Developing Your Science Story

Developing Your Science StoryCL#21-2323

Randii R. Wessen (JPL)Advanced Design Engineering Group

Project Systems Engineering & Formulation Section

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9/13/21 2

• NASA is Looking for Compelling Science

• Concept Maturity Levels

• Baseline and Threshold Science Missions

• Science Return Diagram

• Final Thoughts

Agenda

Developing Your Science Story© 2021 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology. US Government sponsorship acknowledged.

This document has been reviewed and determined not to contain export controlled technical data.

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NASA is Looking for Compelling Science



Science Must be Compelling

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• Science Story

T. Zurbuchen’s “Writing Successful Proposals: Observations from NASA”



• Science Story- “Make science beautiful – want to tell a compelling story about discovery

and exploration”


and exploration”- “Make all decisions flow from overarching science questions to ensure no

decisions prevent answering those questions (start with that, then modify)”




- “If the importance of science is not clear or not communicated sufficiently, it can derail your success!”





• How much science is enough?





• How much science is enough?- “Incremental science is not enough”






• How much risk is too much?






• How much risk is too much?- NASA …”is comfortable with taking technical risks if necessary to achieve

great science, but are willing to cancel missions and payloads to manage risk”

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Concept Maturity Levels



Absent: A Common Language for Concepts

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How mature is your concept?

This Titan

OrbitTrades CommentsLaunch vehicle Atlas V Delta IV-Heavy Ares V Ares V considered acceptable only for sample

return concepts launched post 2020.

Cruise propulsion SEP + GAs Chemical + GAs Propulsive only Good performance from Chemical+Gravity Assists (GAs). SEP+GAs warrants further consideration, but new optimized trajectory search is needed.

Capture into Saturn system Titan aerocapture (aerogravity assist)

Propulsive capture Aerogravity assist saves mass and also saves at least several months in pumpdown .

Pump-down mission design Enceladus/Titan GAs only

Multiple moon GAs only

Multiple moon propulsively-leveraged GAs

REP+GAs Other options found to be too high delta-V or flight time.

RPS type MMRTG ARPS (advanced Stirling)

ARPS specific power higher, efficiency much higher (less Pu needed). Guidelines allowed ARPS as acceptable and available option for flagship studies.

Orbiter implementation Enceladus Orbiter Low-Energy Enceladus Multiple-Flyby (Saturn Orbiter)

High-Energy Enceladus Multiple-Flyby (Saturn Orbiter)

Lander/Probe implementation Fly-Through Probes and Impactors

Rough Landers Soft Landers Orbi-Landers Priority placed on having in-situ measurements from surface.

Number of landers None One Three (regional distribution)

Five (larger-scale distribution and/or redundancy)

Lander lifetime/duration Short-lived (~2 weeks on primary battery or fuel cell)

Long-lived (~1 year on RPS)

Lander mobility type Stationary Locally mobile (~10 km)

Regionally mobile (~100 km)

Globally mobile Considered propulsive "hopper" type concepts for soft landers.

Legend:

Acceptable and evaluated in this studyAcceptable but not evaluated in this studyUnacceptable

Alternatives and Selections

Interior Structure

(Gravity Field)

Magnetic Field

Energetic Particles

Lg. Circ.Sm. Conv.

Vertical Structure

Surface Structure

Surface Composition

Interior Structure

(Gravity Field)

Uranus Satellites

Atmosphere

Polar Orbiter

Fly-By

Atm. Probe

Free-Flying Instruments

Lander

Equatorial Orbiter

Release of Internal Heat

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Option A Option B Option C Option D Option E Option F Option G Option H Option I

$FY0

6M

TMC

Mass Comparison Summary - Launch Mass and Sub-Elements

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

A B C D E F G H I

Mas

s (k

g)

Lander(s)

Orbiter

Aerocapture System

Cruise/Prop Stage

Delta IV-Heavy C3=16 km^2/s^2

Atlas 551 C3=16 km^2/s^2

Rela

tive

Goal

Sci

ence

Val

ue

A En

cela

dus

orbi

ter w

ith m

ultip

le

shor

t liv

ed la

nder

s

B En

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ter w

ith m

ultip

le

long

-live

d la

nder

s

C En

cela

dus

orbi

ter a

lone

D En

cela

dus

orbi

ter b

ecom

ing

a lo

ng-li

ved

land

er

E En

cela

dus

orbi

ter w

ith s

ingl

e lo

ng-li

ved

land

er

F Lo

w en

ergy

Sat

urn

orbi

ter

(flyb

ys) a

lone

G Hi

gh e

nerg

y Sa

turn

orb

iter

(flyb

ys) a

lone

H Lo

w en

ergy

Sat

urn

orbi

ter

(flyb

ys) w

ith a

sin

gle

long

-live

d la

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I Low

ene

rgy

Satu

rn o

rbite

r (fl

ybys

) with

mul

tiple

sho

rt-liv

ed

land

ers

Cass

ini

Science Goals, Enceladus Mission Science Assessment - 0-10, 10 best

1. What is the heat source, what drives the plume 10 6 7 4 5 5 2 1 3 6 1

2. What is the plume production rate, and does it vary 8 8 9 8 9 9 7 3 8 7 33. What are the effects of the plume on the structure and composition of Enceladus? 5 8 9 6 7 7 4 3 5 8 24. What are the interaction effects of the plume on the Saturnian system 3 7 7 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 7

5. Does the composition and/or existence of the plume give us clues to the origin and evolution of the solar system 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 7 7 3

6. Does the plume source environment provide the conditions necessary (or sufficient) to sustain biotic or pre-biotic chemistry 5 8 8 6 7 8 6 5 7 8 37. Are other similar bodies (Dione, Tethys, Rhea) also active, and if not, why not? 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 5

Value by Architecture, summed 52 55 45 49 50 42 31 46 51 24

Value by Architecture, weighted, summed, normalized 0.46 0.493 0.393 0.439 0.446 0.353 0.246 0.393 0.449 0.187

or that?



Concept Maturity Levels (CMLs)

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A Vocabulary Based on TRLs

PreliminaryDesignReview(PDR)

TRL = Technology Readiness Levels

CML 1

CML 2

CML 3

CML 4

CML 5

CML 6

Cocktail Napkin

Initial Feasibility

Trade Space

Preferred DesignPoint withinTrade Space

Concept Baseline

Initial Design

F=ma

CML 7PrelimIntegrated B/L

Mission Definition Review

Step 1 Proposal

CML = Concept Maturity Levels



CMLs: A Powerful Communication Tool

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CML 7CML 6CML 5CML 4 CML 3 CML 2 CML 1 CML 8

Cocktail Napkin

Initial Feasibility

Trade Space

Point Design

Baseline Concept

Integrated Concept

Preliminary Implementation

Baseline

Integrated Baseline



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Baseline and Threshold Science Missions



NASA’s Definition of Baseline and Threshold Science Missions

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• Baseline Science Mission *- “The “Baseline Science Mission” is the mission that, if fully

implemented, would fulfill the Baseline Science Requirements, which are the performance requirements necessary to achieve the full science objectives of the mission.”

* Text taken from the Draft Discovery 2019 Announcement of Opportunity



• Baseline Science Mission *- “The “Baseline Science Mission” is the mission that, if fully

implemented, would fulfill the Baseline Science Requirements, which are the performance requirements necessary to achieve the full science objectives of the mission.”

• Threshold Science Mission *- “The “Threshold Science Mission” is a descoped Baseline Science

Mission that would fulfill the Threshold Science Requirements, which are the performance requirements necessary to achieve the minimum science acceptable for the investment.”

Implications of a Baseline and Threshold Science Missions

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• Baseline Science Mission *- Science obtained must be ”more” than the state-of-the-art



• Baseline Science Mission *- Science obtained must be ”more” than the state-of-the-art- Must achieve compelling science with minimal cost & technical risk


• Threshold Science Mission *- Evaluators will assume that the science mission will achieve the threshold

science for the baseline cost



science for the baseline cost- Cannot use descopes in operations (Phase E) as a basis for the threshold

science mission- Example: Reducing operations from 4 to 3 years does very little to

reduce development costs and risks



science for the baseline cost- Cannot use descopes in operations (Phase E) as a basis for the threshold

science mission- Example: Reducing operations from 4 to 3 years does very little to

reduce development costs and risks- Baseline and Threshold Science Mission can be the same IF and ONLY IF:

- There is excess amounts of margin in most of the spacecraft resources (i.e., dollars, mass, power, s/c memory, etc.)* Text taken from the Draft Discovery 2019 Announcement of Opportunity

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Science Return Diagram (SRD)



Science Objectives Drive the Science Return Diagramming Process

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• Generate an SRD for each science objective- Explicitly state the science mission concept for:- State of the art (basis for comparison)- Enhancement- Enabling - Breakthrough science

• Define:- Spatial requirements- Temporal requirement- Spectral range- Mission requirements (e.g., altitude, inclination, number of spacecraft)- etc.



Science Return Diagraming

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Small Body Example: Asteroid Structure

Science Return Level Mission Spatial Scale Temporal Scale

State of the Art

Enhancing

Enabling

Breakthrough




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State of the Art Dawn 35 m/pixel 5.5 hours (LAMO)

Enhancing

Enabling

Breakthrough




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Enhancing Dawn s/c at new class of asteroid

35 m/pixel 5.5 hours (LAMO)

Enabling

Breakthrough




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Enabling

Breakthrough Land on surface and return a sample

450 microns/pixel Continuous




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Enabling Add a magnetometer & laser altimeter







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Baseline Science




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Baseline ScienceThreshold Science




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Baseline ScienceThreshold ScienceCost Cap



The Bridge Between the Science Story and the STM

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• The Science Return Diagram (SRD) is the connection between the science story and the STM




• The SRD is used to:- Identify technical values for the Science Traceability Matrix (STM) that

are based on enabling science



are based on enabling science- Keeps the STM focused on compelling science rather than a “catch-all”

for all science that could be performed



are based on enabling science- Keeps the STM focused on compelling science rather than a “catch-all”

for all science that could be performed- Provide a logical and consistent flow between the science story and

the STM

SRD Benefits and Liabilities

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• Benefits of doing an SRD



• Benefits of doing an SRD• Provides:

- An approach for identifying a compelling science mission

• Benefits of doing an SRD• Benefits of doing an SRD• Provides:

- An approach for identifying a compelling science mission- An understanding of what instruments should be included in the science

payload



payload- Insight into the Co-I(s) that should be considered for your Science

Investigation Team




Investigation Team

• Liabilities of doing an SRD- Must do an SRD for each science objective




Investigation Team

• Liabilities of doing an SRD- Must do an SRD for each science objective- May be a challenge to reconcile conflicting requirements between

different science objectives




Investigation Team

• Liabilities of doing an SRD- Must do an SRD for each science objective- May be a challenge to reconcile conflicting requirements between

different science objectives- May not give you the answer you want

Final Thoughts

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• NASA is looking for compelling science mission concepts




• Compelling science is based on having:- Hypothesis/prediction pairs that can be traced to NASA’s Strategic

Objectives (e.g., the Decadal Surveys)



Objectives (e.g., the Decadal Surveys)- A mission concept that produces enabling science




• Proposals for NASA’s competed missions must have a baseline and threshold science mission concept





- Be careful not to over commit





- Be careful not to over commit

• SRD identifies the enabling and breakthrough science- Includes temporal and spatial measurement requirements (at the least)

Documents

Developing Your Science Story