. Airlines must not cut pay or jobs through Sept. 30 as a condition of the grants and are barred from buying back stock or paying dividends and face restrictions on executive compensation.

• Delta and American Airlines both announced that they will require passengers to wear masks. Delta specifically announced that passengers will have to wear masks beginning at check-in.

• US Government are also discussing legislation that would require airlines to ensure that planes are cleaned and sanitized in line with Centres for Disease Control (CDC) guidelines and that the airlines follow guidelines for notifying employees about a co-worker being diagnosed with COVID-19.

• Continued focus from intermediaries on ‘dreaming of future travel’ and inspirational content.

• The Dutch government shared more details on easing lockdown measures: From May 11, the “stay at home as much as possible” message will be replaced by “stay at home if you have symptoms”. The 1.5 metres physical distance rule remains in place. Indoor swimming pools are to re-open, over 18s can resume outdoor sports, libraries can re-open. From June 1 public transport will resume normal services, but passengers are to wear “non-surgical” face masks with max 40% seat capacity. Cafes and restaurants can re-open keeping 1.5 metres physical distance between tables, concert halls and cinemas can re-open for a maximum of 30 people. From July 1 campsites and holiday parks incl. communal washrooms can re-open, restaurants and cinemas as well as churches and congress centers can scale up to 100 people.

• The Norwegian government shared a timetable for easing of lockdown measures. Most of Norway will re-open by June 15, but not the borders. Schools are re-opening on May 11, with much of everyday life returning to normal by June 15. Major events remain banned until September 1. Physical distancing measures will remain in place throughout, but private events can host up to 20 people.

13 May 2020

• On 8 May the Australian Government released their 3 stage plan for recovery. The country is aiming to have as much of the economy up and running by July. The first stage of the recovery will see restrictions easing on which retail outlets can open, how many people can gather together and rules governing local and regional travel eased. Relaxation of current measures will be done on a state by state basis so we will see a staggered return to 'normality' across Australia.

• Stage 3 of the recovery roadmap is when Australia will begin to consider cross-Tasman travel to New Zealand and potentially other Pacific Islands, there are no specific timelines attached, it is unlikely that we will see wider international borders opened with Australia for quite some time yet.

• One of the key components of Australia's strategy for recovery is the introduction of the CovidSafe contact tracing app which will inform people when they have been in contact with someone who may have Covid-19, so far around 5.5 million Australians have downloaded the app.

• Qatar Airways have announced their phased return to operations which will begin in June across their Global network. All planned routes are subject to a range of statutory issues and international travel restrictions.

• Tour Operators are offering increasingly flexible cancellation or postponement options including rebooking travel up until 2022. Some group operators are working on policies and guidelines on how they will manage group travel in post-pandemic world.

• Reminder: CA-US land border remains closed for the next 30 days (from 21 April), this is a further extension from the initial 30 day closure on 20 March. Canada’s Federal Govt has suggested that they don’t foresee that the border will open anytime soon. A 14-day quarantine rule still remains in place for essential travellers returning to Canada.

• The number of Covid-19 cases in Canada continues to increase and has not yet peaked however, the growth is slowing. It's estimated that Canada's R rate is currently just over 1.

• Update - Easing of Restrictions: British Columbia has started to reopen the economy but will continue to open with caution. Physical distancing is going to be key. Will not receive visitors from other provinces yet.

• Airlines: Air Canada have announced that their summer 2020 schedule to Scotland (EDI & GLA) has been fully suspended meaning Air Canada will not directly serve Scotland until 2021 at the earliest. WestJet has announced a further suspension to their services through to 5 July. Air Transat has further suspended flights until 30 June.

• Update – Keep it Clean: Hilton offer digital locks on their bedrooms but looking at further steps to reduce staff contact while Best Western Hotels & Resorts are removing non essential items from bedrooms including decorative pillows, throws, pens/note pads. Hospitality commentators have said that breakfast buffets will need to change to follow physical distancing rules to include staff servers on hand to reduce risk of contamination.

• Update - Financial aid to airlines: Federal Govt announced a support for large employers (Airlines included) through the Large Employers Emergency Finance Facility (LEEFF). Ottawa is offering bridge financing for big Canadian businesses across all sectors but with conditions attached, including a requirement that companies receiving the loans disclose their environmental plans. PM Trudeau stressed that the program is a bridge loan program, not a "bailout”. Airlines are currently reviewing before announcing next steps.

13 May 2020

Market Update• China has entered into its first bilateral international travel agreement, allowing quicker and

easier travel between China and South Korea. China has eased quarantine requirements for some business travellers to revive essential economic activity. The new fast-track entry system came into effect on 1 May.

• S. Korean business travellers are now able to travel to 10 Chinese regions with minimized health screening and quarantine measures.

• Beijing is now pressing other countries for similar reciprocity as the number of Covid-19 cases declines in various parts of the world.

• Beijing lowered its emergency response from the top level to the second level starting April 30. The decision was made after the city had seen no new confirmed local or imported COVID-19 cases for 13 consecutive days.

• Shanghai lowered its response from second level to third level from 9 May. This allows for greater freedom of movement within cities and between various regions provided they're not 'high-risk' regions.

• Digital Health Codes still play a vital role in China's journey to opening up. A person with a 'green' QR codes has greater freedom of movement, safe in the knowledge that they are not infected/have been exposed to someone who is infected.

Consumers• The May golden week (1 – 5 May) saw 115 million trips (worth £5.42 billion GBP in revenue

for travel operators). The same period last year saw 195 million trips however this is an encouraging sign of recovery.

• Ctrip.com reported that their Golden Week performance in 2020 was 40% that of 2019 -however the weekly increase was 130%

• Flight and train bookings on Ctrip are 40% - 50% of 2019’s performance, however car rental bookings recovered to 90% of 2019's bookings potentially indicating preference for travelling independently.

• From a recent Ctrip online sales event, 57% of the audience were below 30 YO.• Over 50% of hotel pre-sale booking have been made with 5-star hotels.• 70% of bookings made by FITs on Ctrip.com are 5-star products.

AirlinesMany airlines have announced plans to resume their Chinese routes from June however the exact dates are pending CAAC approval. Below are current proposed resumption dates however these are subject to change. They do show positive intention to resume as early as possible.

• Air China released their international schedule for May – 10 European routes • Emirates currently scheduled to begin from Shanghai (1 Jun), Beijing (1 July) (and into

Glasgow 1 Jul and Edinburgh 1 Aug).• Qatar – Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai - by end June (Edinburgh,

London HR and Manchester by end June too)• Finnair after 30th June.• Turkish Airlines after 28th May.• British Airways – currently lists London HR – Beijing from 14 June and London HR – Shanghai

from June.

13 May 2020

• A slight upturn in 91+ days advanced bookings for flights and accommodation (below left and right respectively) in the EMEA area has been sustained over the past week, and we expect this to continue to rise over the coming weeks.

• Between 5 May to 11 May there were over 21K relevant mentions about Scotland and Coronavirus. Sunday 10 of May was the busiest day.

• Conversations increased by 423% compared to the previous week.

• This was driven solely by Nicola Sturgeon’s tweet regarding the PM’s new COVID-19 slogan. Of the 21k mentions 15k of them were retweets of the Scottish PM’s post.

• Even not counting the retweets Nicola Sturgeon monopolised the online conversations.

• The main conversation topics were:

• Nicola Sturgeon’s tweet along with her interview with Good Morning Britain where she explained why she has continued to enforce the 'stay at home' message in Scotland.

• Comments about the easing of the lockdown by Boris Johnson.

13 May 2020

Scotland and COVID-195th May to 11th May 2020

Then, we analysed online conversations about “travelling to Scotland” or “holiday in Scotland” that contained mentions of COVID-19, or coronavirus.

• 458 relevant mentions were identified under these premises.

• This is a 22% increase compared to the previous week.

• The main conversation topics are people:

• sharing their experiences with trip cancellations and refunds,

• talking about not being able to travel to Scotland at the moment and their plans to visit when the pandemic is over

• sharing their previous trips.

• 86% of the COVID-19 mentions about travelling to Scotland took place on social media sites (Instagram 36%, Twitter 50%).

• The rest of the conversations spread on forums, blogs and reviews sites as user share their experiences with trip cancellations or talk about their past holidays.

• Online sentiment is mostly neutral followed by positive as users have adjusted to the current situation.

• Negative chat is mainly driven by news events and users complaining about the difficulty to get refunds for events or trips.

Travelling to Scotland and COVID-195 May to 11 May 2020

Conversations about COVID-19 take place on social media sites (Instagram 11% and Twitter 86%).

• People use Instagram to share images of their past trips or the landscapes around them, showing their support to key workers and sharing how they spend time in lockdown.

• Similar themes can be found on Twitter, however this week was all about the new COVID-19 slogan and the Scottish PM’s response to it.

• Online sentiment is mostly neutral (80%) driven by retweets about Nicola Sturgeon’s tweet.

• Positive sentiment (13%) was driven by the community's sharing of positive messages.

• Negative conversations (7%) were driven by coronavirus death figures but also by people confused and worried about the mixed messaging they received from the Scottish and the UK government.

13 May 2020

• The table below compares 2019 and 2020 site traffic levels. The grey line represents the YoY difference. While traffic initially fell to a low of 75% less than the previous year, traffic to the site has slowly started to grow relative to the same week in 2019, with traffic levels now ~60% below the same period in 2019.

13 May 2020

• Since restarting posting after the start of lockdown (3 April onwards) 29% fewer people globally are engaging with our Facebook pages compared with the period from 1 Jan to 20 March. 15% fewer Scots are engaging with our page and 39% fewer English.

13 May 2020

The marketing teams at VisitScotland continue to play a key role in keeping Scotland top of mind with potential visitors of the future; and supporting our intermediary partners in destination training and planning new tours to Scotland. Visit our dedicated marketing response page on visitscotland.org, which will be updated regularly. The following sections have been updated:

• Working with intermediaries across our key markets• Content activity• Relationship marketing• PR activity and coverage• Social media activity

Objective:Keep yourself and Scotland safe

Messaging:Dream now, travel later

Activity:All paid and social activity pausedMessages of support to intermediariesIndustry support priority – new pages on VisitScotland.org

Objective:Reconnecting Scots with Scotland

Messaging:‘Only in Scotland’Scotland: Day tripsUK: Start planning tripIntl: Inspiration

Activity:Domestic day trip inspirationIntermediary destination training & content sharingPR inspirationVideo distribution via YouTube (UK)

Objective:Increase demand for short notice Scotland holidays

Messaging:‘Only in Scotland’UK: Book your tripIntl: Start planning your Scotland trip

Activity:UK & Intl inspirationVirtual intermediary workshops / webinarsPR inspirationVideo distribution via YouTube (UK/EU)UK campaignContent partnerships

Objective:Increase demand for 2021 Scotland holidays

Messaging:‘Only in Scotland’Book your trip to ScotlandMarket prioritisation

Activity:Virtual intermediary workshops / webinarsDestination training events Media fam trips / PRVideo distribution (YT)Campaign activityContent partnerships

Objective:Keep Scotland top of mind, build advocacy & trust

Messaging:‘Only in Scotland’Dream now, travel later

Activity:Absence video / socialArmchair travel –virtual tours on VisitScotland.comActivity to engage / inspireIntelligence gatheringVisitScotland.org extendedMarket/audience insight webinars for industry

13 May 2020

VisitScotland has published this report in good faith to update stakeholders on its activity. VisitScotland has taken all reasonable steps to confirm the information contained in the publication is correct. However, VisitScotland does not warrant or assume any legal liability for the accuracy of any information disclosed and accepts no responsibility for any error or omissions.Images: © VisitScotland

VisitScotlandOcean Point One94 Ocean DriveEdinburghEH6 6JHT: 0131 472 2222business.communications@visitscotland.comwww.visitscotland.org

VisitScotland.org | Visit our dedicated advice page for up to date information and advice on Coronavirus (COVID-19) for tourism businesses, including:

- Latest COVID-19 information and resources- Tourism industry FAQs- VisitScotland's response to COVID-19

Dedicated tourism industry advice | Our experienced team of Industry Relationship Managers can be reached at business.advice@visitscotland.com to help with any questions you have about business operations or marketing at this time.

Financial support advice | 0300 303 0660 | Contact the dedicated Scottish Enterprise business support line. Open Monday - Friday between 8.30am and 5.30pm or go to findbusinesssupport.gov.scot/coronavirus-advice

Industry newsletter | Stay up to date with the latest regional and national news by signing up to VisitScotland's Tourism Insider newsletter at visitscotland.org/news

Social media | Stay in touch with the latest from VisitScotland on Linkedin or Twitter

• Contact business advice team: business.advice@visitscotland.com

• Travel trade enquiries: traveltrade@visitscotland.com

• Sharing virtual tours or web cams: content@visitscotland.com

• Information on new experiences you’re developing: marketing@visitscotland.com

• Advice regarding insights: research@visitscotland.com