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2,000,000
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Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and recoveriesTotal confirmed cases and recoveries
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Confirmed
recoveries
Confirmed
cases# of people (log scale)
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases for selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1/1 000 000 person infected
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
CAN
KOR
FRADEU
BELUSA
Days since 1 case per million
ESP# of people (log scale)
IND
mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
3. Europe: COVID-19 deaths versus South KoreaDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
SWE
KOR
Days since 1 death per million
GBR
DEU
BEL
FRA
ESP# of people (log scale)
DNK
NOR
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
4. North America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
CAN
KOR
USA
ESP
BEL
Days since 1 death per million
# of people (log scale)
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5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
0
20
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120
140
0
500
1,000
1,500
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Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
World
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Canada
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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Italy
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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United States
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Germany
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0.0
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1.0
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1.6
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0
5
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Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Belgium
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
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5. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Denmark
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
South Africa
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
1
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8
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0
20
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100
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Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
India
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Russia
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
South Korea
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
Brazil
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
6. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
SWE
QC
Days since 1 death per million
CAN
AB
BEL
BC
ON
# of people (log scale)
USA
ESP
5,000
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
7. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)
SWE
QC
Days since 1 death per million
CAN
AB
BEL
BC
ON
# of people (log scale)USA
ESP
mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor
5,000
500
50
5
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
8. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
MEX
CAN
BRA
BELPER# of people (log scale)
CHL
ESP
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
9. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, Worldometers)
MEX
Days since 1 death per million
CANBRA
BEL
PER
# of people (log scale)
CHL
ESP
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10. World: Evolution of new confirmed cases, selected countriesNew daily cases by one million population, 7-day moving average
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, Worldometers)
2020-04-15 2020-04-22 2020-04-29 2020-05-06 2020-05-13 2020-05-20 2020-05-27 2020-06-03 2020-06-10 cumulative
Brazil 8.17 11.72 22.80 31.54 42.69 68.18 80.81 115.73 126.62 3634
Sweden 48.59 56.48 59.54 50.09 55.28 50.06 49.38 79.16 83.26 4539
United States 89.64 88.04 86.13 81.75 69.52 69.68 63.58 65.75 64.28 6044
South Africa 1.59 2.72 4.13 5.92 10.28 14.28 19.11 27.91 43.11 934
Portugal 69.33 54.50 35.34 23.49 27.31 21.40 22.86 27.58 32.76 3490
Mexico 2.95 5.20 8.04 10.90 13.91 18.18 23.74 25.72 30.96 1002
United Kingdom 79.43 73.69 66.76 75.50 60.19 39.12 39.87 26.55 21.65 4274
Israel 51.11 32.96 22.05 7.86 3.93 1.96 2.08 9.64 16.14 2121
Canada 34.72 43.48 43.63 44.61 33.89 29.76 27.84 21.32 15.62 2559
Netherlands 63.90 56.21 33.28 21.15 15.90 10.39 11.10 8.11 11.38 2829
Turkey 52.79 49.60 32.04 23.98 19.26 16.05 12.21 11.22 11.20 2052
Belgium 125.35 102.50 73.59 36.02 39.44 24.68 19.83 13.47 10.90 5140
India 0.66 0.94 1.21 2.06 2.60 3.52 4.77 6.08 6.19 200
Denmark 31.54 30.36 27.03 22.94 17.98 11.10 8.95 7.18 6.04 2075
Spain 89.69 93.72 13.80 22.58 25.50 11.78 11.29 12.40 5.96 5170
Italy 60.78 52.37 38.41 25.66 18.06 12.42 8.92 6.37 4.55 3898
Germany 36.62 27.12 18.59 11.30 10.13 7.47 5.21 4.43 4.10 2228
Austria 22.13 9.35 7.57 4.48 4.97 5.65 3.78 2.86 3.71 1889
Finland 19.34 23.00 20.03 17.20 12.40 10.03 6.42 5.65 3.33 1270
Norway 17.23 15.76 9.80 7.54 4.72 2.79 3.16 2.00 3.08 1585
Switzerland 51.10 32.30 19.04 10.92 5.90 4.10 1.97 1.96 1.97 3630
South Korea 0.58 0.29 0.20 0.13 0.50 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.89 233
Japan 4.33 3.84 2.68 1.53 0.90 0.36 0.32 0.24 0.31 135
China 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53
France 110.43 48.71 22.73 16.14 7.70 6.76 2.14 19.25 -1.84 2882
11. World: Evolution of new deaths, selected countriesNew daily deaths by one million population, 7-day moving average
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, Worldometers)
2020-04-15 2020-04-22 2020-04-29 2020-05-06 2020-05-13 2020-05-20 2020-05-27 2020-06-03 2020-06-10 cumulative
Brazil 0.62 0.79 1.75 2.07 3.13 3.78 4.53 4.67 4.79 187
Mexico 0.30 0.58 0.84 1.08 1.68 2.07 2.78 3.47 4.02 119
Sweden 7.31 10.40 7.44 6.79 7.35 5.26 5.51 4.56 3.58 476
United Kingdom 11.77 11.39 16.83 8.37 6.54 5.30 3.70 4.77 2.95 606
United States 5.89 7.89 6.22 5.39 4.62 4.03 3.02 2.92 2.49 342
Canada 2.25 3.80 4.01 4.60 4.02 2.75 2.73 2.65 1.74 212
Belgium 27.12 22.46 15.27 10.33 6.21 3.78 2.64 1.95 1.32 831
Italy 9.39 8.12 6.13 4.73 3.36 2.89 1.75 1.25 1.21 564
South Africa 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.29 0.51 0.58 1.01 20
Portugal 3.07 2.61 2.63 1.62 1.20 1.23 1.30 1.27 0.70 147
France 13.75 9.11 6.02 3.76 2.76 2.30 1.01 0.92 0.64 448
Netherlands 7.45 7.73 5.52 4.14 3.01 1.56 1.03 0.89 0.55 355
Denmark 2.24 1.85 1.46 1.55 0.67 0.52 0.27 0.37 0.32 102
Switzerland 5.75 4.51 3.46 1.49 1.09 0.37 0.42 0.07 0.25 227
Germany 2.38 2.44 1.77 1.30 0.93 0.52 0.45 0.26 0.23 101
Turkey 1.20 1.45 1.19 0.85 0.62 0.46 0.35 0.30 0.23 56
India 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.16 0.17 6
Israel 0.94 0.97 0.43 0.40 0.41 0.25 0.03 0.17 0.13 35
Finland 0.83 1.99 1.47 1.19 0.83 0.52 0.23 0.21 0.08 58
Norway 1.29 0.98 0.53 0.24 0.34 0.13 0.03 0.05 0.05 44
Austria 1.90 1.86 1.11 0.44 0.25 0.14 0.19 0.40 0.05 75
Spain 11.97 9.19 7.82 4.83 2.99 0.00 0.86 0.03 0.02 580
Japan 0.06 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.02 7
South Korea 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 5
China 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2
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12. Canada: Evolution of new casesNew daily cases by one million population, 7-day moving average
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Government of Canada, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
2020-04-15 2020-04-22 2020-04-29 2020-05-06 2020-05-13 2020-05-20 2020-05-27 2020-06-03 2020-06-10 cumulative
Quebec 81.30 102.79 95.04 130.04 94.39 81.40 73.47 46.22 24.53 6286
Ontario 31.09 51.68 31.96 28.75 25.55 26.29 26.92 26.08 22.87 2259
Alberta 16.24 50.04 57.65 26.08 14.51 10.72 6.24 4.90 6.54 1665
British Columbia 6.37 7.83 8.23 4.73 3.41 2.56 2.34 2.06 1.61 526
Saskatchewan 5.35 2.68 6.94 15.70 7.91 5.23 2.07 1.22 1.34 560
Nova Scotia 35.15 32.80 23.97 9.26 3.82 3.09 1.18 0.74 0.44 1092
Manitoba 3.03 1.15 1.88 1.15 0.42 0.00 0.21 0.63 0.21 219
New-Brunswick 2.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 151
Newfounland 5.20 2.47 0.55 0.27 0.55 -0.27 0.00 0.27 0.00 500
Prince Edward Island 0.91 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 172
13. Canada: Evolution of new deathsNew daily deaths by one million population, 7-day moving average
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Government of Canada, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
2020-04-15 2020-04-22 2020-04-29 2020-05-06 2020-05-13 2020-05-20 2020-05-27 2020-06-03 2020-06-10 cumulative
Quebec 5.25 10.89 10.57 12.61 11.95 8.37 8.59 9.53 4.83 1 599
Ontario 2.27 3.70 3.83 3.99 3.17 1.80 1.77 1.23 1.59 2 174
Nova Scotia 0.29 1.32 2.35 1.91 1.47 0.88 0.29 0.15 0.29 3 64
Saskatchewan 0.12 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.37 0.12 0.24 6 11
Alberta 0.72 0.59 0.69 0.82 0.26 0.26 0.42 0.13 0.20 5 35
New-Brunswick 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 6 1
British Columbia 0.82 0.51 0.54 0.42 0.23 0.48 0.37 0.11 0.03 4 32
Manitoba 0.21 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 5
Prince Edward Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 0
Newfoundland 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 6
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-10
0
10
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
14. New York: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: May 31 to June 6)
Weekly deaths per 100 000 population
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented
During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)
COVID-19
1918 pandemic
# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020
Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in
1918, line represent start of measures in 2020
32.3
46.9
16.1
4.7
23.1
64.0
8.5
4.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths
15. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths
NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)
18.6
39.7
25.8
16.0
0.002.5
16.8
80.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths
Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of May 30)
% %
AgeAge
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-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
New York Miami Toronto Paris Rome Montreal Madrid Stockhom
Worst week Current
16. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019 from 6am to 6pm, 7 day moving average (last obs.: May 31 - June 6)
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)
Percentage points
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
17. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: June 9)
y/y change
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)
CAN
USA
GBR
DEU
Global
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-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
18. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
% change from baseline*
SWE
USA
CANITA
GBR
FRA
ESP
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020
19. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
% change from baseline*
CA
AB
QC
BC
ON
mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitormailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index
Stdev
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Lehman bankruptcy
and AIG bailout
U.S. government
credit downgrade
and Eurozone
crisis
Fear of Chinese
recession and
petrol supply
shock
COVID-19
outbreak and
OPEC/Russia oil
price war
NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada
Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the
S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.
Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,
minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian
government bond yield.
S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.
USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.
BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Variables Estimation
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.
.