Queensland Government Enterprise Architecture

Horizon scanDigital and ICT strategic planning framework

Final

October 2018

v1.0.0

OFFICIAL - Public

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

Document details

Security classification OFFICIAL - Public

Date of review of security classification

October 2018

Authority Queensland Government Chief Information Officer

Author Queensland Government Chief Information Office

Documentation status Working draft Consultation release Final version

Contact for enquiries and proposed changesAll enquiries regarding this document should be directed in the first instance to:

Queensland Government Chief Information Officeqgcio@qgcio.qld.gov.au

AcknowledgementsThis version of the Digital and ICT strategic planning framework was developed and updated by Queensland Government Chief Information Office.

Feedback was also received from a number of agencies, which was greatly appreciated.

CopyrightDigital and ICT strategic planning framework

© The State of Queensland (Queensland Government Chief Information Office) 2018

Licence

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. To view the terms of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. For permissions beyond the scope of this licence, contact qgcio@qgcio.qld.gov.au.

To attribute this material, cite the Queensland Government Chief Information Office.

The licence does not apply to any branding or images.

Information securityThis document has been security classified using the Queensland Government Information Security Classification Framework (QGISCF) as OFFICAL - Public and will be managed according to the requirements of the QGISCF.

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

PurposeHorizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential opportunities and likely future developments including those that challenge current thinking. Horizon scanning explores new and unexpected trends and possibilities. This guideline broadly describes how to conduct horizon scanning with respect to trends in service delivery and service models.

AudienceA practitioner in the context of this guideline can include one or more of the following roles:

Digital and ICT strategic planners Agency and service strategic planners Workforce planners Enterprise architects Business analysts Information managers.

DisruptionThe term disruption is commonly used across Government. Disruption is something that causes transformation or is the result of a transformation initiative. Four key elements of disruption (Gartner Inc, 2017). These are summarised in the figure below.

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public

The activities in this guideline will provide the practitioner with an understanding of the business trends that may influence the strategic direction of the organisation or transform the way in which future services could be provided.

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

Figure 1 - Elements of Disruption

Horizon scanningThis guideline focusses on horizon scanning for trends impacting service delivery in relation to business, industry and society. The approaches outlined can be applied to investigate opportunities across all these elements.

Horizon scanning implies a search process aimed at identifying emerging issues and events which may present themselves as opportunities.

Horizon scanning has two main purposes; an alerting function and a creative function. The altering function highlights anticipate and emerging opportunities that will probably need attention. The creative function is used to create innovative ideas or opportunities based on the analysis of data. The creative function may require further engagement of stakeholders and generate ideas and identify what is possible.

Some of the concepts and methods applied to horizon scanning include exploratory scanning and issues centred scanning.

Exploratory scanningExploratory scanning involves searching for information or developments with no specific framework or potential emerging issues or trends in mind. The aim is to identify an extensive list of potential issues and trends, within the broad boundaries of the policy domain selected (e.g. Health, Education, Environment)

The practitioner may end up with substantial amounts of data, research and information that can be clustered or grouped. It may therefore be necessary to tag data, and research as part of the scanning process.

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public

For guidance relating to technology disruptors, refer to the guideline Discover: Technology Trends.

Using a health related example there may be trends in:Business - Increased demand for services to the elderely due increases in the aged population.Industry - New developments in models of care outside of hospitals.Society - Increased interest of consumers in better managing their own healthcare.

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

Exploratory scanning involves at least four key steps including:

1. Setting a high-level search profile that is only lightly focused using keywords.

2. Using various sources on information including blogs, reports, literature and even conference materials regarding the search profile

3. Assessment of issues and trends to determine the plausibility and strength of the research and data.

4. Grouping of issues and trends into themes.

Issues centred scanningThe issues centred approach involves evaluating a hypothesis. A hypothesis may come from any of the elements of disruption. It begins with a wide range of existing and potential emerging opportunities and then seeking information to strengthen or disprove the hypothesis.

A frame of reference is conceptualised for chosen domains and may include articles or presentations by an author or group of authors that describe a future narrative.

There may be strong scientific articles, statistical analysis or trend report reports to support the analysis. There may also be recommendations as part of the narrative that describe how to address the opportunity and the reduce any negative impacts. This information may be useful when considering the objectives, strategies and roadmaps in the later planning activities.

The information collected through horizon scanning can be carried forward into the planning process as strategic drivers and environmental influences that will shape the formulation of objectives and strategies.

The information highlighted in horizon scanning may also identify associated technology trends that will underpin realisation of a hypothesis or theme.

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public

Identify some credible sources of information relevant to the policy domain in which your organisation operates (e.g. Health, Education, Environment). Ensure the whole team has central access to thsoe resources for research and planning purposes. These resources may even include statistical and report information from within your own agency.

Using a transport example, by the year X, Y% of cars and Z% of trucks on Australian roads will be driverless.

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

WorkforceThe external environment also needs to be scanned to identify business, industry and cultural factors and trends that may impact on the agency’s direction with respect to the workforce. The aim is to develop a good understanding of the key drivers that may affect the future supply and demand for labour for the agency. The Queensland Government supports a dedicated ICT workforce planning methodology. This methodology outlines two methods for conducting a horizon scan including:

STEEP analysis – consideration of demographic, social/cultural, technological, environmental, economic and political/legal factors

SWOT analysis – a review and analysis of the organisation's internal and external strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Practitioners involved with workforce planning components should familiarise themselves with this methodology. A number of key questions out outlined to consider when exploring when reviewing organisation direction and external environment including:

What are the organisation’s current and future business, work functions and activities?

How might the future business, work functions and activities impact the agency’s workforce composition and competencies?

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public

Refer to the guideline Discover: digital and technology trends for more information regarding scanning of digital disruptors.

A link to the Queensland Government ICT workforce planning methodology is provided in the Resources section of this guideline.

Refer to the guideline Vision: vision for more information regarding SWOT analysis.

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

What are the anticipated changes over the planning period? How is technology expected to change and how will these changes influence the

type and number of jobs available and the skills and education needed for these jobs?

What is the impact of current or future government regulations (such as affirmative action and equal employment opportunity)?

How is the economy performing both locally and nationally? What are the sources of competition for attracting people (salary, benefit packages,

etc.)? What other trends may impact the agency (such as trends towards decentralisation,

outsourcing or restructuring)?

Next stepsThe results of environmental scanning should be used as part of visioning activities with the business representatives and can be incorporated into presentations conducted as part of planning workshops. It may be useful to present the results of environmental scanning as a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis for example.

Visioning is where the creative elements of environmental scanning come into play working with stakeholders defining what might be possible based on research.

Horizon scanning may also help to provide a narrative for digital and or ICT strategy or plan regarding how customers and consumers access and use services and information, how the workforce will work, collaborate and engage as well as how information can be shared with service partners.

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public

Refer guideline Vision: Vision for more information on SWOT analysis as well as working with stakeholders to define an end state for the delivery of services.

What does the day in the life of a patient, clinician, student, teacher or police officer look like in X years. How will they interface with other poeple as well as access and use information.

QGEA OFFICIAL - Public Horizon scan

Resources

Resource Link

Queensland Government ICT workforce planning methodology

Overview - https://www.qgcio.qld.gov.au/information-on/workforce-planningMethodology - https://www.qgcio.qld.gov.au/information-on/workforce-planning/ict-workforce-planning-methodology

ReferencesAmanatidou, A., Butter, M., Carabias, V., Konnola, T., Leis, M., Schaper-Rinkel, P., & Van Rij, V.

(2012). On concepts and methods in horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public Policy, 208-221.

Gartner Inc. (2017, May 25). Research Notes. Retrieved from Digital Disruption and the New Disruptors: Recognise Prioritise and Respond: https://www.gartner.com/document/3723452?ref=TypeAheadSearch&qid=e97f2a8c39cf90ce5e87a18cb

Final | v1.0.0 | October 2018 Page OFFICIAL - Public