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Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Christian Rynning-Tønnesen President and CEO London, 12 November 2008

Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

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Page 1: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar

Christian Rynning-TønnesenPresident and CEO

London,12 November 2008

Page 2: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

Norske Skog Basics

Page 3: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

3

The world of Norske Skog

Skogn

SaugbrugsFollum

Golbey

Parenco Walsum

Bruck

MNI (34%)

Sing Buri

ShanghaiHebei

Albury

BoyerTasman Bio Bio

Pisa

Page 4: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

4

Our Products

▪ Standard and improved grades for daily newspapers, free newspapers, advertising supplements

▪ Second largest global producer of newsprint

▪ World-wide operations, ex. North America

Newsprint Magazine Paper

▪ Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes

▪ European operations only▪ Two different grades:

– SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

– CMR - coated paper ▪ Fifth largest global producer

Page 5: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

5

Company Overview▪ One of the world’s leading producers of newsprint and magazine paper

– 16 mills in 12 countries– Capacity (fully owned): 5.2 mill tonnes, after closures and divestment of Korean mills– Revenue (2007) ~ NOK 27.1 billion

▪ Global market share of approx. 10% for newsprint and 5% for magazine paper

Industry position 1

Standard NewsprintUncoated Magazine Paper and Other Publication Paper

Coated Magazine Paper

Note:1 Source: RISI

0

1,000

2,000

3,000Abitib

iBow

ater

UPM

Sto

ra E

nso Oji

Nors

ke S

kog

Nip

pon U

nip

ac

(kt)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

UPM

Sto

ra E

nso

M-r

eal

IP

Burg

o

Nors

ke S

kog

(kt)

No

rske S

ko

g

No

rske S

ko

g

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

No

rske S

ko

g

Page 6: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

6

Production capacity by segments

▪ Total capacity 5.2 mill. tonnes– Newsprint etc. 3.8 m.t.– Magazine 1.4 m.t.

Europe newsprint38 %

Asia newsprint13 %

Europe Magazine27 %

Australasia newsprint

16 %

South America newsprint

6 %

Page 7: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

Financial and market update

Page 8: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

8

Q3 2008:Improved result, reduced debt

▪ EBITDA NOK 712 mill – +18% Q3 vs Q2– +43% adjusted for Korea sale

▪ Net result – NOK 1.2 bn– Mainly accumulated translation

differences from Korea sale with no cash or equity impact, and unrealised losses from currency hedging

▪ Net debt reduced by NOK 3 bn by the end of Q3

– Korea cash proceeds: NOK 3.8 bn– Currency/other: NOK -0.8 bn

▪ Cash deposits NOK 5.7 bn

Mill NOK

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Q32006

Q4 Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

EBITDA ex. Korea Korea

Page 9: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

9

NOK 2.75 bn annual effect gained from the improvement program

▪ Target is NOK 3 bn in annualized improvement compared to 2005

675

45

230 1 240

1 002

712

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300

1 400

"Clean" EBITDA,quarterly average

2005

Sales pricedevelopment

Cost increases Other (incl FX,vol.adjustm+

Corp.Improvemt)

Profitability Improvement

Q3 2008

"Clean" EBITDA Q3 2008

NO

K m

illio

n

Page 10: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

10

0

50

100

150

200

250

Europe Asia Australasia SouthAmerica

Magazine

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008

NOK mill

*

Result segments (EBITDA)

*) Q3 ex Norske Skog Korea

Korea

Page 11: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

11

Newsprint EuropeEBITDA

Key figuresNOK million

2008Q3

2008Q2

2007Q3

Operating revenue 1 915 1 942 2 087

EBITDA 217 175 381

EBITDA margin % 11.3 9.0 18.3

Deliveries 1 000 ton 472 505 510

Slight improvement▪ Q3 vs Q2: Improving results due

to cost cuts and currency effects – Closing of two paper machines in

Q2 2008 important factors

▪ YTD 2008 vs 2007: Weaker result due to lower prices

▪ Demand down 3% YTD

▪ Good market balance

Germany

Price development newsprint

Source: RISI

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Jan

'98

Jan

'99

Jan

'00

Jan

'01

Jan

'02

Jan

'03

Jan

'04

Jan '0

5Ja

n '0

6Ja

n '0

7Ja

n '0

8

Average Newsprint 45 gsm Euro/t(Nom.)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

EBITDA NOK mill

Page 12: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

12

US prices have increasedsharply…

Newsprint prices 45gsm

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

jan 2005 jul 2005 jan 2006 jul 2006 jan 2007 jul 2007 jan 2008 jul 2008

Euro/tonnes

Germany UK US East

Page 13: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

13

..and newsprint prices in Europe will move up tooDevelopment in 2008:▪ Supply down by ~8 %, because of closures

and reduced imports from Canada▪ Demand down by ~3 % YTD September▪ Result: Market balance is significantly

improved▪ Norske Skog has announced 15-20 % price

increase on newsprint in Europe for 2009

Page 14: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

EBITDA NOK millEBITDA

Newsprint AsiaKey figuresNOK million

2008Q3

2008Q2

2007Q3

Operating revenue 467 1 275 1 312

EBITDA 42 134 134

EBITDA ex Korea 42 29 19

EBITDA margin % 8.9 10.5 10.2

Deliveries 1 000 ton 120 379 381

Weak result▪ Q3 vs Q2: Comparable result is better due to higher prices▪ YTD 2008 vs 2007: Price hikes has partly offset cost

increases ▪ Demand China (YTD August) +7.2%

Norske Skog Korea

Page 15: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

15

Newsprint AustralasiaEBITDA

Key figuresNOK million

2008Q3

2008Q2

2007Q3

Operating revenue 911 977 895

EBITDA 148 167 201

EBITDA margin % 16.3 17 22.5

Deliveries 1 000 ton 218 222 200

Moderately decreased result▪ Q3 vs Q2

– Reduced EBITDA due to 7% price reduction on standard newsprint in Australia from 01.07.08.

– Cost reductions mainly on energy partly offsets lower paper prices▪ YTD 2008 vs 2007: Weaker results because of lower prices▪ Demand down 7.3% YTD, mainly caused by customer inventory

changes

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

EBITDA NOK mill

Page 16: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

16

Newsprint South AmericaEBITDA

Key figuresNOK million

2008Q3

2008Q2

2007Q3

Operating revenue 364 295 318

EBITDA 87 35 46

EBITDA ex. Tax refund 50 35 46

EBITDA margin % 13.7 11.9 14.5

Deliveries 1 000 ton 77 71 80

Improved result ▪ Tax refund NOK 37 mill in Q3▪ Q3 vs Q2: Improved result due

to higher prices▪ YTD 2008 vs 2007: Weaker results

due to fibre and energy costs▪ Demand +11% YTD, increased

customer inventories▪ Tight market balance

Price development newsprint

Source: NSG

0

40

80

120

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

EBITDA NOK mill

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan

'98

Jan

'99

Jan

'00

Jan

'01

Jan

'02

Jan

'03

Jan

'04

Jan

'05

Jan

'06

Jan

'07

Jan

'08

Newsprint Brazil 48.8g (USD/mt)

Page 17: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

17

EBITDA

MagazineKey figuresNOK million

2008Q3

2008Q2

2007Q3

Operating revenue 1 856 1 642 1 719

EBITDA 201 130 138

EBITDA margin % 10.8 7.9 8.0

Deliveries 1000 ton 339 325 364

▪ Higher prices lifted result▪ Q3 vs Q2: EBITDA improved due

to price increases and currency changes

▪ YTD 2008 vs. 2007: Improved results due to higher prices

▪ SC demand: World +3.8% YTD, Europe +6.3%

▪ LWC demand: World down 1.6% YTD, Europe down 0.3%

Price development magazine

GermanyGermany

Source: RISI

0

100

200

300

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

EBITDA NOK mill

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

Jan

'98

Jan

'99

Jan

'00

Jan

'01

Jan

'02

Jan

'03

Jan

'04

Jan

'05

Jan

'06

Jan

'07

Jan

'08

Average SC Roto 56 gsm Euro/t(Nom.)Average LWC Offset 60 gsm Euro/t(N )

Page 18: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

18

Reduced net debt and improved gearing

▪ Net debt reduced by NOK 3 bn by the end of Q3

– Korea cash proceeds: NOK 3.8 bn– Currency/other: NOK -0.8 bn

▪ Gearing improved to 0.89

– Covenant on bank debt: Gearing < 1.4

▪ Total property sales of approx NOK 700 mill in 2008

12,716,9 16,419,1 17,3 15,7 15,7

0,890,84

0,96

1,05

1,121,07

0,89

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2005 2006 2007 Q12008

Q2 Q30

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

Net debt NOK bn (left axis)Gearing (right axis)

Page 19: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

19

Improved liquidity

-1,6

-3,7

-1,1 -1,1

-4,2

-0,1

-4,5

-0,2-0,6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NO

K b

n Debt maturity schedule by 30.09.2008

Cash

Debt

NOK 5.7 bn total liquidity as of September 2008

-1,1

2033

Page 20: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

20

Value of energy portfolio

▪ Portfolio:– Physical contracts in Norway

and Brazil– Financial contracts on New

Zealand

▪ Reduced values in Norwegian contract balanced by higher values of energy contracts in Brazil

NOK millions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 Q3

Page 21: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

21

▪ 1 per cent change in NOK against NSIs trade weighted currency index ~ +NOK 60 mill EBITDA per year

Impact of NOK depreciation

Q1’05

Q2’05

Q3’05

Q4’05

Q1’06

Q2’06

Q3’06

Q4’06

Q1’07

Q2’07

Q3’07

Q4’07

Q1’08

Q2’08

Q3’08

100

95

90

85

80

75

Norske Skog currency index 01.01.05-31.10.08

Page 22: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

Summary

Page 23: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

23

Meeting the recession

Consequences:▪ Declining paper

demand▪ Higher capital costs▪ Reduced costs on fibre,

energy and chemicals

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2006 2007 2008 2009

IMF-prognoses from 2 Oct 2008 onGDP-growth advanced economies

Actions:Maintain a healthy supply/demand balance

Adjust capacity as necessary

Keep strong focus on cost reductions and capital discipline

▪ Reduced GDP growth in all markets is expected

Page 24: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

24

Outlook

▪ Positive elements:– Prices increase in European newsprint for 2009 announced– Based on current price and currency conditions, prices increases

are expected in Australasia in 2009– Reduced costs expected on recovered paper and energy

▪ Risks/negative elements:– Recession will effect paper demand negatively– Currency changes (present levels are favourable)

▪ Focus:– Further increase in operating margins– Achieving NOK 3 billion improvement target by the end of 2008– Reduce net debt – Swift capacity response to demand development

Page 25: Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals and advertising purposes European operations only Two different grades: – SC - uncoated paper (supercalendered)

Deutsche Bank 6th European Paper Seminar

Christian Rynning-TønnesenPresident and CEO

London12 November 2008