Development trends and future

scenarios in Moldova

Results of the United Nations- World Bank joint mission to support SDG

Nationalization and integration into national development planning

Overview of the MAPS mission

• July 2017

• Joint collaborative effort of the UNDP, UNFPA, World Bank

• Involved participation of the Frederick S Pardee Center for international Futures

• Objective: • support the development of a SDGs implementation roadmap

• Identify potential SDGs ‘accelerators’

• propose measures to create policy coherence with specific focus on Moldova 2030 National Development Strategy

The Interim Report

Discusses development trends: poverty; inequalities; demography; governance; climate change; access to infrastructure and technology;

1Assesses relevant SDGs targets that can accelerate or constrain Moldova’s commitment to Agenda 2030;

2Explores 3 future development models and provides policy guidance

3

1. Growth and poverty

Poverty incidence

and inequality declined

against all relevant

measures

Economic growthhas been

pro-poor –welfare of

the bottom

40% grew faster than at the top

Remittances, pensions and non-

agricultural wages have

been the key sources of incomes growth.

As the poverty gets a more rural

face, the agricultural income has

been volatile

2. Health

Despite positive long-term trends in life expectancy,

malnutrition and infant and child mortality outcomes, the health outcomes remain poor.

Disease burden is heavily tilted towards noncommunicable

diseases and will remain so in the future.

Require developing “horizontal” health systems capable of providing general

services

3. Education

Average years of education grew from 8.4 years in 1990 to 10.1 years in 2015 and forecasted to reach 10.3 in 2030

90 percent of primary school students entering grade one survive to the final grade at the primary level.

Key bottlenecks at the upper secondary level and forecast to persist by 2030

4. Population

Integrating the SDGs into Moldova’s Planning Framework• Development of the Moldova 2030 NSD aligned to the

Global Agenda 2030 is underway

• Moldova prepared and agreed a set of national SDG indicators

• SDG Dashboard developed by the MAPS mission offers a simple and straightforward way to assess current situation. Each indicator is compared with target value for 2030 and classified into four groups:• Green—target value already achieved• Yellow—target value yet to be achieved, but the distance is

reasonable• Red—indicator value is so far from target value, that serious efforts

required to achieve it• Gray—data are not available or it is impossible to set target

SDG Dashboard for Moldova, most recent data

SDG Acceleration and Influential Targets

SDGs depend on each other, degree of mutual influence - context specific, although general patterns of

The MAPS identified a network of SDGs targets and established their mutual influence

Conducted the network analysis to identify highly influential targets by counting the number and strength of connections (outdegree)

Used dashboard to assess status of each target

Highly influential positive targets Green Targets

4.3. VET and University +186

10.1. Growth bottom 40 +170

9.c. Access to ICT +160

12.2. Sustainable management of natural resources+150

1.3. Social protection +142

More progress is required

Yellow targets

16.6. Develop institutions 616

8.3. Development-oriented policies 318

4.7. Knowledge and skills for Sustainable Development284

16.3. Rule of law 239

6.5. Integrated water resource management 239

Stumbling blocks

Red targets

16.5. Corruption and bribery -444

10.3. Eliminate discrimination -268

6.2. Sanitation and hygiene -198

4.4. Skills for employment -196

6.1. Safe water -161

Development scenarios

• Top 10 accelerators and decelerators were used as a basis to identify policy areas with productive impact on future development

• Developed three potential development pathway scenarios

• International Futures platform - an integrated model currently addressing over 40 of the SDG targets and indicators

MAPS scenarios

Scenario 1: Resilient Moldova

Expanding access to infrastructure, with particular focus WASH and ICT across the country

Improvements in Moldova’s health sector, with attention paid to noncommunicable disease

Scenario 2: Improved Governance

Reduction in corruption, improvements in government transparency and effectiveness.

Enhanced social and economic inclusiveness, through gender empowerment, more economic, civil and political freedom

Scenario 3: Integrated Push

Combines elements of 1 & 2 described above

Model an “integrated push” for Moldova’s development

Impact of scenarios

Indicator

Most

Recent

Data or

Estimate

Current

Path

2030

Resilience

2030

Governance

2030

Combine

d 2030

Percent of the population living

on less than $5.73 (2011 USD) per

day 15.60 7.25 6.69 5.90 5.37

Percentage of malnutrition

(weight for height <-2 SD) among

children under 5 2.20 2.23 1.81 2.21 1.79

Cardiovascular disease death rate

per thousand 6.7 8.2 7.1 8.2 7.1

Upper secondary education gross

enrollment rate - Total 84.6 84.7 95.0 85.5 95.5

Annual growth rate of real GDP

per capita 0.1 3.6 4.0 5.0 5.5

MAPS: key conclusions for NDS Moldova 2030

Integrated policy package is greater than

the sum of sector-specific interventions

Moldova’s GDP growth helped by remittances and social protection

scheme not sustainable

Policies to attract remittances are unlikely

to compensate for declining emigration.

People-centered design of public services – way to prevent corruption.