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Did You Know?. Why is Nigeria a useful case study for students of AP CompGov?. British colonization left Nigeria with a political and economic legacy that is common among many formerly colonized states. Nigeria ’ s socioeconomic indicators are typical of many developing countries - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Did  You Know?

Did YouKnow?

Page 2: Did  You Know?
Page 3: Did  You Know?

Why is Nigeria a useful case study for students of AP CompGov?

British colonization left Nigeria with a political and economic legacy that is common among many formerly colonized states.

Nigeria’s socioeconomic indicators are typical of many developing countries

Nigeria has been unable to fully capitalize on its oil reserves

Nigeria has experienced military rule and coups d’etat throughout its history but currently has a democratic constitution. Nigeria has experienced alternation between authoritarian and democratic regimes

Despite its political and economic challenges, Nigeria is a leader in West Africa.

Page 4: Did  You Know?

Intro to Nigeria…continued

Nigeria is the most ethnically diverse of all the countries in AP CompGov. The 3 most significant ethic groups in the political system are the: Hausa-Fulani Igbo Yoruba.

Page 5: Did  You Know?

“Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression” Chief Obafemi Awolowo

Southwest AKA “The West” Yoruba 2nd largest ethnic

group 40% Christian 40% Muslim 20% Yoruban Action Group

(AG)

Southeast AKA “The East” Igbo 3rd largest

ethnic group Predominantly

Christian National

Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC)

Northwest AKA “The North” Hausa-Fulani Largest ethnic

group Predominantly

Muslim Northern Peopl

e’s Congress (NPC)

Three other “minority” zones exist (Northeast, Middle Belt, and the Delta)

Nigeria is comprised of 250 separate ‘nations’

Page 6: Did  You Know?

The NorthHausa-Fulani

The WestYoruba

The EastIgbo

Page 7: Did  You Know?

Major ethnic and religious cleavages. Shari’a is practiced in many northern states,

Christians fear that a Muslim leader would try to implement Shari’a at a national level

Fear that an Igbo-led government would lead to a lack of equitable distribution of the oil reserves of the southeastern region.

Both Shari’a law and political violence in Nigeria have both appeared as topics on the AP exam

Page 8: Did  You Know?

Loyalty pyramids in Nigeria are a unique form of clientelism called prebendalism.

The constitution adopted in 1999 established a presidential system, which had led to relative stability

Page 9: Did  You Know?

International organizations like the World Bank, have played an important role in Nigeria.

Nigeria is a borrower nation and adopted a structural adjustment program.

Has made it different for Nigeria to provide social services to its citizens

Page 10: Did  You Know?

Nigeria’s social welfare system is weak with a high infant morality rate, low life expectancy, and a low literacy rate, among other problems.

Page 11: Did  You Know?

Nigeria has a free press and active civil society

Page 12: Did  You Know?

Country Bio Population- 151

million Territory- 356,668

square miles Year of

Independence- 1960 Year of current

Constitution- 1999 Constitution based on the 1979 Constitution (including revisions drafted in 1995)

Head of State- President Goodluck Jonathan

Head of Government- President Goodluck Jonathan

Languages- English (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, and 250 other ethnic groups

Religions- Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10%

Page 13: Did  You Know?

Transition to Democracy

Began in 1999, hopefully with the election of Olusegun Obsanjo as president. He was reelected in 2003

Umar Musa Yar’Adua was elected in 2007

Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as President with Yar’Adua fell ill

Page 14: Did  You Know?

Frustration with the failure of Democracy in Nigeria Unable to harness the country’s wealth

to provide basic human needs, education, potable water, reliable transportation, and communication

Power generation has fallen since 1999 Income levels are barely 1/10 of what

they are in US & Europe HDI Activity

Page 15: Did  You Know?

Roots /History

Complex systems of political institutions

Interacted in trade, cultural diffusion and wars

There was NO single Nigeria a century ago

Page 16: Did  You Know?

Hausa-Fulani City states in Northern Nigeria between 1000 and 1200 CE Came under the influence of Islam no later than 15th century Mosques and Koranic schools were flourishing Non Hausa court officials were Fulani. (who were originally from

W. Sudan) Entered the Hausa lands as teachers, traders and court

advisors Fulani dominated caliphate was establish in Sokoto, Northern

Nigeria and controlled it until British defeated it in 1903 Sokoto retains its role as the Muslim religious capital of Nigeria

today Hausa and Fulani cultures are very intertwined with extensive

intermarriage. Hausa is primary the language of both

Page 17: Did  You Know?

Yoruba Empires (South)

Highly centralized empires and kingdoms of Oyo and Ife; the Edo kingdom of Benin in the Midwest; Igbo societies to the east; and the trading city-states of the Niger Delta

Page 18: Did  You Know?

British domination: how and why?

Cause of interest was trade, slaves Exchanged captives for goods 20,000 people per year 1807 British abolished the slave trade Slave ships were replaced with Navy

ships1850 British began to interfere in politics and

obtained “treaties of protection and trade These treaties were favorable towards the

British

Page 19: Did  You Know?

Key events in Colonial Rule Berlin Conference in 1884

Divided Africa 1886 the Royal Niger Company

was granted a royal charter to control Nigeria Trade

1900 it was replaced by the creation of the colony of Lagos and the Protectorates of Northern and Southern Nigeria

Page 20: Did  You Know?

Problem with the colonial lines In West Africa, prevailing

climates and ecological zones run east to west

Colonies went from the coast, northward intersecting climate zones and guaranteeing that colonies thus established would be composed of people coming from vastly different cultures

Page 21: Did  You Know?
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Indirect Rule Allowed traditional structures to persist as subordinates to the

British governor and a small administrative apparatus In the more dispersed kingdoms as among the Yoruba, colonizers

either strengthen traditional chiefs or appointed warrant chiefs(who ruled by warrant of the British Crown

Weakened the previous practices of accountability and participation

British also played off ethnic and social divisions to keep Nigerians from developing organized political resistance to colonial rule. Oppressively put down any form of resistance, however, promoted democratic political system

Conflicted democratic idea: formal democratic institutions within an authoritarian culture

Colonialism strengthened the collective identities of Nigeria’s multiple ethnic groups

Page 24: Did  You Know?

Chief Obafemi Awolowo, leader of the AG (Action Group) Wrote in 1947, “Nigeria is not a

nation. It is a mere geographical expression. There are no ‘Nigerians’ in the same sense as there are ‘English,’ ‘Welsh,’ or ‘French.’ The word ‘Nigerian’ is a mere distinctive appellation to distinguish those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who do not.”

Page 25: Did  You Know?

First Republic (1960-1966)

Independence in 1960 Initially adopted the British Westminster model at the

federal and regional levels, with the PM chosen by the majority party or coalition.

Northerners came to dominate the federal government because they had a greater population.

First 2 years quickly turned into a northern-only grouping when the NPC (Northern People’s Congress) achieved an outright majority in the legislature

Redistribution of Resources- North benefited less from the economic, educational, and infrastructural benefits of colonialism and set to redistribute them for their benefit

Page 26: Did  You Know?

First Republic

NPC policy of “northernization” brought them into direct conflict with the south.

Coalition between NCNC and NPC fell apart because the NPC did not need it.

Nnamdi Azikiwe, NCNC (National Convention of Nigerian Citizens) coalition president (largely symbolic position at the time)

Tafawa Balewa (NPC) Prime Minister Both approached the military and asked for

their loyalty

Page 27: Did  You Know?

Civil War and Military Rule

1966-1979 Igbo officers seized power in Jan 1966 Yakubu Gowon, a Middle Belt Christian, came to power Violence broke out against the Igbo because so many

northern officials were killed in the coup Ethnic violence sent many Igbos fleeing to their home region

in the East In 1967, predominately Igbo population of eastern Nigeria

attempted to secede and form its own independent country named Biafra

Gowon built a military-led government of national unity in what remained of Nigeria (North and West)

3 year war of attrition and starvation tactics, defeated Biafra in Jan. 1970

Conflicted claimed approx. 1 million deaths

Page 28: Did  You Know?

Biafra (1967-70)

Igbo secessionist state Desired freedom because they

believed the North would always dominate because of their larger numbers (Igbo are the smallest of the big-three ethnicities)

Three year civil war resulted in over a million deaths

Yakubu Gowon, a Middle-Belt Christian came to power to lead a Nigerian unity government to stop the secession

Page 29: Did  You Know?

Post war Policy of national reconciliation Senior officers reaped the benefits of the 1973-1974 oil

boom Corruption was widespread Gowon postponed a return to civilian rule, and was

overthrown by Murtala Muhammad in 1975 Murtala Muhammad was assassinated before he could

achieve democratic transition General Olusegun Obasanjo, Muhammad’s second-in-

command and successor, peacefully ceded power to an elected cilivian government in 1979, which became known as the Second Republic. Then retires and reemerges as a civilian president in 1999

Page 30: Did  You Know?

Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999 1979-1983 President was

Shehu Shagari, National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Supported largely by the North. Mistrust and corruption Massive fraud and violent elections The military, led by, Major General

Muhammadu Buhari seized power

Page 31: Did  You Know?

Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999

General Buhari refused to pledge to a rapid return to democratic rule and failed to revived a plummeting economy, lost his supporters

1985 General Ibrahim Babangida seized power Announced a transition to democratic rule,

then stalled and annulled the presidential election of June 1993, he resigned

Handpicked successor of Babangida, Ernest Shonekan, led a weak civilian caretaker government and General Sani Abacha, seized power

Page 32: Did  You Know?

Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999

Abacha announced a new program of transition to civilian rule and regularly delayed its steps to implementation.

Cracked down on political opposition, severely restricted civil liberties and political rights and fomented corruption on a massive scale

Abacha suddenly died and his successor General Abdulsalami Abubakar quickly established a new transition program and promptly handed power to an elected civilian government led by President Olusegun Obasanjo and the People’s Democratic Party in May 1999

Page 33: Did  You Know?

Fourth Republic 1999-present

Obasanjo was called out of retirement by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

ObasanjoYoruba In 1979, Obasanjo handed power over

as military head of state to the northerner Shehu Shagari,

Therefore, North believed that he was Yoruba candidate they could trust

Page 34: Did  You Know?

Obasanjo’s Presidency Reform the state and the economy Retired all military officers who had held positions of political

power under previous military governments Targeted oil sector for new management and lobbied foreign

governments to forgive Nigeria’s massive debts Raised the minimum wage significantly “truth and reconciliation” commission was set up to address

past abused to the impoverished and environmentally ravaged Niger Delta Region, where oil is extracted

Civil society groups thrived on renewed political freedom Media grew bold in exposing corrupt practices He had political debts to his party, and his political survival

required that the anticorruption campaign leave entrenched interests unscathed and corrupt politicians in place

Page 35: Did  You Know?

Reelection Campaign in 2003 Reelection nomination for the PDP

through a series of political accommodations with key party barons

PDP political machine engaged in widespread electoral malpractices

Secured president’s second term and PDP dominance, however public confidence plummeted

Page 36: Did  You Know?

National Political Reform Conference Wanted to review the

constitution to bolster government legitimacy

Led to an effort which in the end would fail to eliminate the 2 term limit in the constitution.

Page 37: Did  You Know?

2007 Election Plan B- massively fraudulent election Blatant rigging and confusion to provoke

the public into the streets in order to declare a state of emergency to allow President Obasanjo to stay in office

Chose a little know successor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of Katsina state

Misjudged the people of Nigeria and Yar’Adua, the people did not erupt

Yar’Adua was elected president

Page 38: Did  You Know?

2007 Presidential Election

2007 Presidential Election57.5% turnoutUmaru Yar’AduaPeople’s Democratic Party (PDP)

70%

Muhammadu Buhari All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)

19%

Atiku AbubakarAction Congress (AC) 7%

Page 39: Did  You Know?

Goodluck Jonathan

From the oil-rich Niger Delta Worked cautiously to assure the

Northern powerbrokers that they could work with him

Moved quickly to establish his influence by using the assistance of Nigeria’s massive state controlled oil wealth

Ran for reelection in April 2011

Page 40: Did  You Know?

Yar’Adua Lacked legitmacy in the beginning and had

a difficult time getting things accomplished Worked hard to get support of his party “Seven Point Agenda” saw little action Yar’Adua was dying and sent away to

Saudia Arabia, No word for weeks National assembly handed the presidency

over to VP Goodluck Jonathan after 70 days of Yar’Adua’s absence

Page 41: Did  You Know?

On the 2007 Election & Obasanjo’s attempt for a 3rd term:“Oh yes, they will definitely rig this election. We do not want to give Obasanjo a reason to annul the election and stay in power.”

Page 42: Did  You Know?

Electoral Commission Jonathan appointed a credible chairman Undertook efforts to reform the deeply

compromised electoral system Could no longer buy the favor of the electoral

commission at a national level PDP shifted their rigging tactics to the state and

local levels because the electoral commission had not implemented reforms here yet

Although the elections were much improved, PDP still had a majority hold over the federal House and Senate

Page 43: Did  You Know?

A Nigerian pattern Military leaders say they are preparing

for a transition to democratic leadership…it never seems to happen.

Leaders who are truly interested in the transition are assassinated like Murtala Muhammed in 1976.

General Babangida announced a democratic transition and then annulled the 1993 election

General Abacha schemed to orchestrate the outcome of his announced transition in 1998 to produce his own “election” as president.

Page 44: Did  You Know?

But… General Olusegun Obasanjo

peacefully ceded power to an elected civilian government in 1979

General Abubakar delivered on his promise and handed over government to Obasanjo and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in May of 1999

Page 45: Did  You Know?

Nigerian Leaders 1960-present

According to post-Abacha governmental sources, some $4 billion (U.S.) in foreign assets have been traced to Abacha, his family and their representatives, $2.1 billion of which the Nigerian government tentatively came to an agreement with the Abacha family to return, with the quid pro quo being that the Abachas would be allowed to keep the rest of the money. Although this proposal caused a massive outcry at the time for seeming to reward the theft of public funds, it was subsequently rejected by the late dictator's son, who continues to maintain that all the assets in question were legitimately acquired.

His death in 1998 was celebrated in the streets.

Nigeria experienced its first

orderly transition from one

democratic government to

another in 2007.

Page 46: Did  You Know?

NG.2

Page 47: Did  You Know?

Rents Economic gains that do not

compensate those who produce them and do not contribute to productivity, typically associated with government earnings that do not get channeled back into either investments or policies that benefit the public good. Pursuit of economic rents is profit seeking that takes the form of nonproductive economic activity

Page 48: Did  You Know?

Post colonial period

Centered on agricultural production

Self sufficient in food production post independence

Later in the 1960s, it shifted to the development of nonfood export crops through large-scale enterprises

Page 49: Did  You Know?

3 factors that undermined the Nigerian agricultural sector The Biafran War Severe Drought Development of the petroleum

industry Agricultural exports went form

80% in 1960 to 2% in 1980

Page 50: Did  You Know?

Economic Decline 1970s boom in revenues from oil Nigeria

greatly increased their expenditures on education, defense, and infrastructure

Imports to support the expansion rose 7 fold between 1971-1979

Imports of consumer goods rose dramatically (600%)

By 1978, the govt had outspent its revenues, causing external debt to skyrocket

Page 51: Did  You Know?

Remember how the instability of the price of oil negatively affected Mexico’s economy?

80%from oil

Page 52: Did  You Know?

This leads to greater incentives for government corruption

By 1993, General Abacha allowed all of Nigeria’s oil refineries to collapse, forcing this giant oil-exporting country into the situation where they had to import refined petroleum

Page 53: Did  You Know?

Oil boom generated tremendous income

It also became a source of external dependence and badly skewed the Nigerian economy.

Since the 1970’s Nigeria has relied on oil for more than 90% of its export earnings and about 3/4s of government revenues.

Page 54: Did  You Know?

SAP Structural Adjustment Programs IMF, World Bank, and other IFIs

(International Financial Institutions) give bailout money with strings attached (AKA Conditionalitiy): Reduce government intervention in

the economy Develop free markets Austerity measures (effect on welfare)

Page 55: Did  You Know?

SAP Structural Adjustment Programs

More strings attached: Currency devaluation Privatize Parastatals/SOEs (more

competition) Shrink bureaucracy Reduce subsidies Balance the budget Increase foreign investment (you want to

invest in NG?) EFCC (Econ and Financial Crimes Comm)

Page 56: Did  You Know?

Why would a country want to devalue their currency? The exchange rate used to be 10

Tralfamadorian Dollars for one US Dollar.

Tralfamadore devalues their currency and now you get 30 Tralfamadorian Dollars for one US Dollar.

Would you buy more when you’re there? Would you go there more often?

Page 57: Did  You Know?

VISION 2010 and NEEDS

VISION 2010: - restore democratic rule - restructure and professionalize military - lower population growth - rebuild education - meaningful privatization - diversify export base (beyond oil)

Page 58: Did  You Know?

NEEDS: (National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy) - lackluster implementation of VISION and NEEDS - little economic policy from President Jonathan - oil revenues have spurred economy since 2005 ***poverty has not diminished during this time

Page 59: Did  You Know?

Obasanjo’s greatest economic achievement: - external debt reduced by 90%

Page 60: Did  You Know?

SOCIAL WELFARE

Since 1986 quality and quantity of social services on the decline

- How can you explain this? Urban and rural poor, women, young,

elderly hurt by economic stagnation Life expectancy, infant mortality,

education, social security, 70% living on less than a dollar/day;

90% less than $2/day

Page 61: Did  You Know?

This doesn’t look good…

for other countries visit the US Census Population Pyramids

Page 62: Did  You Know?

Society and Economy- Ethnic and Religious Cleavages

Past northerner (Muslim) leaders shifted the distribution of resources balance to the north

Fear that Shari’a law will spread Mistrust between Muslims and Christians Muslims fear now that Christian leader

Goodluck Jonathan will continue to shift the balance of the distribution of resources to the south

Page 63: Did  You Know?

Gender differences

Land ownership is largely patriarchal, although women especially in the south and Middle Belt regions dominate agricultural production

Women are grossly underrepresented in government only 8 national legislators are women

Page 64: Did  You Know?

The Independent

Nigeria Election

Commission requires political parties to earn at least 5% in local elections in 24 of 36 states before they can proceed to the state and federal

elections.why?

Page 65: Did  You Know?

Prebendalism

Disbursing of public offices and state rents to one’s ethnic-based clients.

The officeholder’s “clients” comprise a specific set of elites to which he is linked, typically by ethnic or religious ties Kaduna Mafia Abacha’s Boys & Babangida’s Boys

Prebendalism deepened sectional cleavages and eroded the resources of the state. It also discouraged genuinely productive activity in civil society and expanded the class of individuals who live off state patronage

Transparency International lists Nigeria as one of the world’s most corrupt nations (134 of 178)

Guanxi in China and the Nomenklatura system in Soviet Russia

Page 66: Did  You Know?

Governance and Policy-making Parliamentary system (1st

Republic) Presidential system after the 2nd republic (and beyond)

Problems of legitimacy with the government as well as the democratic system

- 4 constitutions drafted since 1960

Page 67: Did  You Know?

National Government

36 states(774 local governments)

Uniquely Nigerian: - military rule = authoritarian culture still despite democratization of state structures

- centralized control of oil wealth = economic and political control in center

- Ethnic rotation principle: back and forth between North and South ethnic rule “power shift” - 2011 and Jonathan broke cycle - 2015 back to the North?

Page 68: Did  You Know?

“federal character” (formal practice)

- ethnic quotas in government hiring

- call for merit over “federal character”

Page 69: Did  You Know?

Executive Branch

Parliamentary system Presidential system after the 2nd republic

Problems of legitimacy with the government as well as the democratic system

Page 70: Did  You Know?

The Bureaucracy (prebendalism)

Way to reward individuals in the patrimonial system

Individuals are appointed based on patronage, ethnic group and regional origin rather than merit

72,000 at independence over a million by the 1980s

Salaries ½ of government expenditures

Page 71: Did  You Know?

Semipublic Institutions

Parastatals, state owned enterprises…why needed? Furnish public facilities Accelerate economic development Nationalist dimension that relates to

issues of sovereignty over sectors perceived sensitive for national security

Page 72: Did  You Know?

Judicial Branch

Buhari, Babangida and Abacha regimes disallowed judicial review Government dominated the courts

Return to civilian rule 1999- courts have slowly begun to restore some independence and credibility

Some states in northern part maintain a parallel system based on Islamic Shari’a law

Page 73: Did  You Know?

State and local governments

90% of state incomes are from the federal government which includes a lump sum based on oil revenues, plus a percentage of oil income based on population

Most local govts have degenerated into prebendal patronage outposts for governors to give out to loyalist

Have the ability to raise fund through taxes, but Nigerians refuse to pay taxes

Vicious cycle

Page 74: Did  You Know?

Policy Making

Top down directives during military rule

- “loyalty pyramids”: network of supporters

Pyramid reflects Ethnic or religious affiliations aka prebendalism

Men @ top = access toOil wealth

$ passed down toReward support

Creation of militaryRule. Individuals And elements stillIn play today

Page 75: Did  You Know?

Civilian Policy-making

Centered around presidential initiative

- policy is filtered through interest of “the BIG MEN”

- their agenda conflicts w/ President and each other = policy blocked or altered

Page 76: Did  You Know?

Representation and Participation

Page 77: Did  You Know?

The Legislature Bicameral National Assembly Victim of political instability Election to the senate is based on equal state

representation, with 3 senators from each of the 36 states plus 1 senator from the federal capital territory Abuja.

Election to the House of Representatives is also based on state representation but weighted to reflect the relative size of each state’s population

33 women were elected to the National Assembly in 2007 (7% of membership)

Executive dominance legislative gaining some respect

Page 78: Did  You Know?

Legislature has never assumed full constitutional role

Party in the executive wins majority in National Assembly

Obasanjo = “small boys”

Same is typical at state level

Page 79: Did  You Know?

Political Parties and Elections First past the post plurality system

People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Alliance for Democracy (AD), and the All People’s Party (APP)

Parties must win 5% of vote in 24 of 36 states in local elections to participate in state and federal

- has effectively limited # of parties - reduced ethnic based parties

Page 80: Did  You Know?

Sole purpose of parties = gain power - no ideological differences b/w

them - multiethnic parties = one most

significant democratic developments of 4th Republic

- alliances of convenience for “Big Men”

Page 81: Did  You Know?

Political Culture, Citizenship, and Identity Modernity v. Traditionalism - interaction of the West w/

traditional African culture - identify w/ ethnic, regional, or

religious group - no “common interest” that

binds them

Page 82: Did  You Know?

Religion - Muslim v. Christian - shari’a law - Boko Haram

The Press - considered “Southern” - more recent independent TV and radio

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Nigerian Constitution

(132-3) Where in an election to the office of President one of the two or more candidates nominated for the election is the only candidate after the close of nomination, by reason of the disqualification, withdrawal, incapacitation, disappearance or death of the other candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall extend the time for nomination.

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Nigerian ConstitutionFederal Character for President

(133) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected to such office where, (a) he has the highest number of

votes cast at the election and (b) he has not less than one-

quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja

Page 85: Did  You Know?

Not so Easy-Bake Oven

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Page 87: Did  You Know?

Ken Saro-Wiwa

Author & environmental

ist. Son of a Ogoni chief

from the Delta.

President of the Movement

for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MoSOP). Led a nonviolent

campaign against

multinational oil giant Shell.

Saro-Wiwa and 8 others

were executed by

the military in 1995 after

rigged trials during the

Abacha regime.

During the Abacha Regime, the Supreme Court endorsed a position that put all

actions of the military executive beyond the pale of Judicial Review.

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Sharia

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Electoral Transparency

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The Coup from Heaven

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2011 (Delayed a week b/c of late-arriving ballots)