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Questions addressed in EFG analysis Young (22-32) childless women (& men): what differentials in desire for having at least 1 child? Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to first birth? Women (& men) with 1 child: what differentials in desire for having a 2nd child? Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to second birth? Women (& men) with 2 children: what differentials in desire for having a 3rd child? Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to third birth?
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Differentials in desires and realisation: 1st, 2nd and 3rd child
Marion Burkimsher
Data sources used previously
Human fertility database (country comparison)
Swiss birth registration (BEVNAT)
Swiss census 2000 (biological children, years born)
Swiss Household Panel
European Social Survey
Fertility and Family Survey (Switzerland 1994)
Questions addressed in EFG analysis
• Young (22-32) childless women (& men): what differentials in desire for having at least 1 child?
• Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to first birth?
• Women (& men) 22-42 with 1 child: what differentials in desire for having a 2nd child?
• Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to second birth?
• Women (& men) 22-42 with 2 children: what differentials in desire for having a 3rd child?
• Women (& men) 22-45: what differentials in transition to third birth?
Statistical analyses
For desires: binary logistic regressions for wanting at least one (more) child
For realisation of parity progression: Cox analysis (survival)
VariablesGender Education Religion Residence ‘Ethnicity’
Female Low education Catholic Main cities Swiss-German
Male Secondary Protestant Other urban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
The desire for (more) children is age dependent
Results…..
Low education Catholic City-dense Swiss-German
Secondary Protestant Suburban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural-sparse Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
Education Religion Residence ‘Ethnicity’
Low education Catholic City-dense Swiss-German
Secondary Protestant Suburban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural-sparse Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
Women
Reference categories:
Secondary education;
Catholic;
Suburban;
Swiss-French
If childless, wants at least 1 child
Likelihood of having a 1st child
Low education Catholic City-dense Swiss-German
Secondary Protestant Suburban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural-sparse Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
Education Religion Residence ‘Ethnicity’
Low education Catholic City-dense Swiss-German
Secondary Protestant Suburban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural-sparse Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
Women
Reference categories:
Secondary education;
Catholic;
Suburban;
Swiss-French
Has 1 child, wants at >=1 more child
Likelihood of progressing to a 2nd child
Low education Catholic City-dense Swiss-German
Secondary Protestant Suburban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural-sparse Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
Education Religion Residence ‘Ethnicity’
Low education Catholic City-dense Swiss-German
Secondary Protestant Suburban Swiss-French
Tertiary Muslim Rural-sparse Swiss-Italian
No religion Born in Germany
Born in France
Born in Italy
Born in Spain
Born in Portugal
Women
Reference categories:
Secondary education;
Catholic;
Suburban;
Swiss-French
Has 2 children, wants >=1 more
Likelihood of progressing to a 3rd child
…..also, similarly for men (not shown)
A wealth of information to be digested…
Other factors
Number of siblings (family of origin)Work situationPartner characteristics (education, attitudes…..)Liberal-conservative outlookHealthFamily / partnership harmony / ruptureChildcare availability (family, external)Financial situationSocial network (behaviour, opinions…)Locality
Problems of sample size….
Comparison of EFG and other surveys
EFG: Quite large sample size (>17,000); many questions; cross-sectional; similar but not exactly the same as GGP
Swiss Household Panel: longitudinal – annually since 1999, sample size variable, started with 5000 households, but 2 extra samples added. Questions vary over the years, though some repeated
Swiss census 2000: fully comprehensive but few demographic variables and none on attitudes (good for checking representativity of survey samples)
