Developer Economics 2010

Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10Page 1

VisionMobile research

Mobile Developer Economics 2010July 2010

knowledge. passion. innovation


ContentsMobile Developer Economics 2010 and Beyond

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Part 1: The Migration of Developer Mindshare

Part 2: Taking AppsTo the Market

Part 3: The BuildingBlocks of MobileApplications


- An analysis of the developer experience from design to

monetisationacross planning, testing, certification, submission to market channel (e.g. App Store),

shelf placement, promotion, payment and revenue generation, learning the platform,

coding and debugging the application, building the UI and getting support, adoption of

open source

- Conducted during Q1/Q2 2010 through a combination of telephone interviews and online survey

- Across all 8 major platforms iPhone (iOS), Android, BlackBerry, Symbian, Java ME, Windows Phone, Flash Lite,

mobile web

- Based on a sample of 401 mobile app developers401 respondents, from 53 countries, working in 291 companies (Nokia, Samsung, Sun,

Microsoft, …)

- With significant experience in mobile developmentMore than 60% of respondents have 3+ years of experience in app development

Nearly 30% have won one or more developer awards (Nokia Forum and Handango

Champions, Android Developer Challenge Winners & more)

About Developer Economics 2010


VisionMobile: Distiling market noise into market sense

Analysis + Mapping + Strategy

Market mapsCompetitive landscape maps of the mobile industry

Active Idle ScreenWho will own the screen?

Mobile Operating Systems: The New Generation

GPLv2 vs GPLv3White Paper Mobile Megatrends

Business Intelligencecompetitive analysis, commissioned research, company due diligence

Strategy definitionstrategy design, ecosystem positioning, product definition

Mobile Industry Atlas1,100+ companies, 70 sectors (Jan 2010 update)

100 million clubtracking successful businesses in mobile

Top-100 analyst blogwww.visionmobile.com/blog3,500+ subscribers90% mobile industry insiders

Thought leadershipwe coined industry terms like on-device portals, active idle screens, customised design manufacturers and introduced new strategy tools:

mobile industry evolution centres of

gravity

Copyright VisionMobile 2007-10Page 5 Copyright VisionMobile 2007-2010

Trusted by industry brands

Clients

selected VisionMobile clients

2008-2010


Part One

The Migration of Developer Mindshare


Developer mindshare vs devicesThe disconnect between the number of apps and the number of devices


The installed base for each platform is disproportional to the # of available apps

Developer mindshare vs devicesThe disconnect between the number of apps and the number of devices


Platform concurrency


Platform concurrency

Most developers work on multiple platformsThe average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers

Android is better than other platforms in terms of tools, platform features, and it’s easier to stand out as developer.”

Android developer

“


Android emerges as mindshare

leader- Android attracts developers from all other platformsmore than 60% of developers have worked on Android, assuming equal number of

developers across all 8 major platforms.

- iPhone (iOS) second most popular

- both platforms outrank Symbian & Java ME

that held pole positions in 2008

Developer Mindshare


Android – iPhone crosspollinationTop-3 app stores for iPhone and Android developers

Around 20% of Android developers sell apps in Apple’s app store and

vice-versa


- 20% of Android have also worked on iPhone

- 40% of iPhone have also worked on Android

Android – iPhone crosspollinationPercentage of developers working on rival platform


Selecting a platform – marketing reasons


Selecting a platform – marketing reasons

Monetisation becoming more important than everdevelopers have adopted a more realistic approach towards monetisation


Selecting a platform – technical reasons


Selecting a platform – technical reasons

Emphasis is on the fun and ‘getting things done’ side of developmentDocumentation and emulator/debugger also important


- Addressable market and monetisation more important than any

tech reasons

- Large market penetration (70% of respondents) is much more

important than ability to code & prototype quickly (45%)

- Revenue potential (55%) is more relevant than good

documentation (35%)

Commercial pragmatism

technical considerations are irrelevant, the choice of platform is ALWAYS marketing-driven.”

Mobile web developer

“


Developer bias


Developer bias

Market penetration is considered the ‘best aspect’ of each platformacross all platforms, even for platforms with low market penetration


Taking apps to marketPart Two


Main channels to the market


Main channels to the market

Top-3 channels to market:

1. App store used by most iPhone and more than 50% of Android & Flash developers

2. Direct via own website

3. Customer via the customer who commissioned it


Application planning


Application planning

- Nearly 90% of respondents used some kind of app planning

- Crowd-sourced testing by real end users is still under-served


Time-to-market across all channels


Time-to-market across all channels

App stores minimise time-to-market-They have reduced time-to-shelf by 3 times (from 68 days across traditional channels to 22

days)

-They have reduced time-to-payment by more than 2 times (82 days on average to 36 days)


App store use varies by platform


App store use varies by platform

Despite hype, use of app stores is limited for many developersand especially Java ME, mobile web and Windows Phone (pre WP-7) developers

BUT, almost 80% of iPhone developers use an app store as the primary route to the market


Discovery Bottleneck


Discovery Bottleneck

Key developer challenge is app discovery

and market exposuremore than 50% of developers willing to pay

for premium app store placement

It's like going to a record store with

200,000 CDs. You 'll only look at the top-

10.”

iPhone developer

”


App certification challenges


Main challenge in app certification is

cost- More than 30% of developers who certify believe it is costly

- Time-consuming approval process is also a problem

App certification challenges

Cost is a few hundred dollars per app certification (not per app). The cost maths dont work out for cheap apps..”Windows Phone developer

“


Long-tail economics

Monetisation potential in app stores is distorted by large number of

free apps60% of iPhone respondents not reaching expected revenue targets


Popular revenue models


Popular revenue models

Pay-per-download still most popular revenue modelAd-funded is just a secondary revenue source used by app store & portal-based channels


Operators are seen as bit-pipes

- more than 80% of respondents think operators should deliver

data anywhere/anytime

- around 50% consider the role of operators is to deliver more

than just voice calls

Network operators: their role

[there is a] big gap between intention and outcome. All [operators] talk about supporting developers. But in practice actual support (usable SDKs, decent documentation, support, person to talk to) is lacking”


“


Operators: support towards developers

Almost 70% of developers report little or

no support from operators

If Google became an

operator our problems would

be solved”


”


Part Three

The building blocks of mobile apps


Platform learning curve


Platform coding


Platform coding

Most lines of code: SymbianSymbian needs almost three thousand lines of code for developing 9 simple apps

Least lines of code: AndroidAndroid averages a little over 1,000 lines for same apps (i.e almost a third of the coding effort

spent on Symbian)


- On average Symbian takes 15+ months to learn, while Android

requires 6

- Programming in Symbian is much more time consuming - a Symbian developer needs to write 2 times more code than an iPhone

and 3 times more than an Android developer

- Symbian developers report quirky development & slow

emulator- development is quirky or time-consuming (reported by 50+% of platform

respondents)

- emulator is slow (75% of respondents)

Learning curve & efficiency

[the platform has a] steep learning curve”

Symbian developer“


Platform Challenges – IDE & emulator


-Emulator/debugger: slow speed and poor target device

mirroring

-IDE: absence of app porting framework and poor emulator

integration

Top pain points for emulator and IDE

there's no standard emulator or debugger for [mobile web]... and error messages are hard to figure out”Mobile web developer

“


UI tools are missing


UI tools are missing

Ability to create great UIs is far from the reach of most mobile

developers50 % Windows Phone, BlackBerry and Symbian developers face this issue,

while iPhone developers report no problems with creating UIs


Developer support


Developer support

Developers mostly rely on community/unofficial forums for supportalmost 80% use unofficial forums vendor websites are used by even less than 50%


Hidden device APIs


Hidden device APIs

Hidden API access is a control point for platform vendors,

but it’s also what developers would most likely pay forVendors could monetise from tiered SDK programmes


Network APIs


Network APIs

Operator network APIs are not appealing to developersOnly 5% of respondents thought operators should expose network APIs,

but more than 50% would be willing to pay for Billing APIs


Use of open source

Majority of developers who use open source, do so within

development toolsAndroid and iPhone developers 3x more likely

to lead open source communities

compared to Symbian developers

Corporations are wary of the licensing terms and err on the side of caution - by avoiding open source altogether.”

Android developer

“


The single key drawback to the use of open source is confusing

licences- 60% of respondents who use open source report being confused by open source

licences

- A small percentage (6%) report no drawbacks in the use of open source

Open source drawbacks

be careful about licensing. be aware of licensing drawbacks”

iPhone developer“


Thanks for listening!

Follow us on Twitter:@visionmobile

Further reading:Mobile Industry Atlas100 million clubwww.visionmobile.com/mapswww.100millionclub.com

Documents

Developer Economics 2010