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69 Development of a Standard Model for Comprehensive Management Plans for Public Facilities, and Model Cases 1 Yuji Nemoto 2 Professor in the Faculty of Economics at Toyo University. Hideaki Fujiki 3 Research partner at Toyo University’s PPP Research Center. Abstract The aging of infrastructure and the expected budget shortage for renewal investment are recognized as serious problems by the majority of local governments throughout Japan. The national government has already drawn up a Basic Plan for Extending the Service Life of Infrastructure to clarify the measures to address these problems, and has requested local governments to draw up comprehensive management plans for public facilities, as local ac- tion plans based on the national basic plan. However, it is difficult for local governments to sort out their own public facilities across sectors and set priorities for them, considering the possibility of integration or abolition of some of those facilities. In view of such background, the authors created a standard model to enable local governments to draft their plans easily. In this model, the necessity of public facilities is assessed, by type of facility, from various aspects such as whether each facility functions as a necessary public service, whether it should be provided by the government, whether it is needed, and whether it needs to exist as an independent facility, and appropri- ate measures for the respective facilities are chosen from among options such as integration or abolition, replacement with intangible services, expansion of the service area, and con- version into multifunctional types. Public works also undergo an assessment process through which they are designated to be abolished or replaced with localized services, delivery ser- vices or IT. The concept of risk-based maintenance (RBM), i.e. assuming the service life of a public work according to its importance, is also introduced. In order to verify the effectiveness of the standard model, the authors conducted a simu- lation test in Kawagoe City, Saitama Prefecture, and found the following results. The budget shortage could be nearly entirely resolved by taking proactive measures such as the integration * 1 This report is a partial reorganization of the “Standard Model Proposal for the Formulation of Comprehensive Management Plans for Public Facilities and Example of Application” (Toyo University PPP Research Center Journal No. 5, March 2015) by Yuji Nemoto. * 2 Director at the Graduate School of Economics Public Private Partnership Course, the only Master’s degree in Japan that specializes in PPP (Public Private Partnership) and Head of the Research Center for PPP. In addition to being a member of the Cabinet Office PFI Promotion Committee and a member of the Social Capital Maintenance Strategy Subcommittee of the Min- istry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s Inquiry Commission on the Arrangement of Social Capital, he has also been a member of many committees regarding the reexamination of social infrastructure in many municipalities. * 3 Graduate of Toyo University’s Graduate School of Economics Public Private Partnership Course. Master’s degree (Eco- nomics). Participated as a committee member in the formulation of a case (Hadano City Public Facility Reallocation Plan) in Hadano City (Kanagawa Prefecture). Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, Public Policy Review, Vol.12, No.1, March 2016

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Development of a Standard Model for Comprehensive Management Plans for Public Facilities, and Model Cases*1

Yuji Nemoto*2

Professor in the Faculty of Economics at Toyo University.

Hideaki Fujiki*3

Research partner at Toyo University’s PPP Research Center.

AbstractThe aging of infrastructure and the expected budget shortage for renewal investment are

recognized as serious problems by the majority of local governments throughout Japan. The national government has already drawn up a Basic Plan for Extending the Service Life of Infrastructure to clarify the measures to address these problems, and has requested local governments to draw up comprehensive management plans for public facilities, as local ac-tion plans based on the national basic plan.

However, it is difficult for local governments to sort out their own public facilities across sectors and set priorities for them, considering the possibility of integration or abolition of some of those facilities. In view of such background, the authors created a standard model to enable local governments to draft their plans easily. In this model, the necessity of public facilities is assessed, by type of facility, from various aspects such as whether each facility functions as a necessary public service, whether it should be provided by the government, whether it is needed, and whether it needs to exist as an independent facility, and appropri-ate measures for the respective facilities are chosen from among options such as integration or abolition, replacement with intangible services, expansion of the service area, and con-version into multifunctional types. Public works also undergo an assessment process through which they are designated to be abolished or replaced with localized services, delivery ser-vices or IT. The concept of risk-based maintenance (RBM), i.e. assuming the service life of a public work according to its importance, is also introduced.

In order to verify the effectiveness of the standard model, the authors conducted a simu-lation test in Kawagoe City, Saitama Prefecture, and found the following results. The budget shortage could be nearly entirely resolved by taking proactive measures such as the integration

*1 This report is a partial reorganization of the “Standard Model Proposal for the Formulation of Comprehensive Management Plans for Public Facilities and Example of Application” (Toyo University PPP Research Center Journal No. 5, March 2015) by Yuji Nemoto.*2 Director at the Graduate School of Economics Public Private Partnership Course, the only Master’s degree in Japan that specializes in PPP (Public Private Partnership) and Head of the Research Center for PPP. In addition to being a member of the Cabinet Office PFI Promotion Committee and a member of the Social Capital Maintenance Strategy Subcommittee of the Min-istry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s Inquiry Commission on the Arrangement of Social Capital, he has also been a member of many committees regarding the reexamination of social infrastructure in many municipalities.*3 Graduate of Toyo University’s Graduate School of Economics Public Private Partnership Course. Master’s degree (Eco-nomics). Participated as a committee member in the formulation of a case (Hadano City Public Facility Reallocation Plan) in Hadano City (Kanagawa Prefecture).

Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, Public Policy Review, Vol.12, No.1, March 2016

I. Introduction

This paper is composed of five chapters including the current one. In Chapter II, titled “Policy Trends Concerning Re-examination of Social Infrastructure,” we review policy trends in examinations being carried out by related government departments as influenced by the test calculations submitted by the author (Nemoto) in 2010 to the Cabinet Office PFI Promotion Committee. In Chapter III, we explain the “Standard Model” formulated based on the authors’ knowledge. In Chaper IV, we explain the results of applying the “Standard Model” to an existing local authority (Kawagoe City). In Chapter V, we advocate ideal so-cial capital prevention policies that the government and local authorities should undertake in the future as a summary of this paper.

II. Policy Trends Concerning Reexamination of Social Infrastructure

II-1 Policy trends in the government concerning public facilities and infra-structure deterioration.

II-1-1 Test calculations at the Cabinet Office PFI Promotion Committee.The necessity of public facility and infrastructure prevention policies in our country has

long been debated, but as comprehensive and organized data on the demand for replacement investment did not exist, there was insufficient recognition of the importance and urgency of the issue.

The results of those estimates were exhibited in the data “The Issue of Lack of Funds for Replacement Investment Accompanying Social Capital Deterioration and a Proposal for the

or abolition of elementary or junior high schools (including the integration of an elementary school and a junior high school in the same area), and the relocation of the functions of small community centers and facilities into school facilities. Selling surplus land may also be conducive. On the other hand, the budget secured for roads, bridges and sewage works has recently been so small that whatever measures were taken, the budget shortage could not be resolved as long as the budget size was held at the current level.

Practical solutions to problems faced by individual local governments could not be found without taking into account specific facilities or numerical data in the assessment pro-cess. The test showed that the standard model is effective for such assessment. The authors hope that the standard model will help local governments implement their comprehensive management plans and that the national government will provide support for such local gov-ernments that are making sufficient efforts to resolve their budget shortage.

Keywords: Social infrastructure, risk-based maintenance (RBM), public-private partner-ship (PPP)

JEL Classification: H54, L33

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Application of PFI/PPP”1 submitted by committee member Nemoto as conference materials at the Cabinet Office PFI Promotion Committee held on April 19th, 2010.

The estimation method and results are as follows.

・�First, we calculated the physical quantity for each category. Specifically, public facili-ty total floor space (m2), paved road surface area (m2), number of bridges, waterworks (piping, km), sewers (piping, km).・�Next, we set the replacement price for each respectively, referencing the general mar-

ket rate and actual prices in certain municipalities. For service life, we used the statu-tory service life of a typical construction for each type.・�From the above, we calculated the annual replacement amount for each category as

physical quantity×price÷service life. We calculated the total replacement investment amount by totaling these.・�It came to ¥8.1 trillion per year.

These estimations are significant because they numerically show the size of the problem inherent in the issue of social capital replacement (in other words, the size of the effect on finances) and also because they use a method of calculating based on physical quantity. At the time, the Democratic Party was in power, and in the general elections held in 2009, the previous year, they announced as a policy statement a budget rearrangement from public works to welfare together with the catchphrase “From infrastructure to people.” And just as this was about to be implemented, the enormous lack of funds due to the deterioration of so-cial capital “already in existence” was pointed out at in the cabinet office inquiry committee. The Democratic Party administration was very responsive to this point, and the growth strat-egy behind decisions at the time (the subsequent “New Growth Strategy”) and policies on social capital deterioration in the policy trends of related government departments were re-alized. Also, as it is based on physical quantity, it became possible for each individual mu-nicipality (or other community unit) to calculate future replacement investment amounts us-ing the same method. This method was also incorporated into the replacement investment calculation software used by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and it is currently being widely introduced into municipalities all across the country.

II-1-2 Contents of the “New Growth Strategy”“The Strategic Establishment, Operation, and Maintenance of Social Capital” was re-

garded as the main theme in the “New Growth Strategy” that received cabinet approval on June 18th, 2010. In the conventional way of thinking, the intention was to realize growth strategies by newly establishing social capital such as railways, roads, seaports, and airports, but it may be regarded that the “New Growth Strategy” was a subset of the concept that the act itself of strategically conducting operation and maintenance of pre-existing social capi-tal, not establishing new ones, will lead to economic growth.

1 Reference resource 8 on the Cabinet Office PFI Promotion Committee website (http://www8.cao.go.jp/pfi/shiryo_a_23.html)

Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, Public Policy Review, Vol.12, No.1, March 2016

The “New Growth Strategy” clearly specifies “the elimination of the anticipated future demand to replace social capital in the nation and local municipalities” as an item to be im-plemented in 2011, and “the promotion of the creation of a plan concerning management such as the operation, maintenance, and replacement investment of social capital in the na-tion and local municipalities” as an item to be implemented by 2013.

II-1-3 Contents of the “Japan Revitalization Strategy -JAPAN is BACK-”The stance of including the idea that the act itself of strategically conducting operation

and maintenance of pre-existing social capital, not establishing new ones, will lead to eco-nomic growth was also incorporated into the “Japan Revitalization Strategy -JAPAN is BACK-” (approved by the cabinet on June 14th, 2013), which is the growth strategy formu-lated after the administration changed back to the Liberal Democratic Party in December 2012. The stance for achieving economic growth was further clarified, and in the “Strategic Market Creation Plan,” the second plan in the “Three Action Plans,” it is described as “Building safe, convenient and economical next-generation infrastructures”.

II-1-4 Formulation of a Basic Plan for Extending the Lifespan of InfrastructureIn October 2013, related government departments conducted an exchange of information

and ideas with the Cabinet Secretariat regarding policies for preventing infrastructure, and in addition to planning cooperation, a liaison conference was established between related government departments regarding the promotion of policies for infrastructure deterioration in order to examine and promote necessary measures. On November 25th of the same year, the Basic Plan for Extending the Lifespan of Infrastructure was approved. The Basic Plan for Extending the Lifespan of Infrastructure is directed at all types of infrastructure, and it is a three-tiered structure in which infrastructure managers (various government ministries and agencies, local authorities) formulate action plans based on this basic plan, and then formu-late plans for each facility separately based on the action plan. (Table 1).

II-1-5 Request to formulate Comprehensive Management Plans for public facilities On April 22nd, 2014, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications requested

that all local authorities formulate “Comprehensive Management Plans for Public Facilities” (hereafter called “Comprehensive Management Plans”). Comprehensive Management Plans are the equivalent of local action plans in the Basic Plan for Extending the Lifespan of Infra-structure, and local authorities are requested to formulate them within three years of 2014. As a financial support measure, removal loans (allocation rate 75%, no local allocation tax-es) were allowed from the beginning, but public facility optimization loans (appropriation rate 90%, tax inclusion rate 50%) and additional reallocation to local revitalization loans (appropriation rate 90%, rate of inclusion of local allocation taxes 30%) were started with the 2015 budget.

The Comprehensive Management Plans for Public Facilities is the first comprehensive policy regarding the issue of infrastructure deterioration in Japan. The authors have created

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Source: Created by the authors・�1) ~ 3) are necessary items required by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and all the re-

quirements must be met.  (Supplementary note) This is a permission requirement for the issue of local loans (so-called retirement loans)

necessary for the retirement of public facilities listed in the data published by the Minis-try of Internal Affairs and Communications. From among these, in regard to 1) Long-term nature of duration, “ten years or more” is written in the data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, but if the facility is not entirely deteriorated or if improvement investments to expand the lifespan have been made, then there is a good chance of missing the future replacement investment peak. Thus, this is interpreted to mean that test calculations themselves should be conducted to cover a roughly 50-year period, and then it is necessary to formulate a specific plan that is consistent over a long period based on those results that will last for at least ten years.

・�4) ~ 10) are recommended items originally proposed by the authors, and they are not requirements in the Comprehensive Management Plan. However, as you cannot realistically implement the plan without perform-ing these items, it is necessary to enhance these various points in the process of brushing up the Comprehen-sive Management Plan.

Table 1 Comprehensive Management Plan Guidelines

Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, Public Policy Review, Vol.12, No.1, March 2016

guidelines so that definite results may be obtained.

II-1-6 Basic policies for economic and fiscal management reform In regard to this issue, the “Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management Re-

form” released on June 30th, 2015, also lists the important points as follows.・�In order to suppress increases in stock adjustment, operation, maintenance, and replace-

ment costs, local authorities first need to organize fixed asset registers and introduce local public-accounting. Local authorities also need to organize information on administrative costs so that they and residents can easily compare them.・�They need to disclose costs publically, understand the opinions of the residents, and con-

sider the introduction of user-charges.・�Related government departments and local authorities need to cooperate appropriately.

Also, in addition to formulating a shared plan that is extensive enough to aggregate or re-duce facilities and accelerate optimal use of national public property, they should also conduct aggregation and revitalization through the Compact Plus Network along with the effective and efficient operation, maintenance, and replacement of facilities.・�In addition to making the maximum use of existing facilities by activities including con-

version to other uses: such as reorganizing lifestyle-based facilities, centralizing welfare and expanding efforts to reinvest the profit from selling existing assets, they should pro-mote the cultivation and expansion of the maintenance industry.

II-2 Related policy trends in the Ministry of land, Infrastructure and Trans-port - Location Optimization Planning System

The Location Optimization Planning System was established by the “Partial Revision of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban Reconstruction,” which took effect in Au-gust 2014.

According to pamphlet summarizing the Location Optimization Planning System, which is based on the “Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban Reconstruction”, created by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, the details behind the revision to the Act were explained as, “Realizing a healthy and pleasant living environment for the elderly and the generation raising children that provides peace of mind and making possible city management that is sustainable financially and economically, while taking into consid-eration the sudden reduction in population and the silvering of the population, are major is-sues for the future urban development of Japanese cities. In the midst of this, it is important to consider changing the structure of the entire city, including both welfare and transporta-tion, by measures such as locating medical and welfare facilities, commercial facilities and residences together so that residents, including the elderly, can access these lifestyle-conve-nience facilities by public transportation. This process should be undertaken while using the concepts in the ‘Compact City Plus Network’”. Also, the following matters were pointed out as the significance and role of the Location Optimization Planning System: 1) A master plan

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that takes a view of the entire city, 2) Unification of urban planning and public transporta-tion, 3) The application of Public Real Estate (PRE) in urban development, 4) Options to prevent the hollowing-out of urban areas, 5) A merger between urban planning and the in-duction of private facilities, 6) An action plan with a time axis, and 7) The autonomy of mu-nicipalities and broad adjustments for prefectures.

II-3 Related policy trends in the Ministry of Internal Af fairs and Communications

II-3-1 Examination by local public finance bureaus As a research project carried out by a related group in the Ministry of Internal Affairs

and Communications (Japanese Center for Local Autonomy), examinations were begun concerning specific measures to deal with the issue of maintaining and replacing the social capital controlled by local authorities, and the results were officially announced by publical-ly disclosing the report, “Research Study Report on the Financial Analysis of Local Authori-ties, ” and the Excel software used to calculate the costs necessary to replace social capital.

Also, the research findings from a comparative-analysis carried out in 2011 on the future replacement costs of facilities possessed by municipalities, such as schools and community centers, and infrastructure assets like roads, bridges, waterworks, and sewer systems were officially announced in March 2012.

II-3-2 Promotion of new reforms in local public-accounting“On Future Local Public-Accounting” (Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications

Notification dated May 23rd, 2014) was issued based on the “Research Report on the Future Promotion of New Reform in Local Public- Accounting,” which was collected on April 30th 2014. In the notification, it is written that, “The creation of financial statements by each lo-cal authority is progressing steadily, and most local municipalities have adopted the method from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reform model, which is a simple creation method using existing statistical data on settlements. Also, as genuine double-entry bookkeeping has yet to be introduced, there are issues such as doubt as to whether or not analysis has been performed for each category of projects and facilities and whether or not fixed asset ledgers, which play a part in the management of public facilities, are sufficiently well-organized.” As a public facility management promotion policy, it was made clear that creation of financial statements would be promoted according to unified standards in lieu of the conventional models (the Standard Model, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Commu-nications reform model).

In response to this, in addition to officially announcing the “Manual for Local Pub-lic-Accounting Based on Unified Standards,” “On Promoting the Provision of Local Pub-lic-Accounting Based on Unified Standards” (Minister of Internal Affairs and Communica-tions Notification) was issued on January 23rd, 2015. The document strongly requests the organization of fixed asset ledgers by text such as, “As a rule, all local authorities should create financial statements based on unified standards for the three year period from 2015 to

Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, Public Policy Review, Vol.12, No.1, March 2016

2017, referring also to applicable manuals, and pay special care so that the statements may actively be used in budget planning. In particular, it would be preferable for local munici-palities that have yet to organize their fixed asset ledger so that it is usable in policies for the prevention of public facilities to organize the ledger as soon as possible.” The document also clarifies the nation’s support by such text as, “It is scheduled that standard software will be supplied for free. Also, for a certain amount of the expenses required in organizing the fixed asset ledger, special tax measures will be enacted from this year.”

II-3-3 Expanding the application of municipal utility accountingThe Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications issued the notification “Points of

Attention in Managing Municipal Utilities” (dated August 26th, 2014) under the joint signa-tures of the Municipal Utility Section Chief, the Municipal Utility Management Director, and the Utility Management Associate Director. Together with this notification, as a refer-ence to use in practice, they sent to all local municipalities the “Road Map for Expanding the Application of Municipal Utility Accounting,” which summarizes the way of thinking behind the efforts of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on expanding the application of municipal utility accounting in the future.

In the “Road Map for Expanding the Application of Municipal Utility Accounting,” sewage projects and simple waterworks projects are indicated as priority projects in parallel with promoting the organization of local public-accounting, and it is written that those mu-nicipalities with populations over 30,000 people are to switch to municipal utility account-ing within the period of intensive action (from 2015 to 2019) and those with populations of less than 30,000 people should also switch if possible.

III. Standard Model

As mentioned in the previous chapter, national policy has drastically changed direction. However, it is not so easy for municipalities that own the largest amount of public facilities and public works infrastructure. That is because each public facility and public works infra-structure item is necessary for reasons unique to it and has users that require it. If you as-sume that listening to those opinions is the job of local administrations (which, in actuality, it is), then is would be extremely difficult for administrative officers to formulate a solution to this problem themselves. Even if there were a nominal plan, it would not be actionable, and in the end the issue would only get postponed.

The authors have devised a standard way of thinking, based on an awareness of the is-sues, which will allow administrative officers to formulate a preliminary draft easily, and have presented this as the Toyo University PPP Research Center’s Standard Model (hereafter called the “Standard Model”).

It goes without saying that this Standard Model is not the government’s official opinion. However, it is based on past research by the authors and the Toyo University PPP Research Center, and we think that has good potential for use as a foundation for municipalities creat-

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ing preliminary drafts. The Standard Model is composed of a model for public facilities and a model for public works infrastructure (roads, bridges, waterworks, sewer systems, etc.).

III-1 Model for public facilities

First, we will explain the model for public facilities.The model for public facilities consist of two parts: 1) Standards by category (Consider

the necessity of public services provided by each specific type of public facility such as schools, community centers, and libraries, the possibility of duties being taken over by the private sector and citizens, and the scope of usage, and then assign measures such as soften-ing, expansion, and multi-functionalization.) and 2) Cross-cutting Standards (Establish poli-cies for extending the lifespan that can be commonly used by PFI/ Designated administra-tors for facilities that will continue to be maintained.).

III-1-1 Standards by category of public facility (Table 2)(1) Facilities that inherently lack necessity as a public service must be abolished.

First, it is necessary to simply abolish the facilities and functions of public services that lack necessity. In addition to facilities that have already been abolished within a municipali-ty or for which abolishment has been determined, it is preferable to deliberate within the municipality and establish which facilities are to be abolished when formulating a Compre-hensive Management Plan.

(2) Facilities that are necessary as a public service, but that do not require a public facility must be softened.This means using facilities owned by the private sector or civilians, or switching to a

service that (as much as possible) does not require the use of a facility. In this case, it is called softening because the municipality does not own the facility itself.

A: Softening (Private sector transfer) � This means transferring ownership of the facility to the private sector, and entrust-

ing all further operation, maintenance, and management to the private sector, as well as having citizens use private facilities that provide similar services and assisting with usage fees as necessary. The targeted facility types are assumed to be kindergartens, nursery schools, day care centers, welfare facilities for the elderly (facilities targeted for nursery insurance, etc.), public housing, small-scale sports facilities, and public hospitals. As it is not always possible to supply private business operators in all areas, the facility category being targeted should be changed depending on the situation in the area, but if there is no private business operator who can take over the duties, it should be abolished, expanded, or multi-functionalized, not simply maintained. Public housing itself may be privatized, and another method is to have residents move into empty rooms in private sector residences and subsidize the rent. The subsidy rate

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should reflect the policy of the municipality, including other categories. When it is not necessary to subsidize (subsidy rate 0%) and when it is necessary to subsidize fully (100%), the user-charges should be as before. However, as subsidies from the national and prefectural levels can be expected, it is thought that the base burden on the mu-nicipality will decrease (30~70%). Which subsidies are assigned will depend on the municipality’s subsidy system, so it should be established separately for each munici-pality. There is merit even in the case of 100% subsidy as the burden will decrease as the number of users decreases in the future.

B: Softening (Civic transfer) � This is a method of transferring facilities to the citizens (neighborhoods, etc.). Gen-

erally, this is done at no charge. As citizens perform operation and maintenance after the transfer, operation, maintenance, and management costs become zero. The target-ed facility types are assumed to be meeting halls, etc. established in the district. As a rule, the municipality will bear no burden in the future if the facility is replaced, but, if the municipality has a system for providing aid (roughly 50%), then that should be taken into account. If softening (civic transfer) is not chosen, then the function should be taken over by a school, etc. after reducing the scale to be in line with other meeting hall facilities (multi-functionalization will be mentioned later).

C: Softening (Alternative service) � This is the method of supplying the same type of public service using completely

different methods using delivery and IT. For libraries this is the equivalent of travel-ing libraries and electronic libraries, and in medicine, it is the equivalent of remote medicine. As the service style is completely different, it is not realistic to assume that all existing facilities should be changed, so it is not taken into account in the Standard Model, but it is possible to incorporate it partially by means such as switching to trav-eling libraries for depopulated villages and it should likely be promoted.

(3) Facilities that are necessary both as a public service and as a facility, but that do not need to be independent facilities must be expanded and multi-functionalized.

A: Facilities that residents from other areas are able to use must be expanded. � For facilities that are generally used not only by the residents of the municipality

concerned but also by the residents of other municipalities, each municipality should not have their own separate facility. This is a method of reducing the burden through municipalities sharing ownership or assigning roles and responsibilities. This category is assumed to include large halls, general athletic facilities (playing fields and gymna-siums), garbage disposal facilities, public hospitals, and central libraries. And it would be appropriate to include prefectural and national facilities of the same categories, not only those between municipalities.

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B: Facilities that have a single function and do not need to be independent must be multi-functionalized.

 � This the method of multi-functionalizing public facilities. When each facility is es-tablished independently, then common facilities such as entranceways, hallways, staircases, restrooms, and kitchenettes all need to be built separately, but these are shared in multi-functional facilities, making substantial reductions possible. With multi-functionalization, it is necessary to consider separately the central facilities and the function transfer facility that transfers functions to the applicable facility. Schools and main government buildings, which are large-scale and necessary as public ser-vices, are appropriate as central facilities. In the case of centralized school facilities, other comparatively small-scale facilities such as regional community centers, region-al libraries, day-care centers, and welfare facilities for the elderly should be regarded as function transfer facilities, and their functions should be transferred to the central facility.

(4) ��Facilities that are necessary both as a public service and as a facility, but that need to be reduced in volume must be combined and reorganized.

A: Reorganizing schools � As the number of students is estimated to drop drastically, maintaining school facil-

ities as they currently are will become an obstacle to providing students with the fair educational environment they rightfully deserve. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology announced the following guidelines in the “Hand-book on the Appropriate Scale and Placement of Elementary and Junior High Schools” released in January 2015:  �“(At smallest) Required Level”: (Elementary school: one or more classes per grade (six

or more classes), Junior high school: two or more classes per grade (six or more class-es). “Desired Level”: (Elementary school: two or more classes per grade (twelve or more classes), Junior high school: nine or more grades). These guidelines have also been incorporated into the Standard Model. Based on the guidelines for the standard number of children in one class (Elementary school 1st~2nd grade: 35 children, 3rd~6th grade and JHS: 40 children) and the aforementioned guidelines, it is as follows.� ・The target standard for reorganizing elementary schools is 235 students or less in the entire school.� “235 elementary school students” is the “level to avoid having only a single class” af-ter arranging classes based on standards from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology. � In the case of junior high schools, the level is nine classes according to the above standards, but the situation in most municipalities is “Two elementary schools ⇒ One junior high school.” As the community is formed by this, they should be established at the same number of children as elementary schools.

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� ・The target standard for reorganizing junior high schools is 235 students or less in the entire school.� On the other hand, when it is realistically difficult to apply this standard in semi-mountainous regions, it is allowable to adopt a standard of 117 children, which is half of the above standard, as an abnormal standard. In other words, it could be said that, for elementary schools, this standard is to avoid the occurrence of a single class in each grade. It is undesirable to maintain small-scale schools lower than this standard as it forces students into small-scale educational environments, and in the long-term, it is thought that the way this should be solved is by re-examining the way people live such as by promotion of a move toward centralized living (compact cities). � Before beginning specific examinations, schools that fall below the guideline of 235 children, based on the projected future number of students by school, should be targeted for reorganization. � Due to reorganization, children in the school districts of reorganized schools will have to attend a remaining school. Incidentally, according to the current standards from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, the maximum travel distance for elementary schools is 4km, and for junior high schools, it is 6km. Also, ac-cording to the aforementioned handbook, if this is exceeded, the travel time to school should be less than one hour. In this case, an alternative method such as a school bus2 is assumed, and the cost of which should be taken in to account.

B: Unifying elementary and junior high schools � It is possible to unify elementary and junior high schools when the elementary

school is comparatively close or when the school district is unified. Libraries, music rooms, art rooms, and gymnasiums should be used commonly as much as possible af-ter schools are unified3. Surplus portions after unification should be used to transfer the functions of facilities in the area other than schools (reference the multi-function-alization mentioned later). The elementary and junior high schools themselves remain and through transferring small-scale facility functions to unified schools, they can be expected to enhance their functions as regional centers, so this is a method that is easy for area residents to accept. The drawbacks of the unification method are that it is lim-ited in comparison to reorganization and it will not be a decisive factor in municipali-ties that are drastically under-funded. In addition, the drawbacks inherent to the origi-nal problem of being small-scale, which is the original problem, are not resolved.

2 It is different depending on whether or not vehicles and drivers can be secured, but generally, it is assumed to cost ¥5~10 million annually.3 In fall of 2014, the Department of Architecture in the Faculty of Sciences and Engineering at Toyo University conducted a social experiment project in Kawagoe City in Saitama Prefecture in which they conducted a competition among third graders to design a unified elementary and junior high school. In the competition, it was assumed that the total area of the elementary and junior high school would be reduced by roughly 20%.

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C: Common use for similar functions � There are many facilities that have different names but the same function. For ex-

ample, for the function of meeting halls, in addition to civic centers, assembly halls, and community centers, there are government buildings, schools, and libraries. Also, music rooms, food preparation rooms, libraries, and workshops have similar functions in elementary schools, junior high schools, community centers, and libraries. This is a method to reduce the necessary overall amount of these facilities. The guidelines for reduction reference the average operating ratio in the area. For example, the idea is to reduce the gap between the operating ratio and the proper operating ratio (roughly 80%).

Source: Created by the authors

Table 2 Standards by Category of Public Facility

III-1-2 Cross-cutting standards for public facilities(1) Extending lifespan

This is the method of improving facilities that are to be maintained through expansion or multi-functionalization according to the standards by category in order to extend their lifes-pan. Rushing to extend the lifespan of facilities that do not have a clear cut reason to exist should be sincerely avoided. When extending lifespan, improvements to extend lifespan should be conducted at the 30 year mark, and the facility should be rebuilt at the 60 year mark, based on the handbook on improvements to extend the lifespan of school facilities from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology.

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(2) Preventative maintenance comprehensive consignmentThis is the method of switching the operation and maintenance of public facilities from

the current corrective maintenance to preventative maintenance. The effects of preventative maintenance on extending lifespan have already been taken into account in the previously mentioned improvements to extend lifespan, and so we will not go into the effects of pre-ventative maintenance on its own. However, a merit of scale can be expected by comprehen-sively performing preventative maintenance on numerous facilities. This is because the pri-vate operator that accepts the comprehensive consignment will be able to devise various ways to improve cost-effectiveness. Based on empirical values, a 10% reduction is standard.

(3) Public real estateSurplus real estate is generated due to the abolishment, softening, expansion, and

multi-functionalization in the standards by category. The method of selling or renting out these plots of land and buildings is called public real estate. Specifically designate the plots of land to be targeted, and estimate according to the publically assessed value of the land.

(4) PFI/Designated administratorThis applies the narrow definition of PPP (public service type). PFI should be used when

making replacements4. A designated administrator should be introduced for existing facili-ties5. Space management is the method of streamlining space in government buildings, etc.6 Factors that cause operational inefficiency have been pointed out such as meeting rooms in government buildings typically being decentralized and documents often being stored in working spaces.

(5) Energy managementThis is the method of streamlining and reducing the energy used. The so-called ESCO

falls under this. If the light, heating, and water utility costs are unclear for each facility, then first decide an overall broad rate, and then reduce operating and maintenance costs by that amount7.

(6) Increasing the cost to citizensThis is the method of increasing fees. When increasing fees for each facility separately,

4 Referencing the VFM report released by the cabinet office, on average, a 5% reduction is assumed, and a method of uniform-ly reducing the entire cost by 5% is proposed. A roughly 10% VFM can be estimated for the facilities this will apply to, but as this cannot be introduced for all facilities, on the whole, it is assumed to be 5%.5 The designated administrator does not own the facility, so a method of reducing operating costs by 10% is proposed. In many cases, operation and maintenance are also actually consigned, but it is thought that operation and maintenance will be taken into account by the previously mentioned improvements to extend lifespan or comprehensive consignment of preventative maintenance.6 Taking the results into consideration, floor space can be reduced by 10% in government buildings, etc. In the future, it will be necessary to reduce floor space in government buildings in proportion to the population.7 For example, if it is assumed to be 10% of the light, heating, and water utility costs, then the reduction rate becomes opera-tion and maintenance costs×10%×10%.

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decide what percentage of the operation and maintenance costs will be covered, and then the operation and maintenance costs should be reduced by that amount. When not reconsidering the cost to citizens for each facility, it should be calculated by dividing the final amount lacking by the number of households. If this type of reorganization proves insufficient, it is possible to explain to the citizens that there will still be considerable cost for them and get their understanding.

III-2 Model regarding public works infrastructure

Public works infrastructure uses standards by category and cross-cutting standards simi-lar to public facilities.

III-2-1 Standards by category for public works infrastructure (Table 3)(1) Infrastructure that inherently lacks necessity should be abolished

First, it is necessary to simply abolish the facilities and functions of infrastructure that lack necessity. In addition to infrastructure that has already been abolished within a munici-pality or for which abolishment has been determined, it is preferable to deliberate within the municipality and establish which infrastructure is to be abolished when formulating a Com-prehensive Management Plan. However, this is not typically assumed, and so it is not ad-dressed in the model.

(2) Infrastructure that is necessary but for which alternative services exist should be decen-tralized, softened, or compacted.This is the method of alternating infrastructure’s function with a different service. It is

divided into three parts: Decentralized processing, delivery and virtualization, and compact-ing.

A: Decentralized processing � This means changing from a network style to a style of processing separately for

each region. Examples include: changing waterworks to sewage-only waterworks, a public sewage system to joint water waste treatment, and electricity and gas to reus-able energy.

B: Softening (Delivery, IT) � This is the method of delivering service or using IT. Changing water pipes to water

delivery truck, etc. fall under this.

C: Compacting � This is the method of urging the population to live closer together. Current public

works infrastructure in Japan starts with the locations where people currently live and operates on the concept of connecting them with network infrastructure. This way of

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thinking will cause the cost per person to increase as the population decreases in the future. In response to this, the assumption of people changing their location is the idea of transfer. Compact cities and transferring to elevated ground fall under this.

(3) Infrastructure that is necessary but exists in excessive amounts should be culled.This is the method of partially abolishing complicated and surplus infrastructure. This is

the method of using the diffusion rate of waterworks and sewage systems of a point in the past where the diffusion rate of waterworks and sewage systems was roughly equal to the current diffusion rate as an appropriate rate and lowering the diffusion rate per person in a population to the assigned rate.

(4) Infrastructure that is necessary and has no alternative service should be handled with RBM.Most public works infrastructure is highly necessary, and there exist no alternative ser-

vices. In response to this, Risk Based Management (RBM) should be introduced. Specifical-ly, the following ideas should be adopted.

Each infrastructure category, such as roads, bridges, waterworks, and sewage systems, is classified into [Class A], [Class B], and [Class C] depending on the size of the social dam-age (importance) should sections and functions that easily deteriorate become damaged.

[Class A] is high importance. Damage should be minimized, so replacement should be carried out according to service life. For example, in the case of ordinary roads, the pave-ment on important main roads on which large truck traffic is particularly severe should be redone every 15 years. [Class B] is less important than Class A, and slight damage is accept-able. These can be used for 150% of the standard service life. In the case of ordinary roads, the pavement on main roads other than important main roads should be redone every 23 years. [Class C] is even less important that Class B, and it is thought that minimal operation and maintenance is sufficient as long as there is major damage to the lives and property of users. The service life is assumed to be twice as long. In the case of ordinary roads, the pavement on minor roads for daily living should be redone every 30 years.

The effects of RBM are assumed to extend to service life only8.Three classifications are set in the municipality. When the weight of [Class A] is in-

creased, there is the possibility of a drop in infrastructure safety. Conversely, when the weight of [Class C] is increased, budget deficits are not easily resolved, and in the end, there is the issue that more infrastructure is abolished. No matter how it was determined, there is the possibility of a more considerable drop in amount than with the current assumption, which is calculated as though everything were [Class A]. Conversely, there also exists the method of establishing a combination of three rational classifications after determining 8 Strictly speaking, it is wide-ranging and includes things that lengthen service life, reduce operational and maintenance costs, and reduce large-scale repair costs, but at the present time, the scientific knowledge necessary to express these systematically has not been sufficiently accumulated, and so we have decided to set these assumptions. In the future, we will reflect knowl-edge sequentially as it is accumulated.

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guidelines for the amount of reduction.

III-2-2 Cross-cutting standards for public works infrastructure (Table 4)(1) Extending lifespan

It is thought that typical lifespan extension is incorporated in RBM and the following comprehensive consignment. Lifespan extension, as mentioned here, refers to changing the service life and value of infrastructure when replacing it with long-lasting items at the time of replacement. For example, in the case of water pipes, existing pipes typically have a 40-year service life, but this would be a case of changing those for pipes with an 80-year service life.

(2) PFI/Designated administratorPFI should be used in replacement facilities, and VFM (all items of expenditure) should

be estimated, as is the case with public facilities. In the case of existing facilities, designated administrators may be introduced, but they perform operations and maintenance autono-mously, and the effectiveness should be understood using the following comprehensive con-signment. According to the Revised PFI Act, water and sewage services are a target of con-cession, and it is postulated that VFM will not have an influence.

(3) Preventative maintenance comprehensive consignment Operational and maintenance costs should be reduced, as with public facilities.

Source: Created by the authors

Table 3Standard Model for Public Works Infrastructure

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(4) Energy managementLight, heat, and water utility costs should be reduced, as with public facilities.

(5) Increasing the cost to citizensThe fees for water and sewage services should be raised. The final amount lacking

should be divided by the number of households.

IV. Application Example of Standard Model (Kawagoe City, Saitama Prefecture)

In 2014, the Toyo University PPP Research Center preformed an application study of the Standard Model in Kawagoe City in Saitama Prefecture with the support of the Japan Foun-dation for Regional Vitalization.

IV-1 Establishing the Kawagoe City model

IV-1-1 Calculating the budget deficit rate for future replacement investmentFirst, we calculated the budget deficit rate for future replacement investment. The bud-

get deficit rate for future replacement investment is calculated as the securable budget amount ÷ the budget amount necessary for future replacement investment. It was developed as a method of understanding the issue of deteriorating social capital on a micro scale, and it is also incorporated into software supplied by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Commu-nications.

The budget amount necessary for future replacement investment refers to the “budget necessary to replace the current public facilities and infrastructure in the same physical

Source: Created by the authors

Table 4Cross-cutting Standards for public Facilities and public Works Infrastructure

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quantity at the point they reach the end of their respective service lives.” The physical quan-tities used in the calculations were calculated by area for public facilities, roads, bridges, and by distance for water system and sewage system pipes, and we used the data held by each municipality. Similarly, for the year of acquisition, we are using the municipality’s data, and it is assumed that the same physical quantity will be replaced at the point they reach their statutory service lives. For the unit price when converting to money, we are using the standard unit price in the aforementioned software from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Year of construction, scale (by area for public facilities, roads, bridg-es, and by distance for water system and sewage system pipes), and replacement unit price are broadly set, so it is characterized by the results also being broadly calculated. In actuali-ty, various measures are being taken, but we assume a natural situation in which no mea-sures are being taken. The effectiveness of the measures is calculated after measures have been specifically determined as mentioned below.

The securable budget amount refers to the budget usable for future replacement invest-ment. It is difficult to predict future securable budget amounts, so we assume that past re-sults will continue in the future. The software from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is thought to use the results of the last five years. When considering the fu-ture reduction in population, it is somewhat risky to assume that the past results will contin-ue in the future, but we think that the influence of the reduction in population is an issue to be understood separately. The actual investment expenditures often include items of expen-diture that will need to be routinely paid for in the future such as operational and mainte-nance costs, and since these cannot be used for replacement investments, we examined indi-vidual expenditure items in the municipalities’ expenditure lists, and limited calculations to only items that seemed possible to allot to future replacement investment.

When we conducted the calculations according to the above procedure, the future replace-ment investment budget deficit rate was test-calculated to be 62.2% for public facilities and 55.7% for all social capital, including public works infrastructure. This means that only 62.2% of the current public facilities and 55.7% of all social capital will be able to be replaced.

IV-1-2 Establishing the Kawagoe City modelThe above conclusion is based on the assumption that “they will simply be replaced on

the same scale with nothing else being done.” Due to a substantial budget deficit, it goes without saying that some measure must be taken. We established the measures that must be taken in Kawagoe City referencing the aforementioned Standard Model. For public facili-ties, we determined guidelines based on category elementary and junior high schools with the largest area. Specifically, the following two plans:

Plan A: Unification of elementary and junior high schools (Unify elementary and junior high schools located within 1km of each other within the same region.)

A characteristic of this city is that there are many cases of elementary schools and junior high schools in close proximity to each other. 38 of the 54 elementary and junior high

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schools are located within a 1km distance from each other. This is because this city (and the towns and villages before merger) has a history of building elementary schools and junior high schools together as a set as regional centers. Plan A respects this fact, and in order to make the unified elementary and junior high school into a hub, we decided to transfer the functions of small-scale facilities in the vicinity in addition to setting the assumption that the total floor space of the elementary and junior high school will be reduced by 20%. The mer-its of Plan A are that reasonable costs are predicted in more than 70% of all school facilities and that elementary and junior high schools will be maintained. Moreover, schools that were not targeted for unification under Plan A were targeted for reorganization. (Only one facility)

Source: Created by the authors

Figure 1Location of elementary and junior High schools in Kawagoe City

Plan B: Reorganization of elementary and junior high schools (the 235-person rule)Reorganization is in accordance with the rule that there needs to be at least 235 people.

The merit of Plan B is that a scale of more than 235 people can be achieved and the issue of being small-scale will be resolved. There were five schools targeted for reorganization ac-cording to this rule. Among schools not targeted for reorganization, we decided to unify schools that were located within a 1km distance from each other.

As mentioned above, Plan A is “unification of elementary and junior high schools takes precedence, and then reorganization,” whereas Plan B is “reorganization takes precedence, and then unification of elementary and junior high schools.” In either case, in addition to

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transferring the functions of small-scale facilities in the region and making the facilities into regional centers, the facilities that were transferred are abolished or sold.

Other important assumptions are as follows.1) PFI is to be adopted when all buildings, including schools, are being rebuilt, and a VFM9

of 5% should be incorporated.2) ��Surplus land generated by the unification of elementary and junior high schools, reorgani-

zation, and transferring of functions should be sold at the official land price. However, the surface volume of the land and buildings must actually meet the city planning require-ments, so we calculated the area for the school from the number of students according to the assistance standards from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, and we conducted the examination so that it would become more realistic by delaying the sale of land scheduled to be sold when the floor-area ratios of unified and/or transferred school buildings exceeded a certain point due to unifying and reorganizing, and by using the land for facility construction (in other words, reducing the sale of land).

3) We targeted day-care centers and public housing for softening (private sector transfer), and although financial expenditures were kept constant in order to maintain user-charges for the time being, and although financial expenditures were kept constant in order to maintain user-fee levels for the time being, the total fees will decrease as the population decreases in the future.

4) We targeted general athletic facilities and large halls for expansion, and we reduced (by 17%) the amount of population inflow from other cities based on the idea that it should be reduced by requesting other cities to share the burden.

5) As government buildings should have their usage examined, this research examined no specific plan, but it is predicted that the burden will decrease as the population decreases in the future.

6) On the topic of public works infrastructure, a Lifespan Extending Repair Plan has already been formulated for bridges (15m and longer) and it is evaluated to be based on technical knowledge. We incorporated the 10% LCC reduction that the plan predicts.

7) We adopted RBM for other bridges, roads, waterworks, and sewage systems. Specifically, for roads, we determined important main roads to be Class A, other roads to be Class B, and daily life roads to be Class C. For bridges, we determined bridges of 15m or shorter to be Class B. For water pipes, we determined intake pipes to be Class A, water mains and distributing pipes to be Class B. For sewage system pipes, we determined main lines to be Class A, and branch lines to be Class B. The influence of broken bridges, waterworks, and sewage systems is estimated to be large, so we did not set Class C.

9 V Value For Money (The cost (PFI-LCC) reduction rate when everything is implemented by PFI operators compared to the costs when implementing public projects.)

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IV-2 Simulation results

Table 5 shows the simulation results. We will comment sequentially.

Table 5Results of Kawagoe City Simulation

Source: Simulation results based on Toyo University PPP Research Center’s simulation software

1) In regard to public facilities, both Plan A and Plan B were drastically revised, and the budget deficit is solved with Plan B, and nearly solved with Plan A. The reason is because all conceivable options were included such as unification of elementary and junior high schools, reorganization, multi-functionalization (transfer of functions), expansion, soften-ing, the introduction of PFI into rebuilt facilities, and selling surplus land. It can be said that the Standard Model is extremely effective in regard to public facilities.

2) In other words, budget deficits can finally be solved, even in Kawagoe where there has been little decrease in population and where land selling prices are high. It could be said that a marked response is necessary in other municipalities too.

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3) Comparing Plan A and Plan B, they are in close competition with no differences. Intui-tively, it could be estimated that reorganizing, including abolishing facilities, will have a larger effect, but in the end, there was no difference. This is because, in Kawagoe City, it is common for elementary and junior high schools to be located near each other, and be-cause there were few schools targeted for reorganization (five schools). This is a special situation, and it is necessary to caution that typically there is no way that unifying ele-mentary and junior high schools will have the same effect as reorganization.

4) A substantial budget deficit remained for roads, bridges and sewage systems even after the Lifespan Extending Repair Plan and RBM. In regard to roads and bridges, this is be-cause there have been few investments made in recent years, including building new buildings, and the securable budget amount is extremely small. The deficit would not be solved even if everything were to be considered Class C according to RBM. In other words, this suggests that a more effective method of securing the budget for roads and bridges would be to further reduce public facilities that are targeted for the same ordinary accounting.

5) Conversely, RBM has a large effect on waterworks, and budget deficits can be solved. The reason budget deficits for waterworks are solved is because, unlike with other cate-gories, past investments had been conducted in a level style, not in a pyramid style. Since, even in recent years, a considerable budget has been secured, the future replacement in-vestment budget would also be secured.

IV-3 Citizen Questionnaire

In the Kawagoe survey, we conducted a random draw questionnaire in order to broadly collect the opinions of the citizens. For the replies, we included data showing the deteriorat-ed state of the city’s public facilities and the financial difficulties, and requested that replies be made after reading it.Implementation period: August ~ September 2014Questionnaire recipients: 3000 people randomly drawn from those 18 years old or older liv-

ing in Kawagoe CityNumber returned: 1,542 people Reply rate: 51.4%

Table 6 shows agreement and disagreement for each public facility measure.From this, we can see that roughly 85% of the people agree with the methods of “reor-

ganize with similar facilities” and “multi-functionalize with schools, etc. and reorganize.” Additionally, expansion, PPP, extending lifespan, assistance to help citizens use private fa-cilities, utilizing the land all have more than a three-fourths approval rate. On the other hand, the majority of people are against increasing usage fees and incurring special taxes. Looking at these results, we can see that citizens express agreement for most of the meth-ods, including reorganization, but they disagree with methods that increase cost.

These results are nearly the same even when cross tabulated by gender, age, and area of residence (urban or suburban). Also, in addition to this city, we got nearly similar results in

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every other city in which we conducted the questionnaire (Musashino City, Matsue City, Narashino City, Fukaya City, Takahagi City, and Kamisato Town (Saitama Prefecture)).

Also, regarding the question about public facilities and public works infrastructure pri-ority, the idea that “public works infrastructure should take priority” received an over-whelming majority of support, with 66.7% (two-thirds) of the people supporting it, which is more than ten times greater than “public facilities should take priority” at 6.7%. Looking at the open-ended question answers, we could see many opinions like “I didn’t know that the infrastructure was dangerous,” “things that could be fatal to residents should take priority,” “government buildings are fine to have, but I don’t mind not having them,” and “average citizens will agree once they understand the situation.”

It can be said that these results show that, even if it is correct that citizens tend to oppose the reorganization of facilities, if the results are not limited to those led to by asking the ex-tremely limited question of “Should the applicable facilities be maintained or abolished?” their conclusion would likely completely change when asked to make a judgement after be-ing given the overall information that not all facilities can be maintained. In other words, this suggests that the understanding of most of the nation’s citizens that facilities are fine to have if someone else is bearing the financial burden, but they do not want to maintain them if they have to bear the burden themselves.

V. Conclusion

Lastly, we will summarize our conclusion.

Table 6Kawagoe City Citizen Questionnaire Results

(Approve/Disapprove of Public Facility Reorganization Methods)

Source: Created by the authors

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First, the awareness and specific policies of current national policymaking authorities re-garding the issues of infrastructure deterioration and replacement investment budget deficits are correct and proper. However, the point should be reflected plainly that policies should be changed toward increasing the quality of public services without increasing stock through maintaining and re-purposing the existing stock, instead of increasing stock using economic policies originally from the period of the collapse of the economic bubble. It goes without saying that measures aimed at increasing stock should not be taken at the present time.

Secondly, the Comprehensive Management Plan for public facilities, etc., which is a policy spearheaded by the nation, is beginning to take effect, and it is picking up more speed in the actual municipalities. This point, too, can be evaluated highly. However, there are many points that are insufficient in the Comprehensive Management Plan that has already been publically announced, and from the point of view of the guidelines taken up by this pa-per, it is predicted that it will not be implementable, or if it is implemented, it will likely not solve the problems. The Comprehensive Management Plan has been written, but in order to make it implementable, it is necessary to make specific examinations based on some sort of guidelines. On this point, we hope that the Standard Model and guidelines we have now de-veloped will be put to good use.

Thirdly, the nation should support municipalities concerning this issue by specifically and objectively formulating a Comprehensive Management Plan, and requiring that it be implemented (by fulfilling the guidelines touched upon in this paper, etc.). On this point, if other policy goals are set, a situation in which new public projects can receive national sup-port should be avoided.

Fourthly, the citizens also hold great responsibility, not just the administration. The citi-zens also hold responsibility for enlarging public facilities and infrastructure and delaying realization of the necessity of replacement investment due to taking too light a view of the financial situation and urging the expansion of public facilities and infrastructure. In the fu-ture, citizens themselves should be aware of optimal situations, taking into consideration the entire area and the next generation, even if they are not optimal for them personally. The random draw citizen questionnaire introduced in this paper would be a powerful opportunity for that.

Fifthly, private enterprise also plays a large role. Private enterprise is also responsible for the mistaken impression of citizens that the more public facilities and infrastructure there are, the more affluence there is because private enterprise has not offered a society that is af-fluent even in the absence of many public facilities and infrastructure. The Japanese econo-my at the time of the oil crisis did not make an effort to buy raw oil at inflated prices. It tried to make do without buying raw oil. That is energy efficiency. In the future, it will be neces-sary to consider methods of maintaining the quality of life even with small physical quanti-ties of public facilities and infrastructure by making full use of technologies such as con-struction, real estate, services, IT, robots, and sensing. This is infrastructure efficiency. Specific methodology is being developed such as 1) Softening (Examples: privatization, us-ing private facilities, and regional transfer of meeting halls), 2) Expansion (Examples: re-

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gional collaboration on culture halls, general athletic facilities, hospitals, and fire depart-ments), 3) Multi-functionalization (Examples: compounding and re-purposing existing facilities), 4) Reorganization (Examples: reorganizing schools, unifying elementary and ju-nior high schools, and consolidating schools and community centers, etc. with similar func-tions), 5) Decentralized processing (Examples: joint water waste treatment for sewage, wa-ter systems that use underground water for waterworks, and reusable energy), 6) Delivery and IT (Examples: water delivery trucks, traveling libraries, and remote medicine), and 7) Compacting (Examples: compact cities and transferring to higher ground). In order to pro-mote infrastructure efficiency from 2013, Toyo University formed the Infra-saving Technol-ogy Working Group10, made up of private enterprises, and performs cross-sectional studies across industries.

If we now simply tried to replace public facilities and infrastructure using conventional thinking, then financial resources would run out during the life of the infrastructure, and most public facilities and infrastructure would remain although they posed a physical dan-ger. Can we be full of pride when there are regions with worn-down city halls and collaps-ing bridges next to brand-new halls and gymnasiums?

The formulation and implementation of Comprehensive Management Plans for public facilities, etc. is the last chance for Japanese people to survive in a time of dwindling popu-lation.

References

Yuji Nemoto (2011) “Kuchiru Infura (Decaying Infrastructure)” Nikkei Publishing Inc.

10 Infra-saving Technology Working Group http://www.toyo.ac.jp/site/pppc/sho-infra.html

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