Development and ApplicationDevelopment and Application of Technology Foresight in

Shanghai

Shanghai Institute for Science of ScienceMar.2011

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Review: Technology Foresight Development in Shanghai

Part 1.in Shanghai

Ideas and Methods of Technology ForesightPart 2 Ideas and Methods of Technology Foresight in Shanghai

Part 2.

Results and Impacts of Shanghai Technology Foresight

Part 3.Foresight

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Historical background and the new starting pointstarting point

• 1980s: technology forecasting and the long‐term gy g gtechnology plan.

• Jan 6, 2001: a new starting point for regional technology foresight.

P j t f ‘T h l F i ht f i iti d f– Project of ‘Technology Foresight of prioritized areas for Shanghai Science and Technology Development’ were launched by science and technology committee of Shanghai.

– The first technology foresight was led by a regional t f i l d Chi

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government of mainland China.

Basic reason for the implementation of i l t h l f i htregional technology foresight

• Select the direction of government investment and optimize the main contents of government technology lplan

• Broadly gather strategic wisdom of experts, promote y g g p , poptimal allocation of R & D investment

• Promote the application of innovation tool for scientific• Promote the application of innovation tool for scientific and technological innovation to create good social and cultural atmosphere

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cultural atmosphere

Municipality's requirements and expectations of technology foresightexpectations of technology foresight

• Support the technology planning and the annual technology plan of the municipality

– Situation judgment: trend of domestic and foreign technology development and influence on Shanghai.

– Project proposal: priorities of Shanghai’s development.

• Provide a platform for the training of strategic specialists for technological innovation– Experts of natural science and engineering to become experts of 

technology development strategy.

– Administrators of technology innovation to become science policy

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Administrators of technology innovation to become science policy counseling experts.

• Support the technological innovation activities of enterprises– In‐depth discussions among industries, universities and research institutes 

on major issues of technological innovation that will affect regional development.

– Provide future development proposals and strategies of technology innovation activities for the enterprises, especially small and medium‐sized enterprises.p

– Provide innovative management application mode through the implementation of specific cases.

• Provide an effective channel for the perception of technology innovation, promote the popularization of science and extension of technologyextension of technology.– Public consultation for technological innovations– Enrich the science content and promote technology applications

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p gy pp

Organization and implementation of technology foresight in Shanghaitechnology foresight in Shanghai

• Municipality• Municipality– Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai

• Research Institute– Shanghai Institute for Science of Science

• ExpertsSpecialists from industries universities and research– Specialists from industries, universities,  and research institutes 

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History

• 2001‐‐2004  Introduction of foresight theory

• 2005‐‐2008  Exploration and support

• 2009‐‐ Integration with decision‐making

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Review: Technology Foresight Development in Shanghai

Part 1.in Shanghai

Ideas and Methods of Technology ForesightPart 2 Ideas and Methods of Technology Foresight in Shanghai

Part 2.

Results and Impacts of Shanghai Technology Foresight

Part 3.Foresight

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Principles

• Problem‐based• Problem‐based 

• Five years for a new roundFive years for a new round

• Government‐industry‐ university fully y y yintegrated

• Comprehensive application of various methods

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methods

Technology foresight implemented with diff t l l d l ifi tidifferent levels and classifications

• For overall regional development needs– Delphi integrated surveyDelphi integrated survey

• For regional industry developmentRegional industry technology roadmap or strategic product– Regional industry technology roadmap or strategic product technology roadmap

• Social issues oriented technology foresight• Social issues‐oriented technology foresight– Technology foresight of technological innovation which support the service economy

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support  the service economy

Technology foresight for overall regional development needs

• Large‐scale comprehensive surveys were taken every five years to support the next 5‐year planyears to support the next 5 year plan

– In 2004, comprehensive Delphi surveys of the first technology foresight were taken i i l di l i i f iin 4 areas, including electronic information and communication, agriculture and bio‐medicine, new materials, advanced man fact ringmanufacturing.

– In 2009, comprehensive Delphi surveys were undertaken in the development vision and demands in 8 areas, including electronic information and communication, bio‐medicine, new materials, advanced 

f t i d i lt12

manufacturing, modern agriculture, energy, marine and environment.

Organization structure 

Science and Technology Commission of ShanghaiSenior technology 

advisory group (well‐known scientists, leading

Socio‐economic needs advisory group (senior soft science expert)

business experts) Technology foresight project team

soft science expert)

Overall group (methodological guidance) + Integrated service group (coordination)O e a g oup ( et odo og ca gu da ce) teg ated se ce g oup (coo d at o )

Information Bio‐medicine

New materials, advanced

Social Basic Research

technologyBio‐medicine advanced 

manufacturing developmentBasic Research

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Platform for information exchange and expert forum

Expert Team

•• 20012001: : 53 53 expertsexperts

•• 20022002: : 80 80 expertsexperts

•• 20032003--20052005: : 101101 experts experts

20072007 2008: 99 experts2008: 99 experts•• 20072007--2008: 99 experts 2008: 99 experts

•• 2009: 115 experts 2009: 115 experts pp

•• 2010: 97 experts 2010: 97 experts

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Technology foresight or regional industry developmentdevelopment

F i ht h t k d th j t k• Foresight research were taken around the major tasks of Shanghai Science and Technology Plan

– ‘Shanghai Regional Industry Technology Roadmap’ completed under the guidance of National Ministry of Science and 

( )Technology (2009)

– ‘Strategic Product Technology Roadmap of PET in Shanghai’( )(2009)

– ‘Technology Foresight for Several Recently Emergent industries ’ (2010~2011)

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industries   (2010 2011)

Social issues‐oriented technology foresight

• Study the significant impact of social change on technology innovation from an advanced perspectivetechnology innovation from an advanced perspective.

i h d h h l i i ‘ i– Foresight around how technology innovation support ‘Service Shanghai’(2010~2011)

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Review: Technology Foresight Development in Shanghai

Part 1.in Shanghai

Ideas and Methods of Technology ForesightPart 2 Ideas and Methods of Technology Foresight in Shanghai

Part 2.

Results and Impacts of Shanghai Technology Foresight

Part 3.Foresight

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Achievements in the past 10 years 

• 1, Tracking domestic and international , gtrends of technological foresight, spreading its theory and methods.p g y

– ‘Global Trend of Technology Foresight’ (2002)

– ‘UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual’ (2009)– UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual  (2009)

– ‘Manual for Enterprise Technology Roadmap Preparation’ (2011, internal data) p ( )

– ‘UK Technology Foresight Using Scenario Planning Method’ (2011, internal data) 

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• 2, Research monographs based on the comprehensive application of different methods 

– Scenario depiction• ‘Science and Technology Shape the Future Cities’ (2002)

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– Comprehensive Survey of the Delphi Method• ‘2004 ~ 2005 Shanghai Technology Foresight Report’ (2006)

– Technology roadmap and patent map application in different fields• ‘2006 ~ 2008 Shanghai Technology Foresight Report’ (2008)g gy g p ( )

– Industry and product technology roadmap method• ‘Shanghai Regional Industry Technology’ (2009)

• ‘Strategic Product Technology Roadmap of PET in Shanghai’ (2009)

Patent map application in

biomaterials(2008)

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– Industry and product technology roadmap method• ‘Shanghai Regional Industry Technology Roadmap’ (2009)

• ‘Strategic Product Technology Roadmap of PET in Shanghai’ (2009)

i i i hPET: Positron Emission Tomography

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• 3, Participation in the technology foresight platform building, boosting appreciation and practice of regional technology foresight.

Co initiating professional committee with China Technology– Co‐initiating professional committee with China Technology Development Strategy Institute and Technology policy and Management Institute of China Academy of Sciences.

– Methods of technology foresight were employed in the ‘12th Five‐Year’ technology PlanFive Year  technology Plan.

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Influence & Social Impact

• Support the planning and management of S&T for the municipalitymunicipality– Influences of technology foresight have been reflected by

the continuous funding from the government.P idi b i f th l t t h l l i d ‘12th Fi• Providing basis for the long‐term technology planning and ‘12th Five‐

Year’ technology Plan.

• Providing lists of project proposals for the long‐term and annual technology plan.

• Provoking the strategic thinking in companies, universities and research institutes and increasing the effectiveness of technology projectinstitutes, and increasing the effectiveness of technology project implementation.

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• Promote the study of technology foresight• Promote the study of technology foresight

– <A Brief Introduction of Technology Foresight>

Technology foresight– Technology foresight lectures available to graduate students in Donghua University.

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• Bring the process effects into light

– Surveys for vision and needs ;

the awareness of S&T innovation

– Communication and corporation among industries, universities and research institutes

Families partook in the survey‘Our city our future’ the theme of technology foresight‘Our city, our future’, the theme of technology foresight in 2009, focusing on vision of future and needs of economy and society, received great attention.

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• Li-Wan– Shanghai Institute for Science of Science– www.siss.sh.cn– E-mail: liwan@siss.sh.cn

Tel: 0086 21 24197625– Tel: 0086-21-24197625– MP: +86-137 6186 5981

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• Li Wan• Li-Wan– Shanghai Institute for Science of Science– www.siss.sh.cn– E-mail: liwan@siss.sh.cn@– Tel: 0086-21-24197625– MP: +86-137 6186 5981

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– MP: +86-137 6186 5981