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Diesel and marine fuel emissions in NSW - sources and trends

NSW EPA Shipping Emissions

Stakeholder Workshop Friday 14th November 2014

Nick Agapides, Manager Major Air Projects

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Inventory provides sound evidence • Greater metropolitan region including

Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong where 75% of NSW population lives

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Inventory provides sound evidence • Natural and human-made sources like

commercial businesses, household activities, EPA-licensed industry, off-road transport and registered vehicles

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Inventory provides sound evidence • Over 1000 substances, including criteria

pollutants, organics, metals, PAH, PCDD/PCDF, ammonia and GHG

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Inventory provides sound evidence • Compiled in 1992, 2003, 2008 and 2013

(in progress) to provide sound evidence for improving air quality

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Inventory provides sound evidence • Transport a significant source of PM and

ozone precursors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Transport Other Man-Made

NOx VOC PM2.5

Transport vs. Other Man-Made (2008)

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Direct and indirect formation of ozone & PM • Ozone is formed from NOx and VOC

precursors

• PM includes:

- direct emissions (soot, crustal)

- secondary organic and inorganic (sulfate and nitrate) aerosols

Diesel & marine fuel transport emissions are significant

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Diesel & marine fuel transport emissions are significant

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Major diesel & marine fuel transport emission sources

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Industrial Vehicles and Equipment - Diesel

Heavy Duty Commercial Diesel - Exhaust

Ships Main Engine - Residual Oil

Locomotives - Line Haul

Commercial Boats - Diesel

Light Duty Diesel - Exhaust

Ships Auxilliary Engine - Residual Oil

Locomotives - Passenger

Ships Main Engine - Diesel Oil

Ships Auxilliary Engine - Diesel Oil

Other

Tonnes/year

Sour

ce

Diesel & marine fuel transport NOx emissions in the GMR

On-road dieselNon-road diesel & marine

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Major diesel & marine fuel transport emission sources

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Industrial Vehicles and Equipment - Diesel

Heavy Duty Commercial Diesel - Exhaust

Ships Main Engine - Residual Oil

Light Duty Diesel - Exhaust

Ships Auxilliary Engine - Residual Oil

Ships Auxilliary Boiler - Residual Oil

Locomotives - Line Haul

Commercial Boats - Diesel

Locomotives - Passenger

Lawn Mowing (Public Open Spaces) - Diesel

Other

Tonnes/year

Sour

ce

Diesel & marine fuel transport PM2.5 emissions in the GMR

On-road dieselNon-road diesel & marine

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Emissions vs diesel & marine fuel consumption

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Non-road diesel & marine On-road diesel

Emissions vs Diesel & Marine Fuel Consumption in the GMR

NOx - kg/year

PM2.5 - kg/year

Diesel & marine fuel - kL/year

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Performance of major diesel & marine fuel transport emission sources

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ships Locomotives Non-road veh & equip Boats On-road diesel

NOx - kg/kL Diesel or Marine Fuel

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Performance of major diesel & marine fuel transport emission sources

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Ships Non-road veh & equip Locomotives On-road diesel Boats

PM2.5 - kg/kL Diesel or Marine Fuel

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Anthropogenic emissions declining in Sydney

+68%

+18%+26%+28%

-28%

-42%

-35%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

+20%

+40%

+60%

+80%

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Year

% c

han

ge

fro

m 1

992

ADRs for on-road diesels getting tighter

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17

Future diesel & marine fuel consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Dies

el &

mar

ine

fuel

cons

umpt

ion

(PJ/

year

)

BREE forecast diesel & marine fuel consumption in NSW by sector

Air transport

Manufacturing and Construction

Electricity generation

Commercial and services

Rail transport

Water transport

Agriculture

Mining

Non-road & marine transport

Road transport

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Future diesel & marine fuel transport emissions

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Where do marine fuel transport emissions occur

Newcastle21%

Port Jackson18%

Port Botany49%

Port Kembla12%

PM2.5 emissons by port in the GMR

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Where do marine fuel transport emissions occur

Cruise55%

RSZ2%

Manoeuvre1%

Anchorage9%

Berth33%

PM2.5 emissions by mode in the GMR

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Potential benefits of reducing marine fuel transport emissions

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

IFO380 LS380 (1%) IFO180 LS180 (1%)

Mar

ine

fuel

pric

e (2

014

AUD/

tonn

e)

Fuel

Marine fuel prices from Bunkerworld - 2014 AUD/tonne

Singapore

Sydney? ?

? = estimate

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Potential benefits of reducing marine fuel transport emissions

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Sydn

eyCe

ntra

l Coa

stW

ollo

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gPo

rt M

acqu

arie

Fors

ter -

Tun

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- M

aitla

ndGo

ulbu

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llina

Lism

ore

Griff

ithUl

ladu

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ssno

ckW

agga

Wag

gaOr

ange

Nelso

n Ba

y - C

orle

tte

Dubb

oKu

rri K

urri

- Wes

ton

Graf

ton

Bate

man

s Bay

Now

ra-B

omad

erry

St G

eorg

es B

asin

- Sa

nctu

ary

Poin

tTa

mw

orth

Bath

urst

Tare

eAl

bury

- W

odon

gaCo

ffs H

arbo

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ngle

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Brok

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Bow

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Mitt

agon

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mid

ale

Mor

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- Co

oran

bong

Park

esM

usw

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Cam

den

Have

nNo

t in

any

Sign

ifica

nt U

rban

Are

a…

Unit

dam

age

cost

for P

M2.

5 (2

014

AUD/

tonn

e)

Significant urban area

Unit damage costs for PM2.5 from PEL - 2014 AUD/tonne

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Potential benefits of reducing marine fuel transport emissions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Newcastle Port Jackson Port Botany Port Kembla Total

PM2.

5 em

issi

ons (

tonn

e/ye

ar)

Port

Potential Benefits of 1% S at Berth

PM2.5 - BAU (tonne/year) PM2.5 - LS (tonne/year) PM2.5 - reduction at berth (tonne/year)

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Potential benefits of reducing marine fuel transport emissions

$-

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

Newcastle Port Jackson Port Botany Port Kembla Total

2014

AUD

($/y

ear)

Port

Potential Benefits of 1% S at Berth

Health benefit (2014 AUD) Incremental fuel cost (2014 AUD) Net benefit (2014 AUD)

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Conclusions • Non-road diesel & marine fuel emissions a significant source of PM and

ozone precursor emissions

• Non-road diesel & marine fuel consumption similar to on-road diesel but likely to increase

• ADRs have been successful at reducing on-road diesel emissions

• Technologies and cleaner fuels are available to reduce non-road diesel & marine fuel emissions but cost is likely to be a major issue in some cases

• A significant health benefit can be achieved by reducing non-road diesel & marine fuel emissions

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Questions?