DG Economics Economic conditions, Gerrit Koester …...2019/07/01 · Note: Data for 2017, expressed in trillion current international $ PPP for GDP and thousands international $

The euro area economy: Economic conditions, inflation and prospects

Neale Kennedy Division Business Cycle Analysis DG Economics Gerrit Koester Division Prices & Costs DG Economics

Central Banking Seminar Frankfurt am Main, 2 July 2019

ECB-PUBLIC

1 Economic analysis and conjunctural assessment

Overview

1.1 Economic analysis at the ECB

1.2 Main features of the euro area economy

1.3 Conjunctural developments and the outlook 1.4 Business cycle synchronisation

2 Inflation developments in the euro area

2.1 Recent developments in euro area inflation

2.2 Euro area inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve

2.3 Structural drivers of inflation 2.4 Inflation outlook

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Economic Analysis at the ECB Economic analysis as part of the information set to inform monetary policy decisions

Full set of information

Economic analysis

Monetary analysis

Governing Council takes monetary policy decisions based on

a unified overall assessment of the risks to price stability

Cross checking

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• Assessment of short to medium-term determinants of price developments

• Forward-looking assessment of relevant information from a variety of indicators (e. g. business cycle, wages, exchange rate, asset prices, financial yields, fiscal policy, etc.)

• Quarterly macroeconomic projections for inflation and growth in the euro area, prepared by staff of the Eurosystem/ ECB

Monitoring Analysing Forecasting

4

Economic Analysis at the ECB

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Size and per capita income – international comparison

Main features of the euro area economy

Sources: Worldbank International Comparison Database. Note: Data for 2017, expressed in trillion current international $ PPP for GDP and thousands international $ PPP for GDP per capita.

19.415.0

5.6

23.3

59.5

43.8 43.9

16.8

0

20

40

60

80

United States Euro area Japan China

GDP, PPP (current international $)

GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)

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Sources: World Bank International Comparison Database. Note: The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

Share in world GDP (annual, based on PPP) Advanced economies share in world GDP is shrinking

Main features of the euro area economy

21.415.2

16.9

11.7

7.1

4.4

7.4

18.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1999 2017

United States Euro Area Japan China

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Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: The peaks are defined by the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee. Latest observations: 2019Q1 for the euro area.

Current conjunctural situation

Real GDP (index: business cycle peak = Q = 100)

The euro area expansion follows an unusually deep and protracted recession

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Q Q+4 Q+8 Q+12Q+16Q+20Q+24Q+28Q+32Q+36Q+40Q+44

1974Q3 1980Q1 1992Q1

2008Q1 2007Q4 (US) 2008Q1 (UK)

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Levels of actual and potential output (index: 1999=100)

Decomposition of potential growth (percentage points and contribution)

Sources: Eurostat, European Commission and ECB staff calculations. Notes: Actual output is real GDP. Potential output is based on European Commission estimates. The counterfactual scenario assumes that from 2007 onwards potential output steadily increased at the potential growth rate recorded in that year. Latest observation: 2018.

Sources: European Commission, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 2018.

Potential output

10

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Actual outputPotential output: current estimate (European Commission)Potential output: linear projection

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Labour Capital

TFP Potential growth

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Real GDP, short-term indicators and estimates

(lhs: index, rhs: quarter-on-quarter % changes)

Supply breakdown (quarter-on-quarter % changes and contributions to growth)

Sources: Markit, Eurostat, June 2019 BMPE, ECB calculations. Latest observations: 2019Q1 for GDP, June 2019 for PMI and ESI.

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Note:The contributions of agriculture, energy and taxes less subsidies on production are not shown. Latest observations: 2019Q1.

Short-term outlook

11

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2016 2017 2018 2019

ConstructionIndustry excluding constructionServicesReal GDP

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

45

50

55

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Real GDP (rhs) ESI (lhs)

Composite PMI (lhs) June 2019 BMPE (rhs)

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Contributions to q-o-q growth of manufacturing output

(quarter-on-quarter % changes and contributions to growth)

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Notes: Manufacturing output refers to industrial production in the manufacturing sector. Contributions to growth are based on annual IP weights and are therefore approximate. Latest observation: 2019Q1.

Manufacturing and services

PMI manufacturing and services output (diffusion index, 50 = no change)

Sources: Markit. Latest observation: June 2019.

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Mar-2017 Sep-2017 Mar-2018 Sep-2018 Mar-2019

Chemicals & pharmaceuticalsComputers, electronics & optical equipmentOther manufacturing sectorsMotor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers

45

50

55

60

65

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Manufacturing Services

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Real private consumption and disposable income

(year-on-year % changes, pp contributions)

Consumer confidence (% balances, deviation from mean)

Sources: Eurostat, June 2019 BMPE, ECB calculations. Notes: All income components are deflated with the GDP deflator. The contribution from the terms of trade is proxied using the difference between the GDP and consumption deflators. Consumption and total disposable income are deflated with the consumption deflator. Latest observations: 2019Q1 for real consumption, 2018Q4 for other..

Sources: European Commission, ECB calculations. Latest observation: June 2019.

Private consumption and confidence

13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Terms of tradeDirect taxes, social contributions and transfersOperating surplus and property incomeCompensation of employeesReal disposable incomeReal consumption

-14-12-10

-8-6-4-202468

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Major purchases over next 12 monthsFinancial situation over last 12 monthsFinancial situation over next 12 monthsGeneral economic situation over next 12 monthsConsumer confidence

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Employment growth, unemployment rate and the PMI on emplyoment

(quarter-on-quarter growth rate, diffusion index and %)

Permanent and temporary employees (millions)

Sources: Eurostat, Markit. Note: The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expressed as a deviation from 50 divided by 10. Latest observations: 2019Q1 for employment growth and the unemployment rate, June 2019 for PMI.

Sources: Eurostat - EU-LFS. Note: 15-74 age group. Latest observations: 2018Q4.

Labour markets

14

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

permanent temporary (rhs)

7

8

9

10

11

12

13-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Employment growthPMI compositeUnemployment rate (rhs, reverse scale)

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Real residential investment and building construction confidence

(lhs: 2008Q1= 100, rhs: standardised index)

Business investment (real, annual % change)

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Note: Building construction confidence is standardised so as to have zero mean and unit standard deviation. It is expressed as a moving average of the current and two preceeding months. Latest observation: 2019Q1 for residential investment, June 2019 building construction confidence.

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 2019Q1.

Residential and business investment

15

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Real residential investment (lhs)Building construction confidence (rhs)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Machinery and equipment

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Euro area trade

Extra-euro area exports (volumes, 3mma annual %-changes, pp contribution)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations. Note: Latest observation April 2019 (United States, China, total), March 2019 (all other regions).

16

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

United States China Non-EA EU countries

Rest of the world Total

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Soft patches and recessions since 1970 (EUR trillions)

Sources: Eurostat, CEPR and AWM database. Note: Shaded areas indicate recessions/ soft patches. Latest observtaion: 2019Q1.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

Soft patches Recessions GDP

Soft patches

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Euro area: real GDP growth

Medium-term growth outlook

Source: ECB, June 2019 BMPE.

Medium-term growth outlook

18

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

• Over the medium term, the baseline assumes a gradual dissipation of global headwinds, allowing fundamental factors supporting the euro area expansion to regain traction

• Nevertheless, the fading out of some tailwinds would lead to slower growth towards the end of the projection horizon

• Altogether, real GDP growth is projected to decline from 1.8% in 2018 to 1.2% in 2019 before increasing to 1.4% in 2020 and 2021

• Compared with the March 2019 projections, real GDP growth in 2019 has been revised up slightly, as the upward impact of a stronger than expected first quarter more than offsets downward revisions to growth in the following quarters, mainly due to more persistent weakness in global trade. This implies a weaker carry-over into 2020. In addition, the medium-term projections have been revised down marginally.


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Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observation: 2018.

GDP growth across euro area countries (averages of annual percentage changes)

GDP growth heterogeneous across countries

Business cycle synchronisation

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

DE FR IT ES NL BE AT GR FI PT IE SK LU SI CY EE MT LT LV EuroArea

1999-2007 2008- 2018 1999-2018

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Real GDP (index: 2008Q1 = 100)

Business cycle correlations across euro area and G7 countries

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest obersvation: 2019Q1.

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and ECB calculations. Notes: The measure of business cycle correlation is a weighted average of pairwise cross-country correlations of real GDP growth, following Stock and Watson (2008). The pairwise correlations have been computed over a five-year rolling window. For the euro area two different groupings are considered: the “euro area” (all euro area countries excluding Malta and Ireland owing to data availability) and the “big five” euro area countries (the five largest euro area economies). Latest observation: 2019Q1. 21

Business cycle synchronisation

90

95

100

105

110

115

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

EA DE FR IT ES NL

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Euro area (17 countries)G7 countries“Big five” euro area countries

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Some basics: What is included in HICP headline inflation?

Energy, 10%

Unprocessed food, 4%

Processed food including alcohol

and tobacco, 15%

Non-energy industrial goods,

26%

Services, 44%

Source: Eurostat.

Weights of HICP components (in %)

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Euro area inflation developments in longer-term perspective

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: Latest observations are for June 2019 (flash estimates). The cumulative averages are the averages of the annual inflation rates from January 1999 to each month.

HICP and HICP excluding energy and food (annual percentage changes)

1.21.1

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

HICP

HICP excluding energy and food

HICP - cumulative average since 1999

HICP excl. energy and food - cumulative average since 1999

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Systematic over-prediction of headline inflation in 2014-2016

Evolution of projections for average headline inflation in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017

Source: Ciccarelli and Osbat (2017), “Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences”, ECB OP no. 181. Data sources: ECB, IMF, European Commission, OECD, Consensus Economics, Eurozone Barometer. Note: The horizontal axis shows the publication date of the forecast.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

2016 2017

HICP average for 2017 (Jan-Dec)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

2015 2016


-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

2014 2015


-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

2013 2014

ECB/Eurosystem (range) European CommissionIMF OECDSPF Eurozone BarometerConsensus ECB/EurosystemHICP average for 2014 (Jan-Dec)

2014 2015

2016 2017

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Headline inflation was suppressed by (unexpected) falls in commodity prices

Contributions to the decline in HICP inflation

(overall index: annual growth rates; and contributions in p.p.)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations. Note: Latest observation: June 2019 (flash estimates).The base period refers to the latest peak.

Brent crude oil, food and metals prices

(USD per barrel for oil; index food/metal)

Source: ECB. Notes: The index for metals is composed of Aluminium, Lead, Copper, Nickel, Zinc and Tin. Latest observations refer to 27 June 2019 for oil and to 21 June 2019 for food and metals.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Oil (USD/barrel) Food (2010=100)

Metals (2010=100)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EnergyFoodNEIGServicesHeadline HICPHICP - Base period (10/2011)

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Underlying inflation has remained muted ….

Measures of underlying inflation (annual percentage changes, percent)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Notes: The range includes exclusion-based measures, trimmed means and a weighted median. Latest observation: June 2019 (flash estimate) for HICP excluding energy and food and May 2019 for the rest.

Share of items with high/low inflation in HICP excluding food and energy

(unweighted share)

Sources: Eurostat and national statistical offices Notes: The coloured areas reflect the unweighted share of items in HICP excluding food and energy within the respective range. Latest observation: May 2019.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

<-1 -1<=π<0 0<=π<1 1<=π<2 >=2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HICP excluding energy and food

HICP excluding energy, food, travel-related items and clothing

Long-term average HICP excluding energy and food

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…. mainly driven by services inflation

HICP non-energy industrial goods (NEIG)

(annual percentage change, percentage point contributions)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observations: June 2019 (flash estimate) for HICP non-energy industrial goods, and May 2019 for the rest.

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Latest observations: June 2019 (flash estimate) for services HICP, and May 2019 for the rest.

HICP services (annual percentage change, percentage point contributions)

June 2019:0.2

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Durable goodsSemi-durable goodsNon-durable goodsNon-energy industrial goodsLong-term average since 1999

June 2019:1.6

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2013 2016 2019

Travel relatedRestaurantsHousingCommunicationsOtherServices HICPLong-term average (since 1999)

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Strong employment growth, but wage growth picked up only recently

Labour costs and unemployment developments

(lhs: annual percentage changes; rhs: percentage)

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 2019Q2 (based on May 2019) for unemployment rate and negotiated wages, and 2019Q1 for the rest.

Decomposition of wage developments (annual percentage changes, percentage point contributions,

quarterly data)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: The latest observation refers to 2019Q1. Dashed line reflects long-term average of compensation per employee since 1999Q1.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Wage driftSocial security contributionsNegotiated wagesCompensation per employee growthAverage compensation per employee growth since 19997

8

9

10

11

12

130.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Compensation per employee (lhs)Compensation per hour (lhs)Negotiated wages (lhs)Unemployment rate (rhs, inverted)


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HICPX inflation and the unemployment rate in the euro area (annual percentage changes and percent, in deviations from long term average)

Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, ECB staff calculations. Latest observation: 2018Q4. For details see: Drivers of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve perspective – ECB Economic Bulletin article 04/2019 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201904_02~d438b3e4d4.en.html#toc2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.07

8

9

10

11

12

131999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Unemployment rate (left-hand scale)HICPX inflation (right-hand scale)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

6 8 10 12

1999-2007 2008-2018

HIC

PX

infla

tion

Unemployment rate

Inflation developments from a Phillips curve perspective

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201904_02%7Ed438b3e4d4.en.html#toc2

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Specifying the Philips curve

Stylised decision tree for the specification of a reduced-form Phillips curve model

(annual percentage changes and percent, in deviations from long term average)

Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, ECB staff calculations. Latest observation: 2018Q4.

B. Economic slackUnemployment gapOutput gapBroad unemployment gap

C. ExpectationsA. Inflation measure Model-derived measuresTotal CPI Survey measures of:Exclusion-based indices ConsumersModel-derived core measures Professionals… Firms

…

short-term medium-term long-term

D. Supply-side shocksImport pricesOil pricesExchange rate…

Survey-based measures: (e.g. capacity utilisation)

For details see: Drivers of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve perspective – ECB Economic Bulletin article 04/2019 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201904_02~d438b3e4d4.en.html#toc2




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Decomposing HICPX inflation

Source: ECB calculations. Notes: The bars show average contributions across 550 models with different permutations of external price, economic slack and expectations measures. Contributions are derived as in Yellen, J. L., “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy”, speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, 24 September 2015 Latest observation: 2019Q1. For details see: Drivers of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve perspective – ECB Economic Bulletin article 04/2019 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201904_02~d438b3e4d4.en.html#toc2

Phillips curve-based decomposition of HICP inflation excluding energy

(annual percentage changes and percentage point contributions; all values in terms of deviations from their averages since 1999)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Economic slack/tightness Inflation ExpectationsExternal prices UnexplainedHICP excluding energy





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Why did inflation not pick up in tandem with the recovery of the economy?

Range of contributions of the main drivers to underlying inflation (annual percentage changes and percentage point contributions; all values in terms of deviations from their averages since 1999)

Sources: Eurostat, ECB staff calculations. Notes: The swathe shows the range of contributions of measures of economic slack/tightness/ external prices/ inflation expectations to underlying inflation across the 550 models that are estimated; the black dashed line shows the average contribution, which corresponds to the yellow bars in Chart 6. Contributions are derived as in Yellen, J. L., “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy”, speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, 24 September 2015. For details see: Drivers of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve perspective – ECB Economic Bulletin article 04/2019 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201904_02~d438b3e4d4.en.html#toc2

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Range of contributions (right-hand scale)

HICPX inflation

Average contribution of economic slack/tightness

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Range of contributions (right-hand scale)

HICPX inflation

Average contribution of external prices

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Range of contributionsHICPX inflationAverage contribution of inflation expectations




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Which structural drivers could have played a role for inflation developments?

Structural drivers of inflation

Demographics

Digitalisation/ E-commerce

Structural changes in the labour market and their impact on wage

growth

Globalisation

Structural change in the oil market

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An example – increasingly common pattern of inflation around the globe

Range of headline inflation in advanced and emerging economies over time

(annual percentage changes)

Headline inflation developments in OECD and EA countries


Source: Haver. Latest observations: The latest observation is for 2018 (annual data). Note: The interquartile range covers 50% of the samples of emerging and advanced economies. The sample includes 17 advanced economies (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United States) and 25 emerging economies (Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire and others), Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Israel, Jamaica, South Korea, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Nigeria, Paraguay, the Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey). Only countries for which data going back to 1970 are available have been included.

Sources: OECD, Eurostat, and ECB calculations Latest observations: June 2019 (flash estimate) for the Euro Area, and May 2019 for the non-euro area OECD countries. Monthly data. Note: Due to data availability the observation for May 2019 for the non-euro area OECD countries does not include Australia and New Zealand.

See for details: ECB Economic Bulletin 04/2017: Domestic and global drivers of inflation in the euro area

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Interquartile range of EMEInterquartile range of Advanced EconomiesMedian of EMEMedian of advanced economies

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

OECD (excluding euro area) headline Euro area headline HICP


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Outlook for euro area inflation until 2021

HICP and HICP excluding energy and food (annual percentage changes)

Sources: Eurostat, ECB staff calculations, Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections. Note: Latest observations are for June 2019 (flash estimates). The cumulative averages are the averages of the annual inflation rates from January 1999 to each month.

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

HICPHICP - cumulative average since 1999HICP June 2019 BMPEHICP excluding energy and foodHICP excl. energy and food - cumulative average since 1999HICPX June 2019 BMPE

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Survey-based measures of inflation expectations

Source: Eurostat, June 2019 BMPE, ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Notes: ECB SPF 2019Q2 survey conducted 18-22 of March 2019, ECB SPF 2019Q1 survey conducted 7-11 of January 2019.

Inflation path in the survey of professional forecasters 2019Q2


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

HICP SPF 2019Q2 SPF 2019Q1 June 2019 BMPE

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Summing up: Economic Analysis at the ECB Economic analysis as part of the information set to inform monetary policy decisions

Full set of information

Economic analysis

Monetary analysis

Governing Council takes monetary policy decisions based on

a unified overall assessment of the risks to price stability

Cross checking

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Documents

DG Economics Economic conditions, Gerrit Koester …...2019/07/01 · Note: Data for 2017, expressed in trillion current international $ PPP for GDP and thousands international $