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DEVELOPING HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE WATER
RESOURCES OF ANDEAN CATCHMENTS (ECUADOR)
Raúl F. Vázquez Z. & Henrietta HampelUniversity of Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril S/N, Cuenca, Ecuador.
R. Lelieveld, B. Fischer, N. Lam, S. LyonUniversity of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
LIST OF CONTENTS
1.- INTRODUCTION
2.- HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OFANDEAN SYSTEMS: AN EXAMPLE
3.- QUESTIONS?
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
WHY STUDYING WAT. RES.?
¿Water a granted good/service?
¿Is it in the right place and time ?
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
WATER IN ECUADOR
Obvious increment of physical and human damages owing toextreme draughts and rain
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
84
92
100
108
116
124
132
140
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Ener
gy c
onsu
mpt
ion
[TW
h]
GD
P pe
r cap
ita [U
S$ in
hab.
-1]
Year
GDP (OER)
Energy consumption
WATER IN ECUADOR
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
SOCIETY AWARENESS& REQUEST
WATER IN ECUADOR
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
LAB. ECOLOGÍA ACUÁTICA
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300Número de pasos de tiempo
Cau
dal [
m3 s
-1]
Caudal (Zhurucay alto)Escorrentía (flujo rápido)Flujo subsuperficialFlujo lento
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
LIST OF CONTENTS
1.- INTRODUCTION
2.- HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OFANDEAN SYSTEMS: AN EXAMPLE
3.- QUESTIONS?
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
MODELLING PROTOCOL
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
• Is finding a (best fit) "only optimal parameter set"really valid in practice?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-121-97/
?MODEL CALIBRATION
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
•DATA
•STRUCTURE•PARAMETER
uncertainty
uncertainty
•DATAuncertainty
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
ST. CASE 2: RESULTS
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
• Upgrading distribution function
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
ST. CASE 2: RESULTS
IAG004 - distribución posterior (EF2>0.50)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Jul-08 Ago-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08
Fecha
Lluv
ia [m
m]
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Cau
dal [
m3 s
-1]
Banda predicción (90%) Lluvia Observaciones
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
“MODELLING THE HYDROLOGY OF THE YANUNCAY SUBCATCHMENT, SOUTHERN
ECUADOR”
STUDY CASE
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YANUNCAY SUBCATCHMENT
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YAN: MAIN CARACTERISTICS
Average monthly precipitation over 21 years(1997-2018) and average monthlytemperature over 4 years (2014-2018).
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YAN: CLIMATE
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YAN: HBV - MODELLING
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YAN: HBV - MODELLING
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YAN: HBV CALIBRATION
Automatic calibration (single optimal model)
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
YAN: HBV – PREDICTIONS
0.69 0.66
0.86
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Yanuncay Pucán Soldados
EF2
[--]
Subsystem
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percentage of time that the discharge was equalled or exceed
10.0
1.0
0.1
Dis
char
ge [m
m d
-1]
YanuncaySoldadosPucán
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
NAM CONCEPTUAL CODE
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
CALIBRATION RESULTS
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
CALIBRATION RESULTS
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
CONCLUSSIONS
(i) Both conceptual structures seem to producesimilar predictions.
(ii) The scarcity of continuous information seems toplay the key role on the quality of the predictions.
(iii) Apparently, the model structures have moretrouble simulating the main reach than modellingthe tributaries (lower data uncertainty?).
(iv) There is a significant number of ongoing researchactivities that are aiming at better characterisingthese very important and sensible Andeansystems by using models. We hope to set upsome model tools that could be more or lessoperational in the future.
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
LIST OF CONTENTS
1.- INTRODUCTION
2.- HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OFANDEAN SYSTEMS: AN EXAMPLE
3.- QUESTIONS?
IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019
QUESTIONS?
THANKS very much !!
DEVELOPING HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE WATER
RESOURCES OF ANDEAN CATCHMENTS (ECUADOR)
Raúl F. Vázquez Z. & Henrietta HampelUniversity of Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril S/N, Cuenca, Ecuador.
R. Lelieveld, B. Fischer, N. Lam, S. LyonUniversity of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.