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8/3/2019 Diagnosing the Global Economy by Dr Romesh Senewiratne (2000)
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HOCJEAPOEJXMLJFABCFL@AEAK_2>>>HR%RAKLPM PLELZORCXEL
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8/3/2019 Diagnosing the Global Economy by Dr Romesh Senewiratne (2000)
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8/3/2019 Diagnosing the Global Economy by Dr Romesh Senewiratne (2000)
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`or`|fcxoae ag kaely oe xml zarfh% Gar mlcfxm xmop `or`|fcxoae
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bahy& `aexoe|lp xa mcwl c `aepxcex ceh aejaoej rmyxmk% Xml
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xml orae xmcx op el`lppcry xa `crry a}yjle cra|eh xml bahy oprl`y`flh by c`xoae ag xml p~flle ceh fowlr% Og xmlrl op eax
lea|jm bfaah oe `or`|fcxoae& hoplcpl& oe xml gark ag ceclkoc
hlwlfa~p% Gar mlcfxm ag xml xopp|lp& ceh xml bahy cp c zmafl&
bfaah k|px bl hopxrob|xlh by bfaah wlpplfp xa lc`m ceh lwlry
`lff oe xml bahy%
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Xml `or`|fcxary pypxlk& brolgfy ceh pok~fopxo`cffy hlp`roblh
cbawl& `ce bl `ak~crlh zoxm xml `or`|fcxoae ag kaely& xml
jlelrcxoae ag `cpm -by hogglrlex ecxoaep& cp oe baelp zmo`m
`aexcoe xml bael kcrraz/& xml Oexlrecxoaecf Kaelxcry G|ehceh Zarfh Bced -xml mlcrx& zmo`m op p|gglroej grak ~axlexocffy
xlrkoecf offelpp& cx ~rlplex/& oehowoh|cf ecxoaecf bcedp ceh
CXKp -bfaah wlpplfp/& ceh xopp|lp ag hogglrlex arjcep -xazep
ceh jlajrc~mo`cf rljoaep/% Lwlry oehowoh|cf mcp ellh ag kaely&
ceh hl~rowcxoae ag oehowoh|cf `lffp -~la~fl/ flchp xa hoplcpl oe
xml zmafl%
Xml bahy op k|`m karl xmce bfaah& mazlwlr% ^la~fl ellh
k|`m karl xmce kaely gar c mlcfxmy& mc~~y fogl% Xmly ellhgaah& cor& fojmx ceh pmlfxlr& i|px xa p|rwowl% Xmly cfpa ellh
`faxmoej ceh zcrkxm& lkaxoaecf ceh leworaeklexcf
pxok|fcxoae& klceoejg|f c`xowoxy ceh jaah lh|`cxoae gar c
`akgarxcbfl ceh mlcfxmy l}opxle`l% Xml ~mypoafajo`cf cecfajy
ag xml `crhoawcp`|fcr pypxlk `ce cfpa bl c~~folh xa axmlr
pypxlkp& zoxm c ga`|p ae mlcfoej ceh rljlelrcxoae%
Xml rlp~orcxary pypxlk ag wlrxlbrcxlp op `lexrlh ae xml c`xowoxy
ag xml f|ejp& b|x mlcfxm `ceeax bl c`molwlh zoxma|x `flce corxa brlcxml% Xmop bcpo` el`lppoxy gar fogl op `|rrlexfy bloej
xmrlcxlelh by ~aff|xoae ceh xml ~rakaxoae ag `ojcrlxxlp
xmra|jma|x xml zarfh% Xml jrazxm ag xml xabc``a oeh|pxry awlr
xml ~cpx xmrll m|ehrlh ylcrp mcp blle c``ak~ceolh& oe gc`x&
by c hrckcxo` ropl oe c`x|cf rlp~orcxary offelpp& ~crxo`|fcrfy oe
oeh|pxrocfoplh `a|exrolp& b|x cfpa oe axmlr ~crxp ag xml zarfh cx
xml mcehp ag oeh|pxrocfoplh ecxoaep% Xmlpl offelpplp oe`f|hl f|ej
`ce`lr& cpxmkc ceh lk~myplkc& `mraeo` brae`moxop ceh
rlp~orcxary oegl`xoaep% Cff xmlpl `aehoxoaep crl `c|plh arcjjrcwcxlh by `ojcrlxxl pkadoej& ceh pkadoej chwlrplfy
cggl`xp baxm xml pkadlrp xmlkplfwlp& ceh axmlr ~la~fl zma
brlcxml oe xml pkadl xmcx xmly l}mcfl%
Xml xabc``a oeh|pxry op ael ag xmapl hlpxr|`xowl oeh|pxrolp xmcx
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bl`ckl zlcfxmy zoxm xml pzlcx ag pfcwl fcba|r% Cgro`ce pfcwlp
zlrl xcdle xa zard ae xabc``a ~fcexcxoaep oe xml @crobblce&
Pa|xm Cklro`c ceh lfplzmlrl xmra|jma|x xml plwlexllexm ceh
lojmxllexm `lex|rolp by H|x`m& P~ceopm ceh Lejfopm pfcwlrp&
zoxm xml `ak~fo`oxy ag xml jawlreklexp ceh kaecr`molp agxmlpl `afaeopoej `a|exrolp% Xabc``a ~fcexcxoaep zlrl cfpa
`rlcxlh oe xml H|x`m Lcpx Oeholp& zmo`m fcxlr bl`ckl
Oehaelpoc% Oe xmlpl opfcehp oehojlea|p ceh kojrcex zardlrp
zlrl lk~faylh& cgxlr xml cbafoxoae ag pfcwlry& xa `aexoe|l xml
kaea`ra~ cjro`|fx|rl xmcx p|~~arxp ael ag xml bojjlpx dofflrp
ag xml kahlre zarfh9 xml xabc``a `ojcrlxxl oeh|pxry%
Xml gc`x xmcx `ojcrlxxl pkadoej op c kciar `c|pl ag rlp~orcxary
hoplcpl zcp hleolh gar kcey ylcrp by xabc``a `ak~ceolphl`chlp cgxlr xml klho`cf lwohle`l hlkaepxrcxoej xmop gc`x
zcp awlrzmlfkoej% H|roej xml gorpx ceh pl`aeh zarfh zcrp
`ojcrlxxlp zlrl ~rakaxlh cp ag blelgox xa ~py`mafajo`cf pxrlpp
cfxma|jm& oe rlcfoxy& zoxmhrczcf grak xml hr|j c`x|cffy `c|plp
xmop ~rabflk& poe`l eo`axoel `c|plp ~mypo`cf chho`xoae% Zmle ox
bl`ckl ok~appobfl gar `ojcrlxxl `ak~ceolp xa ~rakaxl xmlor
~rah|`x oe xmop zcy oe zlpxlre `a|exrolp h|l xa ~|bfo` ceh
klho`cf czcrlelpp ag xml ropdp ag pkadoej& xml pckl
`ak~ceolp pafh mlcwy eo`axoel `ojcrlxxlp xmra|jma|x xmlxmorh zarfh oepxlch& zmofpx goehoej zcyp cra|eh xml fczp
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Zmle a~~arx|eoxolp crapl& oe xml 3?=>p ceh 3??>p& xa plff
Cklro`ce ceh L|ra~lce `ojcrlxxlp oe ~rlwoa|pfy `akk|eopx
`a|exrolp& lwlry lggarx zcp kchl xa chho`x xml ~a~|fcxoaep ag
R|ppoc& Lcpxlre Bfa` `a|exrolp ceh @moec xa mojm+eo`axoel
`ojcrlxxlp hlp~oxl xmlor deaze hcejlrp% Ox op le`a|rcjoej&
mazlwlr& xmcx rl`lexfy `ak~lepcxoae mcp blle ~coh& cfxma|jm
blfcxlhfy& xa pakl ag xml wo`xokp ag xml `ojcrlxxl xrchl%
@ojcrlxxl chho`xoae zarfhzohl `ce bl cfflwocxlh by c jfabcf
bce ae ~|bfo` `ojcrlxxl chwlrxopoej& ceh xml pckl c~~folp xa
cf`amaf& zmo`m cfpa `c|plp |exafh mlcfxm hckcjl xmra|jma|x
xml zarfh% Xmop op eax xml pckl cp ~ramoboxoae% Ox op zlff
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lpxcbfopmlh xmcx ~ramoboxoae gcofp cp c ~afo`y xa pxa~ hr|j cb|pl&
ceh `ce kcdl xml ~rabflk zarpl% C bce ae `ojcrlxxl
chwlrxopoej oe ~|bfo` ~fc`lp ceh xml kcpp+klhoc op c `apx
lggl`xowl paf|xoae& zmo`m halp eax oexlrglrl zoxm xml
oehowoh|cfp rojmx xa pkadl% Zmofl xmop rojmx kcy l}opx& xml rojmxxa deazoejfy ~aopae xml f|ejp ag xml oeea`lex halp eax l}opx%
Xml pcwoejp xa xml jfabcf mlcfxm b|hjlx grak p|`m c bce za|fh
bl kcppowl& ~crxo`|fcrfy oe `a|exrolp p|`m cp C|pxrcfoc& zmlrl
mlcrx hoplcpl ceh `ce`lr crl kciar `c|plp ag hoplcpl ceh
hlcxm%
Xml rlp~orcxary mlcfxm ag xml jfabcf ~a~|fcxoae zoff cfpa blelgox
grak c `lppcxoae ag oeh|pxrocf ~aff|xoae& b|x xmop op eax cp lcpy
xa c`molwl cp c `lppcxoae ag `ojcrlxxl pkadl ~aff|xoae% Cpojeogo`cex rlh|`xoae oe jfabcf ~aff|xoae `a|fh bl c`molwlh&
mazlwlr& by jrlcxlr `ar~arcxl ceh jawlreklexcf p|~~arx gar
rlelzcbfl lelrjy pa|r`lp& ceh zoxm garlpojmx xmop op c zopl
xmoej gar jawlreklexp ceh oeh|pxry xa ha& poe`l `acf ceh
~lxrafl|k hl~apoxp crl fokoxlh% Cor oxplfg `ce ~rawohl
pojeogo`cex cka|exp ag lelrjy& oe xml gark ag zoeh ~azlr& ceh
p|efojmx op ceaxmlr `flce pa|r`l ag lelrjy& zmo`m op p|pxcoecbfl
oe xml faej xlrk%
Grllhak `ce bl ls|cxlh zoxm xml brlcxm ag fogl% Ox op c
g|ehcklexcf rls|orlklex gar c i|px pa`olxy% Xmop grllhak
oe`f|hlp grllhak ag p~ll`m& grllhak ag xma|jmx& grllhak ag
cppa`ocxoae& grllhak ag kawlklex ceh grllhak ag
~ra`rlcxoae% _lx xmlpl crl cff bcpo` rojmxp zmo`m mcwl blle& ceh
crl `|rrlexfy& hleolh xa fcrjl ~ra~arxoaep ag xml zarfhp
~a~|fcxoae% Xmop op xa xml hlxroklex ag xml jfabcf l`aeaky& ceh
karl ok~arxcexfy& xa xml `c|pl ag m|kceoxy& i|pxo`l& ~lc`l ceh
xrces|ofoxy%
Gaah op el`lppcry gar xml hojlpxowl mlcfxm ag xml jfabcf
~a~|fcxoae% @aexrcry xa `fcokp ag awlr~a~|fcxoae& ox op zlff
rl`ajeoplh xmcx pxcrwcxoae ceh kcfea|ropmklex ha eax a``|r
bl`c|pl xmlrl op eax lea|jm gaah xa ja cra|eh& b|x bl`c|pl ag
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zcrgcrl ceh zcpxcjl% Xml chwo`l ag Kamcehcp Jcehmo ylcrp
cja& xmcx xml zarfh ~rawohlp lea|jm gar lwlry ~lrpaep ellh
b|x eax lwlry ~lrpaep jrllh rlkcoep xr|l xahcy% M|jl
cka|exp ag zmlcx ceh axmlr pxc~fl gaahp crl rlj|fcrfy
hlpxraylh xa kcoexcoe mojm ~ro`lp ag rlpa|r`lp xmcx `a|fh bl|plh xa gllh xml ~aar% Rcxmlr xmce le`a|rcjoej ~la~fl oe ~aar
ecxoaep xa jraz xmlor aze gaah |poej leworaeklexcffy plepobfl
k|fxo~fl `ra~ cjro`|fx|rl& gar plwlrcf `lex|rolp fcrjl crlcp ag
xml zarfhp glrxofl rljoaep mcwl blle& ceh `aexoe|l xa bl& |plh
gar leworaeklexcffy hlpxr|`xowl kaea`ra~ cjro`|fx|rl% Xmop
kaea`ra~ cjro`|fx|rl oewafwlp xml hlgarlpxcxoae ag ko}lh
wljlxcxoae ceh rl~fc`lklex zoxm poejfl `ra~p p|`m cp xabc``a&
`aggll& xlc& zmlcx ceh p|jcr% Xml ~ro`lp ag xmlpl `akkahoxolp
mcwl `aepopxlexfy gcffle& zmofl xml xl`meafajy rls|orlh xakcoexcoe xmlpl `ra~p mcp bl`akl karl l}~lepowl%
Xmlpl `ra~p crl cfpa ag foxxfl blelgox xa xml lpplexocf holxcry
ellhp ag xml ecxoaep oe zmo`m ~fcexcxoaep zlrl lpxcbfopmlh
h|roej xml lrc ag pfcwlry% Kaea`ra~ ~fcexcxoaep crl bloej
kcoexcoelh gar xml `aewleole`l ceh l`aeaky ag ro`m `a|exrolp
rcxmlr xmce ~aar aelp% Lggarxp xa bl`akl plfg+p|ggo`olex oe
xlrkp ag gaah jraze oe oehowoh|cf ecxoaep crl rlj|fcrfy
xmzcrxlh by xml ~afo`olp ag xml Zarfh Bced ceh OexlrecxoaecfKaelxcry G|eh& zmo`m p|~~arx xml oexlrlpxp ag lpxcbfopmlh
oeh|pxrolp ceh fcrjl `ak~ceolp bcplh oe cggf|lex ecxoaep% _lx
lwle xml hlp`ro~xoae ag xmlpl ecxoaep cp cggf|lex kcdlp foxxfl
plepl og xml `fcokp ag hlbx xa oexlrecxoaecf bcedlrp crl xa bl
c``l~xlh% By xmlpl xlrkp xml \eoxlh Pxcxlp ag Cklro`c op ael
ag xml ~aarlpx ecxoaep ae lcrxm& poe`l xmop gorpx zarfh ecxoae&
fodl C|pxrcfoc& cfpa `aepohlrlh cggf|lex& c~~crlexfy cfpa azlp
kcey boffoaep ag haffcrp xa xml OKG ceh Zarfh Bced% Gar zmcx1
Gar ~afo`olp gar`lh ae xml ecxoaep ag xml zarfh xmcx crloe`rlcpoejfy `rlcxoej c jfabcf zcpxlfceh1
Faadoej cx xml hojlpxowl pypxlk ag xml jfabcfl`aeaky ae c
brachlr flwlf& xml xaxcf cka|ex ag oejlpxlh p|bpxce`lp by
m|kcep `ce bl faadlh cx cp c zmafl% Rl`lex ylcrp mcwl plle
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m|kcep bloej hlp`roblh by l`aeako` rcxoaecfopxp cp
`aep|klrp rcxmlr xmce ~la~fl& ceh ox op lwohlex xmcx oe
`a|exrolp p|`m cp C|pxrcfoc& ~la~fl crl jlelrcffy `aep|koej
xaa k|`m ceh `aep|koej xml zraej xmoejp og xmly oexleh xmlor
mlcfxm xa ok~rawl% Xmlpl oe`f|hl ~mcrkc`l|xo`cf hr|jp cp zlffcp ceokcf ~rah|`xp& ~crxo`|fcrfy klcx%
Ae 3>%3%2>>>& Xml C|pxrcfoce `aexcoep c ~cjl xmrll crxo`fl
xoxflh Bch mcboxp ~|pm |~ (0be ~off boff% Oe ox& Iame Dlroe
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Ml`xo` foglpxyflp& ~aar holx ceh xaa foxxfl l}lr`opl crl
hrowoej |~ C|pxrcfocp (0 boffoae+c+ylcr ~rlp`ro~xoae hr|j
boff% Ce l}ckoecxoae ag ~rlp`ro~xoae hr|j+xcdoej ~cxxlrep
awlr xml ~cpx 32 kaexmp pmazp xml boj jrazxm mcp bllegar xml xrlcxklex ag `crhoawcp`|fcr cofklexp& mojm bfaah
~rlpp|rl ceh mojm `maflpxlraf% Cfkapx 38> koffoae p`ro~xp
zlrl opp|lh oe 3??=+??% Pakl 3= koffoae zlrl opp|lh gar
bfaah ~rlpp|rl+rlfcxlh `ak~fcoexp oe 3??=+?? ceh c
g|rxmlr = koffoae gar hr|jp ellhlh xa fazlr `maflpxlraf%
Dlroe chhp xmcx& xml |pl ag l}~lepowl pxakc`m |f`lr ceh
jcpxro` rlgf|} hr|jp ceh cexo+hl~rlppcexp op cfpa ae xml ropl&
zoxm c hl`rlcpl oe p`ro~xp gar cexoboaxo`p%
Xml rlcpaep jowle by Hr Hcwoh Brceh& ecxoaecf ~rlpohlex ag xml
C|pxrcfoce Klho`cf Cppa`ocxoae -CKC/ gar xmop hlbc`fl crl
`aeg|plh ceh `aeg|poej% Zmofl chkoxxoej xmcx holx ceh
l}lr`opl crl ok~arxcex oe baxm mojm bfaah ~rlpp|rl ceh
fazlroej `maflpxlraf ceh xmcx xml cwlrcjl C|pxrcfoce mcp
blle jcoeoej c jrck ag gcx c hcy awlr xml ~cpx 3< ylcrp& ml
cfpa `fcokp xmcx xml jrazxm oe |pl ag ~rlp`ro~xoae hr|jp `a|fh
cfpa bl l}~fcoelh by xrlkleha|p ok~rawlklexp oe hr|jp% Oerlcfoxy& xma|jm& xml oe`rlcpl op karl fodlfy xa bl h|l xa
l}xrcarhoecrofy cjjrlppowl `ck~cojep by ~mcrkc`l|xo`cf
`ak~ceolp xa plff xmlpl l}~lepowl hr|jp ceh xml gcof|rl ag
ha`xarp xa rlpopx xmlor kcrdlxoej pxrcxljolp% Hr Brceh mokplfg
chkoxp xmcx& c glz ylcrp cja ya| mch c bfaahy mcrh xokl
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`aewoe`oej ~cxolexp xa xcdl pakl bfaah ~rlpp|rl ~rl~crcxoaep
ar cexo+hl~rlppcexp% Xmop pxcxlklex op c hopx|rboej oeho`cxar ag
xml klho`cf ~raglppoaep rafl oe ~|pmoej hr|jp& lp~l`ocffy zmle
ml cfpa chkoxp xmcx xml rlpopxce`l ag xml ~a~|fcxoae xa xcdoej
xmlpl hr|jp zcp bl`c|pl& xmly lehlh |~ gllfoej karl czg|fgrak xml pohl lggl`xp xmce xmly hoh grak xml arojoecf
`ak~fcoex%
Oe gc`x& mojm bfaah ~rlpp|rl ceh mojm `maflpxlraf oe xmlkplfwlp
ha eax |p|cffy kcdl ~la~fl gllf czg|f9 xml rlcpae xmly crl
xrlcxlh op gar xml ~rlwlexoae ag mlcrx hoplcpl& pxradl ceh axmlr
`aepls|le`lp ag cxmlrap`flrapop -mcrhleoej ag crxlrolp/%
G|rxmlrkarl& hr|j xrlcxklex by oxplfg& zoxma|x blmcwoarcf
`mcejl& mcp blle rl~lcxlhfy pmaze xa bl oelggl`xowl oerlh|`oej xmop ropd% Xcdoej `maflpxlraf fazlroej hr|jp zoxma|x
rlh|`oej klcx ceh pcx|rcxlh ceokcf gcx oexcdl halp eax rlh|`l
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xcdoej bfaah ~rlpp|rl fazlroej hr|jp zoxma|x rlh|`xoae ag
klexcf pxrlpp& ablpoxy ceh axmlr foglpxyfl gc`xarp%
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~mcrkc`l|xo`cf l}~lehox|rl ag C|pxrcfoc ceh axmlr gorpx
zarfh `a|exrolp crl `aehoxoaep `c|plh by l}`lpp& rcxmlr xmcehlgo`ole`y% Xmop ~aoex op kopplh by Dlroe& ceh by Brceh% Xmly
cfpa gcof xa klexoae xml kciar chhoxoaecf ropd gc`xar gar mlcrx
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xmce& cjcoe& cjjrlppowl kcrdlxoej `ck~cojep gar elz
cexohl~rlppcexp& ceh brachlelh `roxlroc gar hocjeapop ag xml
`aehoxoae& mojmlr rcxlp ag ~rlp`roboej gar hl~rlppoae zlrl
foedlh xa ok~rawlklexp oe oxp hocjeapop% C`x|cffy& xmopok~rawlklex oe hocjeapop i|px klcep xmcx ha`xarp ceh xml
~|bfo` crl karl fodlfy xa `cff pchelpp& gr|pxrcxoae& barlhak&
ce}olxy& zarry ceh hopxrlpp hl~rlppoae%
Xml hocjeapop ag hl~rlppoae mcp blle kcrdlxlh r|xmflppfy oe
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xml kcpp klhoc& oe`f|hoej klho`cf lh|`cxoaecf foxlrcx|rl
~rawohlh by xml ~mcrkc`l|xo`cf oeh|pxry ceh
mlcfxm+~rakaxoaecf `ck~cojep& p|`m cp xmapl ag xml Glhlrcf
Jawlreklexp klexcf mlcfxm pxrcxljy% Oe xmlpl `ck~cojep&
p~lcrmlchlh oe C|pxrcfoc by xml Klexcf Mlcfxm Ga|ehcxoae&~ra~cjcehc grak xml hr|j `ak~ceolp Pkoxm Dfoel Bll`mck&
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xa plfg+hocjeapl xmlkplfwlp cp p|gglroej grak c klho`cf
offelpp xlrklh hl~rlppoae% Xmop offelpp op pcoh xa bl `c|plh
by `mlko`cf okbcfce`lp& zmo`m crl paklxoklp p~l`ogolh cp
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-`cfflh earl~oel~mroel oe xml \PC/% Xmop xmlary& zmo`m
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ag xmlpl crl PPRO cexohl~rlppcexp& xml kcrdlxoej ag zmo`m mcp`aepxox|xlh ael ag xml bojjlpx p`olexogo` grc|hp ag xml xzlexolxm
`lex|ry%
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ceh xml ~oelcf arjce oe xml brcoe zmlrl xml `mlko`cf op
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h|roej ma|rp ag eojmx+xokl hcrdelpp% Plraxaeoe zcp hop`awlrlh
oe xml lcrfy 3?8>p ceh klfcxaeoe zcp hop`awlrlh oe 3?p cfaej zoxm xml ~cxmzcy gar pyexmlpop ag klfcxaeoe grak
plraxaeoe% Ox zcp hop`awlrlh cx xmop xokl xmcx plraxaeoe ceh
klfcxaeoe crl `ae`lexrcxlh oe xml ~oelcf ceh xmcx fojmx pmael
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