“Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner –

““Dinero Diablos”Dinero Diablos”

Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics

April 21, 2010

Presented by:

Mark RobertsonFounder and Managing Partner –

www.manifestinvesting.com

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Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero DiablosDashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos

Club History & CharacteristicsClub History & Characteristics

Club Name: “Dinero Diablos”

Location: Northern California

# of Members: 16 (All-Male)

Founded: TBD

The club uses a set of rules for selling: (1) Sell Zone, (2) Sales/EPS stagnant 3-4 quarters, (3) U/D = 1,

(4) Relative Value > 150%, (5) <5-7% Total Return, (6) Down trends in margins, (7) Stock

price decline for no apparent reason.

Simplify. Treat decisions from a total portfolio perspective. Core holdings: Sell if PAR is less than money market rates. Non-Core holdings: Sell if PAR is less than market average.

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50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Quality

3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%

Sales Growth

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

PAR

Dashboard View: (1) Returns, (2) Quality, (3) GrowthDashboard View: (1) Returns, (2) Quality, (3) Growth

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Sector Diversification

Cash3%Energy

7%Staples

6%

Communications6%

Discretionary17%

Technology7%

Industrials11%

Financials

Healthcare40%

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Number of Holdings (Stocks)

% o

f T

ota

l A

sset

s

Position Size Range Recommendations …Position Size Range Recommendations …

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Challenge: EZCORP (EZPW) ... Auto-Sell?Challenge: EZCORP (EZPW) ... Auto-Sell?

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Summary (Points of View): EZCORP (EZPW) Summary (Points of View): EZCORP (EZPW) MANIFEST Value Line S&P Morningstar

Return Forecast 1.6% ($22.70) -1% [1] ($17.75)

Quality 59.3 B

Financial Strength

57 (5% of Capital @

6.22%)

B++ A

Growth Forecast 14% 8.5% (per sh)

Profitability 11.9% (Net)

14.6% (ROE)

12.9% (Net)

Valuation 10.0x 10.0x 10.7x ($17.70)

Overall Rating Weak Hold (48)

StockCharts RSI = 65.9 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $24) CASPI = 97.8% April 21, 2010

[1] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

StockCharts RSI = 65.9 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $24) CASPI = 97.8% April 21, 2010

[1] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

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Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW)Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW)

1. We’ve added 2010E and 2011E (ACE). 2. Note the “bends”, lower expectations for 2011 ... Cycle characteristics? 3. Note the

shift in shares outstanding in 2009.

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Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW)Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW)

1. Switching to Sales/share. 2. 5-Year historical growth aligns with VL. 3. VL forecasts a decline to 8.5% (influence of 2011?)

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0%

5%

10%

15%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Net Margin

Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)

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Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)

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Valuation Characteristic and Trend (EZPW)Valuation Characteristic and Trend (EZPW)

A projected average P/E in the realm of 10x seems pretty reasonable.

10 Years

5 Years

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[Modified] Preferred Procedure (EZPW)[Modified] Preferred Procedure (EZPW)

Sales (Trailing 12-Mo) 673

X Net Margin (%) 11.9%

/ Shares (M) 48.7

Earnings Per Share $1.65

X P/E Ratio 13.8x

Stock Price (4/20/2010) $22.70

Income Statement (4/21/2010)

Income Statement (4/21/2015)

Sales 1268

X Net Margin (%) 12%

/ Shares (M) 52.0

Earnings Per Share $2.93

X P/E Ratio (Proj Avg) 10.0x

Stock Price $29.30

@ 13.5%

5.2%

+ 0.0% (Ann. Yield)

5.2% = Projected Annual Return (PAR)

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Technical Analysis (EZPW)Technical Analysis (EZPW)

Institutions hold 78.9% of shares

A single individual holds 100% of voting shares.

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Ask the Audience: Would you sell EZPW?Ask the Audience: Would you sell EZPW?

Yes, Sell!Yes, Sell!

No. Hold, I feel lots of No. Hold, I feel lots of momentum with this one.momentum with this one.

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Any holdings qualified as accumulation targets?Any holdings qualified as accumulation targets?

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Accumulation Candidate: FTI Consulting (FCN)Accumulation Candidate: FTI Consulting (FCN)

Growth=11% Profitability=10% P/E=18x ... PAR ~20% QR=74.7

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Accumulation Candidate: ITT Educational (ESI)Accumulation Candidate: ITT Educational (ESI)

Growth=16% Profitability=21% P/E=17x ... PAR ~19% QR=78.5

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Add 100 shares of FCN and 40 shares of ESI ...Add 100 shares of FCN and 40 shares of ESI ...

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Sold EZPW, Added ESI & FCN ... And Bought ORCLSold EZPW, Added ESI & FCN ... And Bought ORCL

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Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture.Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture.

Before. After.

Converting the challenge stock to cash and accumulating a couple of high-return (high-quality) holdings with some non-healthcare

shopping nudges the portfolio in the right direction.

Documents

“Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner –