Designing the future.Orienting scenarios and cultural prototypes

Ezio Manzini, CIRIS Politecnico di Milano

in turbulent times, the only way to forecast the future is to try to design it.

What does it mean to design the future? Who deigns the future?

the present contains many possible futures.

With our actions we give a “possible future” more or less possibility to influence what will be the “actual future”.

to design the future means to make some strategic moves ...

… to give a favourite possible future more potential to influence the actual future that will appear.

the future is open, but its building materials and building forces are around us just now, in the present.

the problem for us is to recognise these building materials and the drivers of change.

to design the future does not mean to invent the future …

… it means to re-orient and re-conceptualise some existing drivers of change.

specific future-orienting design tools:

> scenario building

> cultural prototyping

“scenario building” as a new design activity

which kind of scenarios?

policy orienting (POS)design orienting (DOS)

how a scenario is done?

1. vision2. motivation3. proposal

experiences …

3 research on scenario building and solutions development ….

1. Sustainable Households

(the Sushouse Project)

funded by the Environment and Climate Research Programme of the European Community

2. Highly Customised and Contextualised Solutions

(the HiCS Project)

funded by the Growth Programme of the European Community

3. The Chinese Network on Design for Sustainability

(the Leapfrog Project)

funded by the HK Polytechnic University

the present.

from theindustrial societyto themature industrial societyand to thenetwork society

(… two steps in two decades !)

industrial society.

“think product!”

(…. and services will follow)

mature industrial society.

“think service!”

(…. and products will follow)

Service: a performance that some people do for the utility, satisfaction and the support of other people’s activities

(…there are marketable and non-marketable performances)

Out- sourcing: to buy on the market a service that, before, has been delivered in a non-market form of economy

(…the marketisation of private spaces and times)

network society.

“think nets!”

(…. and products, services and systems will follow)

… for the network society, see:

M. Castells, The rise of the network society

network society = a service economy + a high degree of connectivity

connectivity.

Connectivity: the quantity and quality of manageable interactions

connectivity as heat:

the “melting” of the traditional forms of organisation.

in a quasi-fluid world ….

1.from “value chains” to “value constellations”

traditionally ideas follows organisations

todayorganisations follows ideas

2.from “products” to “events”

traditionally products are “things”

todayproducts are “events”and companies are “dynamic

system organisers”

services and connectivity

transparency and permeability

(… from services as interfaces to

whole companies as services)

systems and connectivity

flexibility and re-configurability

(… from system analysis to

system design)

designers’ role in the network society ?

… solution promoters and scenario builders

system innovation in the network society ...

the system innovation as the result of a strategic conversation …

… the strategic conversation as the

tool to enable different actors to converge on the same shared vision

scenarios (in the network society) ...

… to generate shared visions

… to facilitate solution oriented partnerships

sustainable scenarios ?

… evolving visions of wellbeing

context-based wellbeing

wellbeing = services + common goods + ecology of times

criteria for sustainability

1. low energy-material intensity: it is related to the consumption of environmental resources for ‘unit of service’; it is mainly a technical issue

criteria for sustainability

2. high regenerative potentiality: it is related to the capability to improve the quality of the contexts; it is a technical and socio-cultural issue

how to imagine meta-scenarios based on regenerative solutions?

new attitudes towards:

1. care and user empowerment enabling vs. relieving 2. social relationships and community empowerment collective vs. individual

meta-scenarios outlines

Relieving Enabling

Collective

Individual

No-careRelieving-individual solutions

D.I.Y.+Enabling-individual solutions

i

Thank you!Relieving-collective solutions i

Me&YouEnabling-collective solutions

solutions outlines

Relieving Enabling

Collective

Individual

(No-care)

Inertial scenarioNO sustainable solutions

( D.I.Y.+)

Sustainable solutions as (individual) enabling tools

i

Sustainable solutions aseco-efficient full-services

(Thank you!)

i

Sustainable solutions as(socialised) enabling platform

(Me&You)