Developments in International Agricultural Markets: Temporary or Permanent

Developments in International Agricultural Markets:

Temporary or Permanent

Martin HaworthDirector of Policy

The NFU champion British farming, and provide professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members

National Farmers’ Union of England and Wales

The last 25 years

• Oversupply in developed countries

• Falling real producer prices

• Food price deflation

• International trade tension

• Concerns about subsidy, import protection

& export competition


A dramatic change today

• Rapid rise in world commodity prices• Concerns about food price inflation (China, Russia)• Economic importance of agriculture

re-emerges• Food security an issue


Reasons for the Commodity Price explosion

Demand:• World population increases• Growing affluence (China, India)• Bio-energy

Supply:• Poor weather conditions• Land • Water scarcity


World price increases 2005-07

Wheat + 108Maize + 63Barley + 95Soybeans + 56Butter + 78Skimmed milk + 122Cheese + 71Poultry + 11Beef - 1Pork - 7Sugar - 2


World population growth

World population:

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

791 978 1262 1650 2521 5978 8909


Economic growth : India and China

• Growth +10% per annum since 2001

• Forecast to slow down, but not reverse


Consequences of growthIncrease in demand for protein & milk

- Example of China for milk

• "I have a dream to provide every Chinese, especially children, sufficient milk each day." – Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao

• Chinese milk consumption per capita per day increased from 27 kcalories in 2002 to 43 kcalories in 2005 (equivalent to just under 50ml)

• Consumption is increasing at an annualised growth rate of between 15% -20%

• The government wants daily milk consumption to rise to 500ml per person per day. (The US consumes 785ml of milk equivalent per capita per day)


Biofuel

Drivers for biofuel:

• Energy Security (USA, Germany)

• Green House Gases


Ambitious targets

USA: 5.4 to 35 billion gallons by 2017

= 320 million tonnes of maize (2007 harvest 332)

European Union: 20% renewable energy by 2020 10% transport fuel


Will these targets be met?

• There is a backlash (concerns about food, biodiversity, carbon impact etc.

• But, the issues of energy security and climate change are permanent

• Much depends on the price of oil

• And 2nd generation technology (cellulosic)


Weather issues

• Is the weather cyclical or structural?

La Nina means cold and dry conditions in the Midwest in early 2008

Good rains in Southern Africa in early 2008The growing conditions for winter wheat will

be poorThe Southern African maize harvest will be

good



Weather issues

• Global warming

The temperate regions will move towards the poles

Grain production in Canada, Russia and Argentina will increase but will fall in Australia

In general, crops will require more waterThe pace of desertification will increase

Water issues

Protein demand increases water demand:

Fresh Beef 1Kg = 15t of water Fresh Lamb 1kg = 10t of water Fresh Poultry 1Kg = 6t of water

Cereals 1 Kg = 1.5t of water Citrus 1Kg = 1t of water Palm Oil 1Kg = 2t of water Pulses, roots and tubers 1Kg = 1t of water


Water is running out

• The High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer supplies irrigation water to 12.7m acres of the US Midwest. Water is being extracted at 100x the replenishment rate. Sustainable depletion rate is 3maf per year – actual draw down is 18maf. SourceUCDavis

• Experts believe that in 17 years the Murray River will be too salty to drink. The Murray is one of Australia’s country's foremost river systems, responsible, along with the Darling River, for irrigating 40 percent of the country's crops. The growing of European-style crops is one of the main reasons for the degradation of the fresh water, experts say. The large amounts of irrigation that run into the ground dissolve the salt below into runoff. Source CSM


Water is running out - cont…

The Colorado and Rio Grande are dry for much of their length.

The Rio Grande goes dry 200 miles before its mouth.

The Indus has lost 90% of its flow over the past 60 years.

The Amu Darya and Syr Darya both fail to reach the Aral Sea, formerly the fourth largest body of fresh water on Earth.


Water is running out – cont… Iran, a country of 70 million people, is over-pumping its

aquifers by an average of 5 billion tons of water per year, the water equivalent of one third of its annual grain harvest.

In India’s North Gujarat state, the water table is falling by 6m per year. In Tamil Nadu, a state with more than 62 million people in southern India, wells are going dry almost everywhere and falling water tables have dried up 95% of the wells owned by small farmers, reducing the irrigated area in the state by half over the last decade.


Water and Land are running out

• Almost all the potential 0.7Gha potentially available for rain fed agriculture is currently in use as pasture.

• If global meat consumption rises to the current Western average of 80kg per person then an additional 2.5GHa of arable land would be required for fodder crops.

• Assuming an increase in feed lot production leaves the net available arable land available for crop production at 0.44 GHa. Half of this land lies in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Columbia


Are these things permanent or temporary?


In my view, permanent,but predictions can be wrong.

Consequences and conclusions

• North West Europe relatively favoured• Do we have to revisit agricultural

policies?• Is the balance between economy and

environment correct?


Consequences and conclusions – cont…

• Will consumer attitudes change (animal welfare, organic etc)

• Will carbon footprint/ labelling be an issue?

• Consequences for developing countries?


Developments in International Agricultural Markets:

Temporary or Permanent

Documents

Developments in International Agricultural Markets: Temporary or Permanent