Determinants of Post Secondary Aspirations of Secondary

School Students

Mark Bowden (with James Doughney)

Economics and Finance

The Motivation

Widening participation in university.

Low socio-economic - ethnic backgrounds?

The student’s decision.

Rational? or cultural bias.

The Objective

Using binary logit model:-

Identify the key variables

Estimate the marginal effects.

Boudon or Bourdieu?

Summary

Economic (Boudon) and Cultural (Bourdieu).

SES more important for students with ethnic background.

Access to internet appears important.

Theory

Structure: Social systems constrain individual behaviour.

– Bourdieu (1973): unconscious decisions- cultural capital

– Boudon (1973): conscious decisions- dependent on socio-economic background.

Theory (cont)

Non-English speaking- stronger support from parents

Greater proportions of females than males

Determinants

From Standardised ResidualsMean = -0.00053Std Deviation = 1.003

Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob. constant -2.712749 0.346892 -7.82015 0.000English not spoken at home 0.708341 0.146982 4.819252 0.000Socio-economic status 0.194366 0.15688 1.23895 0.215University is only for the wealthy -0.210001 0.053861 -3.898935 0.000Student attends an independent school 0.562231 0.228884 2.456399 0.014Student attends a catholic school 0.556253 0.155454 3.578241 0.000My teachers have encouraged me to go to university to do a degree

0.399635 0.05348 7.472673 0

My parents want me to do a degree course

0.566041 0.055011 10.28953 0

If I did a degree I would lose touch with my friends -0.203809 0.05781 -3.525485 0.000Internet access at home 0.739621 0.179219 4.126919 0.000Gender 0.549388 0.126725 4.335279 0.000

Goodness of FitH-L Statistic p = 0.3973 Andrews Statistic p = 0.5408

Marginal Effects

Parent completed university 2.9%

English not spoken at home 11.8%

Catholic School 9.1%

Independent School 8.9%

Views of Teachers 7%

Views of Parents 10%

Marginal Effects

Internet at home 14.9%

Female 9.8%

Lose touch with friends -3.6%

Only for the wealthy -3.7%

Revised Model

From Standardised ResidualsMean = -0.0028Std Deviation = 1.009

Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob. constant -1.539608 0.200771 -7.668462 0High SES english not spoken at home 0.699615 0.182753 3.82819 0.0001Low SES english not spoken at home 0.36486 0.091825 3.973423 0.0001High SES english spoken at home 0.063325 0.102458 0.618058 0.5365University is only for the wealthy -0.122323 0.031204 -3.920074 0.0001Student attends an independent school 0.319496 0.127884 2.498337 0.0125Student attends a catholic school 0.296114 0.088659 3.339904 0.0008My teachers have encouraged me to go to university to do a degree

0.225968 0.030958 7.29919 0

My parents want me to do a degree course

0.329027 0.031786 10.35115 0

If I did a degree I would lose touch with my friends -0.119947 0.033608 -3.568985 0.0004Internet access at home 0.440828 0.105526 4.177416 0Gender 0.319447 0.073527 4.344606 0.000

Goodness of FitH-L Statistic p = 0.4173 Andrews Statistic p = 0.61.30

Marginal Effects

Not English & high SES 13.6%

Not English & low SES 7.7%

English at home & high SES 1.4%

Model Specification

Without the socio-economic status variable Goodness of Fit tests rejected at 10%.

Omitted Variable: School results; other variables?

Dep=0 Dep=1 TotalP(Dep=1)<=0.5 192 95 287P(Dep=1)>0.5 288 1129 1417Total 480 1224 1704Correct 192 1129 1321% Correct 40 92.24 77.52% Incorrect 60 7.76 22.48

Acknowledgements

Denise Bett, manager of the former Equity and Social Justice Branch, Victoria University and leader of the Aspirations Online Project Team

Kate O’Rourke, Kathryn O’Rourke, Katia Honour, and Peter O’Callaghan, Aspirations Project Officers

References

Boudon, R. (1974) Education, opportunities, and social inequality; changing prospects in Western society, New York, Wiley.

Bourdieu, P. (1973) Cultural Reproduction and Social Reproduction. In Brown, R. (Ed.) Knowledge, education, and cultural change : papers in the sociology of education. London, Tavistock Publications Limited.

Foskett, N. & Hemsley-Brown, J. (2001) Choosing Futures: Young people's decision-making in education, training and careers markets, London, Routledge Falmer.

References

Marks, G. N., Cresswell, J. & Ainley, J. (2006) Explaining Socioeconomic Inequalities in Student Achievement: The role of home and school factors. Educational Research and Evaluation, 12, 105 - 128.

Nash, R. (1990) Bourdieu on Education and Social and Cultural Reproduction. British Journal of Sociology of Education, 11, 431-447.

Nash, R. (2005) Cognitive habitus and collective intelligence: concepts for the explanation of inequality of educational opportunity. Journal of Education Policy, 20, 3-21.