Devon in 2038

and how should it affect our strategic planning now?

Report of the work of Devon Futures Group

Devon Futures• Who are we?

– Met Office Rob Varley– EDF Mike Davy– Devon & Cornwall Business Council Tim Jones– Devon Wildlife Trust Paul Gompertz– Environment Agency Paul Sadler– Dartington Hall Trust Vaughan Lindsay– Devon Community Council of Devon Jay Talbot– DCC strategic intelligence Pip Tucker– DCC Community Strategy Ian Hobbs– DCC Environment, Economy & Culture Edward Chorlton– Devon and Cornwall Housing Association Theresa

Butchers– DSP Caroline Rae– Facilitator Nicola Channon

What we tried to do

• We were asked to think about, and try to understand, what Devon might be like in the future.

• We heard evidence from experts in climate, energy, housing, transport, agriculture, and the environment

• We tried to think about what impact all this might have on our lives and what we should be doing now to respond

Work in progress

1979

What made us sit up and take notice?

South West Cumulative Sea Level Rise - 2002 Baseline

(Defra 2006)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140

Year

Sea L

evel

Ris

e (

mm

)

Natural or human induced?

UK impactsHeatwaves: Summer 2003

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug

no

. of

dea

ths

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

tem

per

atu

re o

C

Average daily deaths 1998-2002

ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003

Maximum temperature (London)

observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)

2003

2060s

2040s

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y (w

rt 1

961-

90)

°C

Devon impactsHeatwaves: The future

1951

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Axminster

2021

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Axminster

So what?• ‘Perfect storm’ of increasing demand for food, energy

& water at same time as adapting to and mitigating climate change – Implications for size/shape of sector – less oil more labour?– Implications for how land is used and managed –reduced

soil disturbance– Implications for protected areas– Implications for research and intelligence

Final UK Energy Consumption in TWh

Oil

Natural Gas

Electricity

Solid Fuels & others

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

In the past energy demand has mainly been driven by GDP and demographic growth

• GDP and population growth are the two main factors that have increase energy demand

• If this continued UK energy demand would increase slightly until 2030

• Electricity and solid fuel consumption should grow the fastest

Source: Global Insight 2008 European Energy and Environment Outlook (last actual year 2007).

+ 8.5%

But fighting Climate Change will have a high impact on energy demand

• Tackling climate change requires a step change in energy consumption.Government’s target is to cut Greenhouse Gases emissions by 80% in 2050 (compared to 1990 level)

• Decarbonising electricity is a key step towards the target.The Climate Change Committee believes the electricity sector can reduce its emissions by 90% by 2030 by using wind and nuclear generation.

• Low CO2 electricity will then make a major contribution to decarbonising other sectors by substituting fossil fuelsSource: Climate Change Committee, EDF Energy Analysis

UK CO2 emissions (million tonnes)

159

176

103

108

124

184

2006 emissions 2050 Target

Other(with non CO2 GHG)

Industry

Heat(Residential

and Commercial)

Transport(with Aviation& shipping)

Electricity

Total 80% reduction from 1990

Electricity

Reduction by 2030

Other points

• 8-10 year time lag between knowing what is true and then acting upon it

• Period over the next 30 years – not just about 2039 but also about how we get there.

• Fortune favours the prepared mind.

• So what?

• This is not just about climate change or reducing carbon, although they are important, it is about what we should be doing now to prepare for an uncertain future.

So what might Devon be like?

• Getting to work

well done for creating work hubs

still too much congestion

• Health and wellbeing– noticeably more

elderly people– not enough carers– booming senior

citizens social scene

• Adapting to climate change

- people more resilient to flooding; self-help worked

- difficult development choices not made

• Energy security

- local community combined heat and power embraced

- periodic blackouts for some, not for others

DSP ConferenceDecember 2039

Devon 2069 – are we ready?

Your job – in groups

• What can DSP do to plan for the scenarios in the future?

• Each group identify 3 items to feed back to the conference