Determinants of Students’ Success: the Role of Advanced Placement and Dual

Enrollment Programs Cecilia Speroni

PhD candidate, Economics and Education Teachers College, Columbia University

AERA April 10th 2010

Motivation   Advanced Placement (AP) & Dual Enrollment (DE)

programs are increasingly popular –  Allow HS students to take college-level courses and earn

college credits –  67% of public HS offer AP; 71% offer DE –  Initially limited to high-achievers, now serving a wider student

population –  Strong policy support: e.g., College Pathways Program

(Federal budget FY2011); Part of HS accountability system (e.g., FL); Private-led AP performance incentives (e.g., TX); Gates’ Foundation Early college initiative

  Limited empirical evidence on how AP and DE-takers fare in predicting students’ outcomes

Study Goal: compare AP and DE takers

  Descriptive portrait of AP and DE students in Florida

  Assess relative power of AP and DE for predicting students’ college access (PSE enroll; First PSE at 4yr college) and success (5-yr BA degree)   Heterogeneity of the effect by minority status and ability   Focus DE academic (not vocational) and AP course (not exam)

participation

Florida AP and DE Background Dual Enrollment Advanced Placement

Course experience -Actual College Course -College credit: passing grade in course

-HS “college-level” course -College credit: satisfactory score in (optional) standardized exam

Instructor qualification requirements

College faculty Public school teacher

Finance State pays for tuition, fees, and books

State pays for AP course and books -AP exam fee reimbursement for all students -AP exam performance incentives (for teachers & districts)

(Selected comparative dimensions)

Florida Administrative Data   Two public HS senior cohorts (2000 & 2001); aprox

230,000 students   Student transcripts on all courses in HS & college (till 2006)   National Student Clearinghouse data (enrollment only)   Basic demographic and standardized test scores

  Participation rate:

DE AP

6 % 14.6% 7.8 %

Students = 229,828 (100%)

No AP or DE = 72%

Descriptive Portrait of AP & DE students

Y Y

Y Y K

Y Y

Empirical Strategy   Multivariate Regression of the form:

Yi = γΑPi + φλDEi + δΑPi*DEi+ βXi + εi

  ΑP/DE: 11th or 12th grade course participation   X: student (high school) characteristics, including prior measures of

achievement (10th grade FCAT standardized scores and GPA)   High schools fixed effects

  Limitation of the Research Design: non-experimental study is unable to control for unobservable factors affecting participation.

Predictive effect of AP and DE

F F

Predictive effect of AP and DE

F F

Heterogeneity of Effect by Minority Status

  AP non-minority students are almost twice as likely to enroll in 4-yr college than their AP minority (Black & Hispanic) counterparts

Summary & Conclusions   Both AP&DE are strong predictors of students’ success   Programs are not equal predictors:

  DE are more likely to go to college than AP students   AP are more likely to go to a 4-year college   AP-DE difference in BA degree is small

  DE effect is driven by courses taken at the community college, with no effect for courses taken at HS

  Policy Implications: increase quality control for DE college credits earned at HS campus; address underrepresentation of DE first-time college students at 4-year colleges

  Future research should use experimental and/or quasi-experimental design to establish a causal relationship

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