DESIGN OF THE HAR SURVEY

HOW AMERICA RESPONDSA Survey Project at the Institute for Social Research

The University of Michigan

Beginning on the afternoon of September 11, a multidisciplinary group of ISR researchers assembled to consider how they could contribute to an understanding of the impact of the attacks on the World Trade Center.

The group included economists, political scientists, psychologists, sociologists, demographers, and survey methodologists

They decided that fielding a survey to measure attitudes and behaviors and how they were related – and disseminating the findings widely – would be an appropriate and useful contribution.

DESIGN OF THE HAR SURVEY

Design discussions focused on 4 areas:

1. INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS

2. HYPOTHESIS FORMATION

3. INSTRUMENTATION

4. SAMPLE DESIGN


INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS

A large number of media polls would provide quick snapshots of reactions to current events

Their primary focus would be on telephone respondents, without much attention to families and children

Their data would be under-analyzed

ISR could do better than this by focusing on:

Longitudinal analysis (past and future)

Families and children

Multidisciplinary structure and analysis

Multivariate analysis


HYPOTHESIS FORMATION

Focus would be on:• psychological well being• political attitudes• social interactions and attitudes• behavioral intentions regarding the

economy

H: Symptoms of stress would increase in both the short and longer term

H: There would be a surge in patriotism and feelings of isolation

H: Support for restrictions in civil liberties would increase in exchange for greater personal security

H: Stereotyping of minority groups would increase, especially for groups connected to the events

H: Consumer buying behavior would suffer from the short term shocks, and uncertainty and pessimism would increase


INSTRUMENTATION

An emphasis was placed on using items from past surveys to produce longitudinal trend data (Oklahoma City, invasion of Iraq, Kennedy assassination)

A CATI application was designed to facilitate rapid data collection and analysis, as well as to provide for appropriate branching and randomization patterns for questions.


SAMPLE DESIGN

A list-assisted sample would be drawn for a national sample of telephone households

The goal would be 750 interviews with a response rate of 60% or greater

Recontact information would be obtained for future waves of interviewing


FIELD WORKInterviewing began on Saturday evening, September 15, after a day of training

The bulk of interviewing was completed by October 8, and initial results appeared in press releases shortly thereafter, based on 668 interviews

To date, 752 interviews have been completed for a response rate of 60%

RESULTS FROM THE HAR SURVEY

The analysis has focused on four main areas:

1. Reactions to the attacks

2. Psychological responses and coping

3. Attitudes about Patriotism and Civil Liberties

4. Economic Attitudes and Behavior

REACTIONS TO THE ATTACKS

How Did Americans First Learn about the Attacks?

46%

20%18%

13%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Television Conversation Radio Phone call Other

Form of Communication

% L

earn

ing

Th

is W

ay

Americans Followed The News about the Attacks Closely

How Closely Have You Been Following the News about the Recent Terrorist Attacks on New York and Washington D.C.?

Very Closely66%

Somewhat Closely

27%

A Little5%

Not Closely at All2%

Thinking about Possible Explanations for the Attacks

83%

64% 64% 62% 62%

52% 51%

24%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Osam

a bi

n La

den

We

Suppo

rt Is

rael

A Fe

w Cra

zy P

eopl

e

Terro

rists

She

ltere

d in

Cou

ntrie

s

U.S. In

terve

ntio

n in

the

Persi

an G

ulf

Isla

m/C

hris

tiani

ty Con

flict

We

Do Not

Sup

port

Pales

tine

Human

Nat

ure

It's G

od's

Will

Possible Explanation Offered

% A

gre

ein

g w

ith P

oss

ible

E

xpla

na

tion

Attention to the News Is Related to Agreement with Some Explanations

92%

69%68%

55%

22%

10%

84%

56%

65%

53%

30%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Osama binLaden

TerroristsSheltered inCountries

We SupportIsrael

We Do NotSupport

Palestine

Human Nature God's Will

Possible Explanation Offered

% A

gree

ing

with

Pos

sibl

e E

xpla

natio

n

Following News VeryClosely

Following NewsSomewhat or LessClosely

How Do the September 11 Attacks Compare to Other Events?

56%

29%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pearl Harbor Assassination of JFK Oklahoma City Bombing

% A

gre

ein

g T

his

Is

a G

oo

d C

om

par

iso

n

The Respondents’ Age Affects Which Comparisons They Draw

54%

30%

80%

56%

26%

65%67%

38%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Pearl Harbor Assassination of JFK Oklahoma City Bombing

Comparative Event

% A

gree

ing

to C

ompa

rison

Under 30

30-59

60 and over

The Attacks Have Affected People’s Sense of Safety And Security

How Much Has the Attack Shaken Your Personal Sense of Safety and Security?

A Great Deal20%

A Good Amount29%

Not Too Much37%

Not at All14%

Attention to the News Is Related to a Lowered Sense of Safety

% A

ffec

ted

56%

44%

34%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

A Great Deal/A Good Amount Not Too Much/Not at All

How Much Has the Attack Shaken Your Own Personal Sense of Security?

Following NewsVery Closely

Following NewsSomewhatClosely or Less

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO THE ATTACKS AND COPING MECHANISMS

How Are Americans Reacting to the Attacks?

How Often Have You Felt This Way in the Past Week?

89%

66% 61%51% 47%

29%

11%

34% 38%48% 52%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Type of Symptom Experienced

% E

xperiencin

g S

ym

pto

m

None or AlmostNone of the Time

At Least Some ofthe Time

Personal Sense of Safety and Security Is Related to Symptoms of Depression

22%

26%

21% 21%17%

21%

13%

39%

11%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0-1 2 3 4 5-6

Number of Symptoms Experienced

% E

xperiencin

g S

ym

pto

m

Sense of PersonalSafety/Security Shakenat Least a Good Amount

Sense of PersonalSafety/Security ShakenNot Too Much or Less

Comparison of Depressive Symptoms over Time

How Often Have You Felt This Way in the Past Week?

41%

54%

14% 12%

50%54%

63%

51%

37%

23% 24%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

TroubleConcentrating

Not HopefulAbout Future

Felt Fearful Felt Depressed Restless Sleep

Type of Symptom Experienced

ACL 1986

ACL 1989

NCS 1990

HAR 2001

Depression Levels Differ between Races

2.62.8

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

White Black Hispanic

Race

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of S

ympt

oms

(Six

Tot

al)

Depression Levels Decrease with Age, Especially for Men

2.3 2.4

1.7

3.23.0 2.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Under 30 30-59 60 and over

Age Group

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of S

ympt

oms

(Six

Tot

al)

Males

Females

Depression Levels by Gender and Race

2.1

2.92.4

3.3

2.6

3.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Males Females

Ave

rage

Num

ber

of S

ympt

oms

(Six

Tot

al)

White

Black

Hispanic

What Did Americans Do to Cope with the Attacks?

97%

82%

64%

49%42%

27%

18%

9% 7%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Strategies for Coping with the Attack

% U

sed

Co

pin

g S

trat

egy

Comparison of Coping Strategy Use over Time

69%73%

68%

6%

82%

12%

80%

16%

97%

88%

14%

76%71%

87%

76%73%

64%

3%

25%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Not Let It BotherYou

Tried to Put It outof Mind

Drank Liquor,Took Pills,Medicines

Kept Busy DoingOther Things

Strategies for Coping with the Attacks

% U

sed

Cop

ing

Str

ateg

y

NSBA 1980

NSBA 1987

NSBA 1988

NSBA 1992

HAR 2001

Another Comparison of Coping Strategy Use over Time

24%

3%9%

97%

19%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Talked w ith Friends orFamily

Talked w ith Priest,Minister, Rabbi, or Pastor

Talked w ith Doctor orOther Health Professional

Coping Strategy

% U

sed

Str

ateg

y

DAS 1995

HAR 2001

Coping Strategies by Race

97%

80%

93%

51%

62%

49%

24%

39%

6%

17%

90%

60%

28%

51%

17%20%

100%93%

85%

55% 53%

42%

8%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Talked w ithFriends or

Family

PrayedAlone or

w ith Others

Kept BusyDoing Other

Things

Went toPlace ofWorship

Tried to PutIt out of

Mind

Not Let ItBother You

Talked w ithMinister,Priest,

Rabbi, orPastor

Ate MoreThan Usual

Strategy Used to Cope with the Attacks

% U

sed

Str

ate

gy

White

Black

Hispanic

Coping Strategies by Gender

73%

58%

39%

50%

25%

12%5%

90%

70%

57%

24%

96%98%

28%

9%

35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Talkedwith

Friends orFamily

PrayedAlone or

withOthers

Kept BusyDoingOther

Things


Not Let ItBother You

Tried toPut It out of

Mind

Talkedwith

Minister,Priest,

Rabbi, orPastor

Ate MoreThanUsual

Strategy to Cope with the Attacks

% U

sed

Str

ate

gy

Males

Females

Coping Strategies by Age

69%

46%

34%40%

23%

8%

63%

23%

6%13%

42%

96%

73%

18%

64%

84%

98%

45%

5%

31%

46%

62%

85%94%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Talkedwith

Friends orFamily

PrayedAlone or

withOthers

Kept BusyDoingOther

Things


Not Let ItBother

You

Tried toPut It outof Mind

Talkedwith

Minister,Priest,

Rabbi, orPastor

Ate MoreThanUsual

Strategy to Cope with the Attacks

% U

sed

Str

ateg

y

Under 30

30-59

60 and over

ATTITUDES ABOUT PATRIOTISM AND

CIVIL LIBERTIES

Willingness to Give Up Civil Liberties Is Negatively Related to Personal

Sense of Safety and Security

76% 75%

69%66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

A Great Deal A Good Amount Not Too Much Not at All

How Much Has the Attack Shaken Your Personal Sense of Safety and Security?

% W

illin

g to

Giv

e U

p S

ome

Civ

il Li

bert

ies

Americans Support Measures to Reduce Terrorist Acts

87% 87%

67%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

More Uniformed Policein Public Places

Give U.S. Military NewsPowers for Anti-

terrorism

Increasing Surveillanceof Citizens

More RandomSearches in Public

Places

Measure to Reduce Terrorism

% S

uppo

rtin

g M

easu

re

Favorability Assessments of American Ethnic Groups Are Higher than Recently

63%58%

72%70%66% 64%

79%

63% 63% 61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AfricanAmericans

HispanicAmericans

Asian Americans

White Americans

Ethnic Group

% S

up

ply

ing

"P

osi

tive

" R

atin

g o

n F

ee

ling

T

he

rmo

me

ter

NES 1998

NES 2000

HAR 2001

Favorability of Ethnic Groups in the United States and Overseas

69%

46% 46% 46%

27%24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

JewishAmericans

MuslimAmericans

ArabAmericans

Israelis Palestinians Arabs in theMiddle East

Ethnic Group

% S

up

ply

ing

"P

osi

tive

" R

atin

g o

n F

ee

ling

T

he

rmo

me

ter

Blacks Report Lower Favorability Ratings of Ethnic Groups than Whites

63%74%

64% 59% 58%

41% 39%

21% 19%

77%

38%

70%58% 57%

37% 37%

23% 22%10%15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Africa

n Am

erica

ns

White

Americ

ans

Jewish

Am

erica

ns

Hispan

ic Am

erica

ns

Asian A

mer

icans

Mus

lim A

meric

ans

Israeli

s

Arab A

mer

icans

Palesti

nians

Arabs i

n Midd

le Eas

t

Ethnic Group

% S

up

ply

ing

"P

osi

tive

" R

atin

g o

n F

ee

ling

T

he

rmo

me

ter

White

Black

Strong Relationship between Education and Ethnic Group

Favorability

65%

51%

42%46%

37%

25% 25% 25%

12% 9%

78%70% 70% 67% 66%

46% 45% 45%

27% 24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White

Americ

ans

Africa

n Am

erica

ns

Jewish

Am

erica

ns

Hispan

ic Am

erica

ns

Asian A

mer

icans

Israeli

s

Mus

lim A

meric

ans

Arab A

mer

icans

Palesti

nians

Arabs i

n Midd

le Eas

t

Ethnic Group

% S

up

ply

ing

a "

Po

sitiv

e"

Ra

ting

on

Fe

elin

g

Th

erm

om

ete

r

High School

Some College

ECONOMIC ATTITUDES

AND BEHAVIOR

Consumer sentiment and behavioral intentions regarding the economy were negatively impacted by the attacks

Americans Expect Unemployment to Increase

In the Next 12 Months Do You Think That There Will Be More Unemployment Than Now, about the Same, or Less?

More Unemployment

61%

Don't Know/NA2%

Less Unemployment

11%

About the Same26%

Do Americans Think This Is a Good Time to Buy Durable Goods?

Good55%

Pro/Con6%

Bad33%

Don't Know/Other

6%

Index of Consumer Sentiment declined from the previous month, and its values were related to a Sense of

Personal Safety

62.4

77.5

84.7

52.3

66.9

79.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

A Great Deal A Good Amount Not Too Much/Not at All

How Much Has the Attack Shaken Your Own Personal Sense of Security

Inde

x V

alue

Index of ConsumerSentiment

Index of ConsumerExpectations

What Would Americans Do with an Additional $1,000 Tax Rebate?

Increase Saving37%

Increase Spending

15%

Will Not Get Rebate

2%

Pay Off Debt46%

Consumers See Stock Market Opportunities in the Next Year

Over the Next Year or So, Do You Think It Will Be a Good Time to Put Money into the Stock Market, Take Money out, or Neither?

Put Money In46%

Take Money Out9%

Neither45%

Documents

DESIGN OF THE HAR SURVEY