DEVELOPING A PROJECT ROADMAP

D ANIEL A . W ORDSON

T ECHNICAL MEET ING ON TOPICAL ISSUES IN T HE DEVELOPMENT OF N UCLEAR P OWER I NFRASTRUCTURE

FEBRUARY 2 – 5, 2016; IAEA, V IENNA, AUSTRIA.

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Roadmap: Introduction, Objective & Features

Considerations in Defining the Breakdown Structure

Considerations in Setting Milestones

Tools for Roadmap Development

Official Plans Vs. Expert Opinion; Ghana’s Experience

Ghana’s Case in Developing Roadmap

Concluding Remarks & References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps

Outline

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‘Roadmap’ is a generic term meaning a detailed plan for achieving some goal

and to guide progress toward this goal. It is a synonym for ‘guide to future goals’,

‘guideline’, ‘plan’, ‘direction’, ‘instruction’, ‘map’, ‘protocol’, ‘standard’,

‘procedure’.

Several analytical tools (methods, software, etc) are available to support

technology or non-technology (policy-oriented) roadmapping providing means to

gather, explore, organize, analyze and communicate the information necessary for

decision-making process related to roadmap construction.

Roadmap:

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Planning process that is both target and policy oriented.

Target orientation to deal with:

National preference(s) for evolutionary and/or innovative power plants

Expected output and benefit of the project

Project sustainability

Policy orientation to address:

National prospects for energy mix

Existing national and international instruments and legal responsibilities

Provisions for successful project implementation (that is both nationally and internationally acceptable)

Roadmap – In Brief

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Overall objective is to develop a structured approach for making transition

from current status to satisfying a projected foreseeable need.

Features:

Structured approach

Milestones

Dynamism and Long-term perspective (that also considers evolutionary

trends of development)

Objective of Project Roadmap

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Key Considerations:

Overview of the generic approach of developing nuclear power (Clear understanding of IAEA’s Milestones Approach)

Overview of national institutions that qualify as key stakeholders who can collaborate to meet the requirements

Relevant national and international consultancies (e.g., conduction of public opinion poll after certain level of awareness/engagement; aspects of site survey; etc.)

Realistic outlining of tasks – Redesign the scope of work

document actions (e.g., National Position: Technical evaluations, stakeholder involvement and public awareness; to what extent they are to be addressed in each phase)

Defining the Breakdown Structure

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Budget

Timeframe (for specific collaborative efforts by particular

stakeholders)

Available tools (manpower, logistics, etc)

Considerations in Setting Milestones

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Visualization tools:

Trees, taxonomy, Gantt chart, mind map, concept map, etc

Analytical tools:

Decision tree, MCDA, cost-benefit analysis, portfolio optimization, etc.

Software for roadmapping (data input, analysis, reporting):

MS Project or other Gantt software (Aha!, ProductPlan, etc)

Integrated tools (Vision Strategist, VersionOne, etc)

Tools for Roadmap Development

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Official Plans Study/Expert Opinion

Credible Your desk study; no matter how

brilliant

Acknowledged by all developmental

facets (national and international)

Your opinion

Compel stakeholders commitment and

active participation

No one really cares

Appreciable confidence for investment Unlikely investment

High probability of achieving goal

even if it delays

It is your dream

Official Plans vs Study/Expert Opinion

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IMPORTANCE OF CLEAR & OFFICIAL ROADMAP – Ghana’s Experience

Ghana’s Story 1963: Establishment of Ghana Atomic Energy Commission

1964: Energy for accelerated national development plan-Dr Kwame Nkrumah

“We have been compelled to enter the field of Atomic energy, because this already promises to yield the economical source of power since the beginning of man.

Our success in this field would enable us to solve the many sided problems which face us in all the spheres of our development in Ghana and in Africa”. – Dr Nkrumah

Feb. 1966: Revolution (Gov. invitation to Sir Cockcroft and IAEA on the Reactor Project) “the view of the IAEA was that … the advice sought was political in nature, and it must therefore remain the prerogative of the Government to take a decision.”

Nov. 1966: Cockcroft Report (to NLC); “In view of the capacity of the Volta hydroelectric project, for some twenty years to come, a Reactor is unlikely to be necessary for the purpose of producing power.”

1998, 2007: Acute national energy crisis that shut down some turbines of the Akosombo hydro-electric plant (main electricity producing plant of Ghana; roundly 1000 MW plant)

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2007: Presidential Committee to report on a feasibility study of introducing Nuclear into Country’s Energy Mix

2008: Cabinet decision to include nuclear into energy mix based on the Committee’s Report (Adjei-Bekoe’s Report 2007)

2010: Nuclear Energy included in National Energy Policy and Strategy

2012: Ghana Nuclear Power Program Organization (Ghana’s NEPIO)

2014: Establishment of Nuclear Power Centre (as Technical drive force for GNPPO)

2015 (January): IAEA Expert visit to develop a better understanding of the planning by Ghana for nuclear power infrastructure development

Key Issues of the IAEA Visit (among others included):

o Development of clear roadmap or national action plan with timelines and key deliverables

Ghana’s Story Continued

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o Ghana to focus on near-term goals of NPID o Strengthening coordination mechanisms with clear roles &

responsibilities for participating organizations /institutions

2015(March): NPC Draft of Roadmap for NPP development in Ghana. Document reviewed by IAEA in Nov 2015

2015: Nuclear Regulatory Authority Act 2015 for the establishment of an effectively independent Nuclear Regulatory Body signed

2015: Nearly all relevant International Conventions have been signed

2015(December): Restructured GNPPO

2016: Establishment of Ghana Nuclear Regulatory Authority

Ghana’s Story Continued

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Ghana’s Case: Developing Roadmap for Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development

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Discussion among key stakeholders of the program

Assigned responsibility and time

Review of: IAEA Milestone, Self Evaluation, NTDRoadmap(US DoE) documents

Brainstorming sessions - Draft roadmap with Conditions for successful development

First run cost estimate for infrastructure development

Meeting with stakeholders to discuss draft

Meeting with IAEA (Roadmap and Self evaluation guidance)

Readjustments and restructuring (where necessary)

GNPPO discussion on reviewed roadmap, near-term goals and strategy

Conclusion and Official adoption

How Ghana Developed its Roadmap (Feb – Dec., 2015)

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2015 2018 2023 2029 2045? ???

Construction of 1st NPP

Strongly, Well Motivated GNPPO (Planning, Coordination & Oversight Responsibility)

Preparation of Program

Comprehensive Studies & Report

Commissioning & Operation of 1st NPP

Project Feasibility & Development Phase N

ation

al Decisio

n

• Nuclear Power Plant mix

• Pressurised Water Reactors• Including VVERs, ALWRs, RMWRs, SCLWRs, …

• Boiling Water Reactors• Including ESBWRs, RMBWRs, ...

• Pressurised Heawy Water Reactors• CANDU6, AHWR, ...

• Fast (Breeding) Reactors

• Small Modular Reactors

• Used Fuel (interim storage) ponds

• Used Fuel Dry interim storage

• Reprocessing and refabrication/recycling plants• Size indicates anuual throughput

• Geological disposal

• Committed mass-flow

• Fractional mass-flow, i.e. Only a fraction of fuel/material type follows this path

• Optional mass-flow, i.e. Depending on technical-economic conditions

FBR

BWR

PWR

PHWRGhana’s Overall Draft Roadmap for NPP

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2015 2018 2023 2029 2045? ???

Strongly, Well Motivated GNPPO (Planning, Coordination & Oversight Responsibility)

Commissioning & Operation of 1st NPP

Natio

nal D

ecision

• Nuclear Power Plant mix

• Pressurised Water Reactors• Including VVERs, ALWRs, RMWRs, SCLWRs, …

• Boiling Water Reactors• Including ESBWRs, RMBWRs, ...

• Pressurised Heawy Water Reactors• CANDU6, AHWR, ...

• Fast (Breeding) Reactors

• Small Modular Reactors

• Used Fuel (interim storage) ponds

• Used Fuel Dry interim storage

• Reprocessing and refabrication/recycling plants• Size indicates anuual throughput

• Geological disposal

• Committed mass-flow

• Fractional mass-flow, i.e. Only a fraction of fuel/material type follows this path

• Optional mass-flow, i.e. Depending on technical-economic conditions

FBR

BWR

PWR

PHWRGhana’s Roadmap – Some Major Issues

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• Legal gap analysis • HR Gap Analysis

& Strategy • Public Awareness • RB Startup;

Competence development program

• Site Survey (Candidate Sites)

• INIR 1 • PCR

• Site Selection • EIA • Grid Enhancements • Establishment of Licensing

Procedures • Regulatory processes for

Authorizations, Inspections and Enforcements

• Designation of OO • Technology Selection &

requirements • Contract • INIR 2 etc.

Implementations

• CRR Mission

• Agreement with Vendor Program & Construction Phase

Strongly, Well Motivated GNPPO (Planning, Coordination & Oversight Responsibility)

Milestones of Ghana’s Roadmap

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Nuclear Law

Com. Operation

PCR & Nat. Decision

GNPPO Technical

Bids National EPR

Implementation Grid

Connection

Technology/ Financial

Evaluations

Construction Start

Equipment Installation

Site Preparation

Contract Neg&Sign

Operator Staff Ready

2015 2029

Regardless of the urgency of need, Roadmap should:

Be Realistic (in time, money and commitment).No ‘short-cuts’ in NPID

Have tangible goal/end

Have clear milestones

Be well communicated and understood by all stakeholders

Assign specific responsibilities to stakeholders

Be official

Newcomer Country is likely to first develop a Master Roadmap to allow specific areas to develop the details. Due diligence is key and expert review is highly recommended.

Concluding Remarks

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General

IEA Technology roadmaps , https://www.iea.org/roadmaps/

UNIDO technology foresight, http://www.unido.org/foresight.html

Institute for Manufacturing, Department of Engineering Cambridge, UK, http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping/research/

Nuclear related roadmapping

Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2010 edition, NEA /IEA, https://www.iea.org/media/freepublications/technologyroadmaps/nuclear_roadmap2010.pdf

Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2015 edition, NEA /IEA, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapNuclearEnergy.pdf

References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps

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Nuclear energy research and development roadmap, 2010, DOE , http://energy.gov/ne/downloads/nuclear-energy-research-and-development-roadmap

A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/gif-tru2014.pdf

Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap: Future Pathways, 2013, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/168043/bis-13-632-nuclear-energy-research-and-development-roadmap-future-pathway.pdf

The path to sustainable nuclear energy – basic and applied research opportunities for advanced fuel cycles, DOE, 2005, http://science.energy.gov/~/media/bes/pdf/reports/files/psne_rpt.pdf

References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps

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Others

A roadmap to deploy new nuclear power plants in the United States by 2010, Volume 1 – Summary Report; Volume II – Main Report , 2001.

The nuclear roadmap portal – a service to the nuclear energy community.

Strategic plan for light water reactor research and development, US DoE / Nuclear Power Industry, 2004.

Indian programme related to innovative nuclear reactor technology, Sinha & Kakodkar, 2002.

Nuclear fission energy roadmap, UK Energy Research Centre, 2008.

Nuclear fission energy roadmap, Howarth, Dalton Nuclear Institute, 2008.

etc

References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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