DIGITAL ORIGINAL SERIES - Parrot Analytics€¦ · Snatch Crackle Drama March 16 Marvel's Iron Fist Netflix Drama March 17 Samurai Gourmet Netflix Drama March 17 Me And My Grandma

Copyright © 2017 Parrot Analytics. All rights reserved.

1st Quarter, 2017

DIGITAL ORIGINAL SERIES

Global Demand Report


https://www.parrotanalytics.com/?utm_source=global-demand-report&utm_campaign=2017-q1&utm_medium=pdf

Digital Original Series — Global Demand Report | Q1, 2017

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The Grand Tour

United KingdomSweden

GermanyJapan

Australia

Stranger Things

United States Russia

Black Mirror Orange IsThe New Black

France

Club De Cuervos

Mexico

The OA

Brazil

Top Digital Original Series in Q1 2017

} For the first time, a non-Netflix show dominated the top digital originals around the world. Amazon Video’s The Grand Tour was the most popular digital original series in five out of these ten markets.

} The wins by Netflix’s The Crown and Amazon Video’s Goliath at the Golden Globes resulted in their demand increasing by 50% and 123% on average, respectively. This effect was generally strongest in the English-speaking markets.

} Though Stranger Things was only the top digital original series in the United States, the surprise announcement of its season two release date caused an average spike in demand of 262% in all ten markets.

} Some titles that were unpopular in their home market found international fan bases. For example, Hulu’s Chance was within the top ten digital originals in Sweden, Brazil, and Japan. Likewise, the overall most in-demand series, The Grand Tour, was less popular in Brazil and France.

Executive Summary



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Contents

Introduction 4

Quarterly Events 5

Demand Trends for Digital Original Series by Market 7

Methodology 28

About Parrot Analytics 29



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Introduction

Demand as the new paradigmIn the sixth edition of Parrot Analytics ’ Digital Original Series Global Demand Report, the demand for 30 recent and popular digital original series in ten global markets is analyzed. The digital original series included in the report are original content produced by US-based SVOD platforms, including the major services Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon, as well as smaller players YouTube Red and NBC's Seeso. As these titles can play a key role in the success of these platforms, but their viewership numbers are kept a closely-guarded secret, the purpose of this report is to provide the industry with insights into the demand for these shows, backed by empirical data for the first time.

With the rapid proliferation of content distribution platforms and the unprecedented levels of consumer fragmentation, existing measurement services in the industry are falling increasingly short around the globe.

The solution to the industry’s difficulty in navigating the cross-platform fragmentation is through measuring global content demand. Demand for content is what drives consumption on all platforms — linear and OTT alike. Consumers express their demand for content through multiple “demand expression platforms” including video streaming platforms, social media platforms, photo sharing platforms, blogging and microblogging platforms, fan and critic rating

platforms, peer-to-peer protocols and file sharing platforms. Parrot Analytics captures the expressions of demand from these sources and combines them, using the power of advanced artificial intelligence, into a single measure of demand. Therefore, measuring this demand enables Parrot Analytics to wield the industry’s most powerful metric linking consumers and content across the globe.

With this measure of demand, a vast array of analyses become possible. Demand is country-specific, meaning that the differences in demand for content between markets can be empirically measured even if that content has not yet been officially released in that market. Demand is also platform-agnostic: while performance metrics may be available for certain titles on linear TV, Parrot Analytics’ demand metric reaches all content, from the popular broadcast programs to obscure cable titles to SVOD digital original series, on which very little data has been released. Knowing the demand for all this content allows content acquisition, licensing and advertising decisions to be made based on empirical data, with a full picture of the state of content demand in any given market. In an industry traditionally guided by intuition and gut feelings, gaining insights into the actual demand for content, no matter the platform or market, is a definite competitive advantage.




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Quarterly Events

OTT news

On March 17th, the latest entry in Marvel’s originals on Netflix, Iron Fist, was released. Despite poor reviews, it was the most in-demand digital original series for three weeks after its premiere.

The 74th Golden Globes were held on January 8th, with wins for several digital original series:

} The Crown won for Best Television Series — Drama, beating fellow Netflix series Stranger Things.

} Claire Foy from The Crown won Best Actress in a Television Drama, and Billy Bob Thornton from Amazon Video’s Goliath won for Best Actor in a Television Drama.

Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee Crackle Reality January 5–February 9

The UCB Show Seeso Sketch Comedy January 12

Trailer Park Boys Netflix Comedy March 31

The Path Hulu Drama January 25– April 12

Foursome YouTube Red Drama February 1

The Cyanide & Happiness Show Seeso Comedy February 2

The Grand Tour Amazon Video Reality through February 3

The Mindy Project Hulu Comedy through March 28

Chef’s Table Netflix Documentary February 17

Hand Of God Amazon Video Drama March 10

Love Netflix Comedy March 10

The Last Kingdom Netflix Drama March 21

Grace And Frankie Netflix Comedy March 24

Existing digital original series aired new episodes during the quarter:



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Quarterly Events

One Day At A Time Netflix Comedy January 6

Mind Field YouTube Red Reality January 8

Lemony Snicket's A Series Of Unfortunate Events Netflix Drama January 13

Sneaky Pete Amazon Video Drama January 13

Squad Wars YouTube Red Comedy January 26

Z: The Beginning Of Everything Amazon Video Drama January 27

Zoolander: Super Model Crackle Comedy January 27

Santa Clarita Diet Netflix Comedy February 3

Abstract: The Art of Design Netflix Documentary February 10

My Brother, My Brother And Me Seeso Comedy February 23

Ultimate Beastmaster Netflix Reality February 24

Patriot Amazon Video Comedy-drama February 24

Ingobernable Netflix Drama March 4

Snatch Crackle Drama March 16

Marvel's Iron Fist Netflix Drama March 17

Samurai Gourmet Netflix Drama March 17

Me And My Grandma YouTube Red Comedy March 22

Harlots Hulu Drama March 29

13 Reasons Why Netflix Drama March 31

Five Came Back Netflix Documentary March 31

New digital original series released during the quarter:



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Demand for Digital Original Series by Market

For each of the ten markets, the 30 digital original series are ranked by their average Demand Expressions® from January through March, 2017. A time series plot illustrates interesting demand trends over the last three months. Lastly, an analysis of this information is presented.



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January 1st –March 31st , 2017

Demand Over Time in the United States

Though it was released in July 2016, Stranger Things remained the most in-demand digital original series into the first quarter of 2017. It enjoyed a 257% overnight increase in popularity after the release date for season 2 was announced during the Super Bowl on February 5th.

After their wins at the Golden Globes on January 8th, both Amazon Video’s Goliath and Netflix’s The Crown more than doubled in demand overnight. Stranger Things, which was nominated, also had a 90% increase on the day after the awards ceremony.

The third season of Netflix comedy Grace and Frankie was released on March 24th. This event resulted in a 483% increase in demand, making it the most popular digital original series for the remainder of March.

In contrast, the second season of Hulu’s The Path premiered on January 25th, airing episodes weekly until April 12th. This release strategy is unusual for digital originals, but The Path benefited from this schedule: demand remained steady and 228% higher for the entire two months after its premiere than in early January.

50 M

40 M

30 M

20 M

10 Million

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®

February MarchJanuary 2017

The Path

Season 3 released

Grace and FrankieMar 24

The Crown

Won Golden Globes Weekly episodes startJan 8

Stranger Things

Season 2 releasedate announced

Feb 5

Goliath

Won Golden GlobeJan 8 Jan 25

Demand Expressions®: the total audience demand being expressed for a title, within a country, on any platform.



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January 1st –March 31st , 2017 | Average Demand Expressions®

The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in the United States:


Stranger Things Netflix Science Fiction 10,457,855

The OA Netflix Drama 9,115,511

The Grand Tour Amazon Video Reality 8,978,791

The Man In The High Castle Amazon Video Drama 8,875,885

Marvel's Luke Cage Netflix Drama 7,230,928

Orange Is The New Black Netflix Comedy-drama 6,347,805

House Of Cards Netflix Drama 5,616,202

The Crown Netflix Drama 5,240,756

The Path Hulu Drama 5,170,431

Fuller House Netflix Comedy 5,057,878

Haters Back Off Netflix Comedy 4,069,335

Black Mirror Netflix Science Fiction 3,038,055

The Ranch Netflix Comedy 2,828,686

Goliath Amazon Video Drama 2,801,342

Chance Hulu Drama 2,384,648

Grace And Frankie Netflix Comedy 2,234,379

The Mindy Project Hulu Comedy 2,086,288

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Netflix Comedy 1,984,513

Transparent Amazon Video Comedy-drama 1,834,661

BoJack Horseman Netflix Animation 1,831,382

Mozart In The Jungle Amazon Video Comedy-drama 1,696,257

Love Netflix Comedy 1,672,364

Club De Cuervos Netflix Comedy-drama 1,355,331

Shut Eye Hulu Drama 1,294,179

Hand Of God Amazon Video Drama 1,193,368

Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee Crackle Reality 1,121,222

Red Oaks Amazon Video Comedy 950,133

3% Netflix Drama 782,550

Foursome YouTube Red Drama 212,730

Bajillion Dollar Propertie$ Seeso Comedy 167,471

Top Digital Original Series in the United States



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12 M

10 M

8 M

6 M

4M

2 Million

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


House of Cards

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

The Crown

Won Golden GlobesJan 8

Stranger Things


Feb 5Season 5 releasedate announced

Jan 20

Goliath

Won Golden GlobeJan 8

Amazon Video’s The Grand Tour was the most popular digital original title in five of these ten markets. In the United Kingdom, it had the greatest lead over the second-placed show with 137% more demand than Stranger Things, which is logical as it is the hosts’ home country.

The only instance of another digital original series having more demand than The Grand Tour was on February 6th, the day after the release date of Stranger Things season two was announced. Stranger Things’ 214% spike in demand was smaller than the spike in the United States, but it had 24% more demand than The Grand Tour for a single day.

The Golden Globe-winning titles, Goliath and The Crown, had overnight increases in demand after their win, but to a lesser extent than in the United States. Though The Crown is about the British royal family it had the least increase in demand after the Golden Globes, likely because it was already well-known in the market and so did not benefit as much from the exposure as the lesser-known Goliath.

The release date of the fifth season of House of Cards was announced on January 20th, causing an overnight increase in demand by 159%.

Demand Over Time in the United Kingdom



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The Crown Netflix Drama 1,847,018




Haters Back Off Netflix Comedy 851,169

Black Mirror Netflix Science Fiction 603,820

The Path Hulu Drama 530,786

Goliath Amazon Video Drama 495,531

The Mindy Project Hulu Comedy 451,628

Grace And Frankie Netflix Comedy 414,858

BoJack Horseman Netflix Animation 414,192

Chance Hulu Drama 398,235

Love Netflix Comedy 370,616

Fuller House Netflix Comedy 328,950

Transparent Amazon Video Comedy-drama 319,108

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Netflix Comedy 308,509

The Ranch Netflix Comedy 250,470


Hand Of God Amazon Video Drama 208,888

Mozart In The Jungle Amazon Video Comedy-drama 206,539

Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee Crackle Reality 167,507

Shut Eye Hulu Drama 130,841


Club De Cuervos Netflix Comedy-drama 33,797



The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in the United Kingdom:

Top Digital Original Series in the United Kingdom



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3.5 M

3 M

2.5 M

2 M

1.5 M

1 Million

500 K

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


The OA

Renewed for Season 2

LoveStranger Things


Feb 5

Hand of God

Season 2 releasedMar 10

Season 2 releasedMar 10 Feb 8

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

As in the United Kingdom, The Grand Tour was the most popular digital original series in Australia. Each episode, airing weekly from January 6th to February 3rd, had a clear spike in demand; the penultimate episode was most popular but the finale was least popular.

Stranger Things more than tripled in demand after the release date of the second season was announced on February 5th. The show remained in high demand for several weeks, suggesting that the announcement inspired people to watch or re-watch the series.

While The Grand Tour and The OA began the year with about the same amount of demand, the fact that The Grand Tour aired new episodes through January meant that its demand remained high while demand for The OA fell over the quarter, only stabilizing in March.

The second seasons of Netflix’s Love and Amazon Video’s Hand of God were both released on March 10th. Though Love had 186% more demand than Hand of God before their releases, demand for Hand of God grew by over 900% after its premiere, while Love only grew by 575%.

Demand Over Time in Australia



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Stranger Things Netflix Science Fiction 820,534

Orange Is The New Black Netflix Comedy-drama 733,422

The OA Netflix Drama 699,690

The Crown Netflix Drama 589,445

The Man In The High Castle Amazon Video Drama 523,006

House Of Cards Netflix Drama 464,196

Marvel's Luke Cage Netflix Drama 341,006























The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Australia:

Top Digital Original Series in Australia



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10 M

8 M

6 M

4 M

2 Million

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


The OA

Renewed for Season 2

Orange Is The New Black Stranger Things



Feb 5

Black MirrorFeb 8 Feb 8

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

Netflix’s long-running Orange Is The New Black was the most in-demand digital original series in France, with 83% more average demand than the runner-up, Black Mirror. Though the series has not aired since June 2016, it is so popular in this market that demand is already increasing in anticipation of season five in June 2017.

In contrast, Black Mirror began January with the most demand, but declined steadily over the quarter to end March with less demand than Stranger Things.

As in other markets, demand for Stranger Things more than doubled after its second season announcement. However, the series remained in high demand for the rest of the quarter, spiking in demand again on March 3rd and 25th, possibly due to rumors around David Harbor in Deadpool 2 and the soundtrack’s release, respectively.

Series that were among the top five in the English-speaking countries, such as The OA and The Grand Tour, had less demand in France, where they ranked several places lower.

Demand Over Time in France



15
































Bajillion Dollar Propertie$ Seeso Comedy 609

Foursome YouTube Red Drama 70

The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in France:

Top Digital Original Series in France



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16 M

12 M

8 M

4 Million

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


The Man In The High CastleRed OaksJan 30

Hand of God

Season 2 releasedMar 10 Jan 3

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

House of Cards


Jan 20Renewed forfinal Season

Renewed forSeason 3

The Grand Tour was the most popular digital original title during the first quarter of 2017, followed by fellow Amazon Video series The Man In The High Castle. As a result, Germany was the only market where a Netflix series did not rank first or second by average demand.

Though The Man In The High Castle was released on December 16th and renewed on January 3rd, it peaked in demand during mid-January and had about the same demand as The Grand Tour after the latter show finished airing in February. This result suggests that viewers who came to Amazon Video for The Grand Tour also watched The Man In The High Castle, increasing its demand. This effect may also have lifted demand for other Amazon titles, such as Red Oaks.

Another Amazon Video series, Hand Of God, aired its final season on March 10th, resulting in a 480% increase in demand.

The most popular non-Amazon series, House Of Cards, had a 127% spike in popularity after the release date of its fifth season was announced on January 20th.

Demand Over Time in Germany



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The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Germany:

Top Digital Original Series in the Germany



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800 K

600 K

400 K

200,000

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


Comedians In CarsGetting Coffee

Weekly episodes



Feb 5

Chance


Feb 8Jan 5–Feb 9 Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

The Grand Tour was again the most in-demand digital original series, with 91% more popularity than Orange Is The New Black. While demand for The Grand Tour declined over the quarter, especially after it finished airing in early February, demand for Orange Is The New Black increased gradually over the same time period.

Stranger Things was the most popular digital original on only one day: February 6th, the day after the announcement of season two’s release date.

Crackle’s Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee had a large spike in demand after its ninth season began airing on January 5th, but only a small bump on January 27th when it was announced the show would move to Netflix.

Hulu’s Chance, starring Hugh Laurie, aired from October to December 2016. Though it ranked poorly in most markets, it was within the top 10 digital original series in Sweden, Brazil, and Japan this quarter. This popularity illustrates how, due to their distribution method, digital original series can find fan bases anywhere around the world.

Demand Over Time in Sweden



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The Grand Tour Amazon Video Reality 468,440


Stranger Things Netflix Science Fiction 152,309


























Club De Cuervos Netflix Comedy-drama 428


The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Sweden:

Top Digital Original Series in Sweden



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12 M

10 M

8 M

6 M

4 M

2 Million

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


Red OaksLuke CageBlack Mirror

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

The Path

Weekly episodes startJan 25

Renewed forfinal Season

Jan 30

Due to the decline in demand after The Grand Tour ended in early February, the steadily in-demand Black Mirror had the highest average demand this quarter in Russia.

Though it aired in September 2016, Marvel’s Luke Cage had a resurgence in demand after the release of its sister series, Iron Fist, on March 17th. People who watched the new Marvel series may have gone back to watch or re-watch past entries, and given that Luke Cage was more well-received critically than Iron Fist, they continued to watch the better series.

Hulu’s The Path gained a following in Russia over its second season, as demand increased from its premiere on January 25th through the end of March. At its peaks, The Path had more demand than Luke Cage or The Grand Tour.

Amazon Video’s Red Oaks had an unusual demand pattern in late February and early March. The spikes in popularity every few days suggests that it was being promoted heavily or airing episodes sequentially on a platform.

Demand Over Time in Russia



21











BoJack Horseman Netflix Animation 1,439,463























The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Russia:

Top Digital Original Series in Russia



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25 M

20 M

15 M

10 M

5 Million

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®


Club De Cuervos Stranger Things


Feb 5

Black Mirror

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

House of Cards


Jan 20

The Spanish-language Club De Cuervos was by far the most in-demand series in Mexico, with nearly 250% more average demand than Black Mirror, the next-most popular title. Since the second season was released on December 9th the show’s demand decreased, but it still ended the quarter with more than double the popularity of all other digital originals.

Black Mirror and The Grand Tour began the year with about the same level of demand, but after The Grand Tour ended in February its demand slowly fell. However, demand for Black Mirror, which last aired in October, had plateaued and so remained steady, making it the second-most popular show on average.

Though demand for Stranger Things spiked by over 350% after the announcement of the second season airdate, it did not come close to matching the popularity of Club De Cuervos.

House of Cards had about the same demand as Stranger Things and the announcement of its fifth season release date had the same increase as the same event for Stranger Things, indicating that these two series are equal in popularity in Mexico.

Demand Over Time in Mexico



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Club De Cuervos Netflix Comedy-drama 11,922,872






























The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Mexico:

Top Digital Original Series in Mexico



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20 M

15 M

10 M

5 M

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®




Feb 5

3%


Feb 8Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

The OA

Renewed for Season 2Feb 8

Brazil was the only market where The OA, which was released on December 16th, had the highest average demand during the first quarter of 2017. However, it was a close race as The OA had only 6% more demand than runner-up Stranger Things.

The Portuguese-language series 3% fell in demand during January since it was first released on November 25th. Demand stabilized over the rest of the quarter, but spiked at the same time as Stranger Things; perhaps popularity was boosted for all science fiction series.

Orange Is The New Black was the third-most popular series this quarter with steady demand and periodic spikes.

Unlike all other markets, Amazon’s The Grand Tour did not rank within the top five digital original series in Brazil: demand for the series did not spike during the episodes, nor decline after the show ended in early February.

Demand Over Time in Brazil



25







3% Netflix Drama 2,350,159






The Grand Tour Amazon Video Reality 952,178





















The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Brazil:

Top Digital Original Series in Brazil



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8 M

6 M

4 M

2 M

0

DEM

AND

EXP

RESS

ION

S®

Shut eye

Season 2 ordered

Stranger Things


Feb 5

ChanceMar 20

Weekly episodes end

The Grand TourFeb 3

Red Oaks

Renewed forfinal Season

Jan 30

The Grand Tour was the most popular digital original series in Japan, with 67% more demand than the second-most in-demand show, Stranger Things.

The second season airdate announcement for Stranger Things resulted in a spike in demand, as in all other markets, but demand also increased during March.

Some titles were more popular in Japan than in other markets, such as Amazon Video’s Red Oaks at rank 12, Hulu’s Chance at rank 9, and Hulu’s Shut Eye at rank 5. These shows have a stronger fan base in this market than in the United States, their home market, illustrating that a global view should be taken when considering the popularity of titles.

The two non-English titles in this report, 3% and Club De Cuervos, had less than a third of the demand for the next-lowest ranked title, Seeso’s Bajillion Dollar Propertie$; only YouTube Red’s Foursome had less demand. This result indicates that non-English content may not find success outside of their home markets.

Demand Over Time in Japan



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Shut Eye Hulu Drama 1,060,232


























The table below contains a selection of the most in-demand Digital Original Series in Japan:

Top Digital Original Series in Japan



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Methodology

Global Demand MeasurementTo solve the industry’s measurement challenge with the rapid proliferation of content distribution platforms and unprecedented levels of consumer fragmentation, Parrot Analytics has developed the world’s first and only cross-platform, country-specific and real-time content Demand Measurement System, powered by Demand Expressions®.

Global Content DemandParrot Analytics is a technology and data science company that measures global demand for television content.

Consumers express their demand for content through various “demand expression platforms” including:

} Video Streaming Platforms } Social Media Platforms } Photo Sharing Platforms } Blogging & Microblogging Platforms } Fan & Critic Rating Platforms } Wikis & Informational Sites } Peer-to-Peer Protocols } File-Sharing Platforms

Industry-first: DemandRankTM

Parrot Analytics captures cross-platform audience demand for content around the world. Audience demand reflects the desire, engagement and viewership, weighted by importance: a stream or a download is a higher expression of demand than a passive impression or a comment.

Demand Expressions® The industry’s de facto measure of global content demand. This metric measures the total audience demand being expressed for a title, within a market.

Characteristics of Demand Expressions®:

} They measure actual, expressed demand. Parrot Analytics does not use panel data.

} They encompass demand expressed by audiences from a multitude of sources, weighted by importance.

} There is no ceiling to how many Demand Expressions® a title can generate in a market.

BloggingSites

SocialMedia

Fan & CriticRating Sites

Wikis &Informational

Sites

Microblogging Sites

Video StreamingSites

Photo Sharing Sites

File Sharing /P2P Platforms



About Parrot Analytics


In any Market, on any Platform

Daily Audience Demand Measurement

REQUEST DEMO

Parrot Analytics is a data science company that empowers media & entertainment companies, brands and agencies to understand global audience demand for television content. Wielding the world’s largest audience behavior data sets, the company has developed the world’s only global cross-platform, country- specific audience demand measurement system.

Parrot Analytics captures an unprecedented spectrum of actual fan and audience behavior including video streaming consumption, social media, blogging platforms, file-sharing and peer-to-peer consumption spanning 249 countries. This enables media companies, for the very first time, to understand audience demand for content across all content distribution platforms in all markets around the world.

Parrot Analytics’ leadership includes a group of media industry executives, creatives and scientists who believe in the magic of content and the impact it has on people’s lives. The company is on a mission to connect content creators and consumers by enabling data-driven decisions across the industry.

For more information, visit parrotanalytics.com

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DIGITAL ORIGINAL SERIES - Parrot Analytics€¦ · Snatch Crackle Drama March 16 Marvel's Iron Fist Netflix Drama March 17 Samurai Gourmet Netflix Drama March 17 Me And My Grandma